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  1. #3541
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    Aug 2009
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    Bloomington, IL
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    4,584

  2. #3542
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    Jul 2011
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    Chicago
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    Yelich getting that triggered is interesting, why is he getting so defensive?

  3. #3543
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    Jan 2006
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    12,866
    I love it! Any signs of cheating is getting attacked this offseason. About time people started fighting back.

  4. #3544
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    Sep 2007
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    Addison, IL
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    22,147
    MLB reportedly changing the rule of IL stints for pitchers and position players.

    Position players will be a minimum 10-day IL stint, and pitchers will be a minimum 15-day IL stint

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  5. #3545
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    Jul 2018
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    4,114
    If Cubs are truly interested in resigning NC and sign Shogo, then IMO they're definitely moving one of Heyward or Schwarber..
    Why I think Almora was mentioned as possibly returning

    I know we're all thinking when Theo and Jed says that they would consider moving pieces from that 2016 core group, we all assume it means Bryant and Contreras because they have the most value in return..
    But
    Thinking about this today, I can see them probably meaning trading Russell Almora and/or Schwarber as that core group to be traded and holding onto Contreras and Bryant at least another year

  6. #3546
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    Feb 2008
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    Someone posted Yelichís splits home and away recently (maybe it was Miller vs wrigley field), either way, they were damning and he should probably shut up.

  7. #3547
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    May 2012
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    936
    I still haven't seen the apologies for guys saying Javy could never be a major leaguer, that Addison Russell was better, that Jorge Soler was the safest prospect we had, and a thousand other things that were wrong. I haven't seen admissions of guilt or gnashing of teeth that so many people whiffed on the Heyward signing. It's a message board. People are wrong all the time. Some subsets justify all the times they missed with "no one could have known, or it was the best choice at the time, etc" , but in the end, they were still wrong. Hell, I was told 49 times last year this was a first place team that was definitely making the playoffs when I pointed out problems. Maybe we should calm it down on expecting people to admit they're wrong until it's far more common.

  8. #3548
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    Nov 2014
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    10,393

    2019 - 2020 Off Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jfoley89 View Post
    I still haven't seen the apologies for guys saying Javy could never be a major leaguer, that Addison Russell was better, that Jorge Soler was the safest prospect we had, and a thousand other things that were wrong. I haven't seen admissions of guilt or gnashing of teeth that so many people whiffed on the Heyward signing. It's a message board. People are wrong all the time. Some subsets justify all the times they missed with "no one could have known, or it was the best choice at the time, etc" , but in the end, they were still wrong. Hell, I was told 49 times last year this was a first place team that was definitely making the playoffs when I pointed out problems. Maybe we should calm it down on expecting people to admit they're wrong until it's far more common.
    Itís not a matter of believing it before and now realizing it was wrong. Itís a matter of the person still doubling down and tripling down on the wrong opinion now despite all the evidence that it was ******** and refusing to defend it. Support the opinion or own that it is/was wrong. Pick one or the other. Either you believe it or you donít.

    I donít know who said Javy wasnít a major leaguer or that Soler was the best prospect. Those would have been unpopular takes. I thought Addi was going to be better than Javy. Obviously that was wrong. I liked the Heyward deal. I still like the process that led to it, unfortunately those deals donít always work out as expected. There wasnít any sign that Heyward would forget how to hit as soon as he got here. Obviously the deal has resulted in a bust. Anyone who is sharing opinions will share some that turn out bad. Thatís ok. We just donít have to stick with those bad opinions after theyíve been proven wrong.

    Nobody is asking for apologies. I think we can be adult enough to either admit we were wrong or to defend our opinions. Thatís not a big ask.
    Last edited by CP_414; 11-16-2019 at 12:54 AM.

  9. #3549
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    Dec 2010
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    26,406
    Quote Originally Posted by jfoley89 View Post
    I still haven't seen the apologies for guys saying Javy could never be a major leaguer, that Addison Russell was better, that Jorge Soler was the safest prospect we had, and a thousand other things that were wrong. I haven't seen admissions of guilt or gnashing of teeth that so many people whiffed on the Heyward signing. It's a message board. People are wrong all the time. Some subsets justify all the times they missed with "no one could have known, or it was the best choice at the time, etc" , but in the end, they were still wrong. Hell, I was told 49 times last year this was a first place team that was definitely making the playoffs when I pointed out problems. Maybe we should calm it down on expecting people to admit they're wrong until it's far more common.
    No one needs to apologize for being wrong about stuff. Everyone is wrong all the time, especially fans. What would be frustrating is if someone still argued Russell was better than Javy, or that Heyward has totally been worth his contract. That's a more close comparison to someone who still thinks Darvish's problems were being a mental midget. We know it's not true, or at the very least, that there are multiple more reasonable explanations for his struggles since the 2017 world series (injuries & mechanical problems mostly).

    No one thinks Jon Lester is a mental midget. Guy can't throw to first base. It's just a bad habit that he has and now he can't shake for whatever reason. For a year and a half, Darvish was injured and barely playing and it took him awhile to get his command and mechanics straightened out because he developed bad habits. He sucked briefly because baseball is hard.
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 11-16-2019 at 12:56 AM.

  10. #3550
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    There wasnít any sign that Heyward would forget how to hit as soon as he got here. .
    Heyward's OPS in 2014 was 735. And realistically his numbers, other than his rookie year, aren't particularly awe inspiring for an Outfielder.

    Theo paid big money for plus defense, quality base running, and the hope more power could be extracted from his large physique. Considering all the small players that have slugged over the past few years, while Heyward still can't, hopefully scouts and executives begin to focus a lot less on body type when projecting slugging.

    Also getting back to the Javy extension talk, I would feel alright going seven years. Baez turns 27 next month. For the first four to five years you probably get fair value. The last few will likely be a struggle between the bat speed starting to decline, combined with the o-swing percentage probably still being horrible.

  11. #3551
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prior22 View Post
    Heyward's OPS in 2014 was 735. And realistically his numbers, other than his rookie year, aren't particularly awe inspiring for an Outfielder.

    Theo paid big money for plus defense, quality base running, and the hope more power could be extracted from his large physique. Considering all the small players that have slugged over the past few years, while Heyward still can't, hopefully scouts and executives begin to focus a lot less on body type when projecting slugging.

    Also getting back to the Javy extension talk, I would feel alright going seven years. Baez turns 27 next month. For the first four to five years you probably get fair value. The last few will likely be a struggle between the bat speed starting to decline, combined with the o-swing percentage probably still being horrible.
    Heyward's OPS is the wrong stat to use because, as has been argued with you on countless occasions, it puts too much weight on slugging percentage, and not enough on on base percentage. He was a 121 wRC+ hitter, or a hitter who produced at 20% above the league average. Combine that with elite defense and base running, and he'd been a 4-6 WAR player multiple seasons in his career. There was no sign he was going to go from being an above average hitter that he'd been to that point in his career, to a terrible-bad one.

    Whether or not they thought they could add power to him is all conjecture. It's not what they needed for him to be worth the contract, they just needed him to be what he'd been before, which seemed like a safe bet given his large career sample and age.

    As for Javy, you forgot to mention declining defense/baserunning
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 11-16-2019 at 01:28 AM.

  12. #3552
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    Nov 2014
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    10,393

    2019 - 2020 Off Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    Heyward's OPS is the wrong stat to use because, as has been argued with you on countless occasions, it puts too much weight on slugging percentage, and not enough on on base percentage. He was a 121 wRC+ hitter, or a hitter who produced at 20% above the league average. Combine that with elite defense and base running, and he'd been a 4-6 WAR player multiple seasons in his career. There was no sign he was going to go from being an above average hitter that he'd been to that point in his career, to a terrible-bad one.

    Whether or not they thought they could add power to him is all conjecture. It's not what they needed for him to be worth the contract, they just needed him to be what he'd been before, which seemed like a safe bet given his large career sample and age.

    As for Javy, you forgot to mention declining defense/baserunning
    Yep. I agree with all of this including the Javy part. Iím ok with 7/125-135ish, but Iíd rather give Bryant 8/240 than Javy 7/135. You have to be at least a little nervous giving Javy that money when so much of his value is based on defense/baserunning, skills that donít normally age well and he isnít an obp threat. Isnít that the lesson learned from the Heyward deal? Be careful on mega year deals to players with value heavily dependent upon defense/baserunning skill.
    Last edited by CP_414; 11-16-2019 at 01:56 AM.

  13. #3553
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    Heyward's OPS is the wrong stat to use because, as has been argued with you on countless occasions, it puts too much weight on slugging percentage, and not enough on on base percentage. He was a 121 wRC+ hitter, or a hitter who produced at 20% above the league average. Combine that with elite defense and base running, and he'd been a 4-6 WAR player multiple seasons in his career. There was no sign he was going to go from being an above average hitter that he'd been to that point in his career, to a terrible-bad one.

    Whether or not they thought they could add power to him is all conjecture. It's not what they needed for him to be worth the contract, they just needed him to be what he'd been before, which seemed like a safe bet given his large career sample and age.

    As for Javy, you forgot to mention declining defense/baserunning
    Other than Heyward's rookie year his OBP's weren't elite. And none of his slugging percentages are particularly impressive for an Outfielder.

    Also there's always going to be a part of me that questions the validity of WAR. Determining the value of someone's defense and base running is a lot more difficult than hitting. And while I understand the need to try to quantify overall value I doubt base running and defensive based WAR are as accurate as the various offensive metrics.

    As for the adding of slugging there were swing tweaks which took place prior to 2016, which I believe included more of an upper cut. That strikes me as trying to add more slugging since you're trying to hit the ball in the air more often via the upper cut.

    Call me old school but I would build a team around bat first hitters, with my only exceptions being Catcher and Shortstop. The amount of extra outs created, as well as opportunities for outs missed, in my opinion is easily superseded by the offensive output. Especially if you can find a few Jeff McNeil caliber hitters for your team. Hitters that are that adept at making quality contact and not striking out are becoming more and more rare in this age of high velocity and swing/miss.

  14. #3554
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    Dec 2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfoley89 View Post
    I still haven't seen the apologies for guys saying Javy could never be a major leaguer, that Addison Russell was better, that Jorge Soler was the safest prospect we had, and a thousand other things that were wrong. I haven't seen admissions of guilt or gnashing of teeth that so many people whiffed on the Heyward signing. It's a message board. People are wrong all the time. Some subsets justify all the times they missed with "no one could have known, or it was the best choice at the time, etc" , but in the end, they were still wrong. Hell, I was told 49 times last year this was a first place team that was definitely making the playoffs when I pointed out problems. Maybe we should calm it down on expecting people to admit they're wrong until it's far more common.
    I apologize. I was all in on AR and thought that Baez was way to wild. He still scares me but he is clearly a very good major leaguer.

  15. #3555
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    Dec 2010
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    26,406
    Quote Originally Posted by Prior22 View Post
    Other than Heyward's rookie year his OBP's weren't elite. And none of his slugging percentages are particularly impressive for an Outfielder.

    Also there's always going to be a part of me that questions the validity of WAR. Determining the value of someone's defense and base running is a lot more difficult than hitting. And while I understand the need to try to quantify overall value I doubt base running and defensive based WAR are as accurate as the various offensive metrics.

    As for the adding of slugging there were swing tweaks which took place prior to 2016, which I believe included more of an upper cut. That strikes me as trying to add more slugging since you're trying to hit the ball in the air more often via the upper cut.

    Call me old school but I would build a team around bat first hitters, with my only exceptions being Catcher and Shortstop. The amount of extra outs created, as well as opportunities for outs missed, in my opinion is easily superseded by the offensive output. Especially if you can find a few Jeff McNeil caliber hitters for your team. Hitters that are that adept at making quality contact and not striking out are becoming more and more rare in this age of high velocity and swing/miss.
    I said Heyward was an above average hitter, not an elite one, so no, his slugging and on base percentages were never elite, but he was generally an above average-good hitter doing what he did. He makes lots of contact and did get on base at a good clip. He was measurably better than he has been with the Cubs, which has been the problem. It's not that he "failed to improve his power numbers" it's that he declined a lot from the hitter he was before.

    You're welcome to your opinions/perspectives of course, you don't have to embrace WAR and other metrics if you choose not to, that's a completely different argument, but you still must respect the fact that the MLB, and legitimate baseball minds that are being paid by MLB organizations have done just that, or they wouldn't pay the kinds of guys the kind of money that they do. You don't have to like it, but you can't be dismissive with it either.

    Defense or offense, I don't really care where our team is great. The 2016 Cubs had a great core of position players, but they weren't really so much an elite offensive team (they were good, don't get me wrong), but they were a really great defensive team. Whether you're great at preventing runs or scoring a lot of runs, just give me 8 good position players with good pitchers and you'll win lots of games.
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 11-16-2019 at 08:14 AM.

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