2019 - 2020 Off Season Thread

[rcal10]

What do you think Rendon will get this winter?

Well if we are using Machado as gospel, then something like $30M a year, and maybe a little more than that. Maybe even $32M a year.
But if you are considering Bryant, you have to factor in paying him before he is a free agent. Even if we want to give him $31M a year for the 5 years after he loses control from the Cubs, you are still at 7/$198M. Or, if he went to 8 years it would be 8/$229.
Again, maybe after a year of $18M and another at $25M he signs a larger 6 year deal. Maybe he gets 6/$200M. So he ends up with 8/$243M. Good for him. He bets on himself and wins. But if he wants a sure deal now, he does need to discount it some. Or why would the Cubs consider signing him now? He loses $14M for the security of knowing he will get paid a lot of money for the next 8 years.

[CP_414]

I don't think KB now is as good as Rendon. I'm guessing he gets 30-33/year. What do you think a 30 FA 3B averaging between 4-5 wins per year would get on the open market?

That’s not the point. I want to know what rcal thinks Rendon will get on the market this winter. Most seem to think Rendon will be between 7/210 and 8/240 as a 30 year old 3b. So even if you think Rendon is the better player you’d be saying that in a market where Rendon gets 7/210-8/240ish and Machado gets 10/300 as a 26 year old 3b that Bryant can’t get $150 million in free agency as a 30 year old 3b to exceed that offer. That’s not realistic to me. It’s not about Bryant being better or worse, it’s about how much better or worse does he think Bryant is.

I disagree that 4-5 WAR is Bryant’s limit or his normal now. He was 4.8 this year and it was dragged down by his willingness to spend so much time in the outfield. As a full-time 3b he would have exceeded 5 wins in 2019. He was 6-8 between 2015-2017. He was dominating in 2018 prior to his injury and clearly wasn’t right after that. I reject the premise that he’s a 4-5 win player.

[CP_414]

Well if we are using Machado as gospel, then something like $30M a year, and maybe a little more than that. Maybe even $32M a year.
But if you are considering Bryant, you have to factor in paying him before he is a free agent. Even if we want to give him $31M a year for the 5 years after he loses control from the Cubs, you are still at 7/$198M. Or, if he went to 8 years it would be 8/$229.
Again, maybe after a year of $18M and another at $25M he signs a larger 6 year deal. Maybe he gets 6/$200M. So he ends up with 8/$243M. Good for him. He bets on himself and wins. But if he wants a sure deal now, he does need to discount it some. Or why would the Cubs consider signing him now? He loses $14M for the security of knowing he will get paid a lot of money for the next 8 years.

So if Rendon gets 32 per year for 7 years that’s 7/224. In a market where 30 yo Rendon gets 7/224 can 30 year old Bryant beat 5/150?

If Bryant signs now instead of as a free agent he’s giving up years. What I estimated as a fair deal (8/240ish) is a discount. By signing an 8 year deal now, he’s covering 6 years of free agency rather than the 7-8 Rendon can get if he wants it or the 10 that Machado got. That’s a discount.

For him to exceed 7/190 he’d only have to beat $150ish as a FA. I think he should easily be able to do that. I’m not an agent, but Id advise him to pass on that.

[jfoley89]

And I don't mind 8/240, but that's franchise crippling if you're getting an injured 4 win player. I understand you reject it, but we haven't seen better from him in 2 years. I don't want to pay 2016 Kris Bryant prices for 2019 Bryant. Punt it a year if you think he's going to return to those levels, unless you think he lost 1 or 2 WAR playing in the OF

[CP_414]

And I don't mind 8/240, but that's franchise crippling if you're getting an injured 4 win player. I understand you reject it, but we haven't seen better from him in 2 years. I don't want to pay 2016 Kris Bryant prices for 2019 Bryant. Punt it a year if you think he's going to return to those levels, unless you think he lost 1 or 2 WAR playing in the OF

I think we just saw it. He was a 4.8 win player in 2019 with 275 innings of a -12.7 UZR/150 in the outfield. Put him at his actual position and it’s easily at least in the 5-5.5 fWAR range in 147 games. The decline of Kris Bryant is greatly overstated.

[BDawk4Prez]

Does anyone else NOT care that the Astros stole signs?

[thawv]

The max I would give Rendon is 6 years. If I'm an AL team, I would consider another year if it took securing him. I prefer youth over age.

6/180 or 7/210

[thawv]

Does anyone else NOT care that the Astros stole signs?

I went on record on this site two years ago that I thought Houston was cheating.

My thought was PED's, or some foreign substance that their pitchers are using. Other than the electronic cheating, I still believe they are doing PED's or the foreign substance thing.

It's common practice to try to steal the catchers signs when a guy is on 2B. That's why they throw down so many fingers. To prevent it. But this kind of cheating never even crossed my mind.

[thawv]

I think we just saw it. He was a 4.8 win player in 2019 with 275 innings of a -12.7 UZR/150 in the outfield. Put him at his actual position and it’s easily at least in the 5-5.5 fWAR range in 147 games. The decline of Kris Bryant is greatly overstated.

If one believes that KB will produce a 40 WAR over an 8 year contract, than 240 is not out of hand. Personally, I don't think he will.

[rcal10]

So if Rendon gets 32 per year for 7 years that’s 7/224. In a market where 30 yo Rendon gets 7/224 can 30 year old Bryant beat 5/150?

If Bryant signs now instead of as a free agent he’s giving up years. What I estimated as a fair deal (8/240ish) is a discount. By signing an 8 year deal now, he’s covering 6 years of free agency rather than the 7-8 Rendon can get if he wants it or the 10 that Machado got. That’s a discount.

For him to exceed 7/190 he’d only have to beat $150ish as a FA. I think he should easily be able to do that. I’m not an agent, but Id advise him to pass on that.

I never suggested Rendon would get a 7 or 8 year deal. I said he would get about $30M a year, maybe $32M. But if it was $32M it would not be that long. Can't be. And my initial suggestion for KB was 7/$188 with a $5M buyout. So, in essence $30M a year (similar to Rendon) plus 2 yrs of control costing $43M. My mistake was saying add the next year for $30M. It should have said $35M or take the $5M buyout. That pays Bryant $30M a year for 5 or 6 years after his control is up. Give or take a few million and that is in the ballpark, IMO.

[rcal10]

I went on record on this site two years ago that I thought Houston was cheating.

My thought was PED's, or some foreign substance that their pitchers are using. Other than the electronic cheating, I still believe they are doing PED's or the foreign substance thing.

It's common practice to try to steal the catchers signs when a guy is on 2B. That's why they throw down so many fingers. To prevent it. But this kind of cheating never even crossed my mind.

I thought it was reported that they did do something to the balls to make it easier to spin them. Of course, I do not remember the exact story or what they were doing. But I seem to remember something like that was suggested.

[rcal10]

That’s not the point. I want to know what rcal thinks Rendon will get on the market this winter. Most seem to think Rendon will be between 7/210 and 8/240 as a 30 year old 3b. So even if you think Rendon is the better player you’d be saying that in a market where Rendon gets 7/210-8/240ish and Machado gets 10/300 as a 26 year old 3b that Bryant can’t get $150 million in free agency as a 30 year old 3b to exceed that offer. That’s not realistic to me. It’s not about Bryant being better or worse, it’s about how much better or worse does he think Bryant is.

I disagree that 4-5 WAR is Bryant’s limit or his normal now. He was 4.8 this year and it was dragged down by his willingness to spend so much time in the outfield. As a full-time 3b he would have exceeded 5 wins in 2019. He was 6-8 between 2015-2017. He was dominating in 2018 prior to his injury and clearly wasn’t right after that. I reject the premise that he’s a 4-5 win player.

Isn't what I suggested giving him an average of $30M a year. I am confused. Maybe my math is wrong. So, IMO, he shouldn't get it now. When figuring his contract you need to assume less the next 2 years. I did $18M and $25M. So that is $43M. Then 5 years at $150M. So total for 7 years of $193M. I suggested $188M with a $5M buyout or another year at $30M. My mistake was I should have said $35M. That would have ended up 8/$223. Which is 2 for $43 and 6 for $180 ($30M a year)

[thawv]

I thought it was reported that they did do something to the balls to make it easier to spin them. Of course, I do not remember the exact story or what they were doing. But I seem to remember something like that was suggested.

They've been cheating for a long time.

This is from January of 2017

Chris Correa on Tuesday issued a statement on Twitter saying his actions came as the result of finding out that the Astros first stole the Cardinals' data.

"On December 21, 2011, a Houston Astros employee accessed proprietary data on a St. Louis Cardinals server. Later, I would learn -- through unlawful methods -- that Cardinals' data were used extensively from 2012 through 2014," Correa said in the statement, which he said would be his last while he serves a 46-month prison sentence.

"Houston Astros employees used the data to replicate and evaluate key algorithms and decision tools related to amateur and professional player evaluation. Many individuals throughout the Houston organization, including the General Manager and Assistant General Manager, were included in e-mail discussions about these efforts."

[DamnGoat]

[chibears55]

I like this addition...