Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 39 of 109 FirstFirst ... 2937383940414989 ... LastLast
Results 571 to 585 of 1627
  1. #571
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    IL
    Posts
    25,055
    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    If the projection is 100,000-200,000 deaths in the US, and weíre only at about 5-6k right now, there is no way this lockdown will end this month. They say itís supposed to die down in June as the season changes. So are they expecting 95-195k more people to die from now until June? Even though only 5k have died since itís started? Chances are COVID was here late December/early January.

    Theo projection seems high. Just my opinion though. Unless fauci is talking global deaths.
    The projection is for the US only. It was projected by experts to be 1-2 million; the 100-240k is an optimistic take and presumes social distancing continues for a long time

    The distancing is supposed to be enforced until new confirmed cases are rare and deaths are essentially at a stand still, per Fauci.

    Click here to register!

    Hope to see some new posters around here soon.

  2. #572
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Northwest Arkansas
    Posts
    70,075
    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    If the projection is 100,000-200,000 deaths in the US, and weíre only at about 5-6k right now, there is no way this lockdown will end this month. They say itís supposed to die down in June as the season changes. So are they expecting 95-195k more people to die from now until June? Even though only 5k have died since itís started? Chances are COVID was here late December/early January.

    Theo projection seems high. Just my opinion though. Unless fauci is talking global deaths.
    It's US deaths. He also speculated in the same article that the death rate would probably be around 1% in the end.

  3. #573
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    IL
    Posts
    25,055
    Quote Originally Posted by DamnGoat View Post
    It's US deaths. He also speculated in the same article that the death rate would probably be around 1%.
    That goes with what i've been hearing. A 'true' death rate of about 1 percent - 10 times higher than the flu.
    But it sits much higher because of how overwhelming it has been on infrastructure across the world.

    Click here to register!

    Hope to see some new posters around here soon.

  4. #574
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Northwest Arkansas
    Posts
    70,075
    Quote Originally Posted by blams View Post
    That goes with what i've been hearing. A 'true' death rate of about 1 percent - 10 times higher than the flu.
    But it sits much higher because of how overwhelming it has been on infrastructure across the world.
    Actually, my mistake, but this is what he wrote:

    If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

  5. #575
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    20,985
    Quote Originally Posted by DamnGoat View Post
    Actually, my mistake, but this is what he wrote:


    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
    Yet the world is basically **** down. Most likely over a comparable death rate for the seasonal flu that no one ever talks about.

    I think there is something much bigger going on. Thereís a lot of just strange things happening right now. Putin delivering supplies to the US yesterday is just one small example. I wonít pretend to know what exactly is going on behind the scenes. You could easily tie in a lot of different things, but this whole situation is bizarre. Especially when looking at the numbers. If the death rate only ends up being say, .5% yet the economy shutdown and spawned a 2 trillion stimulus package, was it worth it? Especially if the fed comes in and starts buying stocks, as is being discussed right now.

    At any rate, I miss sports and my old, simple, trivial American way of life. I sincerely hope thatís not a thing of the past, but something tells me this is just the beginning of something gigantic. A major shift.

  6. #576
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    IL
    Posts
    25,055
    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    Yet the world is basically **** down. Most likely over a comparable death rate for the seasonal flu that no one ever talks about.

    I think there is something much bigger going on. Thereís a lot of just strange things happening right now. Putin delivering supplies to the US yesterday is just one small example. I wonít pretend to know what exactly is going on behind the scenes. You could easily tie in a lot of different things, but this whole situation is bizarre. Especially when looking at the numbers. If the death rate only ends up being say, .5% yet the economy shutdown and spawned a 2 trillion stimulus package, was it worth it? Especially if the fed comes in and starts buying stocks, as is being discussed right now.

    At any rate, I miss sports and my old, simple, trivial American way of life. I sincerely hope thatís not a thing of the past, but something tells me this is just the beginning of something gigantic. A major shift.
    It isn't a comparable death rate, man. It is sitting at 40 plus times more deadly world wide. 25 times more deadly in the US.


    It is believed that the true death rate is 10-20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu ; which would be 1-2 percent. That isn't talking about confirmed cases or unreported cases. That is the true rate.

    It's r0 rate is 1-2.5 or 3.5 or so, which is much higher than the flu (1-1.2) which means every 1 person infects every 2.5 to 3.5 people.


    Just listen to CDC, WHO, epidemiologists, infectious disease doctors, and some healthcare experts on the frontline.

    Don't listen to any other things that have been fabricated (its like the flu, it only hurts old people, etc)
    Last edited by blams; 04-03-2020 at 03:05 PM.

    Click here to register!

    Hope to see some new posters around here soon.

  7. #577
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    IL
    Posts
    25,055
    Quote Originally Posted by DamnGoat View Post
    Actually, my mistake, but this is what he wrote:


    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
    The same thing would apply to the flu though. Reported cases are significantly higher. No one I know has been to a doctor and diagnosed with the flu over the past 10 years. Not one person.

    They just stay home. So even considerable less than 1 percent, like 0.5 or 0.6 percent, would be very dangerous still.

    Click here to register!

    Hope to see some new posters around here soon.

  8. #578
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Northwest Arkansas
    Posts
    70,075
    Quote Originally Posted by blams View Post
    The same thing would apply to the flu though. Reported cases are significantly higher. No one I know has been to a doctor and diagnosed with the flu over the past 10 years. Not one person.

    They just stay home. So even considerable less than 1 percent, like 0.5 or 0.6 percent, would be very dangerous still.
    The same thing would apply to any infectious disease.

    Even with a very low CFR, you can still have a high death count because there's very little individual immunity, almost no herd immunity, no proven treatment, and no vaccine yet. It will take years to build those things up.

    It's a new disease. It's going to hurt and kill a lot of people. That doesn't mean it will always be that way though.
    Last edited by DamnGoat; 04-03-2020 at 03:38 PM.

  9. #579
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Northwest Arkansas
    Posts
    70,075
    Anyway, we should probably get this thread back on track. We've gone down a pretty big COVID wormhole here.

    There's plenty of information out there about it, if you know where to look.

    This place should be more of a distraction from the pandemic than a discussion of it IMO.

  10. #580
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    IL
    Posts
    25,055
    Quote Originally Posted by DamnGoat View Post
    Anyway, we should probably get this thread back on track. We've gone down a pretty big COVID wormhole here.

    There's plenty of information out there about it, if you know where to look.

    This place should be more of a distraction from the pandemic than a discussion of it IMO.
    Agreed. It's so hard to distract from it lol

    Click here to register!

    Hope to see some new posters around here soon.

  11. #581
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Los Angeles, California
    Posts
    26,256
    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    If the projection is 100,000-200,000 deaths in the US, and weíre only at about 5-6k right now, there is no way this lockdown will end this month. They say itís supposed to die down in June as the season changes. So are they expecting 95-195k more people to die from now until June? Even though only 5k have died since itís started? Chances are COVID was here late December/early January.

    Theo projection seems high. Just my opinion though. Unless fauci is talking global deaths.
    Well the projections take into account the fact it will likely come back in the fall again. Which means we may be right back to where we are now simply because we wonít have a vaccine ready by that time. We could theoretically be more prepared since it would be the second time doing this, but still thatís a big reason why. Another reason is they really just donít have it contained whatsoever. It spreads really fast and a lot of carriers are asymptomatic. That means a lot of people are out there spreading it without even knowing they have it. Then extrapolation kicks in and you know the rest.

    Itís incredibly scary to think about for me, but thereís really no reason to panic as long as people do what they need to. Thatís all that matters. The issue is we jumped on this way too late. This shouldíve been address backed in January/February. We did a terrible job trying to contain it after we discovered China was lying.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  12. #582
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Northwest Arkansas
    Posts
    70,075
    Quote Originally Posted by Cubby View Post
    Well the projections take into account the fact it will likely come back in the fall again. Which means we may be right back to where we are now simply because we wonít have a vaccine ready by that time. We could theoretically be more prepared since it would be the second time doing this, but still thatís a big reason why. Another reason is they really just donít have it contained whatsoever. It spreads really fast and a lot of carriers are asymptomatic. That means a lot of people are out there spreading it without even knowing they have it. Then extrapolation kicks in and you know the rest.

    Itís incredibly scary to think about for me, but thereís really no reason to panic as long as people do what they need to. Thatís all that matters. The issue is we jumped on this way too late. This shouldíve been address backed in January/February. We did a terrible job trying to contain it after we discovered China was lying.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Therein lies the rub.

    This was going on in China since late November. They didn't even allow WHO, CDC, or other independent scientists to investigate or help until mid January. If you'd been following it since it started in China, then you probably knew how serious it was, but most people didn't even know it existed. There are countless videos of government officials saying it's not a big deal. WHO said on January 14th that there was "no clear evidence of human to human transmission." Even Dr. Fauci downplayed it in late January.

    I don't think any country was prepared and I don't see how they could have been given the information, or lack thereof, coming out of China.
    Last edited by DamnGoat; 04-03-2020 at 04:31 PM.

  13. #583
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Northwest Arkansas
    Posts
    70,075
    I know I said we should change the topic, but it's not easy, lol.
    Last edited by DamnGoat; 04-03-2020 at 04:32 PM.

  14. #584
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    IL
    Posts
    25,055
    Sorry if I was coming off like a dick. Not meaning to.

    Think I'm anxious about all of this lol. If I wake up in the middle of the night after falling asleep on a couch, it takes me hours to fall asleep.


    I think my wife being diabetic along with respiratory illnesses hitting me hard contributes to it as well, but I NEVER have trouble sleeping lol

    Maybe a hit or two of some stuff will help idk. Havent tried that as a sleep aid before.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    Click here to register!

    Hope to see some new posters around here soon.

  15. #585
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Northwest Arkansas
    Posts
    70,075
    Quote Originally Posted by blams View Post
    Sorry if I was coming off like a dick. Not meaning to.

    Think I'm anxious about all of this lol. If I wake up in the middle of the night after falling asleep on a couch, it takes me hours to fall asleep.


    I think my wife being diabetic along with respiratory illnesses hitting me hard contributes to it as well, but I NEVER have trouble sleeping lol

    Maybe a hit or two of some stuff will help idk. Havent tried that as a sleep aid before.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
    I think we're all on edge right now. No worries.

    I will ask, to any parents out there, what are you doing to keep your kids busy? I only have so many craft projects in my arsenal before we're parked on the couch every day watching Disney+.

Page 39 of 109 FirstFirst ... 2937383940414989 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •