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  1. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    If the Cubs had a choice, they would certainly pitch him at home over the road. I'm not saying avoid pitching him on the road at all costs.

    If he has 15 starts on the road, and only goes 6 innings 4 times, that's awful. Especially for a 1/2 guy it is.

    I didn't think it's random this season. ERA near 5 on the road as 1 or 2 guy is something to be concerned about this season
    Agreed. But his 2 best road starts were in Pitt and St.L. So that is a good thing.

  2. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Correlation. Causation.
    Nobody know why it's like that this year. But it is.

  3. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Agreed. But his 2 best road starts were in Pitt and St.L. So that is a good thing.
    Definitely pitch him normally.

    I'm almost exclusively speaking of the post season. If they could line up all his games at home, then do it.

  4. #214
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    But his pitching performances this year show that it's a fact and it actually happened. That's all I'm saying.
    In the past. Not in the future. And in the past beyond this year it didnít show that. And this years past some bad ones across 15 games. Like I said in the other post. This is an example of correlation not equaling causation. Just because 2 things happened doesnít mean one caused the other. He happened to have his bad starts on the road this year. That doesnít mean heís now a bad road pitcher and an elite home pitcher. His overall performance has been his norm. Moving forward his overall performance should be expected to be around that same norm. How he gets to this numbers when you split it up by home/road; day/night; 1st half/2nd half, etc will fluctuate. Thatís all noise.

  5. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    In the past. Not in the future. And in the past beyond this year it didnít show that. And this years past some bad ones across 15 games. Like I said in the other post. This is an example of correlation not equaling causation. Just because 2 things happened doesnít mean one caused the other. He happened to have his bad starts on the road this year. That doesnít mean heís now a bad road pitcher and an elite home pitcher. His overall performance has been his norm. Moving forward his overall performance should be expected to be around that same norm. How he gets to this numbers when you split it up by home/road; day/night; 1st half/2nd half, etc will fluctuate. Thatís all noise.
    All valid points. But for me, I would rather see him at home than on the road.

  6. #216
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    Side note: Of his 13 home starts, he has pitched 6 or more innings in 12 of them. The other game was 5 innings.

  7. #217
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    Reds (lulz) at Cubs (81-68) IGT: The Comeback Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    All valid points. But for me, I would rather see him at home than on the road.
    Until he has a couple bad home starts and great road starts. Then youíd rather have him pitch on the road...At day time because heís been way better in the day than at night, until that changes. On Tuesdayís because his Tuesday stats are sick (Iím making that one up, but you get the point). His numbers on an extra day of rest are also better than his regular rest numbers, so give him 5 days off between starts now. Right?

    Heís just a really good pitcher. Put him in position to pitch in the most important games as often as possible. I donít care where the game is or what time the game is. In the nlds, if the Cubs win the division, Hendricks and Darvish should start the first 2 in whatever order. That puts both in line to be on full rest in game 5.
    Last edited by CP_414; 09-17-2019 at 10:36 AM.

  8. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Definitely pitch him normally.

    I'm almost exclusively speaking of the post season. If they could line up all his games at home, then do it.
    To your point, if the Cubs win the division and can choose anyone to start game one on the road it would be Darvish for me. Now, game 2 gets trickier. If Hendricks goes Sunday, the last game of the year, he can go in game 2, on the road. I think Joe would have to believe in one of the lefties an awful lot to bump them ahead of Hendricks so Kyle can pitch game 3 at home. I think one of the 3 guys would really need to show something this last few starts for Joe not to go to Hendricks in game 2 on the road. I get your point, that you would rather see him at home. But if none of the other guys shows much I do not see how Joe puts any ahead of Hendricks. My guess would be Lester, if he finishes decent. mainly because of his post season success. Otherwise, IMO, they have to go Hendricks 2nd.

  9. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Until he has a couple bad home starts and great road starts. Then youíd rather have him pitch on the road...At day time because heís been way better in the day than at night, until that changes. On Tuesdayís because his Tuesday stats are sick (Iím making that one up, but you get the point). His numbers on an extra day of rest are also better than his regular rest numbers, so give him 5 days off between starts now. Right?

    Heís just a really good pitcher. Put him in position to pitch in the most important games as often as possible. I donít care where the game is or what time the game is. In the nlds, if the Cubs win the division, Hendricks and Darvish should start the first 2 in whatever order. That puts both in line to be on full rest in game 5.
    They should and will be 1 and 2. Even if both games on the road. That's not my argument.

    You can call it random or whatever you want, but the fact is, he's been substantially better at home than on the road this year. But he should still be pitched wherever the game is, as often as possible.

    So, are you saying that we should not look at splits when making out a lineup or a pitching decision? If you don't want to acknowledge his splits this year as real, how can we acknowledge any other player's splits as real?

  10. #220
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    Reds (lulz) at Cubs (81-68) IGT: The Comeback Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    They should and will be 1 and 2. Even if both games on the road. That's not my argument.

    You can call it random or whatever you want, but the fact is, he's been substantially better at home than on the road this year. But he should still be pitched wherever the game is, as often as possible.

    So, are you saying that we should not look at splits when making out a lineup or a pitching decision? If you don't want to acknowledge his splits this year as real, how can we acknowledge any other player's splits as real?
    They have a choice in the nlds.

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    If the Cubs had a choice, they would certainly pitch him at home over the road.
    If your argument isnít that they should try to get him in more home games in the playoffs because his home stats are better this year, what is your argument? You think he is now an elite pitcher at home and a bad pitcher on the road this year and they should pitch him at home when they have a choice, but if they actually have this choice in the nlds you now say they should pitch him on the road? You are all over the place.

    Iím saying that Kyle Hendricks Home/Road splits are not the least bit concerning moving forward. Heís a veteran why has never had dramatic home road splits before. It is heavily influenced by a handful of games. Thereís not a dramatic ballpark reason for the success or failure like pitching in Detroit or hitting in Coors. Itís meaningless. It has no impact on how he does in his next home start or his next road start or the ones after those.
    Last edited by CP_414; 09-17-2019 at 10:52 AM.

  11. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    They have a choice in the nlds.



    If your argument isnít that they should try to get him in more home games in the playoffs because his home stats are better this year, what is your argument? You think he is now an elite pitcher at home and a bad pitcher on the road this year and they should pitch him at home when they have a choice, but if they actually have this choice in the nlds you now say they should pitch him on the road? You are all over the place.

    Iím saying that Kyle Hendricks Home/Road splits are not the least bit concerning moving forward. Heís a veteran why has never had dramatic home road splits before. It is heavily influenced by a handful of games. Thereís not a dramatic ballpark reason for the success or failure like pitching in Detroit or hitting in Coors. Itís meaningless. It has no impact on how he does in his next home start or his next road start or the ones after those.
    Pitch him at home if there's a choice. Pitch him on the road either way. I prefer home, but I'm not skipping a road start to do it.

    By this logic, all splits are meaningless. If we claim that Kyle's splits this season are random, then all player splits are random.

  12. #222
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    Man, how about Zobrist. The old man just keeps defying father time. 11 games back and he has a 382/447/529 line

  13. #223
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    Reds (lulz) at Cubs (81-68) IGT: The Comeback Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Pitch him at home if there's a choice. Pitch him on the road either way. I prefer home, but I'm not skipping a road start to do it.

    By this logic, all splits are meaningless. If we claim that Kyle's splits this season are random, then all player splits are random.
    But thereís a choice in the nlds. You can pitch him game 2 on the road or game 3 at home. You are choosing game 2 on the road over game 3 at home when you claim youíd choose home over road if given a choice. This is that choice.

    All meaningless splits are random. L/R splits arenít random. Some extreme ballpark splits arenít random like Coors/Texas or Comerica/Petco (especially before they changed those parks). Some splits can be meaningful if it happens year after year, but thatís certainly not true with Hendricks. Small sample size splits that donít have an obvious explanation should absolutely always be completely disregarded.

  14. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Pitch him at home if there's a choice. Pitch him on the road either way. I prefer home, but I'm not skipping a road start to do it.

    By this logic, all splits are meaningless. If we claim that Kyle's splits this season are random, then all player splits are random.
    The clumsy leaps you make with logic, I swear.

  15. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    Man, how about Zobrist. The old man just keeps defying father time. 11 games back and he has a 382/447/529 line
    Pretty skeptical he'll keep that up, but I believe he's still a capable bat. I wonder if he's for sure done or if he would re-sign for a discount. He's probably not a full-time player anymore, but even part time and off the bench, he's still got his use.

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