Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 16 of 48 FirstFirst ... 6141516171826 ... LastLast
Results 226 to 240 of 710
  1. #226
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    8,307
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    But thereís a choice in the nlds. You can pitch him game 2 on the road or game 3 at home. You are choosing game 2 on the road over game 3 at home when you claim youíd choose home over road if given a choice. This is that choice.

    All meaningless splits are random. L/R splits arenít random. Some extreme ballpark splits arenít random like Coors/Texas or Comerica/Petco (especially before they changed those parks). Some splits can be meaningful if it happens year after year, but thatís certainly not true with Hendricks. Small sample size splits that donít have an obvious explanation should absolutely always be completely disregarded.
    I'm pitching him in game two on the road in the NLDS. Or even game one. I want him available for game 5. Pitching him in game 3 kills that. Plus, the other 3 are not very good.

    In a 7 game series, I would want him to be available 3 times. I want him pitching as much as possible. I prefer it to be at home, but I'm not skipping a start to make that happen

    We differ on what a SSS is. I think a full season is a reasonable sample size for a SP. You want to see multiple seasons.

  2. #227
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    9,877
    Remember early in Bryantís first season when people were worried heíd struggle in day games because his early day/night split wasnít great and they thought heíd have problems in day games because he has blue eyes? People use small sample size splits to push all sorts of narratives. It doesnít make them true.

  3. #228
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    8,307
    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    The clumsy leaps you make with logic, I swear.
    Explain that Kyle's splits are random, but other player's splits are not random.

  4. #229
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    9,877
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I'm pitching him in game two on the road in the NLDS. Or even game one. I want him available for game 5. Pitching him in game 3 kills that. Plus, the other 3 are not very good.

    In a 7 game series, I would want him to be available 3 times. I want him pitching as much as possible. I prefer it to be at home, but I'm not skipping a start to make that happen

    We differ on what a SSS is. I think a full season is a reasonable sample size for a SP. You want to see multiple seasons.
    If Darvish is starting game 5, the game 3 starter could be available in relief. That happens all the time.

    You arenít using a full season sample. You are taking a season and splitting it in half.

  5. #230
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    54,589
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I'm pitching him in game two on the road in the NLDS. Or even game one. I want him available for game 5. Pitching him in game 3 kills that. Plus, the other 3 are not very good.

    In a 7 game series, I would want him to be available 3 times. I want him pitching as much as possible. I prefer it to be at home, but I'm not skipping a start to make that happen

    We differ on what a SSS is. I think a full season is a reasonable sample size for a SP. You want to see multiple seasons.
    Then if a full season is meaningful, why hasn't it flowed into the next year? He's had good splits on the road and followed it up being better at home the next year. If they're meaningful they'd continue year to year.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  6. #231
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    8,307
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Remember early in Bryantís first season when people were worried heíd struggle in day games because his early day/night split wasnít great and they thought heíd have problems in day games because he has blue eyes? People use small sample size splits to push all sorts of narratives. It doesnít make them true.
    I don't remember that. But of course it wouldn't be true. That's actually a funny assumption.

  7. #232
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    8,307
    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Then if a full season is meaningful, why hasn't it flowed into the next year? He's had good splits on the road and followed it up being better at home the next year. If they're meaningful they'd continue year to year.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
    Maybe because there's a 5 month break between seasons, instead of 5 days.

  8. #233
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    8,307
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    If Darvish is starting game 5, the game 3 starter could be available in relief. That happens all the time.

    You arenít using a full season sample. You are taking a season and splitting it in half.
    Ok

  9. #234
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    9,877
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Explain that Kyle's splits are random, but other player's splits are not random.
    I did. And you are still twisting the point. Home/Road splits for any player in a similar situation as Hendricks are random. Unless there is an extreme ballpark involved or this is something that has been repeatable then itís random. For everyone. Some other splits, like L/R are never really random. Those are real things. Some other splits are always random. It depends on the split and the players/situation.

  10. #235
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    9,877
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I don't remember that. But of course it wouldn't be true. That's actually a funny assumption.
    It was all over the place. Hereís one link, but thereís others: http://sportsmockery.com/2015/07/eye...n-kris-bryant/

  11. #236
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    8,371
    FWIW, I was just updating the rest-of-season sim model I cooked up last week. Here are a fresh batch of probabilities.

    Code:
    ROS	Wins	Prob	NLC	WC1	WC2	Playoffs
    0	82	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
    1	83	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
    2	84	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	1.1%
    3	85	4.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.1%	5.2%
    4	86	9.8%	0.0%	0.4%	17.1%	17.5%
    5	87	17.3%	0.2%	3.1%	37.3%	40.6%
    6	88	22.3%	4.4%	11.7%	53.6%	69.7%
    7	89	21.2%	28.1%	22.9%	40.7%	91.7%
    8	90	14.4%	69.0%	18.9%	11.3%	99.3%
    9	91	7.0%	94.5%	4.7%	0.7%	100.0%
    10	92	2.2%	99.6%	0.3%	0.0%	100.0%
    11	93	0.5%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
    12	94	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
    So row that reads 6 ROS tells us that there's a 22.3% chance that they win 6 of the last 12 and finish the season with 88 wins; if they do that, they'll have a 4.4% probability of winning the division, a 11.7% probability of hosting the WC game, a 53.6% chance of being on the road for the WC game, for a 69.7% overall probability of being in the playoffs.

  12. #237
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    8,307
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I did. And you are still twisting the point. Home/Road splits for any player in a similar situation as Hendricks are random. Unless there is an extreme ballpark involved or this is something that has been repeatable then itís random. For everyone. Some other splits, like L/R are never really random. Those are real things. Some other splits are always random. It depends on the split and the players/situation.
    I thought I quoted a Bibbs post. Sorry.

    And I do agree that L/R splits are more valid than home/away splits. Except Coors.

  13. #238
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    9,877
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Maybe because there's a 5 month break between seasons, instead of 5 days.
    So?

    If itís a real thing then thereís a real cause and that cause would still be there in 5 months unless something is changed. Itís either a real thing or itís not. If itís real then itís true until some change is made. If itís randomness then the script could flip at any moment. Considering heís had about 15 road games this year, and itís never been an issue in the past, it would be illogical to think there is some real issue that would cause him to be a bad road pitcher moving forward this season. What would that issue even be?

  14. #239
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Puerto Rico
    Posts
    12,980

    Reds (lulz) at Cubs (81-68) IGT: The Comeback Edition

    Depending on how rested the bullpen is come Saturday I wouldnít be upset if they go with a bullpen game TBH instead of Hamels.


    Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk

  15. #240
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    8,307
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    It was all over the place. Hereís one link, but thereís others: http://sportsmockery.com/2015/07/eye...n-kris-bryant/
    Something I noticed here. In this day game picture of him, he's not wearing shades. I see them on him often now. If not always.

Page 16 of 48 FirstFirst ... 6141516171826 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •