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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by ewing View Post
    No one would have watched


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    you would have. especially when I trash ewing

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by IndyRealist View Post
    Yup. On a macro level skill curves simply are not true. In real world situations where players increase their shooting volume from baseline, overall their scoring efficiency goes slightly up. That may have to do with offensive sets being run for them when they are taking a larger role in the offense, or "getting into a rhythm", selection bias (it's working so the coach keeps going to them), etc. James Harden is currently 61.6% TS vs. 60.9% for his career. yet he takes 32 FGA per 48 now, vs. 22.8 per 48 for his career. Skill curves suggest he should have dropped in efficiency this year taking the highest rate of shooting ever in his career. Yet the opposite is true.

    On a theoretical level for individual players, you can consider skill curves. There's a point where a player taking more and more shots will simply become more inefficient as they tire and defenses key in on them. But that's a theoretical limit that doesn't happen in actual games except as a massive outlier in "chasing the scoring title" game that happens once a decade.
    That could be a result of external variables like the league as a whole becoming more analytically inclined/more efficient, the tailor made system/spacing for his game and tbf, he really is improving and riding his peak years. Theres an argument to be made that if he were currently in a far smaller role he could shatter his ppp. I mean the guy had a higher ts% in his 6moy season then saw that drop considerably when given the lead role. there are players who can handle the bigger load far better is all I take from this. others would struggle to a higher degree imo.

    I do think this newer, spacious era helps with rs stats tho. making past comps harder.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chronz View Post
    That could be a result of external variables like the league as a whole becoming more analytically inclined/more efficient, the tailor made system/spacing for his game and tbf, he really is improving and riding his peak years. Theres an argument to be made that if he were currently in a far smaller role he could shatter his ppp. I mean the guy had a higher ts% in his 6moy season then saw that drop considerably when given the lead role. there are players who can handle the bigger load far better is all I take from this. others would struggle to a higher degree imo.

    I do think this newer, spacious era helps with rs stats tho. making past comps harder.
    Which is my main issue with skill curves. They're simplistic and ignore what's actually happening on the court. There's a whole host of variables that affect efficiency numbers. Skill curves simply aren't true.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by IndyRealist View Post
    Which is my main issue with skill curves. They're simplistic and ignore what's actually happening on the court. There's a whole host of variables that affect efficiency numbers. Skill curves simply aren't true.
    Meh. they're a projection system that you augment from there subjectively and accounting for lg averages eventually. I'm pretty sure harden in a far lesser role would post absurd PPP in line with his individual skill curve.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chronz View Post
    Meh. they're a projection system that you augment from there subjectively and accounting for lg averages eventually. I'm pretty sure harden in a far lesser role would post absurd PPP in line with his individual skill curve.
    Except that directly contradicts the information we have available. The idea that usage negatively correlates with efficiency is an assumption, not based on facts. The individual player, his role on the team, his teammates, his opponents, etc. all affect efficiency far more than usage.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by ewing View Post
    Somehow they still knew Magic was better then Micheal Adams


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    Offrtg

    If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love.

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