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  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack the Ripper View Post
    Longest completed air distance yesterday:

    Allen - 42.5 yards
    Darnold - 27.7 yards
    No doubt, that's a double-edged sword. Allen tries to be a big-play QB but what the coaches have tried to teach him is that football is more a game of consistency and taking what the D gives you than it is about trying to score on the big play. Big plays are fine, good in fact, but not when they're a substitute for good solid consistent short play.

    I'll give you one example. Yesterday, on that one long pass to Sweeny for 29 yards or whatever it was, Singletarey was WIDE open in the flat with plenty of running room. It was 1st-and-15. Setting up a 2nd and 5-8 which would have been given would have been great but it's more likely that Singletary would have come close to a 1st or even much better. Instead, Allen forgoes Singletary and throws to Sweeney, who was open but who also had defenders nearby, one of which jumped and nearly tipped Allen's pass. It's those things, risk plays vs. less risky plays that Allen's not good at choosing.

    Two plays later on 2nd-and-10 he's got Gore wide open in the right flat again where if he throws it Gore has a legitimate shot at a 1st-down. Instead Allen makes the far riskier decision to run for 8 short of the 1st.

    It's that kind of stuff that's killing his career. Good QBs dont' do that, franchise QBs certainly don't.

  2. #92
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    Well I guess we will have to revisit the comparison once Allen has had 7 years in the pro's. Or at least 4 like Tyrod had when he first joined the bills.

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Well I guess we will have to revisit the comparison once Allen has had 7 years in the pro's. Or at least 4 like Tyrod had when he first joined the bills.
    I guess it depends upon your perspective.

    Mine is that it shouldn't take more than two seasons to get a QB drafted 7th overall to be playing better than one that was drafted in the middle of the 6th round with no particular expectations attached to him at 180th overall. Especially since we also traded away two 2nd-round picks to get him and forced ourselves to trade yet another to get Edmunds whom we could have had with our original 12th and still have one more 1st, two 2nds, and another 3rd.

    I don't think that too many people would argue that or suggest that if Allen cannot outperform a former 6th-rounder by his second season, then perhaps he wasn't the best pick at 7th overall.

    [Disclaimer: I thought it was an awful pick and even before the Draft took place my analysis pointed to Allen being a bust.]

    Having said that, it was my assessment before the Draft and my thinking was that if the Bills really were interested in Allen that it was one of the worst kept secrets in NFL Draft history. I was actually stunned that it was the case. I thought for sure all the rumors and talk was draft misdirection.

    We'll find out. Both Beane's and McD's futures in Buffalo as well as head-coach and GM are dependent upon Allen working out.

    BTW, I'm also on record as predicting that Oliver will be a bust too. I think he'll end up being an average starter, just not worth a 1st-round pick much less 9th overall. More like a late-2nd or even 3rd-rounder.

    But if Allen doesn't cut it then McD and Beane are goners.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wings & Bleu View Post
    I guess it depends upon your perspective.

    Mine is that it shouldn't take more than two seasons to get a QB drafted 7th overall to be playing better than one that was drafted in the middle of the 6th round with no particular expectations attached to him at 180th overall. Especially since we also traded away two 2nd-round picks to get him and forced ourselves to trade yet another to get Edmunds whom we could have had with our original 12th and still have one more 1st, two 2nds, and another 3rd.

    I don't think that too many people would argue that or suggest that if Allen cannot outperform a former 6th-rounder by his second season, then perhaps he wasn't the best pick at 7th overall.

    [Disclaimer: I thought it was an awful pick and even before the Draft took place my analysis pointed to Allen being a bust.]

    Having said that, it was my assessment before the Draft and my thinking was that if the Bills really were interested in Allen that it was one of the worst kept secrets in NFL Draft history. I was actually stunned that it was the case. I thought for sure all the rumors and talk was draft misdirection.

    We'll find out. Both Beane's and McD's futures in Buffalo as well as head-coach and GM are dependent upon Allen working out.

    BTW, I'm also on record as predicting that Oliver will be a bust too. I think he'll end up being an average starter, just not worth a 1st-round pick much less 9th overall. More like a late-2nd or even 3rd-rounder.

    But if Allen doesn't cut it then McD and Beane are goners.
    I think we all felt similar on Allen at the draft. The thing that I have grasped to is the fact that he was a cold weather QB from a small school. I think he will be happy to be a bill for his entire career if he pans out.
    Can't say the same about Watkins and mahomes.

    Curious what leads you to believe Oliver will be a bust. I think he can for sure be a Kyle Williams style disruptive DL. Might not put up the Donald sack numbers but he will cause havoc like Kyle did imo.

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    I think we all felt similar on Allen at the draft. The thing that I have grasped to is the fact that he was a cold weather QB from a small school. I think he will be happy to be a bill for his entire career if he pans out.
    Can't say the same about Watkins and mahomes.

    Curious what leads you to believe Oliver will be a bust. I think he can for sure be a Kyle Williams style disruptive DL. Might not put up the Donald sack numbers but he will cause havoc like Kyle did imo.
    I did a very detailed analysis of Oliver.

    When I rate a college player I always first and foremost look at how that player performs man-to-man against college talent that he plays against that will end up in the NFL. That's difficult to do with small school players because they play few of those types of man opponents. So I typically look at how they do against power-5 conference competition.

    Oiliver fared poorly in that regard. He played two power-5 teams in 2018, Arizona and Texas Tech. You can get both videos of him specifcally on youtube.

    He makes some good plays but so do his undrafted teammates. But let's take the Texas Tech game as an example. He faces a Sr. OG named Paul Stawarz in that game. Stawarz has little difficulty containing him one-on-one. Stawarz wasn't drafted and is on no NFL team.

    The next thing I look at is how a player logs his success in the NFL.

    Let's take Zay Jones, whom I also came up with a bust assessment for. He succeeded largely in garbage time in 4 & 5 WR formations, situations that are far from the norm in the NFL. He also played from well down.

    As to Oliver, if you look at where he succeeded, it was largely against teams like Rice, East Carolina, and Navy, teams that simply don't field NFL caliber players and teams where Oliver greatly overmatched his opponents in a man-amongst-boys kinda way.

    There's a lot more that I do but that's the crux of it.

    Insofar as Allen goes, there hasn't been a QB in the modern era that has had his issues that has come to the NFL and corrected them. I'm not a big believer in "first-time occurrences" in the NFL, particularly paradigm-shifting ones. In short, player has issues throughout college, comes to the NFL and expects to correct them, is not a big seller for me as it almost never works. GMs and coaches that make those decisions know little about NFL history.

    Sure, one can always find an exception, but typically not to that extent and with mitigators, and otherwise that's why they're called exceptions.

    As to Oliver, he was pretty much skunked in the preseason. This past game he had two tackles and really nothing else. He did get thru on one play for a QB Hit, but that was more circumstance that talent. We rushed 6 men against 5 blockers and he was the unblocked guy. Even then, he missed Darnold by overpersuing while whiffing on an arm-tackle. BTW, my nickname for him is Arm-Tackle Oliver. He used that a lot in college, but any seasoned NFL fan knows that arm-tackles don't work in the NFL.

    My prediction for Oliver is good but not great play at DT. Kind of what Kelsay gave us at DE. He too was a "high motor" "non-stop" pursuit prospect like Oliver. But neither had/have any moves that will propel them to greatness in the NFL.

    We'll see if that bears itself out, but through preseason and the first regular season game now it has.

  6. #96
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    BTW, IMO the whole cold-weather thing is overrated.

    We really don't get cold snowy weather until December, and for those four games typically on average two of the four are road games and it isn't even always all that cold or snowy in most of the games otherwise.

    Just sayin'. Can't hurt to get a QB used to playing in that but I don't think it should factor in heavily. Kelly played at Miami and got used to it.

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