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  1. #61
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    Apr 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cubs420 View Post
    It's easy to get disappointed by that but I need to see the full drafts to see who they passed on to take these guys. Those pics really hurt if there was someone in their draft range who they passed on that ended up being way better.
    I agree. I looked a while ago and can't remember.

    2012
    David Dahl
    Giolito
    Corey Seager
    Wacha
    Stroman
    J Berrios
    Haniger
    Gallo
    McCullers

    2014
    Nola
    Freeland
    Conforto
    Trea Turner
    Matt Chapman
    Luke Weaver
    Jack Flaherty
    Verdugo
    Keller

    2015
    Buehler
    Soroka
    Kingery
    DeJong

    I guess there were better options. On draft day though, they may have graded out different

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Getting even a role player with three of four of those picks is a win. The MLB draft is a mess of bombs.

    The expectations people have for MLB draft picks is way too high.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
    I don't disagree with that. Especially back in the day. In today's day and age the success rate for top 10 picks is better.

    From a fan's standpoint, watching them tank and being very excited about their 1st overall pick makes it a little disappointing when they are not every day contributors

    I guess it could be worse

  3. #63
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    Cubs at Mets - The Non-IGT IGT

    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Getting even a role player with three of four of those picks is a win. The MLB draft is a mess of bombs.

    The expectations people have for MLB draft picks is way too high.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
    But they didnít pick the best player in the draft every time!?!?!

    Yes, there is a lack of understanding of how the draft works among a large percentage of baseball fans. They are more familiar with the nfl and nba drafts so they think it should work like that, but it doesnít. The success rate in the mlb draft is so low. Kyle Schwarber is a successful pick. Ian Happ has been a successful pick. Both of those guys have a good chance at extended mlb careers. I didnít like the Almora pick, but he did make mlb and will probably have a 5+ year mlb career. In the mlb draft you are comparing 18 year old high schoolers with 20-22 year old college players all who are facing very different levels of competition and who are getting very different levels of instruction and are trying to project which of them can make it through 6 levels of minor league baseball to not only make mlb but be impactful. Thatís why they have 40 rounds of picks. The nfl and nba donít draft a player until they are ready to play in the league, for the most part. It would be like if mlb did a draft after players spent years in the minors and you had a much better idea what their games are like.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    But they didnít pick the best player in the draft every time!?!?!

    Yes, there is a lack of understanding of how the draft works among a large percentage of baseball fans. They are more familiar with the nfl and nba drafts so they think it should work like that, but it doesnít. The success rate in the mlb draft is so low. Kyle Schwarber is a successful pick. Ian Happ has been a successful pick. Both of those guys have a good chance at extended mlb careers. I didnít like the Almora pick, but he did make mlb and will probably have a 5+ year mlb career. In the mlb draft you are comparing 18 year old high schoolers with 20-22 year old college players all who are facing very different levels of competition and who are getting very different levels of instruction and are trying to project which of them can make it through 6 levels of minor league baseball to not only make mlb but be impactful. Thatís why they have 40 rounds of picks. The nfl and nba donít draft a player until they are ready to play in the league, for the most part. It would be like if mlb did a draft after players spent years in the minors and you had a much better idea what their games are like.
    Everything you said is true

    I don't know the success rate but I think it was less than 2% made the bigs. That was several years ago. But like I said from a standpoint of being excited and following along, I really hoped that the 1st round pick which was a top 10, was going to be more than just a role player. As I'm sure everybody on here was also hoping that.

    It happens the huge majority of time that players don't pan out at all.

    The 3 I'm referring to are not flops by any stretch but they definitely didn't hit on them

    It's definitely a crapshoot and draft day
    Last edited by thawv; 08-27-2019 at 10:04 AM.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Working on the Wrigley marquee next to the Eagles SB trophy. 1 session to go and sleeve should be done!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Thatís big time Iím almost done with my sleeve. I go in on Saturday to wrap it up. One day Iím gonna try and incorporate sports stuff, but itís expensive as **** and I wanna make sure itís something that isnít corny.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Everything you said is true

    I don't know the success rate but I think it was less than 2% made the bigs. That was several years ago. But like I said from a standpoint of being excited and following along, I really hoped that the 1st round pick which was a top 10, was going to be more than just a role player. As I'm sure everybody on here was also hoping that.

    It happens the huge majority of time that players don't pan out at all.

    The 3 I'm referring to are not flops by any stretch but they definitely didn't hit on them

    It's definitely a crapshoot and draft day
    The reason for tanking/losing on purpose is to get better draft picks and a little more in the draft pool. So itís only natural for fans who sat through multiple years of tanking to think that the picks should pan out. Itís what theyíre being told to buy into.
    Lucky for us it isnít the only ingredient in building a champion. Trades, flipping and FAs were much more important in building the Cubs championship. Rizzo, Arrieta, Hendricks, Fowler, Russell, Montero all traded for. Lester and Zobrist were big FA hits. Javy and Contreras were in the system pre-tank.
    Tanking did net us Bryant, which is obviously huge. But looking at the big picture, a multi-year tank probably isnít necessary to build a good team. I hope they donít consider it going forward.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cubboy View Post
    The reason for tanking/losing on purpose is to get better draft picks and a little more in the draft pool. So itís only natural for fans who sat through multiple years of tanking to think that the picks should pan out. Itís what theyíre being told to buy into.
    Lucky for us it isnít the only ingredient in building a champion. Trades, flipping and FAs were much more important in building the Cubs championship. Rizzo, Arrieta, Hendricks, Fowler, Russell, Montero all traded for. Lester and Zobrist were big FA hits. Javy and Contreras were in the system pre-tank.
    Tanking did net us Bryant, which is obviously huge. But looking at the big picture, a multi-year tank probably isnít necessary to build a good team. I hope they donít consider it going forward.
    I hope the Cubs never have to rebuild the way they did. The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cards havenít had to do that type of full scale rebuild. Iíd like to see the league to try prevent it and start to incentivize winning rather than rewarding teams for tanking.

  8. #68
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    Cubs at Mets - The Non-IGT IGT

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Everything you said is true

    I don't know the success rate but I think it was less than 2% made the bigs. That was several years ago. But like I said from a standpoint of being excited and following along, I really hoped that the 1st round pick which was a top 10, was going to be more than just a role player. As I'm sure everybody on here was also hoping that.

    It happens the huge majority of time that players don't pan out at all.

    The 3 I'm referring to are not flops by any stretch but they definitely didn't hit on them

    It's definitely a crapshoot and draft day
    They hit on Schwarber. Heís put up over 7 war, he was instrumental in winning a WS, he gave them financial savings in the draft which allowed them to sign Cease, which allowed them to trade for Q, and Schwarber has a chance to have a 10 year mlb career. Thatís a hit.

    There were been 2 players picked after Happ in the first round that look like clearly better picks right now in 27 picks. After 5 years he looks like arguably the 3rd best of 27 first round options. Thatís a solid pick. I wish he was better, but heís a solid mlb contributor that they took in what looks like an awful draft.
    Last edited by CP_414; 08-27-2019 at 11:03 AM.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    They hit on Schwarber. Heís put up over 7 war, he was instrumental in winning a WS, he gave them financial savings in the draft which allowed them to sign Cease, which allowed them to trade for Q, and Schwarber has a chance to have a 10 year mlb career. Thatís a hit.

    There were been 2 players picked after Happ in the first round that look like clearly better picks right now in 27 picks. After 5 years he looks like arguably the 3rd best of 27 first round options. Thatís a solid pick.
    OK.....after doing a little research, it looks like MY expectations need to be adjusted.

    17.6% of draftees see the bigs.

    73% of first round picks see the bigs

    51% of second round picks see the bigs

    40% of third round picks see the bigs.

    And it obviously keeps going down.

    Here's the part that I didn't expect. This is where I need to lower my expectations to fit the facts.

    Only 9.8% of drafted players ever see a career WAR of 0.1!

    By that number, our draft picks were not bad.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    OK.....after doing a little research, it looks like MY expectations need to be adjusted.

    17.6% of draftees see the bigs.

    73% of first round picks see the bigs

    51% of second round picks see the bigs

    40% of third round picks see the bigs.

    And it obviously keeps going down.

    Here's the part that I didn't expect. This is where I need to lower my expectations to fit the facts.

    Only 9.8% of drafted players ever see a career WAR of 0.1!

    By that number, our draft picks were not bad.
    Good info. Do you know what % of first round picks see a career war of 3 or 4?

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Good info. Do you know what % of first round picks see a career war of 3 or 4?
    I found something that uses bWAR for first round picks. The bottom three are copy and pastes, so it didn't come across exactly right. But you will be able to decipher the numbers.


    bWAR Per Season
    (500 AB / 25 G for pitchers)

    Under 1.5 Bust
    1.5-2.5 Successful
    Over 2.5 Superior


    Chance to Find a Successful Player in the Draft
    Year pick 1-5 pick 6-10 pick 11-15 pick 16-20 pick 21-25 pick 26-30
    00-05 2 5 5 3 4 1
    06-10 4 3 1 0 2 2
    All 6 8 6 3 6 3
    Percentage11% 15% 11% 5% 11% 5%


    Chance to Find a Superior Player in the Draft
    pick 1-5 pick 6-10 pick 11-15 pick 16-20 pick 21-25 pick 26-30
    00-05 9 5 5 2 4 5
    06-10 7 6 5 3 3 1
    All 16 11 10 5 7 6
    Percentage29% 20% 18% 9% 13% 11%


    Chance to Find a Bust in the Draft
    pick 1-5 pick 6-10 pick 11-15 pick 16-20 pick 21-25 pick 26-30
    00-05 19 20 20 25 22 24
    06-10 14 16 19 22 20 22
    All 33 36 39 47 42 46
    Percentage60% 65% 71% 85% 76% 84%

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I hope the Cubs never have to rebuild the way they did. The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cards havenít had to do that type of full scale rebuild. Iíd like to see the league to try prevent it and start to incentivize winning rather than rewarding teams for tanking.
    Correct me if I'm wrong but teams like Yankees Cardinals Dodgers, they kept their pool of talented young players flowing because they were able to trade away some good players over extending them for top prospects and they also signed top FAs that fit their needs..

    Seems like these teams always have a good mix of Rookies/prospects, young core, good veterans, good role players..

    What the cubs need to do as I thought they would do last offseason when they said money was short, is figure out who they want to keep or able to extend from the young core of Bryant Baez Contreras Schwarber Almora Happ Bote Russell, and trade the others for prospects and or needs...

    For me Bryant Baez and Contreras are the only ones I'd hold onto, they would be my young core..
    Rizzo and Heyward are my veterans..

    I'd use the others in trades for prospects and or needs...

    Hopefully next year and 2021, they will start bringing up a few prospects that will make an impact like Hoerner..

    They wont need a full scale rebuild if they are able to lock in Baez and Bryant and trade the others for prospects and good players in return

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    OK.....after doing a little research, it looks like MY expectations need to be adjusted.

    17.6% of draftees see the bigs.

    73% of first round picks see the bigs

    51% of second round picks see the bigs

    40% of third round picks see the bigs.

    And it obviously keeps going down.

    Here's the part that I didn't expect. This is where I need to lower my expectations to fit the facts.

    Only 9.8% of drafted players ever see a career WAR of 0.1!

    By that number, our draft picks were not bad.
    Of the 9.8%, how many were 1st rounders and how many were top 10 or 20?

    Or just simply what the average WAR for 1st rounders,top 10, top 20 picks?

  14. #74
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    Nov 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I found something that uses bWAR for first round picks. The bottom three are copy and pastes, so it didn't come across exactly right. But you will be able to decipher the numbers.


    bWAR Per Season
    (500 AB / 25 G for pitchers)

    Under 1.5Bust
    1.5-2.5Successful
    Over 2.5Superior


    Chance to Find a Successful Player in the Draft
    Yearpick 1-5pick 6-10pick 11-15pick 16-20pick 21-25pick 26-30
    00-05255341
    06-10431022
    All686363
    Percentage11%15%11%5%11%5%


    Chance to Find a Superior Player in the Draft
    pick 1-5pick 6-10pick 11-15pick 16-20pick 21-25pick 26-30
    00-05955245
    06-10765331
    All161110576
    Percentage29%20%18%9%13%11%


    Chance to Find a Bust in the Draft
    pick 1-5pick 6-10pick 11-15pick 16-20pick 21-25pick 26-30
    00-05192020252224
    06-10141619222022
    All333639474246
    Percentage60%65%71%85%76%84%
    Thanks. I need to look at that on the regular website later. Itís just a long string of numbers on tapatalk.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong but teams like Yankees Cardinals Dodgers, they kept their pool of talented young players flowing because they were able to trade away some good players over extending them for top prospects and they also signed top FAs that fit their needs..
    I certainly wouldn't agree that the Yankees Cardinals or Dodgers are in the habit of trading major leaguers for top prospects.

    The Yankees did this once, in 2016, with Chapman and Andrew Miller. Since then, no.

    The Dodgers haven't done this in recent memory. They've been doing the opposite (trading prospects for immediate help). Manny Machado the biggest example.

    The Cardinals haven't done this in recent memory, and have also been doing the opposite (Goldschmidt Heyward Ozuna as examples).

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