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View Poll Results: How many do the good guys win?

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  1. #121
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    Nationals at Cubs IGT - 08.23-08.25 - BDizzle's Promise

    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownPacerFan View Post
    I'm not going to rehash the argument. I see flaws in any statistical interpretation. Whether we look at ranges, or specific numbers, it doesn't matter. There are way too many other variables.

    Today is the perfect example. We scored three runs. Statistically, that's a slightly below average day. In reality, our offense was absolute embarrassing trash today. The stats lie.

    All I know is that I've watched a lot of baseball in my life, and this team goes through more offensive ups and downs than most. That's what's happening on the field whether you choose to see it or not.
    Except it absolutely matters. If your argument is that they are feast or famine it doesnít matter how many times they score exactly 2 runs. It matters how often they famine. That could be 0, 1, 2, arguably 3 runs.

    This idea that the stats can be manipulated is dumb too. They can only be manipulated if you donít understand how to use them. Stats are simply an answer to a question. Just ask the right question.

  2. #122
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    Aug 2009
    Location
    Bloomington, IL
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    4,303
    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownPacerFan View Post
    I'm not going to rehash the argument. I see flaws in any statistical interpretation. Whether we look at ranges, or specific numbers, it doesn't matter. There are way too many other variables.

    Today is the perfect example. We scored three runs. Statistically, that's a slightly below average day. In reality, our offense was absolute embarrassing trash today. The stats lie.

    All I know is that I've watched a lot of baseball in my life, and this team goes through more offensive ups and downs than most. That's what's happening on the field whether you choose to see it or not.
    I enjoy a lot of your posts, but on this point it really seems like you built a narrative 3 years ago and you are constantly looking for results that support that narrative. If you watched the Dodgers on a daily basis I think you would feel the exact same way about them.

  3. #123
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
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    8,315
    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownPacerFan View Post
    Except, I showed that they are an outlier, and everyone stuck their heads in the sand, and came up with wild reasons why they aren't. I promise you, this team has the highest standard deviation of runs scored per game of any team in baseball, by a lot.

    That literally means, this team is, by definition, the most feast/famine of any team in baseball. We score a lot of runs often, and we score very few runs often. We don't score near our average as often as other teams.

    Also, watch this team hit! I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone.
    Here's the data. Cubs' standard deviation is 19th out of 30. Better be careful what you promise.

    As we tried to tell you, the teams with the highest SD are also the teams that score the most (highest AVG). Teams with lower SDs have lower averages too. This is how this works.

    Code:
    tm	avg	sd
    HOU	5.45	3.83
    BOS	5.74	3.71
    ARI	5.20	3.69
    LAD	5.53	3.62
    MIN	5.83	3.62
    WSN	5.31	3.62
    SFG	4.39	3.46
    CLE	4.69	3.42
    CIN	4.52	3.38
    COL	5.34	3.37
    TOR	4.48	3.35
    SEA	4.91	3.33
    STL	4.50	3.32
    PIT	4.55	3.30
    NYY	5.86	3.29
    OAK	5.05	3.26
    MIA	3.62	3.26
    ATL	5.36	3.23
    CHC	4.94	3.23
    PHI	4.76	3.22
    TEX	5.07	3.22
    SDP	4.48	3.12
    LAA	5.06	3.11
    MIL	4.80	3.02
    TBR	4.67	3.00
    BAL	4.35	2.99
    KCR	4.23	2.98
    NYM	4.86	2.91
    CHW	4.24	2.88
    DET	3.59	2.68

  4. #124
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by davearm View Post
    Here's the data. Cubs' standard deviation is 19th out of 30. Better be careful what you promise.

    As we tried to tell you, the teams with the highest SD are also the teams that score the most (highest AVG). Teams with lower SDs have lower averages too. This is how this works.

    Code:
    tmavgsd
    HOU5.453.83
    BOS5.743.71
    ARI5.203.69
    LAD5.533.62
    MIN5.833.62
    WSN5.313.62
    SFG4.393.46
    CLE4.693.42
    CIN4.523.38
    COL5.343.37
    TOR4.483.35
    SEA4.913.33
    STL4.503.32
    PIT4.553.30
    NYY5.863.29
    OAK5.053.26
    MIA3.623.26
    ATL5.363.23
    CHC4.943.23
    PHI4.763.22
    TEX5.073.22
    SDP4.483.12
    LAA5.063.11
    MIL4.803.02
    TBR4.673.00
    BAL4.352.99
    KCR4.232.98
    NYM4.862.91
    CHW4.242.88
    DET3.592.68
    Lol. Can we be done with this nonsense about the Cubs being the most feast or famine team in the league now?

  5. #125
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    Nov 2009
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    3,582
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Except it absolutely matters. If your argument is that they are feast or famine it doesnít matter how many times they score exactly 2 runs. It matters how often they famine. That could be 0, 1, 2, arguably 3 runs.

    This idea that the stats can be manipulated is dumb too. They can only be manipulated if you donít understand how to use them. Stats are simply an answer to a question. Just ask the right question.
    I get it. Statistically, they haven't "famined" significantly more than the average team. This is where I don't trust the stats.

    If we really wanted to be scientific about this, we'd need a better operational definition of "famine". You can score 4 runs on three hits, and that's a famine game, to me. You can be down 10-1 in the eighth, and lose 11-5, and that's a famine game. You can have one big inning because the defense makes multiple errors, etc.

    Our bats disappear a lot. Our offense looks unwatchable a lot. We also look elite a lot. I just don't see other good teams looking as Jeckyl and Hyde as us. That's all.

  6. #126
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    8,315
    Feast(>5)/middle(4-5)/famine(<4) data

    Code:
    tm	games	feast	middle	famine	feast_p	middle_p	famine_p
    ARI	128	48	33	47	0.38	0.26	0.37
    ATL	129	48	43	38	0.37	0.33	0.29
    BAL	128	39	29	60	0.30	0.23	0.47
    BOS	129	59	33	37	0.46	0.26	0.29
    CHC	127	48	32	47	0.38	0.25	0.37
    CHW	127	34	36	57	0.27	0.28	0.45
    CIN	126	36	34	56	0.29	0.27	0.44
    CLE	128	48	26	54	0.38	0.20	0.42
    COL	128	57	26	45	0.45	0.20	0.35
    DET	126	23	30	73	0.18	0.24	0.58
    HOU	129	56	29	44	0.43	0.22	0.34
    KCR	128	37	32	59	0.29	0.25	0.46
    LAA	130	50	34	46	0.38	0.26	0.35
    LAD	129	59	23	47	0.46	0.18	0.36
    MIA	126	31	23	72	0.25	0.18	0.57
    MIL	127	41	41	45	0.32	0.32	0.35
    MIN	127	62	32	33	0.49	0.25	0.26
    NYM	127	48	39	40	0.38	0.31	0.31
    NYY	129	64	34	31	0.50	0.26	0.24
    OAK	128	48	33	47	0.38	0.26	0.37
    PHI	126	50	23	53	0.40	0.18	0.42
    PIT	127	43	27	57	0.34	0.21	0.45
    SDP	126	34	35	57	0.27	0.28	0.45
    SEA	128	50	28	50	0.39	0.22	0.39
    SFG	128	39	25	64	0.30	0.20	0.50
    STL	126	39	36	51	0.31	0.29	0.40
    TBR	129	44	35	50	0.34	0.27	0.39
    TEX	129	45	42	42	0.35	0.33	0.33
    TOR	130	46	23	61	0.35	0.18	0.47
    WSN	127	45	34	48	0.35	0.27	0.38

  7. #127
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    3,582
    Quote Originally Posted by davearm View Post
    Here's the data. Cubs' standard deviation is 19th out of 30. Better be careful what you promise.

    As we tried to tell you, the teams with the highest SD are also the teams that score the most (highest AVG). Teams with lower SDs have lower averages too. This is how this works.

    Code:
    tm	avg	sd
    HOU	5.45	3.83
    BOS	5.74	3.71
    ARI	5.20	3.69
    LAD	5.53	3.62
    MIN	5.83	3.62
    WSN	5.31	3.62
    SFG	4.39	3.46
    CLE	4.69	3.42
    CIN	4.52	3.38
    COL	5.34	3.37
    TOR	4.48	3.35
    SEA	4.91	3.33
    STL	4.50	3.32
    PIT	4.55	3.30
    NYY	5.86	3.29
    OAK	5.05	3.26
    MIA	3.62	3.26
    ATL	5.36	3.23
    CHC	4.94	3.23
    PHI	4.76	3.22
    TEX	5.07	3.22
    SDP	4.48	3.12
    LAA	5.06	3.11
    MIL	4.80	3.02
    TBR	4.67	3.00
    BAL	4.35	2.99
    KCR	4.23	2.98
    NYM	4.86	2.91
    CHW	4.24	2.88
    DET	3.59	2.68
    Wow, thanks. I'm genuinely shocked by that.

    I tip my cap to you, and I admit I was wrong. Maybe I'm just too emotionally invested to be unbiased.

  8. #128
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    8,315
    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownPacerFan View Post
    Wow, thanks. I'm genuinely shocked by that.

    I tip my cap to you, and I admit I was wrong. Maybe I'm just too emotionally invested to be unbiased.
    High standard deviation is driven by outliers.

    The only outliers in baseball are the good kind (12, 15 run games). You can't have a -10 run game. The biggest outlier you can have on the negative side is a zero.

    So since you want as many "good" outliers as you can get, you want a higher SD.

  9. #129
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    37,070
    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    I'm looking forward to September with this offense..

    I really think once Contreras returns and Zobrist gets in there again, the offense gonna be more consistent in a good way.


    Right now, they're not getting much help from the Catcher and 2B spots in the lineup..
    I wouldn't expect much from Zobrist.

  10. #130
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    Nov 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by davearm View Post
    High standard deviation is driven by outliers.

    The only outliers in baseball are the good kind (12, 15 run games). You can't have a -10 run game. The biggest outlier you can have on the negative side is a zero.

    So since you want as many "good" outliers as you can get, you want a higher SD.
    Yeah, that's a good point too. I feel like I should have thought of this.

  11. #131
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    Nov 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownPacerFan View Post
    Yeah, that's a good point too. I feel like I should have thought of this.
    I mean Iíve been telling you that for over a year.

    Kudos on taking the L, but this isnít a new idea that SD punishes teams that score a lot of runs.

  12. #132
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    Nov 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sofnr View Post
    I enjoy a lot of your posts, but on this point it really seems like you built a narrative 3 years ago and you are constantly looking for results that support that narrative. If you watched the Dodgers on a daily basis I think you would feel the exact same way about them.
    It's possible. What I see seems clear as day. This team struggles to adjust to situations and to how pitchers attack them. It's the one universal approach issue. Wait for your pitch and crush it. It can make us patient to a fault at times. It can make average pitchers look unhittable if they just refuse to give in and avoid huge mistakes.

    Maybe we are just aren't a great team offensively. But I think we're underachieving.

    Down the stretch, we should have a 1-8 that looks like:

    Heyward
    NC
    KB
    Rizzo
    Baez
    Contreras
    Schwarber
    Happ/Russell

    That sure as hell looks elite to me.

  13. #133
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    Nov 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I mean Iíve been telling you that for over a year.

    Kudos on taking the L, but this isnít a new idea that SD punishes teams that score a lot of runs.
    For some reason, it just clicked. Bear with me. I can be a little slow on the uptake.

  14. #134
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    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,516
    On Tuesday the Dodgers scored 16 runs
    Wednesday they scored 2
    Yesterday they scored 3.

    Even the Astros, who have one of the best offenses in the game, scored only 1 run against the worst team in baseball (tigers) two days ago. Youíre not always going to blow teams out that you should, and sometimes you blow teams/starters out, that on paper, you probably shouldnít.

    I know this discussion is ďbig pictureĒ but I had to throw that in there.

    Iím sure every fan of every team gets mad when their team scores 2-3 runs late in a game they are getting blown out in. Itís frustrating when that happens sure. You ask yourself, ďwhy couldnít we hit anything the first 7-8 innings?Ē All I can say is thatís just how it is sometimes. Itís baseball.

    I try not to let myself get too caught up in that stuff, because it will only drive you crazy trying to rap your head around it.

    Some of you guys are stat freaks. I say that in a way that you really understand and trust them and use them in a way to reflect what others see or think they see. Some of you are more of an old fashion, trust my eyes kinda person. I donít think thereís anything wrong with either. The problem is trying to have a discussion with somebody that leans extremely one way, when you lean extremely the other. Thereís really no middle ground to come too. The discussions will go on & on and you canít come together any where. I donít think thereís anything wrong in leaning either way, but I will say, itís hard to back up your argument with no stats against a guy that is throwing stats at you that say youíre wrong.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  15. #135
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    Jan 2009
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    Los Angeles, California
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    They got about 6 starts left each, if they're going to the playoffs, they're going to need both Hamels and Lester to get their games going again..
    They just need one of them to. Assuming Q, Yu, and Hendricks remain really good.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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