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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Missouri
    Posts
    25,375

    Rockies (58-69) at Cardinals (67-58) Aug 22-25

    Thu, Aug 22 7:45 PM EDT
    At Busch Stadium
    TV: FS-M, ATT SportsNet-RM


    German Marquez
    RHP
    12-5, 4.71 ERA, 171 SO
    Marquez is looking to stay on a roll, as he's 4-0 with a 3.32 ERA over his last six starts. He's struck out 43 and walked only five during that span. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA in three career starts vs. the Cardinals.
    Miles Mikolas
    RHP
    7-13, 4.30 ERA, 106 SO
    Mikolas has struggled in his past two starts, giving up 11 runs (10 earned) to the Pirates and Reds, with eight of those runs coming from home runs. On Saturday, Mikolas extended his streak of games with two or fewer walks to 40, breaking the Cardinals' record.
    Fri, Aug 23 8:15 PM EDT
    At Busch Stadium
    TV: FS-M, ATT SportsNet-RM


    Peter Lambert
    RHP
    2-3, 6.55 ERA, 44 SO

    Jack Flaherty
    RHP
    7-6, 3.46 ERA, 162 SO
    Flaherty has been among MLB's most dominant second-half starters. In his last eight starts, he has posted a minuscule 0.89 ERA over 50 1/3 innings. Flaherty has struck out 61, walked only 14 and limited opponents to 25 hits during that stretch.

    Sat, Aug 24 7:15 PM EDT
    At Busch Stadium
    TV: FS-M, ATT SportsNet-RM, FS1


    Chi Chi Gonzalez
    RHP
    0-4, 5.87 ERA, 18 SO

    Dakota Hudson
    RHP
    12-6, 3.63 ERA, 104 SO
    Hudson twirled one of the best starts of his young career on Monday when he finished 6 2/3 no-hit innings. It marked the second straight scoreless outing for Hudson, who paces the Cardinals' rotation with 12 wins.
    Sun, Aug 25 2:15 PM EDT
    At Busch Stadium
    TV: FS-M, ATT SportsNet-RM


    TBD

    Michael Wacha
    RHP
    6-6, 5.22 ERA, 80 SO
    Wacha threw his first scoreless start since June 10 on Tuesday against the Brewers, when he gave up three hits and struck out five in four innings. He's firmly reinstated himself in the rotation.
    Our forums:
    Blues Cardinals



  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    13,308
    What happened to Mikolas? Hes been awful this year.. Was last year a fluke?

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,563
    Very cool win tonight, everybody stuck in it, several 2 run home runs for the win.

    Mikolas has been overall, a league average starter. That's what they expected him to be when they signed him last year. I think last years success was certainly a bit of a fluke (with some adjustments to who he is).

    I expect Mikolas to be a 3.90-4.50 ERA/FIP starter who tosses 180-200 innings each year of his contract. And I'm fine with that. If he can be our 3 or our 4, then I'm plenty happy with that for the contract.

    But he isn't a sub 3 ERA pitcher. He shouldn't have been last year.

    The timing of the home runs he has allowed also really matters, and last year he was crazy lucky to give up a lot of solo homers and when it didn't matter. And this year, he's been giving 2 out, multi scoring homers this year, along with several more.

    Over the last two years, Mikolas has a 6.51 K/9, 1.82 BB/9, and a 1.02 HR/9 - 3.83 ERA/3.96 FIP

    2018 - 6.55/1.30/0.72 - 2.83/3.28
    2019 - 6.61/1.52/1.33 - 4.43/4.36

    In 2018, he gave up 16 home runs. 9 of this 16 were solo home runs. And only one of those other 7 weren't a two run homer (a 3 run homer on 6/18).
    Home run rates - solo - 56.3%
    2 run - 37.5%
    3 run - 0.6%
    grand slam - 0.0%


    In 2019, he has given up 22 home runs. 9 of these 22 have been solo home runs. But 13 out of his 22 have been with men on base.
    home run rates
    solo - 40.9%
    2 run - 22.7%
    3 run - 22.7%
    grand slam - 9.1%

    In 2018, the league average HR/9 rate was 1.16 HR/9
    In 2019, the league average HR/9 rate is 1.42/9

    We should first assume that Mikolas HR rate should at least go up with league average. So a 0.72 HR/9 should be expected to be 0.98 HR/0. The fact that it's gone up to 1.33 per 9 is a little concerning, but he's still better than league average. But it has gone up a good distance.

    The league as a whole gives up the following home runs with men on

    solo - 58.7%
    2 run homer - 28.3%
    3 run homer - 10.8%
    grand slam - 0.2%

    Sequencing is crushing him this year, and it was carrying him last year.

    If he had given up the league average rates on his home runs that he did give up (meaning he gave up home runs like the rest of the league, but with his frequency)

    In 2018
    He'd have
    solo - 9
    2 run - 5
    3 run - 2
    grand slam - 0

    Meaning 1 more earned run on the year in 2018

    And in 2019
    solo - 14
    2 run - 6
    3 run - 2
    grand slam - 0


    That is 10 extra runs allowed via home runs. If you bring him back to the league average expected runs allowed per home run - He'd have a 3.82 ERA instead of a 4.43

    The home runs are still up more than they need to be. But he's also had a bit of bad luck of when he's given up the home runs. Not to mention, two grand slams!

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
    Posts
    31,574
    Idk why you went through all of those numbers just to say last year was absolutely a fluke and yes, he has been pretty bad this year.
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    13,308
    Great comeback last night. I didnt get to see it but it sounded awesome!

  6. #6
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    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,743
    Fantastic to get that come from behind win. Nice useless walk by Carpenter to give us a chance to win it.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,563
    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    Idk why you went through all of those numbers just to say last year was absolutely a fluke and yes, he has been pretty bad this year.
    Last year was only fluking by 1 run.

    This year, he's been unlucky (in this regard) by 10 runs.

    He's somewhere in between both years in talent and skill.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
    Posts
    31,574
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Last year was only fluking by 1 run.

    This year, he's been unlucky (in this regard) by 10 runs.

    He's somewhere in between both years in talent and skill.
    But I thought you were saying he was the ace of the staff and he could continue to do what he did? You were adamant on him getting an extension too. And now hes a 4 or 5 guy in the rotation
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    13,308
    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    Fantastic to get that come from behind win. Nice useless walk by Carpenter to give us a chance to win it.
    Yay!! Way to go Carp!!

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    illinois
    Posts
    1,242
    Has Gyorko done anything with the Dodgers yet?

    Edit: looks like Gyorko is 2/7 both hits singles and 2 ks.
    Last edited by cards7; 08-23-2019 at 11:52 AM. Reason: checked stats

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    13,308
    Quote Originally Posted by cards7 View Post
    Has Gyorko done anything with the Dodgers yet?
    Hes 2 for 7...

  12. #12
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    Jul 2007
    Location
    illinois
    Posts
    1,242
    Again, the SP needs to figure itself out outside of Flaherty and Hudson going into this stretch run. But, the FO didn't do anything at the deadline to help bolster the rotation so I guess we can't blame the SP too much for being over exposed.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,563
    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    But I thought you were saying he was the ace of the staff and he could continue to do what he did? You were adamant on him getting an extension too. And now hes a 4 or 5 guy in the rotation
    I was happy with the extension (though felt it was about $10M more than it needed to be).

    I think he's a 2-4 starter. I'm happiest if he's our number 3. I never said his sub 3 ERA was sustainable.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,563
    Quote Originally Posted by cards7 View Post
    Again, the SP needs to figure itself out outside of Flaherty and Hudson going into this stretch run. But, the FO didn't do anything at the deadline to help bolster the rotation so I guess we can't blame the SP too much for being over exposed.
    I mean, for the most part, they've pitched pretty well. They have the 11th best rotation ERA in August in baseball.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    13,308
    These white uniforms are awful.. Lol!

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