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View Poll Results: What will your boy deliver?

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  • Sweep? - #BDizzle4Prez

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  • Sweep - #BDizzle4Life

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  • Sweep - #BDizzle4Mod

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Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 721 to 735 of 904
  1. #721
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    8,004
    Quote Originally Posted by davearm View Post
    Well RISP isn't a stat.

    BA with RISP will stabilize at whatever PAs the chart says.
    SLG with RISP will stabilize at whatever PAs the chart says, etc.
    I realized my gaff after I posted.

    So according to the stabilization chart, only XBH, BA, LD rate, and BABIP are to small of a sample size. The rest are good to go.

  2. #722
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    25,687
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    KB is great. There's no argument against that. I'm just grabbing on to 4 stats that are commonly thrown out around here. Since he came in to the league, this is where he stands.

    wOBA 15th
    wRC+ 15th
    OPS 18th
    FG offense 5th

    Not looking for an argument but perennial top 5 looks a little aggressive here. I'm not sure what you use to put a ranking on guys, so you may see something that I'm missing.
    What a clumsy use of statistics. For one thing, he's top 5 because defense matters too. Guys like David Ortiz and JD Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Nelson Cruz, Blackmon will hit better/similarly, but they play DH/1B or bad defense in general. For another thing, guys like Ronald Acuna, and Juan Soto who have like, 2 seasons of sample size are also on the list. In this case, I think WAR is a much better stat to use. There's a reason he's 3rd since he entered the league.

  3. #723
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    8,004
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Why do you think that is?
    Why do I think there's a fall off?

    I have no idea why there's a fall off.

    Believe me, if I know why, then everybody would know why. I learn stuff from you guys on a weekly basis.

    I'm gonna use two guys that jump out at me this year as far as elevating their game with runner on. Javi, and Bryce. Still using wRC+ as today's flavor.

    Javi
    Bases empty 97
    Men on base 135
    RISP 165

    Harper
    Bases empty 79
    Men on base 178
    RISP 189

    KB
    Bases empty 127
    Men on base 153
    RISP 130

    Most fans want to see KB elevate his game with RISP. He's pretty much the same guy no matter what.

  4. #724
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    8,004
    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    What a clumsy use of statistics. For one thing, he's top 5 because defense matters too. Guys like David Ortiz and JD Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Nelson Cruz, Blackmon will hit better/similarly, but they play DH/1B or bad defense in general. For another thing, guys like Ronald Acuna, and Juan Soto who have like, 2 seasons of sample size are also on the list. In this case, I think WAR is a much better stat to use. There's a reason he's 3rd since he entered the league.
    This is 100% offense only. That's what the topic was. His hitting.

    You just mentioned something that wasn't being discussed, and acted like it was.

  5. #725
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Addison, IL
    Posts
    21,455

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  6. #726
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
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    25,687
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    This is 100% offense only. That's what the topic was. His hitting.

    You just mentioned something that wasn't being discussed, and acted like it was.
    Doog's original post:
    He's pretty much a perennial top 5 guy and that's probably what he'll be for the remainder of his career because Mike Trout is a thing
    Are you drinking again? Because nobody has ever said or claimed anything about him being a top 5 hitter, nor would anyone. A top 5 position player, yes.
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 08-22-2019 at 12:40 PM.

  7. #727
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    9,443

    Giants at Cubs IGT: 08.20 - 08.22 - The Series that BDizzle Returned

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Why do I think there's a fall off?

    I have no idea why there's a fall off.

    Believe me, if I know why, then everybody would know why. I learn stuff from you guys on a weekly basis.

    I'm gonna use two guys that jump out at me this year as far as elevating their game with runner on. Javi, and Bryce. Still using wRC+ as today's flavor.

    Javi
    Bases empty 97
    Men on base 135
    RISP 165

    Harper
    Bases empty 79
    Men on base 178
    RISP 189

    KB
    Bases empty 127
    Men on base 153
    RISP 130

    Most fans want to see KB elevate his game with RISP. He's pretty much the same guy no matter what.
    So with these stats you have here, KB is better with RISP than he is with nobody on base. Heís much better with someone on first base than he is with nobody on. Iím guessing a 180 or more wRC+ in that scenario with someone on first. But KB is excellent in all 3 situations.

    1. Why isnít the question why Javy and Harper are below average hitters with nobody on base instead of KB being a 30% above average hitter with RISP? I donít think those stats are meaningful either, but if there is anything abnormal here itís those guys struggles with nobody on.

    2. If you look across KBs career (according to FanGraphs contact data), his quality of contact in RISP is about the same as these other situations. His k rate is about the same. He walks more, but a chunk of them are intentional. His BABIP is over 30 points lower despite similar contact quality. Iíd guess itís a very slight variation due to a combination of BABIP changes and a little less power/more walks because heís feared in these scenarios.
    Last edited by CP_414; 08-22-2019 at 12:41 PM.

  8. #728
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    9,443

    Giants at Cubs IGT: 08.20 - 08.22 - The Series that BDizzle Returned

    Quote Originally Posted by CubsRule08 View Post
    Darvish has real stats because Darvish knows what he throws. Kap is mixing in public stats that are confusing Darvishís splitter with his 4 seem. That happens a lot with Darvishís splitter. People watching donít recognize it correctly. Darvish is also using 2 strike data and Kap isnít. Darvish wins.
    Last edited by CP_414; 08-22-2019 at 12:42 PM.

  9. #729
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
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    50,234
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I think heís right that KB has a lot of room for improvement vs breaking and offspeed pitches, but I might be wrong. I havenít really looked into the baseline on those types of pitches. I just donít think RISP, high leverage, etc are a concern at all.

    I do agree with you that KB is generally under-appreciated by this fan base. Heís top level elite. Heís on a path that leads to Cooperstown so far.
    I agree, he can definitely improve against breaking balls. He's great against fastballs and change-ups but fairly pedestrian against pitches with spin. He's not bad but he's just OK.

  10. #730
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    8,321
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    KB is great. There's no argument against that. I'm just grabbing on to 4 stats that are commonly thrown out around here. Since he came in to the league, this is where he stands.

    wOBA 15th
    wRC+ 15th
    OPS 18th
    FG offense 5th

    Not looking for an argument but perennial top 5 looks a little aggressive here. I'm not sure what you use to put a ranking on guys, so you may see something that I'm missing.
    Used in this context, perennial means every year. So it seems to me that if we're arguing over the phrase "perennial top 5", then we have to look at individual year rankings, not rankings spanning multiple seasons.

    Code:
    Metric	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
    wOBA	17	8	10	dnq	20
    wRC+	16	9	10	dnq	22
    OPS	23	8	11	dnq	21
    FG off	12	2	6	dnq	14
    I'm a huge KB fan, but he obviously hasn't ranked in the top 5 in the offensive categories you listed with any sort of regularity. Only once in his career, in fact.

  11. #731
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Chicago land
    Posts
    14,305
    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownPacerFan View Post
    If we were a .500 road team, we'd have a 7.5 game lead in the division.
    It's nauseating isn't it?


    The real Pride of the Midwest

  12. #732
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Addison, IL
    Posts
    21,455

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  13. #733
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    25,687
    Quote Originally Posted by Cubs420 View Post
    It's nauseating isn't it?
    And if we were a .500 home team we'd be 10 GB. We are a 68-58 team right now regardless of randomly winning a lot at home vs losing a lot on the road.

  14. #734
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    50,234
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    KB is great. There's no argument against that. I'm just grabbing on to 4 stats that are commonly thrown out around here. Since he came in to the league, this is where he stands.

    wOBA 15th
    wRC+ 15th
    OPS 18th
    FG offense 5th

    Not looking for an argument but perennial top 5 looks a little aggressive here. I'm not sure what you use to put a ranking on guys, so you may see something that I'm missing.
    What? You literally said "FG offense: 5th" and are upset that I claimed he is a perennial top 5 hitter? Also, the difference between the 15th person and the 5th person in wOBA is less than 15 points.

    He's also ranked:
    8th in wOBA in 2016
    10th in wOBA in 2017
    Injured last year
    15th this year

    He was 6th in FG offensive value in 2017 and 2nd in 2016.

    Like, he's a perennial top 5 guy in baseball. It does NOT mean that at this moment in time he is a top 5 hitter. But he is right in that group of guys. And the difference between him and them is very minimal. There's always a guy or two that runs away from the crowd every year, but he's generally very close.

    So how's this for a compromise: He is DEFINITELY a perennial top 10 hitter in all of baseball. He's more than capable of putting himself in the top 5 discussion.

    Dude is awesome. We are lucky to have someone that is so clearly a future first ballot HOF. And is DEFINITELY a perennial top 5 player. That feels somewhat inarguable to me.

  15. #735
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    50,234
    Quote Originally Posted by CubsRule08 View Post
    It's so funny seeing Yu just dunk all over Kap.

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