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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    But you don't win by doing so.

    Walks and hits combined, base running combined, etc.

    Every walk is worth .69 of a run
    Every single is worth .88 of a run

    Singles are more valuable than walks, but not by a lot. As a comparison, a double is worth 1.271 runs, and a home run is worth 2.101 runs

    You too easily dismiss walks in favor of singles.

    It doesn't matter how you get on base, what matters is that you do.

    For his career, Carpenter has scored a run every 6.73 PA, and he's only a career .269 hitter

    Compare that, to Tony Gwynn, who scored a run every 7.40 PA in his career, as a .338 hitter. And consider that Tony Gwynn stole over 300 bases in his career and was a leadoff and 2 hitter the early part of his career (really the first 8 years).
    And consider the talent he played with. Just stop.

    Carp sucks.

    Since Edman has been in the line up, the Cardinals have been winning
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
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  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    And consider the talent he played with. Just stop.

    Carp sucks.

    Since Edman has been in the line up, the Cardinals have been winning
    Not because of him

    We are 29-25 in the games Edman has played in, 22-16 in his starts
    We are 48-46 in the games Carpenter has played in, 44-42 in his starts


    But they aren't why

    While Carpenter was hurt from Jun 28th to basically August 4th (other than those 4 games in July)
    Paul Goldschmidt from those dates hit .296/.347/.657 with 11 home runs in 119 PA and a 152 wRC+

    Carpenter and Edman had nothing to do with that.

    and the bullpen went from a 3.90 to a 3.40

    But again, this had nothing to do with Edman or Carpenter.

    You have literally no data to support your arguments. So, no, I won't just stop. All of your arguments against Carpenter are nonsense. Should Edman be playing? Yeah, he seems like a nice utility player. Is he better than Carpenter? No.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    Ok, but they are still more valuable. Dont tell me you dont win with singles in the same breath you're telling me they are more valuable
    They matter. But you do realize the frequency of outs you create trying to hit singles, right?

    High singles hitters, who don't draw a lot of walks are far less successful and score far less runs than high walk guys who carry low batting averages. Because there are a lot of very weak outs made by those contact hitters.

    Hanser Alberto scores a run every 10 PA, and drives in a run every 11.1 PA
    Don't like his team?
    David Fletcher of the Angels is batting .289, but has a .348 OBP and a .403 slugging
    He scores a run every 7.5 PA, and drives in a run every 11.45 PA


    But Justin Smoak, who is hitting .214/.355/.416
    He scores a run every 8.69 PA, and drives in a run 8.02 PA

    Smoak is more productive then both players, despite carrying a significantly lower batting average.

  4. #49
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    its amazing the lengths people will go to just so they dont have to admit they are wrong.

    to provide context. what these players do in memphis when sent down is irrelevant. expect bader cant hit here but is raking in memphis.

    carp wasnt hitting here before he had a boo-boo. didnt hit in the minors on his rehab, and hasnt hit since being back.

    eventually all the excuses have to come to an end with carpenter. he is what he is at this point. could he figure something out? maybe but outside of two months for the last two years he has been a dog turd.

    i feel like this is the same argument but with other idiots that we had when smart people said carp cant hit anywhere but leadoff, and we were right. but people wanted to argue and say he doesnt have enough AB's anywhere else to justify that. now we have over a season and a half of ab's that are terrible vs 1/4-1/3 of a season that were good and its like people are saying again the sample size is too small.

    so either all hitting coaches we have are idiots because any moron can see his swing is fricked or they do see it and he refuses to listen. either way. excuse time has came and gone.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    And consider the talent he played with. Just stop.

    Carp sucks.

    Since Edman has been in the line up, the Cardinals have been winning

    sometimes you have to let the bfib's go man. they are too dumb for their own good. i mean i am sure you saw him get all triggered over me asking why not a top 20. he couldnt reasonably say he didnt want to do a top 20 he had to bfib it and say he didnt feel like doing a top 40.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farty Farts View Post
    sometimes you have to let the bfib's go man. they are too dumb for their own good. i mean i am sure you saw him get all triggered over me asking why not a top 20. he couldnt reasonably say he didnt want to do a top 20 he had to bfib it and say he didnt feel like doing a top 40.

    LOL... the above comment is the definition of an internet troll. Making comments to anger people... but never actually bringing factual information to the table.

    Personally... I want the best players to play the most. If they are pretty much equivalent, I want the person with the highest potential to play the most. In Edman vs. Carpenter... that's not even close at the moment. Maybe Edman can still grow into a great ball player, but probably not. His past stats are pretty flat, and show know marked signs of improvement. Carp has been pretty much the same crappy hitter Edman has been this year... but has been significantly better in the past.

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    LOL... the above comment is the definition of an internet troll. Making comments to anger people... but never actually bringing factual information to the table.

    Personally... I want the best players to play the most. If they are pretty much equivalent, I want the person with the highest potential to play the most. In Edman vs. Carpenter... that's not even close at the moment. Maybe Edman can still grow into a great ball player, but probably not. His past stats are pretty flat, and show know marked signs of improvement. Carp has been pretty much the same crappy hitter Edman has been this year... but has been significantly better in the past.
    So how come you and Jeffy say Edman sucks, but all the analysts and beat writers love him?

    Hes hitting major league pitching. Hes just not walking yet. Hes had 1 stint where his obp was bad and that was in 2017 with Springfield. Other than that, its .330 or higher.

    Carp has shown he cant hit anymore. Yes he can still walk, but he cant hit. Edman can, and he can learn the strike zone. Hes swinging often and is putting the ball in play, he can be more patient and draw walks, hes a ****ing rookie for christ sake, give him a little time rather than waiting for a guy who is in serious free fall with the bat, let's give the rookie with promise more of a shot that the vet who cant hit.

    Base hits are contagious, not walks. Putting the ball in play, forcing the other team to get you out is needed, not carps, I hit the ball to one spot and everyone can guess what I'm going to do. Hes a ****ing idiot trying to mash a square of into a circle hole. If he cant figure out how to do something else, then his career as a starter is done.
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farty Farts View Post
    sometimes you have to let the bfib's go man. they are too dumb for their own good. i mean i am sure you saw him get all triggered over me asking why not a top 20. he couldnt reasonably say he didnt want to do a top 20 he had to bfib it and say he didnt feel like doing a top 40.
    It's very annoying. Good luck with a team full of .214 hitters. Great, they draw walks, but if no one ****ing hits you still ****ing lose. Not sure why Jeffy is backing a turd. He has the same mindset as the manager and FO. Which is probably why the team has been middle of the road for a while now with absolutely no clue when we will be good again.

    And by good, I mean 90-100 win team, not 85 win with everyone playing out of their *****
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    So how come you and Jeffy say Edman sucks, but all the analysts and beat writers love him?
    What analysts love him?

    Beat writers are journalists who cover sports.

    Hes hitting major league pitching. Hes just not walking yet. Hes had 1 stint where his obp was bad and that was in 2017 with Springfield. Other than that, its .330 or higher.
    If he can sustain a league average wOBA, then he'd be fine to have in there everyday.

    His xwOBA is .296 with a .308 wOBA, the league average wOBA is .321. After yesterday, he's way closer than he was. But that also suggests he has about 12 points worth of luck helping him (watching, I see a lot of bloop hits that fall in, that's not a sustainable thing).

    He's at a .303 OBP today, if he was carrying a .330 OBP with that slugging, I'd be all about him playing over Carp.

    Carp has shown he cant hit anymore. Yes he can still walk, but he cant hit.
    Well that's sort of relative. It doesn't matter how you get on. Yeah, Carpenter is hunting walks, but he is at least getting on base at a league average clip. He's a base runner more often and making less outs than Edman is. That does matter.

    But so does Edman's extra slugging value.


    Edman can, and he can learn the strike zone.
    That's absolutely possible. But in his minor league career, he walked 9.0%, and in his college career he walked 10.5%.

    Fangraphs suggests that the average player (depending on age and level) usually drops 25% in plate discipline going from the minors to the majors. So that would suggest a 6.0% walk rate for him should be expected now, and that should slowly improve as he gets older.

    I can live with a low walk rate, if it comes with a low strike out rate and a decent average.

    If Edman can be a .280/.330/.425 hitter in the big leagues, then I'd be happy to see him everday, or at least be used regularly. Honestly, yesterday's great game really helps him, and he just needs a little more OBP to justify more playing time for me.


    Hes swinging often and is putting the ball in play, he can be more patient and draw walks, hes a ****ing rookie for christ sake, give him a little time rather than waiting for a guy who is in serious free fall with the bat, let's give the rookie with promise more of a shot that the vet who cant hit.
    Well it's not like guys go from 3% BB rates to 15% BB rates. I'd be surprised if he ever sees a 10% BB rate in the big leagues. And that's fine, he doesn't have to carry a high BB rate. But that means other things need to be there to support him.

    Base hits are contagious, not walks. Putting the ball in play, forcing the other team to get you out is needed, not carps, I hit the ball to one spot and everyone can guess what I'm going to do. Hes a ****ing idiot trying to mash a square of into a circle hole. If he cant figure out how to do something else, then his career as a starter is done.
    I'm just curious where you think Carp is hitting the ball every time.

    Carp is lost because his swing is wide and he's missing hittable pitches. I don't think that's a permanent problem for him.

    I'm happy to see Edman get 5 starts every 10 games.
    Once every 5 games at third
    Once every 5 games at second
    Once every 10 games at short
    Late inning defensive replacement

    But if Carp can even come close to his normal self, we are way better off.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    What analysts love him?

    Beat writers are journalists who cover sports.



    If he can sustain a league average wOBA, then he'd be fine to have in there everyday.

    His xwOBA is .296 with a .308 wOBA, the league average wOBA is .321. After yesterday, he's way closer than he was. But that also suggests he has about 12 points worth of luck helping him (watching, I see a lot of bloop hits that fall in, that's not a sustainable thing).

    He's at a .303 OBP today, if he was carrying a .330 OBP with that slugging, I'd be all about him playing over Carp.



    Well that's sort of relative. It doesn't matter how you get on. Yeah, Carpenter is hunting walks, but he is at least getting on base at a league average clip. He's a base runner more often and making less outs than Edman is. That does matter.

    But so does Edman's extra slugging value.



    That's absolutely possible. But in his minor league career, he walked 9.0%, and in his college career he walked 10.5%.

    Fangraphs suggests that the average player (depending on age and level) usually drops 25% in plate discipline going from the minors to the majors. So that would suggest a 6.0% walk rate for him should be expected now, and that should slowly improve as he gets older.

    I can live with a low walk rate, if it comes with a low strike out rate and a decent average.

    If Edman can be a .280/.330/.425 hitter in the big leagues, then I'd be happy to see him everday, or at least be used regularly. Honestly, yesterday's great game really helps him, and he just needs a little more OBP to justify more playing time for me.



    Well it's not like guys go from 3% BB rates to 15% BB rates. I'd be surprised if he ever sees a 10% BB rate in the big leagues. And that's fine, he doesn't have to carry a high BB rate. But that means other things need to be there to support him.


    I'm just curious where you think Carp is hitting the ball every time.

    Carp is lost because his swing is wide and he's missing hittable pitches. I don't think that's a permanent problem for him.

    I'm happy to see Edman get 5 starts every 10 games.
    Once every 5 games at third
    Once every 5 games at second
    Once every 10 games at short
    Late inning defensive replacement

    But if Carp can even come close to his normal self, we are way better off.
    Carp has shown he cant be that. It started last year the 2nd half of August until now. He has declined in the worst way.

    Question-would you think the Marlins would even entertain the idea of trading Brian Anderson? That's a guy I'd actually give up quite a bit for. Play 3B until Gorman is ready, then trot out to the outfield. What would it take? Woodford/Montero/O'Neil?

    Then next year we roll with Fowler/Bader/Carlson

    Anderson/DeJong/Wong/Goldy/Knizner

    With Molina/Carp/Edman/Thomas on the bench

    Marlins are still a ways out, but inching closer. Major league ready talent should be intriguing for them to part with Anderson right? Hes 27 already also
    2019

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    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  11. #56
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    Marlins being such a cost controlled team, I doubt they part with a player like him until his value skyrockets during arbitration.

    Josh Donaldson and Rendon will be a FA, I believe if he does not get an extension with the Nats, but Anderson could be a fall back option. Only concern is that will his production get us over that hump. Anderson is having a similar year as DeJong. Anderson's k rate is about 20%. Anderson has that 3b/OF combo, but I think the Marlins hold on to him for a few more seasons.
    Last edited by cards7; 08-19-2019 at 12:00 PM.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by cards7 View Post
    Marlins being such a cost controlled team, I doubt they part with a player like him until his value skyrockets during arbitration.

    Josh Donaldson and Rendon will be a FA, I believe if he does not get an extension with the Nats, but Anderson could be a fall back option. Only concern is that will his production get us over that hump. Anderson is having a similar year as DeJong. Anderson's k rate is about 20%. Anderson has that 3b/OF combo, but I think the Marlins hold on to him for a few more seasons.
    You're more than likely right. I just think he could be a huge piece for us to have with our present and future. Solid defender and a good bat. I'd be willing to trade anyone not named Carlson or Gorman. Too bad Reyes has 0 trade value anymore
    2019

    QB-Lock
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    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  13. #58
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    I'd like to see Brian Anderson get that avg up to like .280-.290 range, improve on the obp a bit, and limit some of those Ks, but he is someone to definitely keep an eye on over the next few seasons. He has a lot of team control right now (arb 2021 and FA 2024) and would require a decent package to get him now. Again, I think the Marlins hold on to him until at least 2021, but in the meantime hopefully he makes progress on the offensive front.

    I think Gorman can be moved if we hypothetically sign Rendon for 3b or Cole for SP (both of which would require the Cardinals to step out of their FA spending comfort zone). Gorman could be flipped for another high end SP option if we sign Cole, but if we sign Rendon I think we inquire to see what the Mets intend to do with Thor or a similar SP via trade. In any case if we trade Gorman it needs to be a top rotation arm.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by cards7 View Post
    I'd like to see Brian Anderson get that avg up to like .280-.290 range, improve on the obp a bit, and limit some of those Ks, but he is someone to definitely keep an eye on over the next few seasons. He has a lot of team control right now (arb 2021 and FA 2024) and would require a decent package to get him now. Again, I think the Marlins hold on to him until at least 2021, but in the meantime hopefully he makes progress on the offensive front.

    I think Gorman can be moved if we hypothetically sign Rendon for 3b or Cole for SP (both of which would require the Cardinals to step out of their FA spending comfort zone). Gorman could be flipped for another high end SP option if we sign Cole, but if we sign Rendon I think we inquire to see what the Mets intend to do with Thor or a similar SP via trade. In any case if we trade Gorman it needs to be a top rotation arm.
    Agreed on everything
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    So how come you and Jeffy say Edman sucks, but all the analysts and beat writers love him?
    Tommy Edman's career minor league totals... in 1500+ AB's .286/.353/.415

    Tommy Edman's career Major league totals... in 177 AB's .271/.303/.429


    He is playing right about where you'd expect him to play. A little more power in the big leagues, which probably won't last. He'll improve the OBP a little.... but he is a 90 OPS+ player. Has been his entire minor league career. Will most likely continue to be for a few more years, and then be out of the league in 4-5 years.

    Edman is very valuable... because he can play multiple positions. However, night in and night out... there is almost no difference statistically in horrible Carpenter and normal Tommy Edman.

    Why do you play a player over another one? It isn't about what they have done in the past, it is about right now. I think the odds of Carpenter going on a streak, and mashing the ball are exponentially higher than Edman. Edman is a serviceable player. He might even grow into a Greg Garcia type some day. He's Joe McEwing... who was a pretty serviceable player. He's one the fans loved, but let's be real... Jumpin Joe wasn't a great ballplayer.

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