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  1. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    Reading more and more Ozuna wants to stay. I wouldn't be opposed to it at all if we can move some guys like CMart, JMart, Fowler, Wong. Then we free up money and could bring in some much needed youth to pair with DeJong, Goldy and Ozuna.

    Hopefully Carlson is up next year playing CF/RF.

    I dont think Oneill can do anything here, I'd like to shop both Bader and Oneill. Extending Ozuna and having Carlson would make having both of them pointless and I think Randy A would suffice as a 4th outfielder.

    Trade CMart for an upgrade in the outfield and a good young prospect.

    Trade JMart for a lefty Reliever

    Trade ONeill + Wong for Mateo (I will never let this go since I read the A's love Wing)

    Shop Bader with Fowler in hopes someone bites and Fowler says ok.

    Out of all of that, I truly hope CMart gets traded and nets us something significant
    If we extend Ozuna at 6/$120M let's say. Not sure what he'll get, but I think that's the range.

    That's $20M next year, which exhausts the rest of our budget.

    But, that means O'Neill can probably be moved. Let Fowler and Martinez share right until Carlson is ready. Let Bader and Arozarena share center until someone takes the job. Once Carlson is ready, then you can move on from Fowler and Martinez.

    But nobody wants Fowler right now, and Martinez has pretty limited trade value as well. And that means very little money for pitching. Even if you move Wong, we don't have a succession plan at second and Edman and Munoz are nowhere nearly good enough to be everyday guys. I said I would have looked into trading Wong two weeks ago, but damn if Munoz and Edman just completely got figured out by opposing pitching. I actually think Urias may be the best long term solution we have at second, and he's getting kind of old (currently 25, and didn't destroy Memphis in a hitters era). It's hard to see who would be a good replacement for Wong.

    I just don't see how we can do that.

    Also, why do you guys love Mateo so much?

    He is already 24, and his numbers once adjusted in the PCL are rather mediocre.

    He strikes out 6 times for every walk, and he is playing in the most hitter friendly park in the most hitter friendly league in all of professional baseball.

    The Vegas Aviators have a team slash line of .305/.377/.543
    24 year old Mateo is slashing .295/.334/.520

    He's going to be 25 next year, by the time we can acquire him.

    His numbers, adjusted to the big leagues right now are .237/.276/.374 with a 4.6% BB rate and a 27.9% K rate. He'd be a replacement level player at this moment.


    When looking at guys in the PCL, be aware of how much offense exploded this year there.

    Fangraphs has a future projection for him of a 45 value player. Basically, a replacement level player (35/40 hit, 40/45 game power, 55/55 raw power, 80/80 speed, 45/50 field, 55/55 throw)

    He's fast, but he's never expected to hit at the big league level, and his defense is rather suspect. I don't see anything, anywhere, that talks him as a future 4-5 win player like you had mentioned.

  2. #137
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    Front office is going to have to go out of their comfort zones spending wise if they do not want to do a rebuild if we miss the playoffs again.

    Its frustrating that we have $46.25M just wasted on bad contracts. If FO wants to stay at $180m that limits signing ability and we can't subtract that $46m either b/c teams will not want those contracts.

  3. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by cards7 View Post
    Front office is going to have to go out of their comfort zones spending wise if they do not want to do a rebuild if we miss the playoffs again.

    Its frustrating that we have $46.25M just wasted on bad contracts. If FO wants to stay at $180m that limits signing ability and we can't subtract that $46m either b/c teams will not want those contracts.
    Yup. But I don't see them doing that either.

    I don't think spending is the solution to the problem. It's potential players in the minor leagues coming up to replace the aging vets we are stuck with.

    Gorman and Carlson are really the only prospects to be excited about right now.

  4. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    If we extend Ozuna at 6/$120M let's say. Not sure what he'll get, but I think that's the range.
    I don't see him getting nearly that much. Maybe 4/$65M. Do you really think he gets that? I think the FA spending has been reduced greatly the last few years. I do not see Ozuna as a $20M a year guy. Good hitter, but not a good fielder and not a good arm. I would be shocked at a $20M average for him.

  5. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    I don't see him getting nearly that much. Maybe 4/$65M. Do you really think he gets that? I think the FA spending has been reduced greatly the last few years. I do not see Ozuna as a $20M a year guy. Good hitter, but not a good fielder and not a good arm. I would be shocked at a $20M average for him.
    I think he'll certainly ask in that range. I thought 6/$105 was the right number originally. Added a Boras tax lol

  6. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I think he'll certainly ask in that range. I thought 6/$105 was the right number originally. Added a Boras tax lol
    I think that is a bit high as well. He is younger than the guys that signed last year. However, he is no better than McCutchen, Pollock or Brantley. Cutch got 3/$50, Pollock 4/$55 and Brantley 2/$32. All come with warts. But so does Ozuna. Hell, you know I am not a Cardinals fan, so for me, if they want to pay him 6/$120 have at it. If he insists on 6 years I can see something close to what you are saying, but maybe short of that $100M mark. And, as a FO, I wouldn't give him 6 anyway. I do agree with you that he might ask that. But remember, there is also Puig and Castellanos who will be FA outfielders next year as well. And neither of them will come with a QO. If the Cardinals offer Ozuna that, it might hurt him. Then again, he might take it. Honestly, I see all the outfielders this year as similar to those I mentioned from last year. All locking in between $14M and $17M a year. And no more than 4 years.

  7. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    If we extend Ozuna at 6/$120M let's say. Not sure what he'll get, but I think that's the range.

    That's $20M next year, which exhausts the rest of our budget.

    But, that means O'Neill can probably be moved. Let Fowler and Martinez share right until Carlson is ready. Let Bader and Arozarena share center until someone takes the job. Once Carlson is ready, then you can move on from Fowler and Martinez.

    But nobody wants Fowler right now, and Martinez has pretty limited trade value as well. And that means very little money for pitching. Even if you move Wong, we don't have a succession plan at second and Edman and Munoz are nowhere nearly good enough to be everyday guys. I said I would have looked into trading Wong two weeks ago, but damn if Munoz and Edman just completely got figured out by opposing pitching. I actually think Urias may be the best long term solution we have at second, and he's getting kind of old (currently 25, and didn't destroy Memphis in a hitters era). It's hard to see who would be a good replacement for Wong.

    I just don't see how we can do that.

    Also, why do you guys love Mateo so much?

    He is already 24, and his numbers once adjusted in the PCL are rather mediocre.

    He strikes out 6 times for every walk, and he is playing in the most hitter friendly park in the most hitter friendly league in all of professional baseball.

    The Vegas Aviators have a team slash line of .305/.377/.543
    24 year old Mateo is slashing .295/.334/.520

    He's going to be 25 next year, by the time we can acquire him.

    His numbers, adjusted to the big leagues right now are .237/.276/.374 with a 4.6% BB rate and a 27.9% K rate. He'd be a replacement level player at this moment.


    When looking at guys in the PCL, be aware of how much offense exploded this year there.

    Fangraphs has a future projection for him of a 45 value player. Basically, a replacement level player (35/40 hit, 40/45 game power, 55/55 raw power, 80/80 speed, 45/50 field, 55/55 throw)

    He's fast, but he's never expected to hit at the big league level, and his defense is rather suspect. I don't see anything, anywhere, that talks him as a future 4-5 win player like you had mentioned.
    I think those projections are wrong. I also find it weird that you say the A's wont part with him, now hes no good? He puts the ball in play and makes things happen with his speed. I dont care about his walk rate. You get a huge boner off of that. I look at the extra base bits he gets, and when he gets singles he turns them into doubles. That's something we dont have. An exciting player.

    He can play anywhere on the infield and he can play outfield as well. Having guys like that is great.

    He has more speed than Wong, more pop than Wong, and will probably hit better than Wong too. Every where I see has him being an average to above average hitter, not below average like you say.

    But you tend to be wrong on a lot of guys, so I take your evaluations with a grain of salt.
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  8. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    I think those projections are wrong. I also find it weird that you say the A's wont part with him, now hes no good? He puts the ball in play and makes things happen with his speed. I dont care about his walk rate. You get a huge boner off of that. I look at the extra base bits he gets, and when he gets singles he turns them into doubles. That's something we dont have. An exciting player.

    He can play anywhere on the infield and he can play outfield as well. Having guys like that is great.

    He has more speed than Wong, more pop than Wong, and will probably hit better than Wong too. Every where I see has him being an average to above average hitter, not below average like you say.

    But you tend to be wrong on a lot of guys, so I take your evaluations with a grain of salt.
    I don't know that the A's want Kolten Wong for him. That's the wrong direction for them as an organization. Not that Wong doesn't have trade value, or that Mateo doesn't have trade value. It's the buying and selling teams are the wrong organizations.


    You have to take numbers in the PCL with a grain of salt. He's hitting worse than his teams average player this year, and he'll be in his age 25 season next year. Offensively, he is fun and fast, but so is Harry Bader.

    And yeah, walks matter. So do singles. A .240 hitter who walks 12% of the time is more valuable than a .290 hitter that walks 4% of the time. That .240 hitter carries a .360 OBP, that . 290 hitter carries a .330 OBP. You dismiss the value of plate discipline way too often. Also, a young player with great discipline is typically a player that ages really well because they start to command strikes where they want them as they age. Instead of going up there swinging and trying to make hard contact on every thing and developing walks later.

    Also, Mateo isn't some prolific extra base king. He has a .225 ISO this year, which sounds awesome. Until you see that his park average is .238

    Aren't you concerned that last year, in Nashville, he hit .230/.280/.353 at the same level? And has been an average hitter at every stop the rest of the way?

    Where are you seeing scouts say that he will be an above average hitter?

    He is faster than Wong, but I dunno if he has more pop than Wong.

    When Wong was 24 years old, like Mateo is right now, he was already in his third big league season and threw together his second 2 WAR big league campaign. Wong has a 22 year old, hit better in a full season at Memphis (park adjusted) than Mateo has in his age 24 season in Vegas. I dunno if he'll have a ton more pop, but he could. His raw power grades well, so does his speed. He is an athletic player, but he shows a lack of discipline and is hitting in the most park friendly place in baseball. The league he is playing in has a league average ERA of 5.54, his team, has a 5.53 ERA. There are only two players with at least 100 innings pitched with an ERA under 4.00 in the ENTIRE league. Jake Woodford (Cards) has a 4.20 ERA in 122 innings, and that's one of the best stat lines in the entire league this year, and he's the youngest pitcher with over 100 innings pitched at that level. The league is hitting a home run 1.6 times per 9 innings. That's the entire league. They've already broken their leagues home run record all time this year (2751 home runs). Mateo is hitting in this environment this year.

    Also, wrong on a lot of guys? I've been wrong, but no more than you have.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 08-08-2019 at 06:25 PM.

  9. #144
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    Ozuna is going to get a tender offer, and then i say let him walk. He'll probably go somewhere else, and tear it up. But, he hasn't been good for us. His gold glove defense in left and his hitting have been WAY less than we were trying to get.

  10. #145
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    That's what I'm leaning toward as well.

    Issue the QO, and watch him walk. If he accepts, I can live with that too.

  11. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I don't know that the A's want Kolten Wong for him. That's the wrong direction for them as an organization. Not that Wong doesn't have trade value, or that Mateo doesn't have trade value. It's the buying and selling teams are the wrong organizations.


    You have to take numbers in the PCL with a grain of salt. He's hitting worse than his teams average player this year, and he'll be in his age 25 season next year. Offensively, he is fun and fast, but so is Harry Bader.

    And yeah, walks matter. So do singles. A .240 hitter who walks 12% of the time is more valuable than a .290 hitter that walks 4% of the time. That .240 hitter carries a .360 OBP, that . 290 hitter carries a .330 OBP. You dismiss the value of plate discipline way too often. Also, a young player with great discipline is typically a player that ages really well because they start to command strikes where they want them as they age. Instead of going up there swinging and trying to make hard contact on every thing and developing walks later.

    Also, Mateo isn't some prolific extra base king. He has a .225 ISO this year, which sounds awesome. Until you see that his park average is .238

    Aren't you concerned that last year, in Nashville, he hit .230/.280/.353 at the same level? And has been an average hitter at every stop the rest of the way?

    Where are you seeing scouts say that he will be an above average hitter?

    He is faster than Wong, but I dunno if he has more pop than Wong.

    When Wong was 24 years old, like Mateo is right now, he was already in his third big league season and threw together his second 2 WAR big league campaign. Wong has a 22 year old, hit better in a full season at Memphis (park adjusted) than Mateo has in his age 24 season in Vegas. I dunno if he'll have a ton more pop, but he could. His raw power grades well, so does his speed. He is an athletic player, but he shows a lack of discipline and is hitting in the most park friendly place in baseball. The league he is playing in has a league average ERA of 5.54, his team, has a 5.53 ERA. There are only two players with at least 100 innings pitched with an ERA under 4.00 in the ENTIRE league. Jake Woodford (Cards) has a 4.20 ERA in 122 innings, and that's one of the best stat lines in the entire league this year, and he's the youngest pitcher with over 100 innings pitched at that level. The league is hitting a home run 1.6 times per 9 innings. That's the entire league. They've already broken their leagues home run record all time this year (2751 home runs). Mateo is hitting in this environment this year.

    Also, wrong on a lot of guys? I've been wrong, but no more than you have.
    I guess time will tell. I think he'll be an allstar 2nd or 3rd year and he will be a 20-20 guy for the next 5-7 years
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

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