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  1. #31
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    10,817
    Quote Originally Posted by jojo30 View Post
    I am not a hater, but I hope I am wrong too. Just feel like there was talent on the board that would have been a safer pick at 12 that could have contributed immediately.

    Hopefully I am posting here after this season eating crow.
    To me it's not about playing immediately. I think we had a good enough offseason that we didn't need to draft an immediate umaoxt guy right away.

    I also think Gary can play right away. He's shown he can be stout against the run and hold the point of attack. He can easily get snaps in early down situations on the edge. He also has a bull rush with good quickness. If we want, we can get him on the field in passing downs as an internal rusher.

    To me, the pick is about upside and chance of reaching that upside. He absolutely has a high ceiling due to his size, strength, speed combo. But the likelihood of him being a strong edge rusher is questionable to me. And that's where the concern is for me. Did we take a guy at 12 who we could have found a similar but less sexy version of in say the 3rd round?

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    189
    This is a safe pick, fastest guy ever at 280lbs. Heís going to be able to stuff run as edge rusher in early downs. Heíll beat guards on 3rd down or whatever they ask. Heís a freak and all his coaches and teammates love him. He works hard and takes coaching. People just grip onto media reports saying stuff. Actually watch full games of the guy from not just junior year but sophomore when he was healthy. Gotta our in the work to have a quality opinion and back it with facts!

  3. #33
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    189
    Thank god we passed in burns, guy will never be able to run. Take the the guy who had chance to be complete! Gary is just as athletic and a whole lot bigger, thatís an easy one!!

  4. #34
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    903
    Here are some current players with somewhat comparable production as Gary.

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...l-ansah-1.html
    4.5 sacks in 3 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-jordan-1.html 16.5 sacks in 4 seasons


    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-hunter-1.html 4.5 sacks in 3 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...flowers-1.html 18 sacks in 4 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...k-clark-1.html 11 sacks in 4 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...r-jones-2.html 10 sacks in 3 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...ee-ford-1.html 20.5 in 4 seasons and 3 games during a red shirt year

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-vernon-1.html 9 sacks in 3 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...ek-wake-1.html thats cameron wake, didnt even play edge in college


    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...atthews-1.html , 5.5 sacks in 4 seasons


    Obviously this doesnt prove anything on garys future. Plenty of guys have had similar numbers and failed. But too many people are getting caught up in this topic too much.

  5. #35
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    iowa
    Posts
    7,786
    a lot of the reason I see people talking about the concern with his lack of production in college is because he was the number 1 recruit in the nation and it seemed like he could not get it to click at Michigan and the worry is that he won't have it click for him.

  6. #36
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    10,817
    Quote Originally Posted by Sdh09e44 View Post
    Here are some current players with somewhat comparable production as Gary.

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...l-ansah-1.html
    4.5 sacks in 3 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-jordan-1.html 16.5 sacks in 4 seasons


    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-hunter-1.html 4.5 sacks in 3 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...flowers-1.html 18 sacks in 4 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...k-clark-1.html 11 sacks in 4 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...r-jones-2.html 10 sacks in 3 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...ee-ford-1.html 20.5 in 4 seasons and 3 games during a red shirt year

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-vernon-1.html 9 sacks in 3 seasons

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...ek-wake-1.html thats cameron wake, didnt even play edge in college


    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...atthews-1.html , 5.5 sacks in 4 seasons


    Obviously this doesnt prove anything on garys future. Plenty of guys have had similar numbers and failed. But too many people are getting caught up in this topic too much.
    To be fair, most of those guys weren't top half of the first round guys though either. They were either later firsta or beyond for everyone but ansah if I'm remembering correctly.

    But I think the point most of us are trying to make is that we recognize that Gary has upside. But given the lack of production and how that lack of production shows on tape, there's a decent amount of risk.

    To me, when evaluating prospects you look at a few things. One is range of outcomes. Whats worst case scenario and best case scenario. But then you also have to try to figure out what he needs to add to get to that beat case scenario. And that sort of shapes the next part of the conversation and that's what's the likelihood of reaching all the different outcomes.

    To me, Gary's floor is fairly high. His floor is probably something similar to what Mike Neal was. Good run setting edge as either an OLB or DE, but doesn't offer a ton more. His ceiling is probably somewhere in the frank Clark or jadeveon clowney range and possibly a legit DPOY type guy.

    But in my mind, his ceiling is hard to achieve because to get there he needs to develop a ton in the pass rush game. So my mind, his most realistic outcome is something around the nick perry or za' Darius Smith range where he's a good run edge guy who can get you 5-7 sacks a year and may have a few years where he approaches 10 sacks, but not a consistent 10 sack guy. And that's completely fine, it's just not super exciting out of a top 15 pick. And that's sort of where Ive sat with this pick for awhile now.

  7. #37
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    903
    Quote Originally Posted by PackerBum9786 View Post
    a lot of the reason I see people talking about the concern with his lack of production in college is because he was the number 1 recruit in the nation and it seemed like he could not get it to click at Michigan and the worry is that he won't have it click for him.
    I wonder if he was the 5th recruit in the nation if this would even be a thing. Im not too concerned about him not neccesarily living up to some subjective ranking and a ranking that had a ton of great players right behind him. The difference from being 1 to anywhere in idk the top 25 probably isnt crazy different.

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