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Thread: Offseason

  1. #2236
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    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    most of this board doesn't see a difference between jori lehtera/dale weise/andrew macdonald/radko gudas/christian folin/michael neuvirth and kevin hayes/morgan frost/matt niskanen/phil myers/justin braun/carter hart, which is to say that it probably doesn't have anything to do with "attention"....


    brains just no work good after spend years slurming hextall dick.
    Seriously Steagles?

    Also, I do find it comical how 3/6 of the players you cited positively are Hextall acquisitions (Frost, Hart, Myers), including one (Morgan Frost) who was the product of the Schenn trade that also brought in Lehtera.

    As for Gudas, there is a compelling case to be made that he's actually *better* than Braun, both on-ice and financially. Hayes? Massive overpay. Upgrade? Absolutely yes. Good value for the money? No. Potential albatross contract? Yes.

    Niskanen? Honestly, if he continues to decline, he's another, more expensive version of AMac. I don't think people appreciate just how bad he was for WSH last year. We're talking about a guy who's advanced stats and per-60 production are comparable to or worse than AMac's.

    And really, there is some compelling evidence that this isn't a one-year thing -- his numbers in 17-18 *look* better, but his PDO was 104.3. His xGF/xGA for 17-18, he's at -5.0 (AMac was at -0.2), which suggests that (a) he's giving up a TON of HDSCs/getting bailed out by Holtby and (b) his scoring/goal creation while he was on the ice that year was unsustainably high (i.e. resulting in a higher-than-expected +/- of +24, when his underlying numbers suggested he should be -5.

    Last year, his PDO was just over 100 (100.9), his xGF/xGA was -15.1, CFRel was -3.2. That's not good. His actual +/- was -3 (expected -15), so this is what happens when you stop getting lucky with the on-ice shooting % AND you're still giving up tons of HDSCs.

    If Niskanen reverts to 14-15/15-16/16-17 form, then sure. He's a MAJOR upgrade. But if you're getting 2018-19 Niskanen? There's a compelling case to be made that he's a DOWNGRADE. Niskanen isn't a "slam dunk" move that's an instant upgrade, as much as you'd like to believe it.

    Hayes is "slam dunk" upgrade (even if he's a massive overpay and a potential albatross contract in 3-4 years) over Lehtera/Weise/Bellemare/VV/etc. Frost is likely a "slam dunk" upgrade over Raffl on the 3rd line.

    Braun -- I think it's a push with Gudas. He's more responsible + less crazy, but he's also older and has shown signs of decline. Gudas is a legitimate top-4 defenseman, but he does need a coach who understands how to maximize his strengths. Braun is lower-maintenance and more flexible in how he can be used.

    Neuvirth? If he's healthy, he's a more talented/better goaltender than Elliott. The problem is that he's never healthy. I understand rolling the dice on him, and I understand extending him so you can expose him in the VGK draft. I don't understand going into last season with him + Elliott coming off of core muscle surgery, which I expressed at the time.
    Last edited by Ace23; 08-05-2019 at 02:33 PM.

  2. #2237
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    Also, I do find it comical how 3/6 of the players you cited positively are Hextall acquisitions (Frost, Hart, Myers), including one (Morgan Frost) who was the product of the Schenn trade that also brought in Lehtera.
    let it be known far and wide that i am here for no reason other than to amuse.

    Niskanen? Honestly, if he continues to decline, he's another, more expensive version of AMac. I don't think people appreciate just how bad he was for WSH last year. We're talking about a guy who's advanced stats and per-60 production are comparable to or worse than AMac's.

    And really, there is some compelling evidence that this isn't a one-year thing -- his numbers in 17-18 *look* better, but his PDO was 104.3. His xGF/xGA for 17-18, he's at -5.0 (AMac was at -0.2), which suggests that (a) he's giving up a TON of HDSCs/getting bailed out by Holtby and (b) his scoring/goal creation while he was on the ice that year was unsustainably high (i.e. resulting in a higher-than-expected +/- of +24, when his underlying numbers suggested he should be -5.

    Last year, his PDO was just over 100 (100.9), his xGF/xGA was -15.1, CFRel was -3.2. That's not good. His actual +/- was -3 (expected -15), so this is what happens when you stop getting lucky with the on-ice shooting % AND you're still giving up tons of HDSCs.

    If Niskanen reverts to 14-15/15-16/16-17 form, then sure. He's a MAJOR upgrade. But if you're getting 2018-19 Niskanen? There's a compelling case to be made that he's a DOWNGRADE. Niskanen isn't a "slam dunk" move that's an instant upgrade, as much as you'd like to believe it.
    you know ...that's worth digging into. as you point out, literally everything is trending downward. some places where i would start:

    1: niskanen barely played with john carlson
    -- carlson was (and is) WAS's best defender, by far.

    2: WAS gave up a huge amount of HDSCs both with and without niskanen on the ice
    -- let it also be known that the championship hangover is real
    -- niskanen's decline appears to be less pronounced relative to his environment than the raw data makes it appear

    3: niskanen led WAS's defense corps in defense zone start percentage
    -- that is an indication that he was largely used in a defensive role
    -- that kind of usage naturally depresses both offensive production and relative production.

    4: WAS offense underperformed while niskanen was on the ice
    -- specifically, WAS's shooting percentage with niskanen on the ice was lower than it was with any of WAS's other defensemen.
    -- in addition, their shooting percentage in high danger situations was also lower than it was with any of WAS's other defensemen.


    i don't know this stuff well enough to determine which elements are predictive versus which elements are noise/luck, but my guess is that a lot of the "high danger..." stuff is driven primarily by forwards, meaning that it can't be contextualized without digging into the underlying matchup information. and even that may be insufficient, depending on how each team's style of play impacts the underlying data.

  3. #2238
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    but anyway...

    the point i was making is that this team has more talent and a more complete roster than any flyers' team we've seen since 2011-12, we have one of the best coaches in the NHL (and he's even PEM approved).


    our top 6 forwards scored 145 goals last year.
    our 3rd line (laughton, patrick, frost/lindblom) is the best we've had since 2012 (read/couturier/voracek).
    our defense corps is stacked 7 deep, with experience, explosiveness and PK ability.
    our PK finally has defensemen who can do the job.
    our PP is intact (and may even get a new coat of paint with hayes or patrick replacing simmonds)

    and we have a franchise goalie.



    and yet...the forum here is dead. maybe it's just that this is the summer, but there is no sense of optimism despite having a team that should comfortably hit 100 points for the first time since 2012.

  4. #2239
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    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    but anyway...

    the point i was making is that this team has more talent and a more complete roster than any flyers' team we've seen since 2011-12, we have one of the best coaches in the NHL (and he's even PEM approved).


    our top 6 forwards scored 145 goals last year.
    our 3rd line (laughton, patrick, frost/lindblom) is the best we've had since 2012 (read/couturier/voracek).
    our defense corps is stacked 7 deep, with experience, explosiveness and PK ability.
    our PK finally has defensemen who can do the job.
    our PP is intact (and may even get a new coat of paint with hayes or patrick replacing simmonds)

    and we have a franchise goalie.



    and yet...the forum here is dead. maybe it's just that this is the summer, but there is no sense of optimism despite having a team that should comfortably hit 100 points for the first time since 2012.
    there are many that are hopeful though. Might not be this forum, but other ones are pretty excited for the season. I think we can all agree about the hayes contract (nmc and little overpayment), not going after bigger fish in subban, gusev, whatever. Still, we have a team that can actually compete with anyone..now a 7 game series we will have to see. Potential is there, and it all comes down to the young guns continuing their development.

  5. #2240
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    Braun takes Myers number, Myers takes Morinís number, Morin is now number 55

    I think Myers is a lock for the team and Morin is going to be moved or traded ... I doubt heíd clear waivers

  6. #2241
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    Quote Originally Posted by castan_b View Post
    Braun takes Myers number, Myers takes Morinís number, Morin is now number 55

    I think Myers is a lock for the team and Morin is going to be moved or traded ... I doubt heíd clear waivers
    id rather trade hagg. More value and morin is cheaper/can do pretty much the same thing as a 7th dman

  7. #2242
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3iverson3 View Post
    id rather trade hagg. More value and morin is cheaper/can do pretty much the same thing as a 7th dman
    I agree with this. I think Morin still has a higher ceiling and really a higher floor than Hagg. I think Hagg, at this point, is what he is. I don't really see him flash much, but Morin has a lot of ability still in there.

  8. #2243
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    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    but anyway...

    the point i was making is that this team has more talent and a more complete roster than any flyers' team we've seen since 2011-12, we have one of the best coaches in the NHL (and he's even PEM approved).


    our top 6 forwards scored 145 goals last year.
    our 3rd line (laughton, patrick, frost/lindblom) is the best we've had since 2012 (read/couturier/voracek).
    our defense corps is stacked 7 deep, with experience, explosiveness and PK ability.
    our PK finally has defensemen who can do the job.
    our PP is intact (and may even get a new coat of paint with hayes or patrick replacing simmonds)

    and we have a franchise goalie.



    and yet...the forum here is dead. maybe it's just that this is the summer, but there is no sense of optimism despite having a team that should comfortably hit 100 points for the first time since 2012.
    I think the forum is dead because we have like 9 defenders for 7 spots, lots of contracts in the air (provorov, TK, Braun, and Morin), we added someone we watched for 5 years in Hayes who is - letís be honest - not exciting ... a standard 2nd line center, and still no clear vision of what defines the managements new leadership strategy

    I know you think the strategy is to just get better and see what happens; but I have said I donít see any changes to the strategy except giving AV a center he is familiar with and Patrick a chance do gain offensive development in a 3C role

    I was hoping for what made the flyers the team I love - a bold move with a vision. All I see is 2 more years of ďup in the airĒ .... so it is tough to comment on right now. Donít have much to say.

    And then we get into expansion and Gís contract coming to the end ... thoughts of trading Voracek ...

    Just is what it is ... the vision of ďtank and have tons of cap space to spend on high end talentĒ (or what I viewed Hextallís 7 year rebuild plan was) is over. What is next? Not sure. Everyone is still here ... with new coaches.
    Last edited by castan_b; 08-07-2019 at 08:16 AM.

  9. #2244
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    the vision of ďtank and have tons of cap space to spend on high end talentĒ (or what I viewed Hextallís 7 year rebuild plan was) is over
    2015: 7th worst record -- no major free agent signings
    2016: 17th worst record -- no major free agent signings
    2017: 12th worst record -- no major free agent signings
    2018: 19th worst record -- no major free agent signings
    2019: 10th worst record -- JVR...but nothing else.


    again, i just have no idea how that performance can be categorized as "tanking". it's not. the team had too much talent to be truly bad, but hextall couldn't be bothered to try to help them. the last 5 years, this franchise has been caught between the fart and the poop. that's who hextall was; he was not going to change (if the initial rumors are to be believed, he was fired because he refused to get rid of hakstol).
    I was hoping for what made the flyers the team I love - a bold move with a vision. All I see is 2 more years of ďup in the airĒ .... so it is tough to comment on right now. Donít have much to say.
    i wanted that, too. landing subban would have been *chef's kiss*...but this has still been a really productive offseason.

    our PP was 23rd last year; it should be better this season.
    our PK was 26th; that should also be a lot better this year.

    our 4th line has gone from raffl/lehtera/weise to lindblom/laughton/raffl

    (quick aside: the phantoms' top line has gone from martel/knight/varone to farabee/rubtsov/ratcliffe)


    this season is going to be a case study of the impact from upgrading "terrible" to "average". fletcher got rid of "terrible" and he replaced it with "average"*. sure, hayes is an "average" 2nd line center; niskanen is an "average" 2nd pair defenseman; braun is an "average" 3rd pair defenseman; those are still substantial upgrades from what we've had.

    *i think "average" is pessimistic, but i prefer to be pessimistic while setting a floor for expectations this season.

    What is next? Not sure. Everyone is still here ... with new coaches
    i get that this isn't sexy, but the improvement this offseason is real and significant.

    frost is the most explosive forward prospect we've had since giroux; farabee is arguably better than konecny was at the same age, and he's not even projected to make the team out of training camp; sanheim and myers are finally here; hart is here.


    our depth of talent is going to make this an incredibly fun season.

  10. #2245
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    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    2015: 7th worst record -- no major free agent signings
    2016: 17th worst record -- no major free agent signings
    2017: 12th worst record -- no major free agent signings
    2018: 19th worst record -- no major free agent signings
    2019: 10th worst record -- JVR...but nothing else.


    again, i just have no idea how that performance can be categorized as "tanking". it's not. the team had too much talent to be truly bad, but hextall couldn't be bothered to try to help them. the last 5 years, this franchise has been caught between the fart and the poop. that's who hextall was; he was not going to change (if the initial rumors are to be believed, he was fired because he refused to get rid of hakstol).
    i wanted that, too. landing subban would have been *chef's kiss*...but this has still been a really productive offseason.

    our PP was 23rd last year; it should be better this season.
    our PK was 26th; that should also be a lot better this year.

    our 4th line has gone from raffl/lehtera/weise to lindblom/laughton/raffl

    (quick aside: the phantoms' top line has gone from martel/knight/varone to farabee/rubtsov/ratcliffe)


    this season is going to be a case study of the impact from upgrading "terrible" to "average". fletcher got rid of "terrible" and he replaced it with "average"*. sure, hayes is an "average" 2nd line center; niskanen is an "average" 2nd pair defenseman; braun is an "average" 3rd pair defenseman; those are still substantial upgrades from what we've had.

    *i think "average" is pessimistic, but i prefer to be pessimistic while setting a floor for expectations this season.

    i get that this isn't sexy, but the improvement this offseason is real and significant.

    frost is the most explosive forward prospect we've had since giroux; farabee is arguably better than konecny was at the same age, and he's not even projected to make the team out of training camp; sanheim and myers are finally here; hart is here.


    our depth of talent is going to make this an incredibly fun season.
    Where we disagree is I see everything Hexy did as a Tank ... he didnít sign any major FAs and focused 3/5 drafts on essentially on having 2 1st round picks. He inherited a team with talent, but not enough to win the cup. So he didnít add to help it. He just let it play out (a controlled tank so it wasnít an obvious tank to preserve fans/ticket sales). If you look at what you wrote or objectively, it is clearly a tank. At the end of tanks you hope for what happened with Chicago, LA, Pitt, etc. ... we arenít going to get that because we donít have the next Star on the team. Maybe that turns into patty, he isnít that right now. This team has a lot of great players, it does not have a top 20 center (per BS poll, but still, Couturier didnít crack the top 20 list) ... we need a draw and a star. Someone who can win us a game in a shootout. We havenít had that in 5 years, flashes from TK.

    So ... Hexy did exactly what he wanted to do, make no effort to improve the team. You think he was trying to make it good. I think he was keeping it mediocre because of the lottery system and how that doesnít pay off to do a full tank. So he let it ride.

    Iím not excited to see Hayes, Iíve see him for 5 years already on the Rags and never once wished he was on our team. Sure, we will be better and maybe can even pull off a St. Louis ... but I doubt it.

    We are rudderless and without a star. Caught in the early teens cycle of draft picks, not good enough to totally fail ... but not good enough to actually win. Super brutal.

  11. #2246
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    doesnít pay off to do a full tank.
    did TOR, NYR and NJD do a full tank?
    He inherited a team with talent, but not enough to win the cup. So he didnít add to help it. He just let it play out (a controlled tank so it wasnít an obvious tank to preserve fans/ticket sales).
    i think that's the literal definition of "rudderless".
    You think he was trying to make it good
    no, i just think he was bad at the job. to be more specific, i think there was no plausible way for hextall to succeed given the following self-imposed limitations:

    "didnít sign any major FAs"
    "He just let it play out"
    "no effort to improve the team"
    "he was keeping it mediocre"
    "Caught in the early teens cycle of draft picks, not good enough to totally fail ... but not good enough to actually win."

    he spent 5 years not doing anything. year 6 was not going to be different. neither was year 7, year 8, year 9.

    if the flyers were going to fire hextall for being hextall, they should have done it after the 2017 trade deadline when he used 10MM of the next season's cap space on filppula, neuvirth and PEB -- check that, they should have fired him a few weeks before, so those mistakes could have been prevented.

  12. #2247
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    Iím not excited to see Hayes, Iíve see him for 5 years already on the Rags and never once wished he was on our team. Sure, we will be better and maybe can even pull off a St. Louis ... but I doubt it.
    pulling a st louis seems optimistic given that our division accounts for 3 of the last 4 stanley cup winners, but moving that to the side for a moment, where do you see the weakness in our roster:


    is our 1st line (giroux - couturier - konecny) below an average 1st line?
    is our 2nd line (JVR - hayes - voracek) below an average 2nd line?
    is our 3rd line (laughton - patrick - frost) below an average 3rd line?
    is our 4th line (lindblom - pitlick - raffl) below an average 4th line?

    is our top D pair (provorov - niskanen) below an average top D pair?
    is our 2nd D pair (sanheim - myers) below an average 2nd D pair?
    is our 3rd D pair (ghost - braun/hagg) below an average 3rd D pair?

    is our #1 goalie (hart) below an average #1 goalie?
    is our backup goalie (elliott) below an average backup?

    is our #1 PP (JVR - hayes - giroux - ghost - voracek) below average?
    is our #2 PP (couturier - patrick - konecny - sanheim - frost) below average?

    is our #1 PK (couturier - raffl - provorov - braun) below average?
    is our #2 PK (laughton - pitlick - niskanen - myers) below average?



    i'm pretty sure some of those units will turn out to be below average when the games count, but right now, on paper, even the least of them seem to have a coinflip chance of being average or better, relative to their role.

  13. #2248
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    I cant keep reading this "tank" nonsense.


    Tanking, by definition is INTENTIONALLY being BAD.

    What we watched the last 5 years was far from an attempt at tanking. It was an attempt to stay relevant and wait for contracts to clear and prospects to develop while maintaining a strong bottom line.



    If you think what the Flyers just did was an attempt at tanking, you should probably be furious with how terrible they were.
    "2008 WORLD ****ING CHAMPIONS"

  14. #2249
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    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    is our 3rd line (laughton - patrick - frost) below an average 3rd line?
    is our 4th line (lindblom - pitlick - raffl) below an average 4th line?

    is our #1 PP (JVR - hayes - giroux - ghost - voracek) below average?
    is our #2 PP (couturier - patrick - konecny - sanheim - frost) below average?

    is our #1 PK (couturier - raffl - provorov - braun) below average?
    is our #2 PK (laughton - pitlick - niskanen - myers) below average?
    I thought you did a typo earlier in one of your posts when you put laughton on the third line but you did it again here. Lindblom will NOT play on the 4th line lol. If anything, lindblom and JVR will interchange throughout the season on the 2nd/3rd line.

    Also think the pk will be more of this:

    couts-G/lindblom provy-niskanen
    laughton-raffl/pitlick sanheim-braun some myers/hagg/morin action

    and the pp will not have Couts on the 2nd...I think you just want more parity but couts needs to be on there. I think he can have a 80-90 point season if tk elevates his game or voracek makes that top line dynamic again.

  15. #2250
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    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    pulling a st louis seems optimistic given that our division accounts for 3 of the last 4 stanley cup winners, but moving that to the side for a moment, where do you see the weakness in our roster:


    is our 1st line (giroux - couturier - konecny) below an average 1st line?
    is our 2nd line (JVR - hayes - voracek) below an average 2nd line?
    is our 3rd line (laughton - patrick - frost) below an average 3rd line?
    is our 4th line (lindblom - pitlick - raffl) below an average 4th line?

    is our top D pair (provorov - niskanen) below an average top D pair?
    is our 2nd D pair (sanheim - myers) below an average 2nd D pair?
    is our 3rd D pair (ghost - braun/hagg) below an average 3rd D pair?

    is our #1 goalie (hart) below an average #1 goalie?
    is our backup goalie (elliott) below an average backup?

    is our #1 PP (JVR - hayes - giroux - ghost - voracek) below average?
    is our #2 PP (couturier - patrick - konecny - sanheim - frost) below average?

    is our #1 PK (couturier - raffl - provorov - braun) below average?
    is our #2 PK (laughton - pitlick - niskanen - myers) below average?



    i'm pretty sure some of those units will turn out to be below average when the games count, but right now, on paper, even the least of them seem to have a coinflip chance of being average or better, relative to their role.
    Please stop. I know our players aren't the stars you want, but damn you rate them like they shouldn't be in the NHL. Until they play about 15 - 20 games we have no clue how or what this team is capable of. It's easy for us to sit here and say why but we weren't working the backside of the trades & signings.

    Stop with all the Hexy talk, I was guilty of it too, he is gone. Time to move forward.

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