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  1. #1
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    2019 In-Season Chatter

    Listening to Martinez's agent Scott Boras at the press conference to announce Bogaerts' extension it certainly seems like the player might be getting ready for another round of free agency after 2019.

    "This guy is some kind of hitter," Boras said. "He and (Washington's Anthony) Rendon (also a Boras client) are probably going to be the two most focused on offensive players on the market as far as guys who are elite offensive players. Yeah Ö Not that I think about those things."

    Martinez told WEEI.com in spring training he would be open to discussing a new contract during the season, an approach Boras would be open to.

    "I discuss the clients individually. Good lawyer stuff. If J.D. wants me to talk with them Ö Iím usually heading over to Tomís house to get something free out of him during the season," said Boras of Red Sox chairman Tom Werner. "Thatís strictly up to him. Obviously itís a relationship that has gone very, very well for everybody. You love it when players play well."
    weei.com

  2. #2
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    I'm ok with letting JD walk at the end of the season. I'm not saying that we don't need him or that he's not worth the money. I would just rather save some of that money and put it towards keeping Mookie, and Bradley. I'm not saying Bradley is better than JD!

  3. #3
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    The #RedSox are among the teams to evaluate #BlueJays reliever Daniel Hudson in recent days. Hudson, with a 0.93 ERA in his last 16 outings, is drawing trade interest from multiple teams, source says.
    @MLBNetwork


    Source: jonmorosi Twitter verified.

    Sources: #RedSox showing active interest in #Padres closer Kirby Yates and #BlueJays closer Ken Giles.
    @MLB
    Source: jonmorosi Twitter verified

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by BGeer091 View Post
    I'm ok with letting JD walk at the end of the season. I'm not saying that we don't need him or that he's not worth the money. I would just rather save some of that money and put it towards keeping Mookie, and Bradley. I'm not saying Bradley is better than JD!
    Why would we want to keep Bradley? Mookie is going at $400/10 yrs or more - no way Sox can keep him, after we get smoked the next few games, time to sell. Mookie and JBJ first up to see what can be had. We have to replenish the farm, and sign the kids that we can afford.

    Going back to 1966 this team is one of the worst 5 in terms of "stink of being losers" sort of team. Not going into the season with a closer was a capitol mistake. Our two aces both stink from the head down.

    Time to reverse the mistakes made re: GM since Theo had to wear the ape suit. Theo should still be here, then we wouldn't have to pitch away the next few years to rebuild through trades instead of a fertile farm system. John Henry's choice of GM was wrong.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Why would we want to keep Bradley? Mookie is going at $400/10 yrs or more - no way Sox can keep him, after we get smoked the next few games, time to sell. Mookie and JBJ first up to see what can be had. We have to replenish the farm, and sign the kids that we can afford.

    Going back to 1966 this team is one of the worst 5 in terms of "stink of being losers" sort of team. Not going into the season with a closer was a capitol mistake. Our two aces both stink from the head down.

    Time to reverse the mistakes made re: GM since Theo had to wear the ape suit. Theo should still be here, then we wouldn't have to pitch away the next few years to rebuild through trades instead of a fertile farm system. John Henry's choice of GM was wrong.
    Agreed.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Time to reverse the mistakes made re: GM since Theo had to wear the ape suit. Theo should still be here, then we wouldn't have to pitch away the next few years to rebuild through trades instead of a fertile farm system. John Henry's choice of GM was wrong.
    The DD choice was predictable in many ways. He was the "obvious" choice when the patience of BC was lost on the public and JH felt that he had to get into "win now" mode and DD is the guy for that.

    It's also predictable that we'd have a top-heavy roster featuring high/overpaid SP, floundering BP, and positional stars who will work a revolving door. Revolving only because the farm will have been decimated in assembling a team with a relatively short window of opportunity to win and then fail to re-sign the few stars available because of the rotation.

    As maligned as he was when he moved from TOR to ATL, Anthopoulos seems to have done a nice job of blending vet talent with a rising farm system while keeping expenses under control. I liked the similar pattern that Theo had.

  7. #7
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    Been a while, but let's not pretend Theo was some expert of keeping costs low. We have always been close to the luxury tax.

    BC still in my eyes has had the biggest influence on where we stand (in a good way today). Almost any other GM in Boston would have traded one of Benintendi, Betts, E-Rod, Bogaerts, JBJ, or Devers away. He made some bad signings, doesn't matter when you won a WS and kept the players mentioned above.

    The last of BC's contributions to this team has been Chavis, and maybe Laskins if he turns into something. The irony is that another GM like BC taking over this team today, would be amazing for the longterm success of the team.

    DD's deal for Sale was good and Kimbrel I can stomach. Pomeranz wasn't as bad of a deal as people like to make it out to be. We traded a lottery ticket for controlled SP pitching like a three. He had one of his full career years with us, then sucked. But there is an increasing chance we gave up no future WAR for him. Everything else has been a bit of a disaster.

    Buttrey for Kinsler, The Thornburg trade, simply put this guy doesn't care about the bullpen until it starts biting him in the ***
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  8. #8
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    End rant,

    Okay for this deadline I am all about Kirby Yates, but it is about trading the right prospects away and if not just walk away.

    If the Padres would consider a deal of Dalbec and Shwaryn for Yates I do it. First it really fills a big need with a really good bullpen piece, and puts us squarely in the mix of being good enough to win the WS.

    Yates is controlled. Dalbec has power and OBP skills, but he is 24 and there really is no room for him on our squad. Shawaryn is an interesting pitcher for sure, but is probably better suited for the NL. Plus if you are getting Yates you are okay with this.

    Yates
    Eovaldi
    Barnes
    Workman
    Hernandez (if he keeps his Walks under Control)

    Then hope Brasier figures it out a bit (because his stuff still plays). If we get healthy I am not worried about the lineup at all and neither should you. If by September 1B/2B is some mix of Holt/Hernandez/Chavis/Moreland/Pearce we should be very happy with that.
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  9. #9
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    Have a lot to say.

    I don't see JD opting out, not this year or maybe ever. He is on the other side of 30, not great defensively. Just a really good hitter. He may get to a 3 WAR year. He knows someone like Ortiz who played well recently enough was getting 16 MM a year to essentially DH. He has to think that the 19+ is not going to be easy to get.

    I am not as concerned about payroll as some others. There is an increasing chance that Pedroia retires. Porcello, whether we resign him or not will not be making close to 20 Million per year.

    Sandoval is for the most part falling off. Same with Pearce and Nunez. The timing of our contracts and FAs makes it more manageable then you'd think. The FO is not afraid to go over the luxury tax in a given year that is not within consecutive years.

    I can easily come up with a Scenario (easier now then before Sale and Bogaerts were extended) where we essentially keep everyone of importance.

    Start with Signing Holt to a 3 year deal worth 18-21 Million.

    JBJ I think you can sign to a 4 year deal worth 40-44 Million

    Benintendi and Devers are not eligible for FA until after the 2022 season (That's when Benitendi hits it). That is when Price, Eovaldi and JD (if he stays) would all fall off.

    I don't see a problem with keeping Holt, JD (if he stays), Betts, Sale, Bogaerts, Benintendi, JBJ Devers, E-Rod, Price, Eovaldi, Vazquez, and Chavis together through 2022.

    The only thing to follow with JBJ and how Jarren Duran progressives over the next year. If this time next year it looks like he is ready for the bigs and looks like a 290 avg 350 OBP guys with 10 HRs but 40+ SBs and what sounds like above average defense.... you let JBJ Walk.

    One thing is for sure, if we say lets keep most the squad together through 2022... DD or someone has to develop 2 SPs in that time frame. Two E-Rod or better types.

    I'm done for the day
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    End rant,

    Okay for this deadline I am all about Kirby Yates, but it is about trading the right prospects away and if not just walk away.

    If the Padres would consider a deal of Dalbec and Shwaryn for Yates I do it. First it really fills a big need with a really good bullpen piece, and puts us squarely in the mix of being good enough to win the WS.

    Yates is controlled. Dalbec has power and OBP skills, but he is 24 and there really is no room for him on our squad. Shawaryn is an interesting pitcher for sure, but is probably better suited for the NL. Plus if you are getting Yates you are okay with this.

    Yates
    Eovaldi
    Barnes
    Workman
    Hernandez (if he keeps his Walks under Control)

    Then hope Brasier figures it out a bit (because his stuff still plays). If we get healthy I am not worried about the lineup at all and neither should you. If by September 1B/2B is some mix of Holt/Hernandez/Chavis/Moreland/Pearce we should be very happy with that.
    Considering that their two highest paid players are at 1st/3rd and they have like 6 major league caliber OF, I don't see what they would do with Dalbec.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban2.0 View Post
    Considering that their two highest paid players are at 1st/3rd and they have like 6 major league caliber OF, I don't see what they would do with Dalbec.
    True, I don't know their team to well or follow it. I guess my bigger point is Dalbec should be the trade bait for a reliever
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    Been a while, but let's not pretend Theo was some expert of keeping costs low. We have always been close to the luxury tax.
    Not sure if this has in mind what I said or not. DD has a few patterns in his career and one of them is building a team by going all-in on a few big-contract starts, esp SP, and then trying to nickle-and-dime the roster around them. In each case, the rosters became too top-heavy and fell apart pretty quickly. The Tigers still have not recovered in the years since DD left because the Farm was in such disarray.

    In terms of style, that's radically different from Theo. The Cubs built farm-first, just like in BOS. And they've sustained themselves by blending home-grown talent with external stars either signed in FA or by trade (also, same as BOS). Very, very different styles even when they drove near the CBT.

    Theo wasn't/isn't a penny pincher by any means. However, when he ran things then you could be sure that the CBT represented a ceiling to payroll. The Sox put a toe across the line when they felt that an investment was going to give them an edge, but that investment was most often a deadline acquisition. DD, on the other hand, started this season and last more than 30% over the CBT threshold.

    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    Okay for this deadline I am all about Kirby Yates, but it is about trading the right prospects away and if not just walk away.

    If the Padres would consider a deal of Dalbec and Shwaryn for Yates I do it. First it really fills a big need with a really good bullpen piece, and puts us squarely in the mix of being good enough to win the WS.
    I'm good with that deal as well. Dalbec/Cassas and Shawaryn for Yates is a decent swap for both sides. Neither Corner IF player has a clear path to the MLB roster in BOS.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    I don't see JD opting out, not this year or maybe ever. He is on the other side of 30, not great defensively. Just a really good hitter. He may get to a 3 WAR year. He knows someone like Ortiz who played well recently enough was getting 16 MM a year to essentially DH. He has to think that the 19+ is not going to be easy to get.
    Definitely disagree with this. JDM will be signing for his age-32 season and in a power-oriented game he will probably finish his fourth consecutive 30+ HR season. He's also leaving a legacy of making the hitters around him better -- not only for his presence in the lineup but in their approach to hitting in general. I don't believe that he has to think twice about whether or not he can land a $100M/5yr deal, which exceeds what he's currently due by almost $40M.

    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    I am not as concerned about payroll as some others. There is an increasing chance that Pedroia retires. Porcello, whether we resign him or not will not be making close to 20 Million per year.

    Sandoval is for the most part falling off. Same with Pearce and Nunez. The timing of our contracts and FAs makes it more manageable then you'd think. The FO is not afraid to go over the luxury tax in a given year that is not within consecutive years.
    Pedroia should retire. Whether or not he does so, and does it in a way that helps the Red Sox, remains to be seen.

    That said, opening day payroll as calculated for the CBT was around $239M. Roughly $63M comes off for expiring contracts besides Pedroia (Sandoval, Moreland/Pearce, Porcello, Nunez, Holt, Thornburg). Sale and Bogaerts reduce that by $22M from the raises they got from their extensions. Call it more or less $200M as a starting point.

    Barnes, Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, Devers, Rodriguez all get nice raises next year (Devers will be small but DD has a history of rewarding kids like that). I'd put this at $10M-12M for those 5 players. I'm also going to suggest that they will retain Cashner on his 2020 option ($10M) with the rotation looking like Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Rodriguez, and Cashner. Just for kicks, let's assume that JDM opts out. These salary increases offset the $22M he's opting out of.

    We're sitting at roughly $200M and the same roster that has carried the Sox through most of the summer. Perhaps this was the DD pitch -- "we can reset the payroll pretty quickly while keeping the core together." We'd lack a DH (not necessarily a big deal) and probably want some BP pieces. I would be careful about how the contracts are handed out because of Betts/Benintendi demanding that money in very short order.

    It's not a terrible position by any stretch of the imagination -- we'd mostly need complimentary pieces.

  14. #14
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    Hm, I've been going back and forth on whether this team deserves the capital investment that it'd take to get a good RP. The price for Diaz appears to be way too high (Benintendi? no thanks). Other arms that are controlled beyond 2019 are in a similar boat. If Price and Sale were more consistent then I might think it's worth the investment but right now I am not sure.

    Looking beyond this year, I wonder if standing pat is a better option. Dalbec might be blocked at 3B but that's assuming the Devers is a fixture there. The latter isn't always great in the field and Dalbec has the potential to be above average. Maybe a position change keeps both young hitters? If things broke well, I could see Chavis, Dalbec, Devers, and Hernandez mixing-and-matching around 1B/2B/3B and possibly helping in the DH slot (that I assume JDM vacates). Cassas could impact that rotation as well but I think that he's too far away to really consider.

    It's worth noting that both Dalbec and Cassas have k-rates that are concerning. That's also part of the reason that I'm on the fence. The k-rates don't historically suggest effective MLB bats... but they may be okay if the power-oriented game stays in effect for a while. The power potential for both is compelling; I definitely see Cassas moving over to 1B as well.
    Last edited by RedSoxtober; 07-31-2019 at 01:00 PM.

  15. #15
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    IMO I think DD stands pat. Target big names in the off season. I mean I wouldn't be surprised to see 1 move but it probably won't be a big name. Will Smith example UFA next year we can target him if Giants don't tag him. So It's either we stand pat where we are or get 1 reliever that's low cost to us.

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