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Thread: 2019 Season

  1. #46
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    I guess that's partially where I disagree. Fast runner on 2nd who should get a good jump with 2 outs its definitely not a stop every time unless it's the 9th. I agree in that spot he should have held him because it was hit pretty hard, but that situation results in a score quite often.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I guess that's partially where I disagree. Fast runner on 2nd who should get a good jump with 2 outs its definitely not a stop every time unless it's the 9th. I agree in that spot he should have held him because it was hit pretty hard, but that situation results in a score quite often.
    Come on crewfan. He should be held unless it's a ball Aggy can score on standing. If you're a 3B coach and you aren't aware of who's on deck, score etc. then you shouldn't be doing it. With Yelich on deck you don't send him especially how locked in he is.

    The offense by and large sucks but Arcia and Moose are basically where I expect them to be, Moose has a high OBP compared to his career actually. Braun isn't a 3-hitter anymore not sure why CC keeps putting him there. A .219 OBP right now. Woof.

    On the pitching it's quite simple. Peralta won't ever be a consistent starter with just a fastball. For Burnes he needs to throw his offspeed a lot more. Right now hitters don't need to sit back at all. Fastball 96, slider 90 can adjust and foul off. But if he throws changeup and curve to make them honor it he would be a lot better. Migght need him to move to pen anyway. The middle relief and the road to Hader is brutal.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by gopackgo87 View Post
    Come on crewfan. He should be held unless it's a ball Aggy can score on standing. If you're a 3B coach and you aren't aware of who's on deck, score etc. then you shouldn't be doing it. With Yelich on deck you don't send him especially how locked in he is.

    The offense by and large sucks but Arcia and Moose are basically where I expect them to be, Moose has a high OBP compared to his career actually. Braun isn't a 3-hitter anymore not sure why CC keeps putting him there. A .219 OBP right now. Woof.

    On the pitching it's quite simple. Peralta won't ever be a consistent starter with just a fastball. For Burnes he needs to throw his offspeed a lot more. Right now hitters don't need to sit back at all. Fastball 96, slider 90 can adjust and foul off. But if he throws changeup and curve to make them honor it he would be a lot better. Migght need him to move to pen anyway. The middle relief and the road to Hader is brutal.
    It wasn't Aggy it was Perez. And that's the point, Perez is fast and a good baserunner. I agree he shouldn't have sent him but I don't think it's as cut and dry as people think. And let's all acknowledge that yelich isn't actually getting the at bat there. They for sure walk him.
    Last edited by crewfan13; 04-19-2019 at 05:20 PM.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    It wasn't Aggy it was Perez. And that's the point, Perez is fast and a good baserunner. I agree he shouldn't have sent him but I don't think it's as cut and dry as people think. And let's all acknowledge that yelich isn't actually getting the at bat there. They for sure walk him.
    I disagree with this completely. It was cut and dry. You never ever in that situation send him. I don't expect that we'll go the whole year without a runner being thrown out at home, but that is an unacceptable outcome given the situation and how the play turned out. Billy Hamilton could have been running and you don't send him there.

    I also don't think they're walking Yelich there. Even against great hitters you rarely would see a team walk a guy to put the tying run on base and go ahead run at the plate. You'd take your chances with Yelich.

  5. #50
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    There's no doubt they walk him in my mind. You have the reigning mvp who's hitting 350 with a nearly 450 obp and was 3rd in basrball in home runs vs a guy who's currently hitting sub 200 with an obp of 221.

    And even then, current season math works out to even if we hold Perez, we have about a 37% chance of scoring a run that inning. (math assumes 35% chance yelich gets a hit and 10% chance he walks, then about a 20% chance Braun reaches base if yeli walks.) You can't be dumb and it's better to be conservative, but 1 run in the 8th does still matter. That's why for me that isn't a never run situation.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    There's no doubt they walk him in my mind. You have the reigning mvp who's hitting 350 with a nearly 450 obp and was 3rd in basrball in home runs vs a guy who's currently hitting sub 200 with an obp of 221.

    And even then, current season math works out to even if we hold Perez, we have about a 37% chance of scoring a run that inning. (math assumes 35% chance yelich gets a hit and 10% chance he walks, then about a 20% chance Braun reaches base if yeli walks.) You can't be dumb and it's better to be conservative, but 1 run in the 8th does still matter. That's why for me that isn't a never run situation.
    That was a never run situation because of how the ball was hit. If that's in the gap maybe its a bit different, but it was a hard hit ball right to him. I'm never sending him there unless he's walking home.

    I still think they pitch to Yelich there. Tie ball game and you're right they walk him, but they're not about to bring the go ahead run to the plate. Hell even a hit to the wall and Yelich can score from first. It would be too much risk to walk him. Dodgers walked Yelich while they were down (again different situation) and Braun knocked it out of the park.

  7. #52
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    And that was afterr this situation.Yelich was the hottest hitter in baseball. Braun was far from it. The fact they did it later in the series probably lends more credit to the fact they probably would have done it there.

  8. #53
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    Different situation entirely. You don't bring the go ahead runner to the plate.

  9. #54
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    Doesn't matter now, but all those little rules of thumb don't factor in who's at the plate. It's easy to say never bring the winning run to the plate, but none of that considers you have one of the top 5 hitters currently on the planet at the plate and an ice cold hitter behind him. But ultimately we'll never know.

  10. #55
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    "It wasn't Aggy it was Perez. And that's the point, Perez is fast and a good baserunner. I agree he shouldn't have sent him but I don't think it's as cut and dry as people think. And let's all acknowledge that yelich isn't actually getting the at bat there. They for sure walk him."

    I know Perez was the runner ding-dong was saying unless Aggy could score standing you don't send the runner right there with Yelich on deck. If they walk Yelich Braun is the go-ahead run.

    Man the Brewers pitching is rough. Not sure what's worse the starters or the middle relief at this point.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by gopackgo87 View Post
    Man the Brewers pitching is rough. Not sure what's worse the starters or the middle relief at this point.
    Its two huge issues we're seeing right now. Walks and homeruns. We keep walking guys which is a huge issue and pet peeve of mine, guys are pros throw some strikes. Then to make it worse we're allowing homeruns after walks. Both are a product of poor command. Not sure if that's an issue with talent, catching (Grandal), or the new pitching coach.

  12. #57
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    I think it is a tad early to blame one thing or another, however with 3 basically rookie pitchers I assumed we would have some duds. However it's been way to many and the pen is what is most concerning to me. Last year our pen looked pretty similar at the start of the year we had Knebel and Hader and not much else. This year it is Hader and now Jeffress (not that Jeffress has looked great) and not much else. last year we had guys step up early in the year like Jeffress and Albers (until he got hurt and fell off a cliff). This year no one is coming close to stepping up mostly just falling down (except Guerra).

  13. #58
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    I'm far from worried. Just need guys to throw strikes. It would also help to get a nice easy series to build some confident in a few pitchers or bats. That's what makes this brutal start to the season so difficult. There's nothing easy, no time to relax and breathe.

  14. #59
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    I'm a little more concerned than you, but your point about schedule is very true. It's been brutal to say the least. At the end of the day, we are done with the dodgers for the year already. We dont see the cubs again until late July and we don't see the cards again until August.

    I know pitt's record is good, but they aren't a super scary team to me. The nl east and west both have some good teams, but outside the dodgers, I don't thibk anyone from those divisions are clearly better, so we should play those teams fine.

  15. #60
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    Saw an interesting stat today. Someone crunched the numbers on what the expected run total of the brewers opponents should be (based on offensive output so far this year) vs what the brewers have given up, and the expected runs were 0.1 total runs less than what we've given up. That's not per game, that's total.

    While the numbers are rough, we're basically pitching at the expected level of the opponents offense. So it's essentially saying our pitching as a whole I probably at roughly league average right now.

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