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Thread: 2019 Season

  1. #241
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    Gotta be looking for a sweep against the Pirates too. They aren't trying. The effort the put up against the Cubs was atrocious.

  2. #242
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    Love these series where two teams ahead of us play each other. As long as we keep winning, it doesn't matter who wins those games since either result helps us. Ideally we'd still steal the divisional title to avoid the wild card (and also avoid the dodgers in the first round) but I'll take playoffs either way.

  3. #243
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Love these series where two teams ahead of us play each other. As long as we keep winning, it doesn't matter who wins those games since either result helps us. Ideally we'd still steal the divisional title to avoid the wild card (and also avoid the dodgers in the first round) but I'll take playoffs either way.
    Why are the Brewers p[layoff odds so low? I saw 39 percent before last night's game? With their schedule and the Cubs and Cards playing each other 7 times in final 11 games? I would say Brewers have a great chance to get in the playoffs. The pitching has been fantastic of late. The offense doing just enough to win games. Hiura and Woodruff return last night...things are looking up for the Crew. Glanville on ESPN picked the Brewers as the team to miss the playoffs too.

  4. #244
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    My guess is because on paper were the worst team. Our run differential is awful, which that type of data feeds alot of that stuff. And that's my guess for most of that stuff. It's all fed by an algorithm and those algorithms likely dont think we're going to play as well as we have been over the last couple weeks because the advanced stats don't have us being as good as our record indicates.

    I agree we have a good shot if we continue to play well. But I'm not shocked we have the lowest odds. For what it's worth, espn has our odds at 55%, but that's still the lowest of us, at Louis, Chicago and Washington.

  5. #245
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    My guess is because on paper were the worst team. Our run differential is awful, which that type of data feeds alot of that stuff. And that's my guess for most of that stuff. It's all fed by an algorithm and those algorithms likely dont think we're going to play as well as we have been over the last couple weeks because the advanced stats don't have us being as good as our record indicates.

    I agree we have a good shot if we continue to play well. But I'm not shocked we have the lowest odds. For what it's worth, espn has our odds at 55%, but that's still the lowest of us, at Louis, Chicago and Washington.
    No I get on paper us not having the best team without Yelich etc. but the schedule makes it obvious the Brewers have a great shot to get in. Only 1 game out of the #1 WC. Tied with #2 WC and Cards and Cubs play each other over 60 percent of the remaining games. I mean the schedule...the Pirates have given up it appears. I would say the Brewers right now have a better shot than the Cubs to get in the playoffs. The Cubs need to take it to the Cardinals and if they do, the Brewers jump them too. I mean on paper just the way the schedule works out I think the Brewers have a great shot to get in. Not sure about Nats schedule...the pitching has been great. CC has shown he knows how to win in Sept. with expanded rosters.

  6. #246
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    But the point is those things are built on alot of factors, including schedule, but also alot of advanced metrics. And by the advanced metrics, it's likely we aren't huge favorites down the stretch. So they probably expect the cubs and cards to mostly spilt and then win most of their other games as the advanced stats like then more. They probably project us to go around .500 the rest of the way tok because they probably don't actually expect us to play much above .500 ball either. Not saying it's right or it's wrong but that's very likely the reason.

    I mean, baseball prospectus has 3 different measures of their expected winning percentage and basically all of them have the brewers as a worse team than our record Indicates. So it's very likely their metrics don't imagine we are going to go more than .500ish the rest of the year.

  7. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    But the point is those things are built on alot of factors, including schedule, but also alot of advanced metrics. And by the advanced metrics, it's likely we aren't huge favorites down the stretch. So they probably expect the cubs and cards to mostly spilt and then win most of their other games as the advanced stats like then more. They probably project us to go around .500 the rest of the way tok because they probably don't actually expect us to play much above .500 ball either. Not saying it's right or it's wrong but that's very likely the reason.

    I mean, baseball prospectus has 3 different measures of their expected winning percentage and basically all of them have the brewers as a worse team than our record Indicates. So it's very likely their metrics don't imagine we are going to go more than .500ish the rest of the year.
    And this is the issue with looking strictly at analytics. While I'm sure there's a number that explains anything, its extremely difficult to get a cumulative stat that works.

    One thing I love about Stearns approach is that he looks at things from a different angle. Crewfan and I argue about this a lot, just because everyone else does things one way doesn't mean you have to use the same metrics. Run differential with the Brewers is a prime example of a misleading statistic. The Brewers do not use their top relievers when losing. Which often means that we lose a lot of games by a large margin. But conversely we manage to hold a lot of leads when games are close because our reliever are well rested.

  8. #248
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    And this is the issue with looking strictly at analytics. While I'm sure there's a number that explains anything, its extremely difficult to get a cumulative stat that works.

    One thing I love about Stearns approach is that he looks at things from a different angle. Crewfan and I argue about this a lot, just because everyone else does things one way doesn't mean you have to use the same metrics. Run differential with the Brewers is a prime example of a misleading statistic. The Brewers do not use their top relievers when losing. Which often means that we lose a lot of games by a large margin. But conversely we manage to hold a lot of leads when games are close because our reliever are well rested.
    I get it but not like run differential is a terrible factor when judging just how good teams are...only 5 playoff teams ever with negative run differential. I expect could see more with 5 now making it in each league, though. The Pirates have given up and should be a sweep for the Brewers, hopefully can win finale today, but right there the Brewers are likely to be at the very least tied with the Cubs and probably up by at least a game if that happens. Fingers crossed.

    Arcia non-tender after the season? I expect he is brought back, but he's been anemic this year, worst wrc+ season by an offensive player....ever. Also advanced metrics suggest he is overvalued as a defender. He is great at coming in on a ball and throwing on the run, but range-wise and everything else he is middle of the pack for SS pretty much. In no way does his defense make up for lack of offense, especially now with Moose back at natural spot at 3B.

  9. #249
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    That's where I'm at too. I'm all about looking to zig while others zag, but you have to be smart about it though too. Run differential isn't the end all be all, but it's typically a decent sign of roster quality.

    And with the September call-up rules changing next year, we can't rely on the craziness of expanded rosters to save us. We postured that we needed a 14-6 finish to give us a decent chance. That was after a 3-1 series win over the cubs. But building a team that depends on a great record in 1 run games, which statistics have shown is really hard to sustain long term, and red hot sember runs like the 17-7 we sort of need to make the playoffs probably isn't a good long term plan.

    Sure when we're in it we should take advantage of it, but we shouldn't roll out the same plan next year and keep expecting this to work.

    I know we use the 2015 Royals as an example of a target to shoot for. That team had a +6 record in 1 run games. We are currently +8 I believe and we're +14 last year. That's really hard to sustain, even for teams like KC who had basically 3 bullpen aces. And that KC team was tied for 5th in baseball in run differential.

    We've basically been 5 games or so back in early September for 2 straight seasons. Weve been able to overcome that for 2 straight years, regardless of whether we make it this year, we got the wild card down to tied.

  10. #250
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    I know I'd rather win the division, but that seems tougher now and a situation where we could win the division probably also means things get really tight in the wild card. So any result can be a positive but I wouldnt hate it if the cards would kind of put it on the cubs, give us a little breathing room and maybe allow us to rest the pen the last day or 2 to line things up for the wild card game.

  11. #251
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    That's where I'm at too. I'm all about looking to zig while others zag, but you have to be smart about it though too. Run differential isn't the end all be all, but it's typically a decent sign of roster quality.

    And with the September call-up rules changing next year, we can't rely on the craziness of expanded rosters to save us. We postured that we needed a 14-6 finish to give us a decent chance. That was after a 3-1 series win over the cubs. But building a team that depends on a great record in 1 run games, which statistics have shown is really hard to sustain long term, and red hot sember runs like the 17-7 we sort of need to make the playoffs probably isn't a good long term plan.

    Sure when we're in it we should take advantage of it, but we shouldn't roll out the same plan next year and keep expecting this to work.

    I know we use the 2015 Royals as an example of a target to shoot for. That team had a +6 record in 1 run games. We are currently +8 I believe and we're +14 last year. That's really hard to sustain, even for teams like KC who had basically 3 bullpen aces. And that KC team was tied for 5th in baseball in run differential.

    We've basically been 5 games or so back in early September for 2 straight seasons. Weve been able to overcome that for 2 straight years, regardless of whether we make it this year, we got the wild card down to tied.
    I don't think its exactly fair to compare this season's team with last seasons. Its clear that last season we hard a better team, especially in the bullpen. We also need to point out that last season we were comfortably in the playoffs. This year's team on the other hand is fighting to stay alive and barely hanging on.

    I do like trying to emulate what the Royals have done, but I don't think this season's team is really doing that. Right now we are scraping by against some bad teams, and the only reason we have a chance is because several teams have underachieved this season.

    I also agree that the September call up change is going to hurt the Brewers strategy. The last two seasons we've been able to rely on our depth in September to make a push. This change, I believe, will really help big market clubs that don't need to rely on bullpenning to win.

  12. #252
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    September 1st last year we were in the 2nd wild card spot, behind the cards by a half game and had 4 teams within 3 games behind us. We were also 3.5 out of the division race. So at that point, we were definitely better than this year, but hardly a sure thing.

    The last 2 years our winning percentage from the start of the year through August is .537. Our winning percentage in September through the end of the regular season is .750. So yes, last year's team was better but they also needed a red hot September to mak their run.

    And my point with last year's team is that they probably weren't as good as the record indicates. They got all star performances our of Aguilar and jeffress, both of whom are unlikely to ever reach that level again. Cain bested his previous career high in obp by 30 pts at age 32 and has a career high in steals. Hader may have had a career year. Gio, Freddy and Miley combined to throw roughly 200 innings of sub 3 era baseball. Chacin had a career year.

    And sure, some guys underachieved. But the point is building a team of guys where you get some pretty massive over achievers and also need a red hot September to be one of the best teams isn't really a sustainable way of building a team.

  13. #253
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    September 1st last year we were in the 2nd wild card spot, behind the cards by a half game and had 4 teams within 3 games behind us. We were also 3.5 out of the division race. So at that point, we were definitely better than this year, but hardly a sure thing.

    The last 2 years our winning percentage from the start of the year through August is .537. Our winning percentage in September through the end of the regular season is .750. So yes, last year's team was better but they also needed a red hot September to mak their run.

    And my point with last year's team is that they probably weren't as good as the record indicates. They got all star performances our of Aguilar and jeffress, both of whom are unlikely to ever reach that level again. Cain bested his previous career high in obp by 30 pts at age 32 and has a career high in steals. Hader may have had a career year. Gio, Freddy and Miley combined to throw roughly 200 innings of sub 3 era baseball. Chacin had a career year.

    And sure, some guys underachieved. But the point is building a team of guys where you get some pretty massive over achievers and also need a red hot September to be one of the best teams isn't really a sustainable way of building a team.
    Pirates sweep as Brewers should but now a big test with the Reds in Cincy IMO. Reds playing pretty well and Gray throws opener. Hopefully can snag 2 of 3. Would be nice to play Nats at MP and hopefully they can't save Scherzer for that game as they need a win in final game.

  14. #254
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    Problem is scherzer isn't the only guy they have. And apparently he's been struggling a bit in the 2nd half. Still a phenomenal pitcherz but so are strasburg and Corbin.

  15. #255
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Problem is scherzer isn't the only guy they have. And apparently he's been struggling a bit in the 2nd half. Still a phenomenal pitcherz but so are strasburg and Corbin.
    I feel like the Brewers have done well vs. Strasburg in his career and Corbin doesn't strike fear in people the way Scherzer does. But LHP seem to do well vs Brewers but again I like the Brewers chances vs. anyone not named Scherzer.

    *Just looked it up..Strasburg 0-3 with a 4.88 ERA vs. Brewers.

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