2019 Season

[gopackgo87]

My favorite thing is he said I'm on his ignore list for being an idiot, and he's clearly searching my posts out specifically and trying to find me since I haven't been posting on the bucks forum. Guy seems pretty desperate doesn't he. I've checked the bucks forum here and there but not near as much as I used to. I'd imagine he's posting trade ideas over there every day and I can just picture him seething at his computer since no one is there to refute him besides MILLERHIGHLIFE, who's back now.

LOL. He also says he knows it all and makes up things like the Beal trade that was going to happen except for whatever dumba$$ thing he said. Yeah I hardly go on there unless it's bucks season because of him. We are right on a lot of predictions he gets one right and bam! He says we are idiots. lol.

Twellner, the Brewers are probably most disappointed. I agree there wasn't the same feel but that's because everything fell right for Brewers last year - or as much as you can expect - and this year everything they tried failed basically. Peralta and Burnes disasters in rotation. They both don't have the pitch repetroire right now to be in a rotation. Why I like Big Woo and Houser. Their stuff plays and they have four pitch arsenal. But the injuries to the entire rotation and so many injuries has led to this. Not the same depth either. Dropoff to backups is steep it seems this year. Knebel and Wahl out before the year. Chacin from ace to trash. If you said all the things that went wrong this year before the year what would you guess their record would be?

[crewfan13]

But even if we did exceed expectations a year ago, the bigger problem is that in a year where the Cubs have also been really poor we couldn't take advantage. We didn't need to win 96 games this season to win the division, saying we took a step back is an understatement. And while guys have stepped back we also added bats like Huira, Grandal, a full season of Moose, Yelich has improved, etc.

Stats/Talent aside this team IMO just never had the same positive outlook as last year's team. They seem depressed half the time, overwhelmed even. It seems like a lot of players are caving to pressure.

Last year, we out performed our run differential by 5 wins. So starting with that base, prior to any player growth or decline, we were more like a true 91 win team than a 96 win team. Then if we look at our FIP vs ERA, which isn't factored into that 91 win number yet, we'll see that we finished the year 5th in ERA but 13th in FIP. If FIP is a better indicator of expected performance, which studies show it is, then we should hav been in the 10-15 range for pitching era, not top 5. So thats another couple wins there if you give that back.

I dont think with just those two things, it's unreasonable to say last year's 96 win team was closer to the true talent of an 85-87 win team. And if that's the case, we actually aren't far off that pace this yearx with a winning percentage that puts us at 83 wins for a full season. And that's with better performance as a whole at 2nd and C, slightly better at 3B and SS, but worse at 1B and CF. Then regression as a whole from the pen and staff.

At the end of the day, the offense is about where it was at last year. Thats somewhat disappointing seeing that we added there in FA, but regression from Cain and Aggy was to be expected. As a whole, the offense still under performed somewhat, but the bulk of the difference was the pitching era, which was probably unrealistically low last yearx wasn't sustained by either the starters or the pen. And that was within the realm of possibility given that we didn't make any real pitching additions and were relying on unproven young guys with an "Ace" coming off a career year in Chacin.

[ThomasTomasz]

IIRC that was a multi-HR game and I know he is pretty high up the list for Brewers for multi-HR games.

Got it, that makes a lot of sense. Thanks!

[crewfan13]

This Cubs series is basically the season for us. If we can take 3/4 or get the sweep. He have a legit chance. If we lose 2 or more, we're basically done. We've all kind of said this team lacks something from last year, but if there was ever a time for a little magic and a hot streak, now would be perfect. Maybe last night kicked off one of those crazy hot thames surges he's capable of. Yeli is right in the MVP race and some big hits down the stretch could be enough to win it for him. Maybe this huge roster can unlock some of that bullpen magic from last year.

[gopackgo87]

This Cubs series is basically the season for us. If we can take 3/4 or get the sweep. He have a legit chance. If we lose 2 or more, we're basically done. We've all kind of said this team lacks something from last year, but if there was ever a time for a little magic and a hot streak, now would be perfect. Maybe last night kicked off one of those crazy hot thames surges he's capable of. Yeli is right in the MVP race and some big hits down the stretch could be enough to win it for him. Maybe this huge roster can unlock some of that bullpen magic from last year.

Be nice if Cain's bat wakes up for final month of season. Yeli stays hot. This team I think just needs someone to step up and get hot down the stretch that isn't expected to....like Arcia or Spangenberg. It doesn't feel like this team is capable but as you said if they can get past the Cubs the rest of the schedule is pretty favorable so if they can get 3 of 4 and then I believe it is Miami for 4? sweep them be nice but even 3 of 4 suddenly you've won 6 of 8 and are probably within a game

I was kind of wishing to see Tyrone Taylor come up even if hardly ever play or get ABs. When healthy has been raking last couple years and we all know how rare it is for Brewers prospects to have back-to-back strong seasons lol

[crewfan13]

Be nice if Cain's bat wakes up for final month of season. Yeli stays hot. This team I think just needs someone to step up and get hot down the stretch that isn't expected to....like Arcia or Spangenberg. It doesn't feel like this team is capable but as you said if they can get past the Cubs the rest of the schedule is pretty favorable so if they can get 3 of 4 and then I believe it is Miami for 4? sweep them be nice but even 3 of 4 suddenly you've won 6 of 8 and are probably within a game

I was kind of wishing to see Tyrone Taylor come up even if hardly ever play or get ABs. When healthy has been raking last couple years and we all know how rare it is for Brewers prospects to have back-to-back strong seasons lol

Interesting stats I just saw on Cain. Of the guys who have at least 100 hard hit balls, the mean batting average appears to be somewhere between .520 and .540. One player in baseball is hitting below .430. And that player is cain, who's hitting .380. That's wildly unlucky. I also saw a graph of expected vs actual wOBA and Cain is one of the biggest outliers there too. So while he's having a tough year, at least some of that is due to horrible luck. Hopefully that luck shifts the next couple weeks.

[gopackgo87]

Interesting stats I just saw on Cain. Of the guys who have at least 100 hard hit balls, the mean batting average appears to be somewhere between .520 and .540. One player in baseball is hitting below .430. And that player is cain, who's hitting .380. That's wildly unlucky. I also saw a graph of expected vs actual wOBA and Cain is one of the biggest outliers there too. So while he's having a tough year, at least some of that is due to horrible luck. Hopefully that luck shifts the next couple weeks.

Cain has hit 100 balls hard this year? Doesn't seem like it lol. Also Arcia coming into yesterday had a .478 OPS since the All-Star break. That is pathetic. That is grab a player from A or AA and they can do that. His defense makes up for some lack of offense but that isn't playable.

Pretty wild to see guys like Austin, Spangenberg, etc. contributing right now to wins. If this team can win at least 3 of 4 in MIA and Woody and Hiura come back....STL is the only tough team left on the slate....a 14-6 or so finish might get it done.

[crewfan13]

He's actually hit like 160 hard hit balls. He's been phenomenally unlucky this year. He's actually like 20-25 hard hits short. That's like a legit 40 pts in batting average. I'd imagine thats probably a win or two in total if he wasn't so unlucky in that regard. And that also assumes he doesn't settle in and take more walks if he had more hits fall in, because he was clearly pressing at times this year.

[crewfan13]

I was just looking at it too. 14-6 was the target I came up with as well. It doesn't guarantee you playoffs by any means, but 14-6 puts pressure on the cubs and diamondbacks. There's a chance you get in with less or that 14-6 isn't enough, but that puts you in an okay spot. It also means you take 3/4 from the marlins and Padres and 2/3 from the cards, reds, pirates and rockies. That's tough to do but not impossible.

[gopackgo87]

I was just looking at it too. 14-6 was the target I came up with as well. It doesn't guarantee you playoffs by any means, but 14-6 puts pressure on the cubs and diamondbacks. There's a chance you get in with less or that 14-6 isn't enough, but that puts you in an okay spot. It also means you take 3/4 from the marlins and Padres and 2/3 from the cards, reds, pirates and rockies. That's tough to do but not impossible.

Also I like the chances of making hay at home. Need the Marlins series, but I can see them sweeping the Pads or pirates at home. The series that worries me other than STL is Cincy. They have played the Brewers tough the last couple years and Suarez murders Brewers pitching.

If the Brewers can win 3 of 4 from MIA (or sweep), take at least 1 in STL; then come back and win 6 of 7 at home vs SD and PIT...that's 13 wins in 17 games....counting last 3 vs CHI, that will get it done. The Brewers have had to have great Sept. runs in 2008 and last year to take the division and both great runs at home...then win 4 of 6 to finish at CIN and COL. 90 wins is usually the mark I aim for to get in or basically ensure you get a berth most years....I predicted around 88-89 wins before the season....Would be quite a feat to get in but I think it's doable especially if KH and Big Woo can make it back here with 15 games left.

[crewfan13]

I usually never count on a sweep but any sweep would be great. It's just so hard to sweep and every big league team is capable of a hot game at the plate or on the mound. But if we can really hammer the bad teams, it does give us a little more leeway. Eithwr way I think we have a big of a letdown and finish closer to even the rest of the way.

[gopackgo87]

I usually never count on a sweep but any sweep would be great. It's just so hard to sweep and every big league team is capable of a hot game at the plate or on the mound. But if we can really hammer the bad teams, it does give us a little more leeway. Eithwr way I think we have a big of a letdown and finish closer to even the rest of the way.

That could be but the Missions are keeping the Brewers in it and guys like Moose, Hiura coming back soon is a great sign. Suter is such a great influence on a clubhouse and this team finally seems to have that energy again thanks to so many contributions vs Cubs from guys like Gamel, Austin, Spangenberg...team has to feel good where they are with the schedule they have now and getting healthier.

[twellner9]

That could be but the Missions are keeping the Brewers in it and guys like Moose, Hiura coming back soon is a great sign. Suter is such a great influence on a clubhouse and this team finally seems to have that energy again thanks to so many contributions vs Cubs from guys like Gamel, Austin, Spangenberg...team has to feel good where they are with the schedule they have now and getting healthier.

Tried to tell you the team lacked energy and an "it" factor . Suter, as well as guys like Spangenberg, have provided some much needed energy. Plus I like the different approaches we've had at the plate lately. Finally someone willing to bunt. Not every guy in the lineup should be swinging for the fences.

I often wonder when left handed hitters don't learn the Ichiro style slap hit to beat the shift. Its a semi bunt, with the big advantages being that 1. you hit it hard enough to get extra bases and 2. if you foul it off you don't strike out. So many teams just giving away doubles if a guy can poke it down the line. Gotta figure someone will learn to take advantage of that.

[crewfan13]

Probably because hitting is hard and ichiro was one of the best hitters of all time. Plus teams just modify the shift and put the 3rd baseman closer to third and make you hit it up the middle to the shortstop side.

Plus I don't buy the it factor all that might. Usually, the it factor is winning. Teams that are winning always seem to have more fun and play looser. That it factor can easily go away if we lose 2 of the next 3. Im glad we seem to be playing loose right now but I don't think it's some secret formula that suter and company unlocked. To me, it's more just that we've gotten some big wins and wins are fun and success can stack like that. Hopefully we keep it running.

[twellner9]

Probably because hitting is hard and ichiro was one of the best hitters of all time. Plus teams just modify the shift and put the 3rd baseman closer to third and make you hit it up the middle to the shortstop side.

Plus I don't buy the it factor all that might. Usually, the it factor is winning. Teams that are winning always seem to have more fun and play looser. That it factor can easily go away if we lose 2 of the next 3. Im glad we seem to be playing loose right now but I don't think it's some secret formula that suter and company unlocked. To me, it's more just that we've gotten some big wins and wins are fun and success can stack like that. Hopefully we keep it running.

You can win while playing under stress and you can lose playing loose. The two aren't mutually exclusive. I'd argue the Patriots aren't a loose group at all and they win more than anyone. The Yankees/Dodgers/Cardinals have all traditionally been a very tight playing group with a ton of success. I just think this particular Brewers club needed some guys that came in an approached the game a different way, not just Suter but Spangenburg played a big role in accomplishing that.

I'd agree, hitting is difficult. I certainly am not good enough to be an MLB player. That being said, just poking the ball the opposite way is easier to do that squaring it up. If the defense put a guy closer to third so you can't do that, great. That's what we want isn't it? To open up the middle more?