2019 Season

[jay87shot]

I'm predicting 93-59 we are a wildcard team. I think one of the Cubs or Cards will have a great season and one of them will stumble.

What does our 25 man look like to start the year ?

Here is my prediction
1)Cain 2)Yeli 3)Agi 4)Shaw 5)Braun 6)Moose 7)Grandal 8)Arcia
Bench=Pina, Perez, Gamel, Thames, Spangenberg

Rotation= Chacin, Nelson, Woodruff, Burnes, Anderson
Pen=Hader, Knebel, Williams, Barnes, Claudio, Albers, Peralta (Jeffress on DL)

12 pitchers/13 position maybe switch in another pen option after 3/4 weeks. I put Peralta in the pen thinking maybe you do like a duel starter and have Burnes, Nelson, or Woodruff go 4 and Peralta go 4 and reduce the load on those guys and on the pen all while keeping Peralta strectched out if someone gets injured.

[crewfan13]

I thought I already saw a beat guy indicate they are probably going 13 pitchers to start the year. Maybe they adjust that for off days. I think counsel has also pretty much said Nelson won't be ready for opening day.

So I'd probably drop Nelson and spangenberg, and add in Guerra and maybe Zach Davies. I think Guerra has a good shot at earning a pen spot. He might actually be above Barnes. If Guerra can get the mindset right, he has the makings of a pretty good reliever with that split he throws. Plus he's another guy capable of giving you more than 1 inning if they want to get creative.

I also think if Peralta doesn't make the rotation, he probably is sent down to stay on a starter schedule.

And for batting order, just looking at what we've done historically, I would probably swap Braun and Aggy. But either way that offense is much more potent than it was last year.

[twellner9]

I thought I already saw a beat guy indicate they are probably going 13 pitchers to start the year. Maybe they adjust that for off days. I think counsel has also pretty much said Nelson won't be ready for opening day.

So I'd probably drop Nelson and spangenberg, and add in Guerra and maybe Zach Davies. I think Guerra has a good shot at earning a pen spot. He might actually be above Barnes. If Guerra can get the mindset right, he has the makings of a pretty good reliever with that split he throws. Plus he's another guy capable of giving you more than 1 inning if they want to get creative.

I also think if Peralta doesn't make the rotation, he probably is sent down to stay on a starter schedule.

And for batting order, just looking at what we've done historically, I would probably swap Braun and Aggy. But either way that offense is much more potent than it was last year.

Agree on Braun vs Aggy. I still really like Braun. Call me sentimental but his hard hit rate was too high last year for the numbers he put up. I still consider Braun to be our second most dangerous hitter. Hoping we can get more consistent contact out of the lineup this year. Defense will be a question mark.

Personally I think we should dump Thames. Kind of proved last season that he can't be a productive bench player, also he's not a good defender and not versatile. Not a good baserunner either. Outside of some occasional power streaks not sure what he provides. I'd take Saladino all day over Thames. Honest guess is Spangenberg is the odd man out though.

Side note, but I really find Manfred annoying. Leave the game alone. Every rule change they've made has made things worse. If they want to modify the mound or or strikezone to try and increase the swing rate I could be on board with that. But this whole 3 batter minimum, can't make contact running the bases, pitch clock timer, blah blah blah all awful.

[jay87shot]

I will admit I kind of forgot about Guerra, I agree he likely makes the team. If they go 13 pitchers I think there is a chance Patricka makes the team. I can see him or someone else beating out Barnes. I would guess Counsil tries Braun at 3, but in the long run I think Agi will be the guy. Peralta in AAA would be fine especially with Guerra as the long man.

I also heard we talked to Kimbrel yesterday, that would be nuts. Attanasio would be stretching out the pocket book pretty far but our pen would be insane. I could see 1/18-20 working if ownership wants a Championship that badly.

[twellner9]

I will admit I kind of forgot about Guerra, I agree he likely makes the team. If they go 13 pitchers I think there is a chance Patricka makes the team. I can see him or someone else beating out Barnes. I would guess Counsil tries Braun at 3, but in the long run I think Agi will be the guy. Peralta in AAA would be fine especially with Guerra as the long man.

I also heard we talked to Kimbrel yesterday, that would be nuts. Attanasio would be stretching out the pocket book pretty far but our pen would be insane. I could see 1/18-20 working if ownership wants a Championship that badly.

Forgot about that gambling money. Extra cash to spend, I'm guessing someone did some math and figured they could spend more. Plus the longer these things go the more likely it is we can afford them.

[crewfan13]

Forgot about that gambling money. Extra cash to spend, I'm guessing someone did some math and figured they could spend more. Plus the longer these things go the more likely it is we can afford them.

It's all cost analysis. How profitable or unprofitable are you willing to go if you're Mark A. One of the beautiful things that major league owners have done is convince us how tight the budget is. When in all actuality, we have no clue. We could still be operating at a significant profit and say we can't spend more. I imagine thats very much what the dodgers are doing with their TV deal. They're good enough to potentially win a title and still make massive amounts of money. It's the perfect formula.

So I always hesitate to say we found extra money or that Mark A is willing to operate at a loss or anything for a season. We truly have no idea how high the brewers payroll can go. And since the payers dont have any guranteed % of baseball income, there's no way to really check how teams are doing.

[crewfan13]

Agree on Braun vs Aggy. I still really like Braun. Call me sentimental but his hard hit rate was too high last year for the numbers he put up. I still consider Braun to be our second most dangerous hitter. Hoping we can get more consistent contact out of the lineup this year. Defense will be a question mark.

Personally I think we should dump Thames. Kind of proved last season that he can't be a productive bench player, also he's not a good defender and not versatile. Not a good baserunner either. Outside of some occasional power streaks not sure what he provides. I'd take Saladino all day over Thames. Honest guess is Spangenberg is the odd man out though.

Side note, but I really find Manfred annoying. Leave the game alone. Every rule change they've made has made things worse. If they want to modify the mound or or strikezone to try and increase the swing rate I could be on board with that. But this whole 3 batter minimum, can't make contact running the bases, pitch clock timer, blah blah blah all awful.

Thames actually grades out as a positive baserunner. And his obp is still good. If we get hit with injuries, he's capable of being the starter at 1st and be a good player. Spangenberg and saladino both have options. I don't see any reason to dump thames unless we actually get a legit return.

[twellner9]

Thames actually grades out as a positive baserunner. And his obp is still good. If we get hit with injuries, he's capable of being the starter at 1st and be a good player. Spangenberg and saladino both have options. I don't see any reason to dump thames unless we actually get a legit return.

Well I guess my argument against him is that I believe we get greater roster flexibility out of the other options and thus a greater chance to win with other players than we do with Thames. Even as an occasional starter against right handed pitching I'd rather Shaw plays first and we play one of our utility guys at third. I just don't see the upside of Thames. Guy strikes out like 40% of the time and a .306 OBP is nothing great.

[crewfan13]

Well I guess my argument against him is that I believe we get greater roster flexibility out of the other options and thus a greater chance to win with other players than we do with Thames. Even as an occasional starter against right handed pitching I'd rather Shaw plays first and we play one of our utility guys at third. I just don't see the upside of Thames. Guy strikes out like 40% of the time and a .306 OBP is nothing great.

And every projection system has him projected at a. 330 obp with a wRC+ of about 110, which is somewhat comfortably better than the rest of the bench.

And injuries will happen. It's something the brewers did very well last year. Don't harm the 40 man roster unnecessarily. The roster on day 1 isn't the roster on day 90 or the roster on September 1st.

There's a good chance thames is our most potent and best overall bat off the bench. He doesn't have options (technically he does but his contract states he cant be sent down without his permission.) Spangenberg and saldino both have options. Both are behind Perez as a utility guy. Spang can hit eighties better than lefties, so you could have him at 2nd against righties to give aggy a day off, but hes not a better hitter vs righties than thames. Nor is he a better defender than shaw at third.

[twellner9]

Projections are not the same as reality though. We all saw last season that when Thames was reduced to more of a backup role he fell off hard. Even worse as a pinch hitter. 40 PAs as a sub he hit .118....gross

[twellner9]

I guess for me it depends on the role we expect Thames to take. I consider him a backup player only, and I don't think he projects well as a backup. Conversely if we thought he would be splitting time I might have a more favorable outlook towards him. I also think that if a platoon because necessary it makes much more sense to have Shaw play first than Thames, especially after (making an assumption here) Huira gets called up and can play second.

[crewfan13]

But then you worry about that when or if hiura is ready. And that's part of my point too. Why weaken your lineup for opening day to garner some extra roster flexibility that you may not need for a month at least?

It's the exact reason Aguilar wasn't released last year. Braun and thames were the first basemen. Aguilar didnt have an obvious role. But thames and yelich got hurt early and Santana struggled. It facilitated Braun playing more in the OF and Aguilar got at bats at first.

Because like you said, you're making an assumption hiura will be ready. What if he isn't? Then Aguilar gets hurt and you're back to the Perez/spangenberg platoon at 2nd. And while I was okay with that platoon, as it could give you close to a league average bat, give me thames over that platoon any day of the week.

[twellner9]

I guess I could see that argument but I'm still extremely low on Thames. If the scenario comes around that Aguilar gets hurt I think we're in big trouble either way. Thames cannot hit lefties which means we'd need Braun or one of our other utility guys to play first in those games anyways. I don't think even a fully healthy Thames playing everyday adds much in terms of wins compared to what you might get from a better pinch hit type player.

[twellner9]

In other news, this whole bullpen injury thing is starting to worry me. Need a healthy Knebel to really be good.

[crewfan13]

The kimbrel rumors make more sense now. Sounds like knebel could be a serious one. I believe counsel said something like they are concerned about knebel.