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Thread: 2019 Season

  1. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    Brewers flat out need to be better at putting the ball in play. Just hitting homeruns or striking out isn't good enough. The offense doesn't produce nearly enough when we're not hitting homeruns.

    Side track thought, but I think there should be some factor of errors created on offense as a factor of offensive production. I was thinking about this with Braun. He's been on base several times due to catchers interference, and while its not a hit it is something that he's able to do that others aren't. Then I was thinking about fast players or players that hustle more or even just put the ball in play a lot. Those players should all create errors at a higher rate than those that don't which makes it IMO a factor of skill more so than a factor of luck.
    Brewers offense has been frustrating with getting runners on base and failing to get them in, but last night was flat out depressing. 1 hit. This team might be toast before end of August. Make or break stretch here. Need to find a win in STL and take care of Cubs...but this Brewers team just seems lethargic in a lot of aspects.

  2. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by gopackgo87 View Post
    Brewers offense has been frustrating with getting runners on base and failing to get them in, but last night was flat out depressing. 1 hit. This team might be toast before end of August. Make or break stretch here. Need to find a win in STL and take care of Cubs...but this Brewers team just seems lethargic in a lot of aspects.
    Agreed. I find this Brewers team incredibly boring to watch. I stood by for years while we were in last place and found those teams more exciting. This is the worst baseball has to offer IMO. To excitement with this team.

    I have to complain once more about CC and his managing of the lineups. We are moving players in/out of the lineup way too often. This leads to inconsistent play and because we are putting bad players out there so often it leads to holes in the lineup. The Braun case is perplexing, he hits far better when he's playing every day and yet we continue to rest him while he's perfectly healthy. Preventative maintenance my ***. This is baseball not basketball. He's either hurt or he's good to go, I do not see how resting him saves anything and it produces a worse product.

    I have the same opinion about every player on our roster. Platoons for lefty/righty are one thing, but all these rest days for no reason makes no sense. When healthy our best players should be out there every day. If they are hurt and need rest, fine, but otherwise I see no reason to sit guys. Giving bench players like Perez regular playing time (for what to keep him fresh?) makes zero sense to me.

  3. #168
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    The all or nothing approach bothers me at times, but that's sort of the direction the league is going. We sort of lead the way in some of that stuff, since we do strike out more than most, but as a whole, I don't get too worked up.

    I think the thing the frustrates me the most is I just don't see a path forward. It's likely we lose at least one, possibly both of Moose and grandal. Shaw could maybe replace Moose, but it's hard to have any confidence in him at the moment. And even if we do retain both, it's unlikely we have the money to improve our pitching staff.

    I think regardless of whether we think the problem is bullpen or starters, we need better pitching. And that will cost money. The only way to get it cheap is to take a bunch of fliers on guys and hope a few hit. And that's not really a great strategy, since you're relying on luck to an extent.

    But I just don't see a path forward where we can get back to the point where we are more than just a wild card contender. If we bring back Moose and Grandy, give Grisham time in the OF with a Braun/thames or shaw platoon at first, we could have a borderline top 10 offense if everything comes together. That being said, we'll have no money for pitching, which likely means we have a bottom 10 or at least below average pitching staff. If we let Moose and Grandy walk, then we probably have an average offense if all breaks right, but the money could be spent to get us average pitching, which still makes us an average to slightly above average team.

    Last year, everything broke right. We had some guys massively over achieve as starters and in the pen. Because of that we were legit contenders. I just don't see that happening again. And I'm not sure how we improve to a point where that does happen again. Our farm isn't great, so it's hard to see us getting much significant help internally or in a trade. Our only real hope would be huge bounce backs from burnes and Peralta, which I suppose is possible.

  4. #169
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    Also, I havent seen this before, but they apparently mentioned it on the cards TV broadcast, which someone posted to Twitter, but a few guys think the ball change is really hurting certain guys. The ball apparently has smaller seams and the ball itself is smoother. So the guys who are throwing splitters think this ball is really hard to throw that pitch with. So they are not throwing it as often, particularly jeffress and Guerra, both of whom would probably label their splitter as their best pitch. So I wonder if that's having an impact on certain guys.

  5. #170
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Also, I havent seen this before, but they apparently mentioned it on the cards TV broadcast, which someone posted to Twitter, but a few guys think the ball change is really hurting certain guys. The ball apparently has smaller seams and the ball itself is smoother. So the guys who are throwing splitters think this ball is really hard to throw that pitch with. So they are not throwing it as often, particularly jeffress and Guerra, both of whom would probably label their splitter as their best pitch. So I wonder if that's having an impact on certain guys.
    I understand that but JJ still needs to throw it. If he doesn't have that pitch he is below pedestrian. His curveball is horrible. HS pitchers have a better one. Or just throw a fastball with movement he has. Even if it's harder to hit JJ doesn't throw the splitter at all which may be because it's hard on arm and I think JJ hanging by a thread.

    As for the path forward it's going to be down the road, but Brewers need a group of young pitchers to come up at the same time. The kid from Santana trade, Ashby (really high on), Small could realistically come up in same year maybe 2021/2022. I think that's the path and hopefully Woody and Houser - who I like a ton and been bullish on them and tooting horns for a while - are still pitching well...I think that is the path forward. I actually like the guys in High-A range a few guys. The pen I think could turn around quickly next year. Hope Burnes comes back to being at least reliable, Wahl I like, Rasmussen could move up fast, Knebel, Hader....not unforseeable to think they can bounce back a bit and be a strength...but the offense could have big holes at C, 3B and 1B next year....I also think Hiura will have to move to 1B soon....he is poor in the field and that is being kind.

  6. #171
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    I'm not terribly worried about the future. I think our young starting pitching options are plentiful enough that I'm hopeful we can improve from within. I am still high on Burnes. I think what I've seen from Hauser. Factor in a Suter/Nelson/Peralta and hope one of them could impact the rotation. We still have a little depth in the minors if those guys fall through. We could prob use an innings eater but I'm confident we can get a vet for a reasonable price, hell bring back Gio.

    The bullpen is the bigger issue, but I'm hoping we can assume our back end will be far better. Hader needs to be better and I'm hoping Knebel comes back strong. Outside of them, maybe we can go get 1 more decent back end guy and hope to go bargain hunting for middle relief. The bullpen needs a major overhaul because there is not a single person out there I trust right now.

    Sitting Moose against the Cardinals (another big bat sitting for no reason in a big game) drives me insane. I know his career numbers against Wacha are not good, but him vs Perez is a no brainer. We need every game at this point and can't afford to be resting perfectly healthy players.

  7. #172
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    To me, the guys in the farm aren't aces really. They all sort of have a limited ceiling to an extent. Mayne they are insane and an outlier more like Kyle Hendricks, but for the most part, the best pitchers have great stuff. Alot of the guys who are coming up just have okay stuff to me. That's what worries me. To me, alot of those guys are at best #3 types, but realistically #4 types.

  8. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by gopackgo87 View Post
    I understand that but JJ still needs to throw it. If he doesn't have that pitch he is below pedestrian. His curveball is horrible. HS pitchers have a better one. Or just throw a fastball with movement he has. Even if it's harder to hit JJ doesn't throw the splitter at all which may be because it's hard on arm and I think JJ hanging by a thread.

    As for the path forward it's going to be down the road, but Brewers need a group of young pitchers to come up at the same time. The kid from Santana trade, Ashby (really high on), Small could realistically come up in same year maybe 2021/2022. I think that's the path and hopefully Woody and Houser - who I like a ton and been bullish on them and tooting horns for a while - are still pitching well...I think that is the path forward. I actually like the guys in High-A range a few guys. The pen I think could turn around quickly next year. Hope Burnes comes back to being at least reliable, Wahl I like, Rasmussen could move up fast, Knebel, Hader....not unforseeable to think they can bounce back a bit and be a strength...but the offense could have big holes at C, 3B and 1B next year....I also think Hiura will have to move to 1B soon....he is poor in the field and that is being kind.
    But if he can't locate it and it doesn't move, he can't really throw it. Fangraphs classifies it as a change-up, and he's throwing it noticeably less than last year. But if it's not working, he's kinda out of luck and I'm not sure how you change that at this point. If it's ball change related, that's kinda crappy.

  9. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    But if he can't locate it and it doesn't move, he can't really throw it. Fangraphs classifies it as a change-up, and he's throwing it noticeably less than last year. But if it's not working, he's kinda out of luck and I'm not sure how you change that at this point. If it's ball change related, that's kinda crappy.
    It can't be worse than his curveball, it just can't. I have a better curveball than him right now. Also I almost think it has to be arm related. Splitter is very hard on the arm. But have to at least show it. Guerra has a crappy split-change this year too but at least he throws it once in a while to put it in the hitters' mind.

    To the starters. I disagree. I think a couple of the high-A guys and Small and Kelly have great stuff. Ashby's offspeed is very good. They aren't Davies-types. The issue is eveyr starter closest to being ready are those types. Supak etc. I wish Zack Brown would get his sh** together. No matter position players or pitchers not many minor leaguers for Brewers have stacked good years consecutively together. Ray, Erceg, etc. Nottingham is putrid at AAA. 4 HRs with juiced balls and hitting .225 for a guy his size...yikes.

  10. #175
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    Quote Originally Posted by gopackgo87 View Post
    It can't be worse than his curveball, it just can't. I have a better curveball than him right now. Also I almost think it has to be arm related. Splitter is very hard on the arm. But have to at least show it. Guerra has a crappy split-change this year too but at least he throws it once in a while to put it in the hitters' mind.

    To the starters. I disagree. I think a couple of the high-A guys and Small and Kelly have great stuff. Ashby's offspeed is very good. They aren't Davies-types. The issue is eveyr starter closest to being ready are those types. Supak etc. I wish Zack Brown would get his sh** together. No matter position players or pitchers not many minor leaguers for Brewers have stacked good years consecutively together. Ray, Erceg, etc. Nottingham is putrid at AAA. 4 HRs with juiced balls and hitting .225 for a guy his size...yikes.
    I agree, I see plenty of front end guys out of our young group. Specifically I think both Woodruff and Burnes have elite stuff. I know Burnes had a down year but the pitch analytics indicate he should be far better than he was. I'm still expecting him to be a #1 or #2. Factor in we still have Chase and Davies to fill out the middle of the rotation, both guys are plenty serviceable. That to me leaves the 5th rotation spot with Burnes being somewhat of a question mark. So we need to grab one more starter (like I said bring back Gio) and assume or organizational depth will be good enough to cover up if Burnes fails again or if we have some injuries.

    Honest fact is not too many teams can survive 3-4 starters going down with injuries like the Brewers had.

  11. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    I agree, I see plenty of front end guys out of our young group. Specifically I think both Woodruff and Burnes have elite stuff. I know Burnes had a down year but the pitch analytics indicate he should be far better than he was. I'm still expecting him to be a #1 or #2. Factor in we still have Chase and Davies to fill out the middle of the rotation, both guys are plenty serviceable. That to me leaves the 5th rotation spot with Burnes being somewhat of a question mark. So we need to grab one more starter (like I said bring back Gio) and assume or organizational depth will be good enough to cover up if Burnes fails again or if we have some injuries.

    Honest fact is not too many teams can survive 3-4 starters going down with injuries like the Brewers had.
    What makes Woodruff good isn't his fastball but his other pitches. He has 3 above average pitches - including fastball. Same with Houser. Burnes only has two pitches. Fastball slider. That isn't enough to be a starter. Unless he develops a third pitch he can be confident in, he is a pen guy and not a No. 1 or 2 starter. Woodruff is a legit horse. He can be an ace and is probably close to that now considering the way pitching is trending with short starts. Woodruff should be signed to an extension immediately. Houser is similar too. He has three good pitches and throws four. That's why I liked them from the start and why I wanted Houser in the rotation. When it comes to Devin Williams I think he right now has a better chance of Burnes being a starter because of his ability to throw multiple pitches for strikes and he developed a really good change. Burnes develops a change and look out he can bounce back quick. If not he's a pen guy.

  12. #177
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    I'm not giving up on burnes by any means, but there's absolutely no way you can go into next year banking on him being a #2 quality. I mean, your correct that his advanced peripherals were better than his stats but his FIP and dra were both above 5. His xfip was sub 4, but thats a bit of a disputed stat. Some people love it and some are very skeptical of xfip.

    So I would still give him chances, there's no way I'm banking on him being close to a number 2 in the next season or two until he shows some signs of life.

    And I like small. He was a good pick. But there's a real chance his average fastball lubes below 90. There's not a massive history of success for those types. There's a chance he turns into a Kyle Hendricks. There's a chance his velocity ticks up. But I don't bank on that stuff. The report around him coming out was always anticipating him as a number 4 type. I think thats very realistic. And that's how I do most of my evals. Everyone has a best case and worst case, but the best bet is to look at most likely case, or even something like a slight over achieve case. And I don't see top line in many of the guys we have.

    Even Kelly. Great stuff, but his realistic scenario is probably a really good pen guy. Ashby is a bit of a wild card yet. Only threw at juco. Good numbers professionally so far, but nothing crazy overwhelming. Guys like supak and zavolis seem like smart, solid pitchers who just don't have the stuff to even be a mod rotation guy. Most likely they are back end rotation types or middle to 7th or 8th inning RP types. Theres always a chance they modify a grip and unlock something unexpected. There's a chance their location hones is so well they consistently paint the black. But for most those guys, that's a for sure best case scenario.

  13. #178
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    Burnes has a decent curveball. His pitching splits are okay. He throws 57% fastballs, 31% sliders, 8% curveballs, and 4% changeups.

    While his changeup/curve are not elite, they are plenty serviceable to keep hitter honest. His slider this year was very successful. The problem Burnes had was his fastball success plummeted this year, not sure why.

    Burnes had a wFB last season of 6.7 (very good) to an awful -18.1. His other stats are all similar to last season. Conspiracy theory me here but I think the reason for the decline is largely due to the ball. His spin rate indicates he should be above average with all pitches but he did not see those results. He gave up an extremely high rate of homeruns on the high fastball. I think simply a change in pitching philosophy will see him bounce back next season.

    For the record, Burnes minor league rankings had his curveball and slider as equal pitchers. That's why the Brewers were so high on him to begin with, he could command 4 pitches.

  14. #179
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    Sorry if I wasn't clear on this point, but I think Burnes has #1 or #2 stuff and could eventually get there. That doesn't mean we need to put him as our #2 starter next year, just means I think he can eventually get there. I do believe we will go into next season with him having a rotation spot.

  15. #180
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    But your arguement was woodruff and burnes with some middle guys like Davies and Anderson and well find a 5th guy. I mean, that's basically what you're asking for if you bring in an innings eater as a 5th guy.

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