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  1. #316
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Like I said, I think that is what it will take. Not necessarily what I would be comfortable with what the Cubs would offer. Also, the options would be years 8 & 9. Scrubbing it down, I am saying it would probably cost 7/$200 to get Bryant to even listen. That would be 2 arbitration years totaling $40M then 5/$160 after that. The options are just in the event he is still performing at a high level after 7 years. Cubs can either get 2/$40, or if he is still performing at MVP levels get 2/$70M. Or he and/or the Cubs can agree to disagree at that point.

    I don't remember what you were suggesting. I thought it was more than 10/$250. I thought more like 10/$275. I get to that amount and even a higher AAV, but that is assuming he is still playing well. Otherwise it is 7/$200.

    Either way, I think we are both close on what it would cost to sign Bryant. But I think our opinion of that signing at this value is different. I feel you think it is a good deal for the Cubs. I don't. I think it is a strong deal for Bryant and iffy for the Cubs.
    As a Cubs fan Iíd be thrilled to lock up basically the rest of Bryantís career for $240 mil. I donít see why any Cubs fan would be opposed to that deal.

    That deal would be viewed as 9/240, since thatís the guarantee. I was suggesting 10 years in the range of 250-275. So money wise, itís pretty similar to what I was suggesting. I think itís reasonable. I doubt heís doing a mid range extension. I donít see him signing a deal in the next year that buys out 3-4 FA years. I think if you want to extend him itíll be a 8-10 year deal including 6-8 FA seasons.

  2. #317
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    As a Cubs fan Iíd be thrilled to lock up basically the rest of Bryantís career for $240 mil. I donít see why any Cubs fan would be opposed to that deal.

    That deal would be viewed as 9/240, since thatís the guarantee. I was suggesting 10 years in the range of 250-275. So money wise, itís pretty similar to what I was suggesting. I think itís reasonable. I doubt heís doing a mid range extension. I donít see him signing a deal in the next year that buys out 3-4 FA years. I think if you want to extend him itíll be a 8-10 year deal including 6-8 FA seasons.
    Well in my scenario that would mean the Cubs rejected the options of $35M a year the next 2 years, and Bryant took the option at $20M the next 2 years. That is how we get to 9/$240. And if that does happen, that means at the end of 7 years Bryant is not very good. Otherwise, if he was not worth the $35M the Cubs had to extend him with, he would be worth more than the $20M a year. So he would leave after 7 years.

    So you still would be thrilled with 9/$240 for Bryant, knowing the last 2 years he probably is not worth the $20M the Cubs are paying him, yearly? I am not so sure I would be thrilled by that.

    BTW, I understand that is what they have to do to extend Bryant. I get it. Just not sure I like it.

  3. #318
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    Free Agent and Ideas Thread: Spring Training and Early Season Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Well in my scenario that would mean the Cubs rejected the options of $35M a year the next 2 years, and Bryant took the option at $20M the next 2 years. That is how we get to 9/$240. And if that does happen, that means at the end of 7 years Bryant is not very good. Otherwise, if he was not worth the $35M the Cubs had to extend him with, he would be worth more than the $20M a year. So he would leave after 7 years.

    So you still would be thrilled with 9/$240 for Bryant, knowing the last 2 years he probably is not worth the $20M the Cubs are paying him, yearly? I am not so sure I would be thrilled by that.

    BTW, I understand that is what they have to do to extend Bryant. I get it. Just not sure I like it.
    Iím saying Iíd be thrilled if they signed Bryant for 9 years at a guarantee of $240 mil, which is what you proposed. The idea of option years at the end of a long term deal like that is unlikely, but in this scenario that you presented the Cubs are promising Bryant $240 mil for 9 years and they can choose to make it higher by picking up different options. Iíd expect that most Cubs fans would sign up for 9 more years of Kris Bryant at a 26.6 AAV. I certainly would. Itís about the same AAV Goldschmidt got for his 32-36 seasons but for ages 26-34 of Bryant. Sign me up.

    He would not need to be worth $20 mil in years 8-9 to make a 9/240 deal very successful. Teams donít need to have surplus value every year of a contract for it to be a good contract. They need to win the contract as a whole.
    Last edited by CP_414; Today at 05:06 PM.

  4. #319
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Iím saying Iíd be thrilled if they signed Bryant for 9 years at a guarantee of $240 mil, which is what you proposed. The idea of option years at the end of a long term deal like that is unlikely, but in this scenario that you presented the Cubs are promising Bryant $240 mil for 9 years and they can choose to make it higher by picking up different options. Iíd expect that most Cubs fans would sign up for 9 more years of Kris Bryant at a 26.6 AAV. I certainly would.

    He would not need to be worth $20 mil in years 8-9 to make a 9/240 deal very successful. Teams donít need to have surplus value every year of a contract for it to be a good contract. They need to win the contract as a whole.
    Why is it unlikely? Sox offered it to Machado. Maybe had they tiered it he might have been interested. Or had he been their player all his career he would have been fine with it. I think it is actually a good thing for Bryant to have 2 mutual options after 7 years. Hell, if he is still productive, or the average salary increases substantially the Cubs might pick up 8 and 9 for the $35M each. Or if that is too much but $20M is too little he can walk or renegotiate. I do not see options as unlikely, at all.

    That said, the 9/$240 is really 7/$200 if you consider he would most likely get $40M the next 2 years of arbitration. I agree with you that is a fair number. But it is a bit unnerving to pay that for a guy. And, if he is going to use Arenado as a comp, he wouldn't sign for that anyway. Arenado's post control years adds up to $234M for 7 years. Not sure Boras and Bryant would take that much less. Of course, if he was still producing after 7 years his next 2 would be for $70M. Making the total of $270M, or $230M for 7 years after control. Pretty much in line with Nolan.
    I understand thawv point that Arenado's was an overpay. I feel it was as well. But the fact is, I am sure it will be used.

  5. #320
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    Free Agent and Ideas Thread: Spring Training and Early Season Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Why is it unlikely? Sox offered it to Machado. Maybe had they tiered it he might have been interested. Or had he been their player all his career he would have been fine with it. I think it is actually a good thing for Bryant to have 2 mutual options after 7 years. Hell, if he is still productive, or the average salary increases substantially the Cubs might pick up 8 and 9 for the $35M each. Or if that is too much but $20M is too little he can walk or renegotiate. I do not see options as unlikely, at all.

    That said, the 9/$240 is really 7/$200 if you consider he would most likely get $40M the next 2 years of arbitration. I agree with you that is a fair number. But it is a bit unnerving to pay that for a guy. And, if he is going to use Arenado as a comp, he wouldn't sign for that anyway. Arenado's post control years adds up to $234M for 7 years. Not sure Boras and Bryant would take that much less. Of course, if he was still producing after 7 years his next 2 would be for $70M. Making the total of $270M, or $230M for 7 years after control. Pretty much in line with Nolan.
    I understand thawv point that Arenado's was an overpay. I feel it was as well. But the fact is, I am sure it will be used.
    And Machado is a Padre. Even though with the options exercised heíd have made considerably more money with the Sox than the Padres deal. When a player is signing a deal like that they should focus on guaranteed money, not money they can maybe earn if they are still elite in 8 years and the team chooses to pick it up. The expectation on those super long term deals is that the best performance comes in the beginning and the end is the worst performance. A player canít count on options being picked up nearly a decade from now. As the player or agent, you can look at that other level of options as a potential bonus, but you need to commit to the deal at the guaranteed dollar amount. Itís no different than a team offering an opt out. Maybe the player takes the opt out, but you better be ready to pay every dollar on the whole contract. Maybe the team picks up the option, but the player needs to be ok with and expect to only receive whatís guaranteed.
    Last edited by CP_414; Today at 05:34 PM.

  6. #321
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Sale got a $29 AAV not $25 mil.

    Arenado got $32.5, Trout got about $36, Machado got $30, Harper got $25+ (but 13 years). Goldschmidt got $26 AAV for his age 32-36 seasons as a 1b only player. $28 mil isnít a limit for KB. It just depends on how long term it is. The sooner you do it the lower the AAV can be because you can include more arbitration seasons.
    First of all, I honestly think my age is starting to get to me. I knew it was around 150, yet I typed it as it was 125.

    The difference is that KB is still under team control for 3 more years. Arenado was in last year. Trout had 2 years remaining, MM and Harper were FA's, Goldy was in last year.

    From the Cubs viewpoint, I was cap my extension offer at 28 million.

    This really isn't a big deal to go back and forth about. Ricketts is about seeing how much money he can make opposed to seeing how good of a team he can put on the field. And that's ok.

  7. #322
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    Free Agent and Ideas Thread: Spring Training and Early Season Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    First of all, I honestly think my age is starting to get to me. I knew it was around 150, yet I typed it as it was 125.

    The difference is that KB is still under team control for 3 more years. Arenado was in last year. Trout had 2 years remaining, MM and Harper were FA's, Goldy was in last year.

    From the Cubs viewpoint, I was cap my extension offer at 28 million.

    This really isn't a big deal to go back and forth about. Ricketts is about seeing how much money he can make opposed to seeing how good of a team he can put on the field. And that's ok.
    What if itís a 2 year extension? Still capped at $28 mil? How about 4 years? $28 mil? 12 years? The AAV depends on how long it is. The shorter the extension, the higher the AAV. The closer to free agency, the higher the AAV. So if you want a low AAV and you want KB here long term try to sign him to a long deal now.

  8. #323
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    And Machado is a Padre. Even though with the options exercised heíd have made considerably more money with the Sox than the Padres deal. When a player is signing a deal like that they should focus on guaranteed money, not money they can maybe earn if they are still elite in 8 years and the team chooses to pick it up. The expectation on those super long term deals is that the best performance comes in the beginning and the end is the worst performance. A player canít count on options being picked up nearly a decade from now. As the player or agent, you can look at that other level of options as a potential bonus, but you need to commit to the deal at the guaranteed dollar amount. Itís no different than a team offering an opt out. Maybe the player takes the opt out, but you better be ready to pay every dollar on the whole contract. Maybe the team picks up the option, but the player needs to be ok with and expect to only receive whatís guaranteed.
    But Machado's decision was made on two teams he never played for and 2 cities he never played his home games in. There was zero allegiance to either organization. Then, it also comes down to, if you have no allegiance to either organization, where would you rather play? If I had my choice and was not a Chicago guy, I pick SD over Chicago every time. On top of that, the sox options were based on plate appearances the last year or two of his 8 year deal. And it was all or nothing. The option they Cubs would be offering would actually have 4 options. Cubs take it at the high end, Kris takes it at the low end, the renegotiate to a different number, or he moves on. Not really a fair comparison.

  9. #324
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    Free Agent and Ideas Thread: Spring Training and Early Season Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    But Machado's decision was made on two teams he never played for and 2 cities he never played his home games in. There was zero allegiance to either organization. Then, it also comes down to, if you have no allegiance to either organization, where would you rather play? If I had my choice and was not a Chicago guy, I pick SD over Chicago every time. On top of that, the sox options were based on plate appearances the last year or two of his 8 year deal. And it was all or nothing. The option they Cubs would be offering would actually have 4 options. Cubs take it at the high end, Kris takes it at the low end, the renegotiate to a different number, or he moves on. Not really a fair comparison.
    Which mlb mega contracts (7-10+ years at huge money) include team options at the end? Iím sure thereís some, but I canít think of any. Lots of players have signed long term contracts. Lester for example has 6 years/$155 guaranteed. The Cubs could pick up an option to make it 7/$170. But itís a 6/155 deal. His AAV is 155/6. He might get that extra $15 million, but the expectation is that he wonít and that he agreed to the deal knowing it was guaranteed as 6/155.

    If you sign a long term contract, all that matters is what you are guaranteed. Bonuses are bonuses but you can only expect what you are assured. Itís not likely players like Bryant or Machado would take less guaranteed money because of a chance at a team option in a decade.


    And Chicago in the Summer > San Diego.
    Last edited by CP_414; Today at 06:15 PM.

  10. #325
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    2016 PSD Cubs IGT record: 16-3 #AuthenticatesWithmyIGTs

  11. #326
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    What if itís a 2 year extension? Still capped at $28 mil? How about 4 years? $28 mil? 12 years? The AAV depends on how long it is. The shorter the extension, the higher the AAV. The closer to free agency, the higher the AAV. So if you want a low AAV and you want KB here long term try to sign him to a long deal now.
    Agree with all of this.

    Yes...why not try to sign him now??

  12. #327
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    Javy heating up.

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