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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brewersfan255 View Post
    Brewers are after Jed Lowrie or Marwin Gonzalez now


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    Lowrie off the board.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    Lowrie off the board.
    Hoping for Marwin Gonzalez now


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  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brewersfan255 View Post
    Hoping for Marwin Gonzalez now


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    He's an excellent player for any roster. But I would be aiming a little higher if I'm going to give him the 2B spot full time. He's a definite upgrade, but I view him as more of a utility guy. He's only had one very good season in his career. But like I said, he's a big upgrade, and that may be all they're looking for.

  4. #19
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    Yeah, I'm not a big Marwin believer. Very useful player but likely to be an overpay if he gets what most sites are projecting him to.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    He's an excellent player for any roster. But I would be aiming a little higher if I'm going to give him the 2B spot full time. He's a definite upgrade, but I view him as more of a utility guy. He's only had one very good season in his career. But like I said, he's a big upgrade, and that may be all they're looking for.
    I think Marwin would be a great fit for the Brewers

    Arcia could improve, so Marwin could be the 2B. Or Keston could come up and be ready, and Arcia struggle, and Marwin can play short.

    Marwin is the same type of fit that Lowrie would have been.

    Marwin would be an excellent signing for Milwaukee and make them a lot better

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I think Marwin would be a great fit for the Brewers

    Arcia could improve, so Marwin could be the 2B. Or Keston could come up and be ready, and Arcia struggle, and Marwin can play short.

    Marwin is the same type of fit that Lowrie would have been.

    Marwin would be an excellent signing for Milwaukee and make them a lot better
    I would consider him a slightly above average player. With what they have now up the middle, it's a huge upgrade, without a doubt. I'm just not in love with him. For this situation, it would be a great signing.

    I don't really expect much from the Crew this year though. Pretty much everything went right for them last year. Guys had career years, which is hard to duplicate. SP doesn't appear to be good enough. If they get a boost with their SP, it's coming from the BP, so that will be a need now.

    Who knows? Maybe they can overachieve again this year with what they have. I just don't think it can happen. But hell, I'm usually wrong!!

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I would consider him a slightly above average player. With what they have now up the middle, it's a huge upgrade, without a doubt. I'm just not in love with him. For this situation, it would be a great signing.

    I don't really expect much from the Crew this year though. Pretty much everything went right for them last year. Guys had career years, which is hard to duplicate. SP doesn't appear to be good enough. If they get a boost with their SP, it's coming from the BP, so that will be a need now.

    Who knows? Maybe they can overachieve again this year with what they have. I just don't think it can happen. But hell, I'm usually wrong!!
    Agreed

    As of today (with rosters obviously incomplete)

    I have Cubs mid 90's, Cards low 90's, Brewers mid 80's

    Marwin Gonzalez, and then add maybe Martin Perez and Edwin Jackson for rotation depth in the minors, and you have probably an 88ish win Brewers team, whose bullpen and Yelich could carry to more wins possibly.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    The lowest projected ERA from a starter is Nelson's 4.20, and who knows when he'll be back. After that, it's Peralta at 4.40

    Peralta would be the 6th best starter on the Cubs, and the 8th best ERA among the Cards starters (not including guys like Gomber)

    Their rotation isn't fine, it's one of the projected worst in the league and got away with unsustainable numbers. Find me any starter in the last ten years who had consecutive seasons of sub 8 K/9 and over 80% LOB rate like Anderson had this year (projected for a 4.98 ERA)

    If they really are over their projected spending with this move, that leaves Arcia and Spangenberg as their middle infield (combined 0.2 fWAR last year)

    Stearns was unconventional last deadline, and he brought the Brewers a game within the World Series. But that rotation and middle infield are really weak right now.

    That said, Grandal is a nice upgrade over what they had in Pina and definitely extends their lineup a huge amount. Plus, not many bad one year deals, so it's likely a smart investment.
    Yeah, but they're also adding the best catcher in baseball at Framing, they'll see an improvement in pitching from just that.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban2.0 View Post
    Yeah, but they're also adding the best catcher in baseball at Framing, they'll see an improvement in pitching from just that.
    But he's replacing Pina and Kratz, who are both good at framing and have good defensive metrics.

  10. #25
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    I see no point in adding an Edwin Jackson type starter. The Brewers dont have top level starters but AAA depth guys aren't the answer either. They have plenty of depth options with chacin, Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Burnes, woodruff, Peralta and even Guerra. Depth isn't the issue, it's high level guys. Either get a high level guy or spend money elsewhere.

    Last year spangenburg had a 101 wRC+ against righties and Hernan Perez had a 104 wRC+ against lefties. As it sits, that's the likely platoon at 2B. While that's far from ideal, it's not unreasonable for that platoon to produce league average hitting at 2B, which would be a major upgrade over the near league low performance they got last year. Arcia was especially awful as well last year. Even if he's never an above average batter, he has some positive regression that could easily kick him up fairly significantly.

    The brewers have alot of things to worry about for negative regression no doubt. But there's room for improvement at 2B, SS and C from both roster improvement and positive regression. It may or may not offset some potential decline from Cain, yelich and/or Aguilar. Ryan Braun, even though he's aging, has room from some improvement as he had an absurdly low babip for him last year.

    And the pitching staff has the most regression danger. Peralta, Anderson and Chacin all have regression risk. Miley likely isn't back and likely isn't repesting those numbers if he is back. But the flipside with Anderson is that while his strand rate should decrease, his home run rate should also decrease. And the other side is that we're also replacing nearly 60 starts by guys like Davies, Guerra and suter with Nelson, Burnes and Woodruff. And nelson is admittedly a complete wild card.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I see no point in adding an Edwin Jackson type starter. The Brewers dont have top level starters but AAA depth guys aren't the answer either. They have plenty of depth options with chacin, Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Burnes, woodruff, Peralta and even Guerra. Depth isn't the issue, it's high level guys. Either get a high level guy or spend money elsewhere.

    Last year spangenburg had a 101 wRC+ against righties and Hernan Perez had a 104 wRC+ against lefties. As it sits, that's the likely platoon at 2B. While that's far from ideal, it's not unreasonable for that platoon to produce league average hitting at 2B, which would be a major upgrade over the near league low performance they got last year. Arcia was especially awful as well last year. Even if he's never an above average batter, he has some positive regression that could easily kick him up fairly significantly.

    The brewers have alot of things to worry about for negative regression no doubt. But there's room for improvement at 2B, SS and C from both roster improvement and positive regression. It may or may not offset some potential decline from Cain, yelich and/or Aguilar. Ryan Braun, even though he's aging, has room from some improvement as he had an absurdly low babip for him last year.

    And the pitching staff has the most regression danger. Peralta, Anderson and Chacin all have regression risk. Miley likely isn't back and likely isn't repesting those numbers if he is back. But the flipside with Anderson is that while his strand rate should decrease, his home run rate should also decrease. And the other side is that we're also replacing nearly 60 starts by guys like Davies, Guerra and suter with Nelson, Burnes and Woodruff. And nelson is admittedly a complete wild card.
    I agree with everything you said here.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I see no point in adding an Edwin Jackson type starter. The Brewers dont have top level starters but AAA depth guys aren't the answer either. They have plenty of depth options with chacin, Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Burnes, woodruff, Peralta and even Guerra. Depth isn't the issue, it's high level guys. Either get a high level guy or spend money elsewhere.

    Last year spangenburg had a 101 wRC+ against righties and Hernan Perez had a 104 wRC+ against lefties. As it sits, that's the likely platoon at 2B. While that's far from ideal, it's not unreasonable for that platoon to produce league average hitting at 2B, which would be a major upgrade over the near league low performance they got last year. Arcia was especially awful as well last year. Even if he's never an above average batter, he has some positive regression that could easily kick him up fairly significantly.

    The brewers have alot of things to worry about for negative regression no doubt. But there's room for improvement at 2B, SS and C from both roster improvement and positive regression. It may or may not offset some potential decline from Cain, yelich and/or Aguilar. Ryan Braun, even though he's aging, has room from some improvement as he had an absurdly low babip for him last year.

    And the pitching staff has the most regression danger. Peralta, Anderson and Chacin all have regression risk. Miley likely isn't back and likely isn't repesting those numbers if he is back. But the flipside with Anderson is that while his strand rate should decrease, his home run rate should also decrease. And the other side is that we're also replacing nearly 60 starts by guys like Davies, Guerra and suter with Nelson, Burnes and Woodruff. And nelson is admittedly a complete wild card.
    I donít see how Chase is a regression risk. He had by far his worst year last year.


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  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brewersfan255 View Post
    I donít see how Chase is a regression risk. He had by far his worst year last year.


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    Chase Anderson?

    He is probably the biggest regression case of all the Brewers players

    Over the last 20 years, there have been 39 seasons where a player who threw at least 140 innings, had a sub 8.00 K/9 and a Left on Base rate over 80%. Only three pitchers have done it more than once. John Lackey in 2008 and 2015, Zach Greinke in 2004 and 2013, and Jeremy Hellickson in 2011 and 2012.

    Lackey, for his career has a 7.27 K/9 and a LOB rate of 73.2%. Thus, why he only has a .02 separator from his ERA to his FIP. He had two outlier seasons, for the most part a fairly consistent pitcher.

    For two years though, he had remarkable luck getting out of jams that was better than who he was as a pitcher. The rest of his career shows that.

    Greinke for his career, holds a 3.39 ERA and a 3.39 FIP. Also, a player with two outlier years, one being his rookie year.

    And Hellickson is our only example of someone having back to back seasons like that, which he followed up with a 2013 that went the other direction.


    If Anderson isn't going to improve his FIP based numbers (K, BB, or HR) then expect to see a massive regression from him. History tells us that what he did is not sustainable at all.

    The only guys that get away with high LOB rates are high strike out guys, and even then, it's still a massive challenge. And the most susceptible to poor LOB rate guys are guys that give up a lot of home runs (clearing the bases).

    Let me give you an example of a Chase Anderson good luck game

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...01804260.shtml

    Even though he got the loss (he isn't responsible for the Brewers not scoring runs)

    Anderson manages to get 21 outs, allows 7 base runners, and only allows 1 run. That run came on a solo home run by Schwarber in the 6th.

    Yet, Anderson only got 3 of those outs himself (a pick off and 2 strike outs).

    18 outs were made by his defenders, and most of them were made with runners on base.

    Too many contact outs, with men on base. When you allow the hitter to make contact and you have men on base, you are susceptible to that runner advancing bases or scoring a run. While weak contact is absolutely a part of this game, it's not a sustainable enough part of the game if you don't have other aspects of it working for you. And it's not like Anderson is especially strong in the weak contact department (20% soft contact rate is about league average)


    For Anderson to post a sub 4 ERA again, he's going to need to improve his Fielding Independent Pitching numbers

    If he repeats his K/BB/HR with his IP, he should expect an ERA in the low 5's. What he had last year is not sustainable.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 01-14-2019 at 02:25 PM.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    But he's replacing Pina and Kratz, who are both good at framing and have good defensive metrics.
    But he's still significantly better.
    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.co...hp?cid=1899493 particularly compared to Pina.
    He was worth 10 runs more than Pina and 6 runs more than Kratz.

  15. #30
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