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  1. #31
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    Nov 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Chase Anderson?

    He is probably the biggest regression case of all the Brewers players

    Over the last 20 years, there have been 39 seasons where a player who threw at least 140 innings, had a sub 8.00 K/9 and a Left on Base rate over 80%. Only three pitchers have done it more than once. John Lackey in 2008 and 2015, Zach Greinke in 2004 and 2013, and Jeremy Hellickson in 2011 and 2012.

    Lackey, for his career has a 7.27 K/9 and a LOB rate of 73.2%. Thus, why he only has a .02 separator from his ERA to his FIP. He had two outlier seasons, for the most part a fairly consistent pitcher.

    For two years though, he had remarkable luck getting out of jams that was better than who he was as a pitcher. The rest of his career shows that.

    Greinke for his career, holds a 3.39 ERA and a 3.39 FIP. Also, a player with two outlier years, one being his rookie year.

    And Hellickson is our only example of someone having back to back seasons like that, which he followed up with a 2013 that went the other direction.


    If Anderson isn't going to improve his FIP based numbers (K, BB, or HR) then expect to see a massive regression from him. History tells us that what he did is not sustainable at all.

    The only guys that get away with high LOB rates are high strike out guys, and even then, it's still a massive challenge. And the most susceptible to poor LOB rate guys are guys that give up a lot of home runs (clearing the bases).

    Let me give you an example of a Chase Anderson good luck game

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...01804260.shtml

    Even though he got the loss (he isn't responsible for the Brewers not scoring runs)

    Anderson manages to get 21 outs, allows 7 base runners, and only allows 1 run. That run came on a solo home run by Schwarber in the 6th.

    Yet, Anderson only got 3 of those outs himself (a pick off and 2 strike outs).

    18 outs were made by his defenders, and most of them were made with runners on base.

    Too many contact outs, with men on base. When you allow the hitter to make contact and you have men on base, you are susceptible to that runner advancing bases or scoring a run. While weak contact is absolutely a part of this game, it's not a sustainable enough part of the game if you don't have other aspects of it working for you. And it's not like Anderson is especially strong in the weak contact department (20% soft contact rate is about league average)


    For Anderson to post a sub 4 ERA again, he's going to need to improve his Fielding Independent Pitching numbers

    If he repeats his K/BB/HR with his IP, he should expect an ERA in the low 5's. What he had last year is not sustainable.
    To be fair, he had a career high hr/9 and hr/fb, so theoretically, he could see fip improvement in that. He also regressed a little in his walk and k numbers from the prior year so it wouldn't be surprising to see fip improvement from him though too.

  2. #32
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    May 2007
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    39,377
    Grandal's quotes on the matter don't make him look especially intelligent.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  3. #33
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
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    34
    Another thing to keep in mind with Grandal doing this one year deal, he's still relatively young, this is his age 30 season coming up, and next year he can't have a QO made, so he'll be completely unrestricted.

    While he had another good year, it's not like he was coming off a bounce back or a career year, there's no reason to assume that his value will plummet, plus he can take out an insurance policy just in case.

  4. #34
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    Nov 2010
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    14,888
    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban2.0 View Post
    Another thing to keep in mind with Grandal doing this one year deal, he's still relatively young, this is his age 30 season coming up, and next year he can't have a QO made, so he'll be completely unrestricted.

    While he had another good year, it's not like he was coming off a bounce back or a career year, there's no reason to assume that his value will plummet, plus he can take out an insurance policy just in case.
    30 for a catcher is not relatively young though. To cash in on a four year, $60 million deal at age 30 would've been the smart thing to do.

  5. #35
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    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThomasTomasz View Post
    30 for a catcher is not relatively young though. To cash in on a four year, $60 million deal at age 30 would've been the smart thing to do.
    Exactly. Banking on making more money next offseason was unwise of him. It may actually work in the long run but it is far from a safe bet. Not to mention that this was a career year for Grandal by some measurements. He compiled his highest fWAR, wRC+, and games played in a season (yes, he had a higher wRC+ in his rookie year but that was over a mere 60 games).

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  7. #37
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    Jun 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    Exactly. Banking on making more money next offseason was unwise of him. It may actually work in the long run but it is far from a safe bet. Not to mention that this was a career year for Grandal by some measurements. He compiled his highest fWAR, wRC+, and games played in a season (yes, he had a higher wRC+ in his rookie year but that was over a mere 60 games).
    I think his power numbers will overall improve moving from LA to MKE

    Look what Yelich did moving out of MIA


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  8. #38
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    May 2007
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    His power numbers could certainly get a boost playing half his games in Milwaukee and I took that in to account with my last statement.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  9. #39
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    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    To be fair, he had a career high hr/9 and hr/fb, so theoretically, he could see fip improvement in that. He also regressed a little in his walk and k numbers from the prior year so it wouldn't be surprising to see fip improvement from him though too.
    If he sees a FIP improvement, then absolutely he could improve, but he could improve to a 4.50 FIP, and still have a significantly higher ERA in 2019 than in 2018.

    It seems like we agree.

  10. #40
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    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    Exactly. Banking on making more money next offseason was unwise of him. It may actually work in the long run but it is far from a safe bet. Not to mention that this was a career year for Grandal by some measurements. He compiled his highest fWAR, wRC+, and games played in a season (yes, he had a higher wRC+ in his rookie year but that was over a mere 60 games).
    He was QO attached this year though, right?

    So in order to match his 4/$60M, he just needs to walk away from the mutual option and sign a 3/$41.75M ($13.92M AAV). I figure 3/$42M will be in reach as long as he's healthy, since he won't also have a QO attached to him.

  11. #41
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    Mar 2013
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    Maybe he just didn't want to waste several seasons of his career in Queens on a sub. 500 team

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  12. #42
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    May 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    He was QO attached this year though, right?

    So in order to match his 4/$60M, he just needs to walk away from the mutual option and sign a 3/$41.75M ($13.92M AAV). I figure 3/$42M will be in reach as long as he's healthy, since he won't also have a QO attached to him.
    Math sounds right but I still don't think it's a wise move on his behalf. Between being a full time catcher and the way long term contracts for players in their thirties are becoming more and more scarce, I don't like the bet he took on himself here.

    Having said that, him and his family will be just fine either way about it.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

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