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  1. #1
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    Kyler Murray - Football or Baseball

    Looking more and more like A's first round pick Kyler Murray will give back his bonus and declare for the NFL draft. Playing baseball seems to be an obvious decision unless you are a top QB prospect in which case you will make much more guaranteed money at a much younger age than moving through the minor league system and then years of team control in MLB before finally hitting arbitration. Interesting choice for the Heisman Trophy winner

  2. #2
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    if i were King of Everything, all premier athletes would choose baseball.


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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    if i were King of Everything, all premier athletes would choose baseball.


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    Why’s that?

  4. #4
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    Baseball easily.

  5. #5
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    I'm sure like all athletes, he's confident in his abilities, but realistically, he has to look at which one he can be better at.

    Moneywise, he's guaranteed $5 mill for baseball but will essentially make peanuts beyond that for quite awhile. I don't know a ton about him as a baseball prospect admittedly. But I know he's never focused entirely on baseball and his athleticism is one of the keys. Maybe he's more advanced than I'm giving him credit for. But toolsy athletes who are first focusing on the full sport now usually take a little extra seasoning. Hell turn 22 next season. It's not unreasonable to think he may not be in the majors until age 25. Which means he doesn't hit arb until 28 and doesn't really start malign real money until 29 or 30.

    In the NFL, if he's a first round pick, he makes quite a bit more early. As the 32nd pick, Lamar Jackson's contract is worth $9.5 mill. It's not all guaranteed, but most qbs will play out their rookie deal at least. If he's a mid first it's more like $12-15 and the top of the draft can be $25-30 mill. And most high upside qbs will get a contract after that even if they arent great. So even if Murray is an average NFL qb, there's a good chance he'll have made $30 mill or more by the time he's signing his first real money deal in baseball.

    And there's other things to consider. Lifestyle in the NFL is likely bettwr earlier than toiling around minor league stadiums for 3-4 years. But baseball has a major advantage in long term health and has a higher potential in field earnings.

    For me, football would be my choice though, even with the health risk. It's a higher money floor and better early lifestyle which would have been tough for 21 year old me to pass up.
    Last edited by crewfan13; 12-14-2018 at 10:57 AM.

  6. #6
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    Can't he do both? … enter NFL draft if he is guaranteed a 1st round pick … get guaranteed contract.

    then sign a contract with A's for a lesser guaranteed amount up front with structures that he gets more if he quits football in the first 2 or 3 years

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I'm sure like all athletes, he's confident in his abilities, but realistically, he has to look at which one he can be better at.

    Moneywise, he's guaranteed $5 mill for baseball but will essentially make peanuts beyond that for quite awhile. I don't know a ton about him as a baseball prospect admittedly. But I know he's never focused entirely on baseball and his athleticism is one of the keys. Maybe he's more advanced than I'm giving him credit for. But toolsy athletes who are first focusing on the full sport now usually take a little extra seasoning. Hell turn 22 next season. It's not unreasonable to think he may not be in the majors until age 25. Which means he doesn't hit arb until 28 and doesn't really start malign real money until 29 or 30.

    In the NFL, if he's a first round pick, he makes quite a bit more early. As the 32nd pick, Lamar Jackson's contract is worth $9.5 mill. It's not all guaranteed, but most qbs will play out their rookie deal at least. If he's a mid first it's more like $12-15 and the top of the draft can be $25-30 mill. And most high upside qbs will get a contract after that even if they arent great. So even if Murray is an average NFL qb, there's a good chance he'll have made $30 mill or more by the time he's signing his first real money deal in baseball.

    And there's other things to consider. Lifestyle in the NFL is likely bettwr earlier than toiling around minor league stadiums for 3-4 years. But baseball has a major advantage in long term health and has a higher potential in field earnings.

    For me, football would be my choice though, even with the health risk. It's a higher money floor and better early lifestyle which would have been tough for 21 year old me to pass up.
    You make excellent points across the board but where I caution people on longevity is the QB position. More and more we are seeing QBs play into their late 30s to early 40s in Brady's case. If you can stay healthy (which most QBs actually do) and have talent you can play easily 15 seasons and likely make more than all but the highes echelon of MLB players. I have heard many say that NFL is actually easier on family life. They only have about 10 road trips per year for 48 hours a pop vs. being gone a total of 4 months per year as a MLB player.

  8. #8
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    Baseball. Even if the kid is guaranteed more money being a late first round pick in the NFL, he also risks his health which there should be no price on. Not to mention if he's an elite major league baseball player, he'll make a **** ton more guaranteed cash playing baseball than playing football.

    The only other alternative is giving football a chance first and going back to baseball if that fails but if I'm him, its not a choice.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Baseball. Even if the kid is guaranteed more money being a late first round pick in the NFL, he also risks his health which there should be no price on. Not to mention if he's an elite major league baseball player, he'll make a **** ton more guaranteed cash playing baseball than playing football.

    The only other alternative is giving football a chance first and going back to baseball if that fails but if I'm him, its not a choice.
    But there's also a somewhat decent chance he never makes the bigs or if he does, that he's a utility 4th OF. So the floor for him in baseball is basically his $5 mill signing bonus.

    If he's a mid to late first, his true nfl guarantee is $6-8 mill. But realistically, hes very likely to play out his rookie deal, which puts that money more like $10-15 mill for his first contract. After that, even if he's mediocre, he gets another decent sized reclamation project deal and it's very likely that his career football earnings could be $20 mill plus as a realistic floor. And that would all or mostly be earned prior to his 30th birthday. He could legit not sign a true open market deal in baseball ubtil his 30th birthday.

    Baseball has the long term health advantage no doubt. Baseball also has a better career earnings ceiling (in regards to on field earnings). But football has the earnings floor advantage, a recognition advantage and and immediate earnings advantage.

    For a fan of baseball it's probably an easy call but for a 21 yr old kid, it's probably not easy.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    But there's also a somewhat decent chance he never makes the bigs or if he does, that he's a utility 4th OF. So the floor for him in baseball is basically his $5 mill signing bonus.

    If he's a mid to late first, his true nfl guarantee is $6-8 mill. But realistically, hes very likely to play out his rookie deal, which puts that money more like $10-15 mill for his first contract. After that, even if he's mediocre, he gets another decent sized reclamation project deal and it's very likely that his career football earnings could be $20 mill plus as a realistic floor. And that would all or mostly be earned prior to his 30th birthday. He could legit not sign a true open market deal in baseball ubtil his 30th birthday.

    Baseball has the long term health advantage no doubt. Baseball also has a better career earnings ceiling (in regards to on field earnings). But football has the earnings floor advantage, a recognition advantage and and immediate earnings advantage.

    For a fan of baseball it's probably an easy call but for a 21 yr old kid, it's probably not easy.
    That's true but this is assuming he's a late 1st round pick. That's not a guarantee, just where he is projected to go. If he drops, he'll have to take less money to play a sport where his long term health is put at risk.

    Not to mention if he drops to the second round, the likelihood of him playing out his deal drops significantly. This is also a QB heavy draft. There are a lot of variables here.

    The one benefit he has is that baseball can wait so I wouldn't be surprised to see him enter the draft and play his cards from there.

  11. #11
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    Even as an early 2nd he most likely plays out his rookie deal. Qbs are given every chance to succeed or fail. The only ones who dont are the ones who are distractions or bad teammates like Tebow and maziel. I have no reason to believe Murray had any of those question marks. So if he's committed to football, he'll get adequate chances.

    I know one was a first and not second, but even guys like geno Smith and ej manuel played out their deals and they were essentially benched by their last 2 seasons. And they both got contracts beyond that.

    To me, if Murray truly has a round 1 grade in the NFL draft, his earnings floor is significantly higher in the NFL. Mainly that's the due to the bust rate of mlb draft guys, but football is a safer money bet. And it's a much quicker money bet.

  12. #12
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    If he is a top half of the first round type guy there is almost no reason to think he will or should play baseball. Keep in mind that most football players with CTE played positions with repetitive hitting both in games and practice. The NFL QB is simply not that person and as such incur very little long term health effects relative to other football. If the goal is to make money then contrary to what some have said he should go NFL IF he is a high first round pick.

  13. #13
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    A 5’-9” first round QB? That’s a stretch but these Big 12 QBs are the new big thing.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by thefeckcampaign View Post
    Why’s that?
    bc baseball is the only sport i follow.


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  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    bc baseball is the only sport i follow.


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    There is no arguing that position. If Kyler goes baseball he will be in the minors a minimum of this upcoming year and 2020 with perhaps a 2020 call-up. The A's will then manipulate his call-up in 2021 to delay the start of service time until 2022 at the earliest. This means he likely doesnt hit arbitration until around 2025 at which point if he is a star he may score around 10 million to 12 million per year as an outfielder in Arb. 2025 he will be 27 years old. If Klyer is a top half of first round pick his signing bonus will be in the 15 million range at age 21/22 with the opportunity for a big 70 to 100 million plus payday at age 26. If Kyler is the next Mookie Betts or Mike Trout then he will make more money in baseball. If not he truly will make more money being a clipboard guy for 15 years in the NFL. Not as cut and dry as all of us big baseball fans like to think. It would be if he were not a QB. The QB position is the great equalizer when it comes to NFL vs. Baseball salary economics.

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