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  1. #121
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    6,956
    There is plenty of value in trading back. Sure you may pass on a good player, but you still have 2 first rounders, and now open the chance to fill a spot for depth purposes with a high potential guy. They would only be moving back a few spots and the value of player isn't going to drop that much a few picks down. In this draft you have at least 6 feasible edge guys, and a few guys who will slip to the second who in other drafts may have been first round guys. The class is deep in my view. I think you might see value all the way into the 3rd. Obviously, don't wait that long to take an edge, but the Packers have a great chance to greatly improve many areas of this team by moving back. I don't think you can make a great argument saying there is a major gap between the 3-9 ranked crop at edge IE Ferrell, Burns, Polite, Sweat, Ximines, Gary, and Ferguson. Bosa and Allen will be gone in the first that's 7 guys who should be off the board in the first, but one or two could slip to early 2. A guy like Carl Granderson I think would be a second in most drafts could fall to the early 3rd. Very deep class, may not be a lot of superstars, but I see a lot of quality starters. Moving back doesn't hurt this team, and maybe increases their chance of netting two of these cats as last season we saw them double down and hit a home run with Alexander and Jackson.

  2. #122
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    10,381
    Quote Originally Posted by IRNMN View Post
    There is plenty of value in trading back. Sure you may pass on a good player, but you still have 2 first rounders, and now open the chance to fill a spot for depth purposes with a high potential guy. They would only be moving back a few spots and the value of player isn't going to drop that much a few picks down. In this draft you have at least 6 feasible edge guys, and a few guys who will slip to the second who in other drafts may have been first round guys. The class is deep in my view. I think you might see value all the way into the 3rd. Obviously, don't wait that long to take an edge, but the Packers have a great chance to greatly improve many areas of this team by moving back. I don't think you can make a great argument saying there is a major gap between the 3-9 ranked crop at edge IE Ferrell, Burns, Polite, Sweat, Ximines, Gary, and Ferguson. Bosa and Allen will be gone in the first that's 7 guys who should be off the board in the first, but one or two could slip to early 2. A guy like Carl Granderson I think would be a second in most drafts could fall to the early 3rd. Very deep class, may not be a lot of superstars, but I see a lot of quality starters. Moving back doesn't hurt this team, and maybe increases their chance of netting two of these cats as last season we saw them double down and hit a home run with Alexander and Jackson.
    I'd hardly call Jackson a home run. Actually, I'd give last years draft probably a solid B even though it's early.

    You did hit on a different point and it's all about value and tiers. I've read some stuff and can surmise something similar to what irnmn is saying. But if we just take a step back a little further, the key to drafting is understanding tiers. I don't put in enough work or have the knowledge to truly do that. But that's what you have to trust the packers to do. And last years first I think demonstrated that. We saw a glut of talent that could help the team available when we picked. Knowing someone was bound to fall, we traded back. Then presumably when that tier of players started drying up, we moved back up to get our guy. That's smart drafting.

    That being said, the trade down isn't always the only or right move. If we truly have the group of edge rushers like polite, ferrell, Burns, sweat ect all graded fairly close, then a move down isnt a bad plan. And I think it's possible thats the case. But if we have one of them (or a different guy at a different spot of need) rated as a tier above the rest, I'm fine staying put or even moving up a few spots to get that guy. Now, I always think making a huge move up for anyone other than a qb is a bad idea. But moving up 3 spots or so to make sure we get our guy if we truly have someone above the rest is fine.

    Like you said too, understanding depth is key too. I think most folks sort of naturally fall into the trap that every year pick say 38 is of similar value. But that's not always the case. Sometimes drafts are so deep that pick 38 has a first round grade because it's a deep draft and sometimes pick 38 has a mid to late 2nd round grade because it's a weak draft. Just because there's 32 first round picks doesn't mean 32 guys need a first round grade. And teams that understand that do well in drafts. Some drafts the guys available at 14 are similar in grade to guys taken at 29 and sometimes there's fairly substantial drop offs at those points. If we're trading down, we just need to be sure we don't move down to behind the drop-off.

  3. #123
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    878
    I wouldnt mind if Gute pulled the same type of move he did with the Saints. See if anyone wants to move a 1st rounder for pick 12, then lets trade up from their pick the same exact way. OR, see if anyone offers a 2020 2nd and a 2019 3rd for pick 30. Then we trade that 2019 3rd to move up 8-10 spots from our pick 44. So basically getting a free 2020 2nd.

    Or, as I said it a few pages back, the Chiefs Texans and Patriots all have two 2nd rounders. Perhaps all 3 of those AFC teams are candiates to trade up. The Texans and Chiefs are probably going for it with QBs on rookie deals. I can see them move one of their 2nds. Id trade back to 23 with Houston for pick 55.

    So many other possibilities but im def for it. This team needs a BIG draft day. Would be sweet to get a top 100 edge, S, RG, RT, WR, TE. All after free agency where theyll add something.

  4. #124
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    6,956
    The thing of it is we say there are a handful of needs, but I am wondeing what those needs will look like after free agency there is a really nice group in terms of edge and safety this year and that even if some guys get tagged. If they knock out those needs its entirely possible our draft looks like this: (Not actually suggesting this just an example)

    1 (12). Cody Ford
    Ford actually makes a ton of sense because you could use him either as a guard or a tackle. If you're taking him at 12 better be sure he's going to start somewhere this season and well.
    1 (30). Noah Fant
    Very top heavy TE class, but you want one of the top 5-6 guys or you're looking at a project player.
    2. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
    May not be the best athlete or the fastest, but he's a big receiver who can catch. Not going to be a slot guy, but should quickly gain Rodgers trust.

    WR will be interesting because I would grade most guys out as a current 2-3 with a low 1 potential. This is one of those draft you can get a solid WR there is not a must have WR prospect, but you have a handful of solid talents especially in the rounds 2-3 area.

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