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  1. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay87shot View Post
    I agree, I like Moose but not at the loss of Shaw playing 2B most of the year. Shaw was a gold glove caliber 3B last year (had he not played 40 some games at 2B I think he would've won). With all the 2b options paying Moose $10 a year for 3ish years doesn't fit at all. I think most of the noise is reporters pondering, I can't see us working Shaw and Moose for multiple years especially with Jesus at 1st.
    Agreed, except with regards to Shaw winning the GG. They're never going to give him that. Arenado has that award on lock-down.

  2. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    Still hearing rumblings of a Brewers/Moose reunion. Can anyone explain this to me? Nothing against Moose but I don't really see how he fits into this roster.
    It would have to be a very cheap 1 yr deal for me to be okay with it. I think they really liked him as a clubhouse guy and he's been praised by teammates on the royals in the past too. Clubhouse stuff is important, but not $10 mill a year important.

  3. #108
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    The more I think about it the more I regret not getting Profar. I don't think we really tried but he didn't cost any big time prospects, can start at 2B and transition to super utility when Huira is ready. He doesn't strikeout a ton and could hit 2 if he progresses a little more. Oh well to late on that one.

  4. #109
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    I don't mind at all what the Brewers have done. I think our interest in another middle infielder was overrated. If we really thought we needed one we would have just brought Schoop back. Huira is likely in the early-mid season plans. Assuming nothing goes wrong at AAA he'll be called up when his super 2 deadline passes.

    Only think I might have changed would be adding another of the top end relievers. Several went for cheap enough that I'd have tried to get one.

  5. #110
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    The real challenge is that none of us actually know the budget. We could be really tight and the onyl cash we have is if we'd ship out thames or Anderson.

    We also dont know how Nelson has looked at any point. He could have looked good to end last year and had no discomfort all winter or he could still be a wild card. But he could be a difference maker.

    But starting rotation is still the big question mark for me. I know I'm more of an anomoly on that in this forum, but our actual performance vs expected performance last year was a wide gap. Our ERA for the starting rotation was something like 11th in baseball last year, but our DRAx which is deserved run average, was more like 24th.

    If we perform to that DRA mark we're in trouble. A healthy Nelson could help. We have young guys like burnes, woodruff and Peralta that can step up. So we have upside. But we're also banking on some risky guys as well. And there's the risk of regression from chacin, Anderson and that group as well.

  6. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    The real challenge is that none of us actually know the budget. We could be really tight and the onyl cash we have is if we'd ship out thames or Anderson.

    We also dont know how Nelson has looked at any point. He could have looked good to end last year and had no discomfort all winter or he could still be a wild card. But he could be a difference maker.

    But starting rotation is still the big question mark for me. I know I'm more of an anomoly on that in this forum, but our actual performance vs expected performance last year was a wide gap. Our ERA for the starting rotation was something like 11th in baseball last year, but our DRAx which is deserved run average, was more like 24th.

    If we perform to that DRA mark we're in trouble. A healthy Nelson could help. We have young guys like burnes, woodruff and Peralta that can step up. So we have upside. But we're also banking on some risky guys as well. And there's the risk of regression from chacin, Anderson and that group as well.
    I think the rotation will be decent. Still a question mark I agree. But I am probably as big of a fan as Woodruff has. Not as high on Peralta. Nelson is a huge x-factor this year.

    Offensively, the Grandal move was a great and necessary move imo. The Brewers couldn't go into the season with 3 potential holes in the lineup at SS, 2B and C. Pina stunk at the plate last year. Arcia too for much of the year. HP and Spangenberg aren't the answer but can maybe hold things down until Huira is called up. I wouldn't mind a cheap signing of Harrison yet.

  7. #112
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    Personally I'm much more worried about the bats than I am the pitching. Our team has been pretty consistent with pitching performance the last two years, and the way we use our bullpen it seems like we can through just about anyone into the starting rotation and achieve moderate success. I don't expect much from Nelson and I'd expect Chacin to get worse, but I'd expect Anderson to improve and I think both Woodruff and Burnes have better stuff than anyone in our rotation last year so the upside is there.

    The bats on the other hands....not as much. I'd expect Braun to actually have a bit better numbers, though if he's really changing his approach who knows. Yelich I'd expect a small regressions (just because what he did last year just isn't sustainable). Cain should be steady. Shaw I'm hoping improves. Arcia should improve. Obviously we're better at catcher. So basically that leaves 1B and 2B where I have major question marks as well as the overall consistency of our lineup. Can't be so reliant on the HR to win.

  8. #113
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    I worry a bit more about offense as well, especially since it feels like we gave up a lot of depth. If an outfielder gets injured Gamel can be ok but doesn't have much upside and our backup infielders are nothing special until a couple prospect are ready. The pitching is so deep that if Nelson or the young guys struggle we still have plenty of guys who can be respectable and the pen is deep enough that you can pull a starter early and let just about everyone go multiple innings.

    I look at the roster and think which players will progress or regress.
    Catcher- Progress, Offensively Grandal's numbers should greatly benefit from a park change, hopefully he learns how to block a ball in the dirt.
    1B- I would hope he stays about the same but I am going to say slight regression maybe .250-.270 similar power numbers but in more games/PA's.
    2B- Progress, everything I read says the Spang/Perez platoon should be average at the plate, if so that would be great. However I am quite skeptical. I agree on getting Harrison, Solarte, Dietrich, Forsythe, or another cheap vet to add to the competition.
    SS- Progress hopefully a lot, Arcia has to be better at the plate than the 1st half of last year, it would be huge if he could hit around .270-.280 like his rookie year.
    3B- Same, I think Shaw should be a solid .250/.340/.500 batter with solid D. I can't see him playing better than 2017 or falling apart any time soon.
    LF- Progress, hopefully Braun can do better than .250/.310 and 64 rbi's, injuries are more the worry than him digressing.
    CF-Cain, same hopefully, for me it's about his obp., he was over 30 points higher than any other year. I think we should get around a .300 hitter and the great defense but can he be as patient as last year.
    RF- ???, I would guess slight digression just based on his unbelievable last month or so was but he 1st 120-ish games could lead to him to improve early. Also he was at one point a gold glove LF and he was just average in right so maybe the is some defensive improvement to be had.
    Bench- Digress, the beginning of the bench is fine Pina, Thames, Gamel but I worry about the depth especially with Hernan in a platoon not being fully available to plug in here or there.

    Rotation-Improve, I fully expect 2 have a couple top of the rotation starters this year and not a rotation full of 3/4 type starters like last year. Between Nelson, the 3 young guys, and a Anderson revival we have 5 guys who have/could be better than any of the full time guys last year (not counting Miley's great half year). If 2 of the 5 can live up to expectations we should be able to find 3 other respectable starters especially with Chacin and Davies still around.

    Relief- Same, I think Knebel will be better and Jeffress will decline some making that a wash and the rest of the pen should be deep and pretty stable with some guys who have the potential to make a great pen better (i.e Wahl, Albers, Williams, Barnes).

    That analysis says we can be a lot better but it doesn't account for injuries so that is my worry, knock on wood.

  9. #114
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    I think youre also talking best case scenario in alot of those spots. Catcher should be better barring injury. 2nd and SS could improve, but I'm not banking on anything drastic unless hiura comes up. Braun could improve on luck, but I'd guess regression from Cain, yeli and possibly aggy offset much of that. I still think our offense is a little better than last year due to grandal, but I'm not sure we'll see anything drastic unless it comes from Hiura or a Kemp like resurgence from braun.

    I also think we're under rating how well our starting pitching was last year. They finished 11th in era, but 18th in FIP and 22nd in xFIP. Unless burnes or Nelson legit pitch at a near ace level, I just find it hard to see our pitching staff performing at a higher level. I agree our starting pitching talent is better than last year, but last year's staff overperformed. Unless this year's staff can also over perform, which isn't common, I don't know that we'll perform better than last year.

    Our pitching staff as a whole ended up being the 6th best era team in baseball. I think that's closer to our ceiling than our floor to be honest. I find it hard to see a path right now that we exceded that mark unless we get a few breakouts again or acquire someone.

  10. #115
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    For example, last year Miley, Peralta and Gio combined to throw just over 180 innings, which is basically the workload of 1 starter, at a 3.24 ERA. That's going to be very difficult to replicate.

  11. #116
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    I'd be more worried about starting pitching but we've really been decent there two years in a row. Hard for me to attribute that to a fluke.

    The potentially much larger concern would be the loss of DJ. Also I think the competition in the NL central will be much tougher and as a result we could see a slide just from a difficulty perspective.

  12. #117
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    It was largely different guys though. 2017 saw Anderson go for a 2.74 ERA. No one should expect that again when you look at his career. You yourself said you're not expecting much out of nelson, so you shouldn't expect another 3.5 performance. And Davies over achieved that year to the tune of 3.9. Last year showed he's probably not a 3.9 guy.

    And the end of the day (if you combine Peralta, gio and miley as 1 guy), we've had a starter go low 3s or high 2s, another guy go 3.5 and one go 3.9. It's been different guys each year, but looking at the profiles of our guys, it's far from a given we have 3 sub 4 ERA guys again. And even if we do, you need someone to go low 3s to even meet last year's results.

    To me, there's a chance we are just as good as a staff. But that's probably the upside. Maybe we have a little room for improvement, but not much. There's a lot more downside risk with this staff than upside.
    Last edited by crewfan13; 02-08-2019 at 10:23 PM.

  13. #118
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    I get some guys might regress and others had good luck but with 7 or 8 legit rotation pieces if we sort out some of the weak links early we should find 5 solid pitchers all capable of being #3's with at least a couple of those guys that go though 5-6 start stretch in which they pitch like a 1-2. Obviously that could go the other way and all 7-8 could pitch down to their floors but I am confident we should be fine and maybe find someone like MadBum at the deadline.

    I also like the Lawrie signing that can be a sneaky good signing if he has his attitude straight we saw Jeffress straighten things out and hopefully Lawrie can do something similar. He was a 4.5 WAR player as a 22 year old, the potential to be an all-star caliber is there if he can build consistency.
    Last edited by jay87shot; 02-11-2019 at 01:13 PM.

  14. #119
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    It's interesting because fangraphs and baseball reference have wildly different opinions of Lawrie. BR consistently has him as a pretty good war player while fangraphs has his max war at like 2.5. Both have him pretty consistently as a slightly below average bat, so BR must really like his defensive metrics. It's a fine signing, but I'm not going to get too excited.

  15. #120
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    I thinks its very unlikely Lawrie makes any impact. From what I read he isn't even getting a spring training invite. Its a total gamble but no real risk.

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