2019 Offseason Thread

[crewfan13]

Probably a little early to start too many offseason rumors, but we'll put a spot together for it.

I think it could go one of two ways. We have control over almost everyone if we want. But we also have a lot of freedom to move guys if we want as well.

I'll break it down even more later. But at a high level, I think gio, Grandy and Miley are the only legit FA. We have a mutual option on both Soria and moose. Outside of that, everyone else is either pre-arb, arb eligible or under contract. So it's really up to us on all of those guys.

[crewfan13]

I was just breezing the 40 man roster. Right now it's full from the end of the season.

So here's my high level early estimate. Grandy, Gio and Miley are gone as free agents. I think we turn down our end of the options on Moose and Soria. I can't imagine we play shaw at 2nd full time next year and that's a lot of money to platoon those guys. And Soria is solid but not worth $10 mill.

That leaves us at 35 spots. Nelson will come off the 40 man roster and need a spot. I don't think suter comes off as I dont think hell be ready. I think vogt is released or stays on the 60 day as well.

We traded most of our rule 5 risk guys. I think Quintin Torres-Costa will get a spot. Maybe Bubba derby gets protected. So we probably have 3 open spots right there.

Then guys like Wilkerson, Albers and Lyles could be DFA'd as pitchers. If they have options left, I could see Lyles and wilk being part of a shuttle squad like they did this year.

For positional guys, I think we probably attempt to upgrade offense at catcher. So as much i like Kratz, he's probably at risk. Schoop is the interesting choice. I think they bring him back just to try to justify the trade and let him hold down 2nd until hiura is ready. Saladino is also at risk of DFA if we need roster spots.

Everyone else is safe from DFA but could be trade bait as well.

[jay87shot]

I would agree with most of your assessment I think the biggest question marks are with Schoop and Thames. I would think Schoop could be traded still (not get much back) but his upside and the value we gave away for him makes me think he will get a chance to be a Brewer next year. I'm not sure Thames makes the team next year, I think Santana will need to get some more regular AB's unless we get a value return for him, likely making Braun try 1st a little again to start the year. I would likely go with a 6 man rotation and try and trade Anderson and/or Davies to replenish our farm system a little. When someone goes on the DL you just run with a 5 man, that way you save the younger arms and Nelson isn't to overworked. It would be nice to be able to add a 1/2 type pitcher but I'm not sure if we are going to be able or want to overbid on a pitcher like Corbin. Maybe a Grienke trade where Arizona takes a contract and eats a little of his salary.

[long ball]

I’d let Gio, Granderson, Miley become free agents.

I’d buy out Moose, Lyles, and Soria.

Non-tender: Schoop, Pérez, Kratz, Vogt, Cedeno or Jennings (keep the other)

Anderson and Davies could be moved. Both are cheap and reasonably effective. I wouldn’t give either away, but would move them in the right deal.

Broxton and Thames could be shipped out as well. I don’t see a spot for Broxton and he’s now out of options. Thames would essentially be a salary dump. He’s not super expensive but he’s not really any better than what teams could get on the FA market with Duda, Adams, or Morrison. Losing that $6 mil in salary would be helpful for the Brewers.

Albers And Houser come to spring training with the hopes of making the team. Both could be DFA candidates but my guess is the brewers will want to maintain depth as long as possible.

Biggest need is either a bat at second or third base. I’ve been playing with the idea of Josh Donaldson, but that means Shaw plays second primarily which I’m actually fine with.

A utility player upgrade of Pérez would be great. Marwin Gonzalez is an interesting name. Whit Merrifield wasn’t previously of interest to me, but I’ve turned around on that and would be interested if the trade price was right. Eduardo Escobar’s 3/21 deal might be about what Gonzalez gets.

I don’t see any major additions to the pitching staff unless someone is traded. Probably a Miley/gallardo type depth signing is a given.

Ultimately I want a right handed bat with Solid on base and slugging. I also want an addition at catcher to at least be a time share with Piña.

The brewers have enough talent under team control to enter 2019 as playoff contenders. I don’t think anyone will just be satisfied if they don’t make any moves to upgrade, but we are already looking at a payroll of $105-110mil and that’s without Moose, Schoop, and Soria. So if any of those guys are back it jumps significantly.

[crewfan13]

I can't imagine all those guys get non tendered. Youd absolutely murder your depth.

Whit doesn't make sense to me now unless we are moving hiura in a deal for an ace or realmulto.

Marwin would be fine but I'd guess we stick with perez. His ability to play every position allows you to get creative
with pinch hitters and makes it easier to keep 13 pitchers for a few days if your bullpen has to cover some innings.

[crewfan13]

I really don't think schoop gets non tendered. That trade was made with the intention of him being the guy at 2nd at least for part of the year next year. Obviously he struggled mightily, but I think they give him a shot, if only to save face on the deal some.

I saw someone post on Twitter a suggested schoop for sonny gray deal if the yanks miss out on Machado. Didi needs Tommy John and won't play next year. Gray played himself out of new York and we've had interest in the past. Might be a good way for each team to get what something of value while saving some face in the deal.

[long ball]

You’re probably right about Pérez. He’s a spot I’d like to upgrade on though. He plays way too much for how bad he is at hitting.

Merrifield has professional innings at 6 positions. Primarily 2b and OF. He’d be the primary second basemen right away. If/when Hiura is up he takes time in the OF and 2b. Maybe first and third as well. Obviously the cost is the big question. But I see the utility guys on the Dodgers, cubs, and Astros and then I look at Pérez and I see that as a deficiency for this team at present.

David Stearns talks about stacking good decisions. Trading for Schoop ended up being a bad decision. Paying him $10mil, even if it’s to turn around and trade him for another disappointing expensive player is just compounding a bad decision. Why pay $10mil for gray or Schoop? This team is already going to be well past the opening day payroll of 2018 and i just can’t see the justification for spending $10mil on Schoop or Gray.

[crewfan13]

Problem with Merrifield is that the positions he primarily plays are covered. He's a 2B OFer and we havd those spots covered. He's not an every day guy and short, third of first. So unless you don't think hiura is your guy at 2nd, it doesnt make sense given the likely cost.

And I'm not saying it's a good decision with schoop. He's always been streaky but I'm sure having him at 2nd next year was the plan when they got him. I dont think that's gonna change. They still need someone to man 2nd until hiura is ready. You're not going to get someone decent for much less on a one year deal. So I'm guessing they keep him.

And gray has value. He didn't pitch well in New York but he's had success. And his old coach is our pitching coach. He's a great bounce back candidate.

[long ball]

I think claiming second base is covered is a bit of a reach. I don’t think banking on Schoop or Hiura to be a big contributor in 2019 is a safe bet or even realistic.

Even if Hiura does come up and hits well there will still be PAs to be had in the OF, 2b, 3b, and even first if needed. They could easily still get him 500 PAs with Hiura coming up and taking over 2b on a nearly full time basis by June. Taking PAs away from Braun in general and Shaw against lefties isn’t really a bad thing.

I just don’t think allocating ~10mil of payroll to a bounce back candidate when you don’t need to is smart for a team that is probably stuck with a bottom third payroll. Doesn’t matter if it’s gray or Schoop.

[long ball]

Obviously i have no idea if Merrifield will be traded or what his trade value is.

It’s more the skill set I’d be targeting vs the player himself. Versatile right handed bat with solid on base skills and low k%

[crewfan13]

But youre also allocating major trade resources for a guy who is a part time om player who's all over the field and out of position. You aren't getting Merrifield for free. He would cost a few very legit prospects.

As you dont think a reclamation project for $10 mill is wise, I dont think dropping the last of your recently thinned farm on a 1 year 2nd baseman and then a guy you have to sneak at bats for is wise either.

[long ball]

Acquisition cost is definitely a concern re: Merrifield. That’s why my last point was a concession that it’s more the skillset I’m attracted to rather than the specific player.

[crewfan13]

We're in a weird spot. We need to upgrade the offense but their isn't a hugd glaring spot to upgrade. 2nd makes sense, but we also have a guy waiting in the wings for that spot. So we really only need a 1 yr stopgsp that may not even be a year. But the other spots we could upgrade, mainly catcher and SS are tough, as they are probably the worst offensive positions in the league.

And we could theoretically upgrade 1st and 3rd, but the cost to get a true upgrade would be astronomical. So it's sort of a strange place to be in.

[long ball]

That’s why targeting a player with Merrifields skillset is so attractive to me as an armchair GM.

Versatile enough to play several positions and a good enough hitter to make an impact.

Zobrist, Kiké Hernandez, Chris Taylor,
Marwin Gonzalez. They’re like good versions or Hernan Pérez.

Continuing to give Pérez 350-400 PA each year sucks.

If they could give those 350 PAs to a player who is actually good it’d be great. Positional flexibility is really important for building a bench on the NL, but throwing out an 80 ops+ guy who doesn’t add exceptional defense hurts.

[jay87shot]

Here is an offseason list of what I'd try and do

1)Let Moose and Soria go, there options are just to expensive
2)Trade Chase Anderson, Corey Ray, and a mid-tier prospect for Zach Grienke (D-Backs eat about 5 million a year)
3)Trade Zach Davies for 2 mid-level prospects (Could be about 5-10 teams that would want him)
4)Trade Santana for Matt Duffy from the Rays(My thinking is a 3 team deal where Santana goes to San Fran and the Rays get pitching and/or prospects)
5)Trade Scoop and Thames for salary relief
6)Sign Ryan Madson 1 year 5ish million (team option for year 2)
7)Sign a potential power left handed bench bat for now I'll say Logan Morrison or Grandy

That would look like this
1)Cain 2)2B Duffy 3)Yeli 4)Aguilar 5)Shaw 6)Braun 7)Pina/Kratz 8)Arcia
Bench Option) Kratz/Pina, Perez, Broxton, Morrison/Grandy, Saladino, Dubon

SP)Grienke, Nelson, Chacin, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta
Relief Options) Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Madson, Jennings, Albers, Cedeno, Barnes, Williams, Guerra

Grienke would be a bonifide ace and not give up to much, we could easily afford him especially if we are able to dump Schoop and Thames on someone. Trading Davies replenishes our system a little especially if we have to give up Ray to get Grienke. Duffy is a perfect fit at sencond he can move into the 2 hole and is a high on base guy for Yeli to bat behind. Also when Huira is ready he could easily move into a utility role and bump Perez out of that role or even take over short if Arcia struggles again. Schoop and Thames provide nice depth but I don't have a lot of faith in either I would think that we could get a little for Schoop just based on upside, we might have to work at moves Thames. Madson would lengthen our pen and not cost an arm and a leg like some of the other top arms will because of his age and poor stats this year. My scenerios have left our bench weak so I would take a couple fliers on some bench players who would be very cheap and could bounce back also. We would have a strong 6 man rotation to lessen the load on Nelson and the 3 younger guys. When a guy is on the DL you can to a 5 man and still have Guerra as a fall back.

Obviously that is probably more moves than we will make but I feel like they are all pretty fair and would bring our team right up to our projected salary next year maybe with enough wiggle room to attempt a Wilson Ramos deal (which I think will have a bidding war that will take him out of our range).