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  1. #76
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    I'm right with you, I don't mind taking on the salary. My sticking point is taking on salary and at the same time taking away 1-2 guys that I think can have a major impact this season. Burnes is a non-starter in just about every trade scenario. Huira, since I'm a little more uncertain about can be had in the right deal. But I think for long term success, I'd rather use those young players than trade them away.

    I get that its hard to win a World Series under this model (I'd argue the Royals did it). Its hard to win in the MLB regardless. We just don't have the horses, and never will, to compete with the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers etc. So we've got to go about it a different way.

    Currently, I'm actually very happy with our bullpen. I like the Broxton trade. I also like the Claudio deal. I think with those two deals we landed two more decent arms for the bullpen. I'd still like to see us grab one more second tier reliever. I don't think you can count WAR numbers the same when considering this Brewers team. A huge part of the reason why the Brewers starting rotation had the success they did was because of the bullpen. I believe the Brewers consider this their model for success. I don't think they have any intention of going out and grabbing an "ace" unless the deal is perfect, because they don't need one.

    Same reason why we don't see them caving on a second basemen. If the perfect deal doesn't come along I think we're perfectly happy going into the season with the combo of players we have. Stearns is assuming that at least one of the free agents won't get the offer they want so they'll settle for a 1 year contract. That's what we want and if we don't get it I'd expect our utility guys to fill in until Huira is past the super 2 deadline.

  2. #77
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    Looks like we have had serious talks on MadBum. I would guess he will cost one good prospect and 2 mid-tier guys for his 1 year. If we could just do Ray and Brown (maybe Peralta and Erceg) I would probably think about pulling the trigger but I don't think we should give up Huira, Woodruff, or Burnes for him. I do think MadBum is an ideal ace for this team but his 1 year deal makes his asking price a hard pill to swallow.

  3. #78
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    The report is that the Giants want Peralta, Woodruff, or Burnes for MadBum. I could handle giving up Peralta not the other 2. Maybe we could add in Thames, Davies, or Anderson to add some value and shed a bit of salary. I know the Giants need corner OF but Thames' defense wouldn't fit there well. Maybe find a 3rd team that would give up some prosects for Davies or Anderson.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay87shot View Post
    The report is that the Giants want Peralta, Woodruff, or Burnes for MadBum. I could handle giving up Peralta not the other 2. Maybe we could add in Thames, Davies, or Anderson to add some value and shed a bit of salary. I know the Giants need corner OF but Thames' defense wouldn't fit there well. Maybe find a 3rd team that would give up some prosects for Davies or Anderson.
    Honestly, if someone is willing to give us a big time player for Peralta we'd be kind of dumb not to take it. I am not optimistic about the future outlook of a player that only has one pitch.

    In general I'm not fond of giving up a young controllable arm for a 1 year rental.

  5. #80
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    Grandal for 1 yr and $18.5 mill. Not sure how I feel about that. He's a major upgrade at a position of need, but according to reports, we stretched the budget to get him. So theoretically, that could be the end of our off-season. Perhaps we could deal guys like thames and Anderson and free up a little more cash for a cheap 2nd base option. Otherwise we'll be banking on dubon or a Perez/spang platoon.

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    I'm right with you, I don't mind taking on the salary. My sticking point is taking on salary and at the same time taking away 1-2 guys that I think can have a major impact this season. Burnes is a non-starter in just about every trade scenario. Huira, since I'm a little more uncertain about can be had in the right deal. But I think for long term success, I'd rather use those young players than trade them away.

    I get that its hard to win a World Series under this model (I'd argue the Royals did it). Its hard to win in the MLB regardless. We just don't have the horses, and never will, to compete with the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers etc. So we've got to go about it a different way.

    Currently, I'm actually very happy with our bullpen. I like the Broxton trade. I also like the Claudio deal. I think with those two deals we landed two more decent arms for the bullpen. I'd still like to see us grab one more second tier reliever. I don't think you can count WAR numbers the same when considering this Brewers team. A huge part of the reason why the Brewers starting rotation had the success they did was because of the bullpen. I believe the Brewers consider this their model for success. I don't think they have any intention of going out and grabbing an "ace" unless the deal is perfect, because they don't need one.

    Same reason why we don't see them caving on a second basemen. If the perfect deal doesn't come along I think we're perfectly happy going into the season with the combo of players we have. Stearns is assuming that at least one of the free agents won't get the offer they want so they'll settle for a 1 year contract. That's what we want and if we don't get it I'd expect our utility guys to fill in until Huira is past the super 2 deadline.
    For what it's worth, the Royals didn't win the world series until they made the mid season deal for Johnny cueto, who was a stud that year and they gave up goodx major league ready prospects for him. And while he wasn't as good with KC as he was with the reds, he did throw a complete game, 1 run gem in the world series.

    And I don't think the reliance on the bullpen is long term and it was a little overblown. Sure, we did finish 5th in bullpen innings, but we were 20 total innings away from finishing outside the top 10. We threw the 8th fewest innings per start, but we were less than an out away from league average. So it's not like we did anything crazy until September with expanded rosters and the playoffs. We still throw pretty darn close to the same amount of starting innings as most teams. And I wouldn't at all be shocked, especially if woodruff, burnes and or Nelson turn out to be better pitchers than say Anderson and Guerra were lats year that we finish middle of the pack or higher for starter innings.

    We rode the bullpen last year partially out of neccesity. It's very likely the bullpen will decline. JJ won't be as good. Hader may not quite be as good. I just dont think it's a sustainable solution to rely on the bullpen like we did down the stretch.

  7. #82
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    I'm mixed on the 1 year deal with Grandal, where it is an upgrade and Grandal should hit even better in Miller, I am disappointed that this move likely takes us out of the running for a big 2B upgrade or ace talk financially unless we trade away salary. I am still not sure if I like it overall.

  8. #83
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    1)Cain 2) Braun 3)Yeli 4)Jesus 5)Shaw 6) Grandal 7)Perez/Spangenberg 8)Arcia .

    I'd really like to see Yeli in the 3 hole and I'm guessing Braun would be more suited for the 2 hole than Grandal. I guess we can't rule out a 2nd baseman but if Dozier signed for 9 million today there isn't likely a huge discount to be had on Lowrie or Lemahieu at this point.

  9. #84
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    I see no reason to move yelich out of the 2 spot. He and Cain were dynamic at the top and it got our two best hitters big at bat's. I'd stick with something like Cain, yelich, braun, shaw, Jesus, grandal, 2B, Arcia and P.

  10. #85
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    The two recent signings at 2nd, particularly DJL by the yanks make me feel better about grandal. $12 mill was an overpay by the yanks and a 2 yr deal for an aging and at times injury prone lowrie seem risky. But either way, it looks like a steal signing at 2nd may be less likely than we thought, especially since both new York teams weren't expected to be part of the 2B market. I wouldn't be shocked if we still add a guy but the odds of getting a guy for like $4 mill who could be a full time guy was probably slim.

    It makes adding gamel look smart too. Originally, it looked like we'd have to at least consider keeping 5 OF. That's only doable if you have an everyday 2B. So platooning there wasn't doable. Now with gamel here, who can play center, and Santana and broxton gone, we can probably get away with the extra IF and can platoon if needed.

    And I'm sure many of you on here will disagree, but it does create a path to an extent for thames to make the roster as well. I wouldn't at all be shocked it the opening day roster from a positional point of view was Cain, Yelich, Braun, Gamel, Aggy, Perez, Arcia, Shaw, Spangenberg, Thames, Grandal, and Pina. Considering early season off days, we may keep an extra bat, so a guy like dubon may have a shot too. Given their options left, I wouldnt be surprised if we have gamel and dubon as part of the shuttle squad that we can send down or call up for short stretches depending on injuries as well.

  11. #86
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    Touching on a couple bits of news recently:

    I love the Grandal signing. I always liked the player and how he fit the Brewers, but I was nervous about going to a deal beyond 2 years just due to how catcher age. This is a huge upgrade to the Brewers catching position. Grandal has been a ~5 WAR/year player per baseball prospectus for the past 4 years. (I'm referencing BPro specifically due to framing runs being accounted for in their WAR value unlike Fangraphs or BRef).

    It always made the most sense to try to spend on upgrading catcher because there isn’t a highly regarded prospect or young player at the position, but due to positional scarcity second base looked like the easier position to upgrade because of all the free agent options. Now that they were able to upgrade at catcher we can reevaluate our thinking on second base. There's a decent chance Hiura (or I suppose Dubon) is called upon in the first half to help supplement the production at second base. The brewers have followed a similar plan for Hader and Burnes in recent years (Not exactly apples to apples comparison, but you get the idea of how they’ve treated top prospects in recent seasons).

    Something I'd be interested in is signing Jose Iglesias if he's willing to play second base. He's a fantastic defensive short stop and he still hits better than the production the Brewers got at 2b last season. He also gives some good insurance in case 2018 Arcia shows up again.

    A starting pitcher makes sense too. Gio and Miley would both be attractive options, but I think Gio probably gets a two year deal. I think Miley gets just one so I'd lean toward Miley. Clay Buchholz would be a solid option too.

    I'm not sure if the Brewers really have it in the budget to add another $10-15m in payroll or not, but to add those two player that's probably what it would take.

    I agree with Crewfan with re: to Thames. I like him and I still think he has a role on this team. If they're able to dump his salary and able to use those savings for Miley, I'd be cool with it, but without a corresponding move I'd rather just keep Thames.


    Bumgarner: the rumors have sorta died down on this by now, but I wouldn't trade Burnes, Woodruff, or Peralta for Bumgarner. I'd be ok with Ray + another 40 FV prospect, but not beyond that. Bumgarner's peripherals are about as good as Chacin from last season, but pitched fewer innings.
    Last edited by long ball; 01-13-2019 at 09:49 PM.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    For what it's worth, the Royals didn't win the world series until they made the mid season deal for Johnny cueto, who was a stud that year and they gave up goodx major league ready prospects for him. And while he wasn't as good with KC as he was with the reds, he did throw a complete game, 1 run gem in the world series.

    And I don't think the reliance on the bullpen is long term and it was a little overblown. Sure, we did finish 5th in bullpen innings, but we were 20 total innings away from finishing outside the top 10. We threw the 8th fewest innings per start, but we were less than an out away from league average. So it's not like we did anything crazy until September with expanded rosters and the playoffs. We still throw pretty darn close to the same amount of starting innings as most teams. And I wouldn't at all be shocked, especially if woodruff, burnes and or Nelson turn out to be better pitchers than say Anderson and Guerra were lats year that we finish middle of the pack or higher for starter innings.

    We rode the bullpen last year partially out of neccesity. It's very likely the bullpen will decline. JJ won't be as good. Hader may not quite be as good. I just dont think it's a sustainable solution to rely on the bullpen like we did down the stretch.
    The Royals likely win that WS without Cueto though. And that was the second year in a row they made it there, the first without him. While he pitched well in the WS I remember he pitched poorly in the ALCS. He also only pitched one game that series. The Mets weren't that great and just played beyond their roster to get there.

    And I guess to further my point, look where the Royals are now. That's what it cost to get them there. I'd rather keep up a winning ball club than go all in and hope we happen to get everything right in that one year.

    I like the Grandal move. Low risk. I think its clear we'll spend the money if needed. 2B I'm a little less worried about. I think the combination of our current roster + Dubon and Huira down at AAA to start the season and we have plenty of reasonable options there. At least one of those guys I'd hope would hit.

    I do not think we need more starting pitching. If the right deal comes along I'd consider it, but I'm not desperate to add another arm. Currently I think we're almost too stocked with starting pitching, even if we assume Jimmy Nelson isn't great we still have Davies, Chacin, Anderson, Woodruff, Peralta, and Burnes. I would be perfectly okay with a deal of Peralta + Ray for Madbum if that's all it takes. I'm not particularly high on either Peralta or Ray as I think both their skill sets are limited.

  13. #88
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    I think if we are to find a 2B platoon guy who can play SS to provide some security to Arcia I'd rather go with Freddy Galvis than Jose Igeleies. Both are great defenders and below average bats but Galvis will take a walk and is a switch hitter which would fit at least a platoon spot at SS or 2nd, although Iglesies would be completely fine. I'm pretty confident our heavy lifting is done until spring training. We will likely make some moves after a couple injuries to other teams or whatever happens then because of our pitching depth.

    SP- Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Nelson, Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Guerra, Suter (maybe eventually)
    RP- Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Claudio, Albers, Barnes, Williams, Wahl, Petricka, Houser, Perdomo

    Not to mention some top prospects who are close and Thames or Kratz (Pina less likely) who could be traded on the offense side.

  14. #89
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    I'm considering Guerra a reliever at this point. He has already stated the plan is to have him come out of the bullpen this year.

    Don't forget, both Dubon and Perez can play SS if required. I'm sure we'll dump a catcher too. You'd assume Kratz but its hard to tell for sure.

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    The Royals likely win that WS without Cueto though. And that was the second year in a row they made it there, the first without him. While he pitched well in the WS I remember he pitched poorly in the ALCS. He also only pitched one game that series. The Mets weren't that great and just played beyond their roster to get there.

    And I guess to further my point, look where the Royals are now. That's what it cost to get them there. I'd rather keep up a winning ball club than go all in and hope we happen to get everything right in that one year.

    I like the Grandal move. Low risk. I think its clear we'll spend the money if needed. 2B I'm a little less worried about. I think the combination of our current roster + Dubon and Huira down at AAA to start the season and we have plenty of reasonable options there. At least one of those guys I'd hope would hit.

    I do not think we need more starting pitching. If the right deal comes along I'd consider it, but I'm not desperate to add another arm. Currently I think we're almost too stocked with starting pitching, even if we assume Jimmy Nelson isn't great we still have Davies, Chacin, Anderson, Woodruff, Peralta, and Burnes. I would be perfectly okay with a deal of Peralta + Ray for Madbum if that's all it takes. I'm not particularly high on either Peralta or Ray as I think both their skill sets are limited.
    I'm not a big fan of madbum. His numbers have begun to decline, granted his total innings have declined, but he's been sub 2 WAR for 2 years and his peripherals suggest his era was inflated to an extent. I like kluber because he has sustained success. Madbum really hasn't, so I'm not huge on giving up 2 legit assets for him.

    We dont need more starter depth. We need top line pitchers if we're getting a starter. To me, Madbum isnt that guy anymore. If he was a FA that could be signed to a 1 year deal or something, then I'd be willing to spend money on a bounceback. But giving up a few legit prospects for a bounceback candidate isn't a great plan in my mind. If Madbum finishes the year as a 2 WAR guy again, he's basically within a win or so from what he's replacing. If we got a 5 WAR player, he'd be basically +4 wins over the guy he'd be replacing. That's the type of guy I'd be looking to grab.

    And even if you're not huge on prospects, they're still assets. Teams will still value them. No sense giving up on them for a guy that isn't a major upgrade. As of last year, Peralta alone was within a half win of madbum in 30 less innings. Sustainability is a question with him, but he's also 21. If he develops a better breaking ball, he can be dangerous. His FIP actually suggests his ERA could improve without it though too.

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