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  1. #2146
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    2018-19 Cubs Offseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Cubbiefan23 View Post
    Paxton 108 ERA+
    Quintana 106 ERA+
    Monty107 ERA+

    For those not familiar with this,
    ERA+ takes a player's ERA and normalizes it across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks and opponents. It then adjusts, so a score of 100 is league average, and 150 is 50 percent better than the league average. ERA is the most universally accepted tool for measuring the performance of a pitcher. But ERA+ is actually a more accurate league-wide barometer, because it evens the playing field for all pitchers. As a result, ERA+ can be used to compare pitchers across different run environments. ERA will lead one to believe that both pitchers pitched at the same level due to their ERAs being equivalent, ERA+ indicates that pitcher A performed better than pitcher B. ERA+ can be used to account for this misleading impression.

    Just saying.......
    Era+ for pitchers has the same flaw as Ops+ for hitters. Itís just an adjustment of another flawed stat. OPS is deeply flawed because it treats 1 point of slg as equal to 1 point of obp even though obp is much more valuable. When you adjust to create ops+ it still has this flaw. With era+ It doesnít rate the pitcher vs the league it rates the ERA vs the league. ERA is team dependent and it has subjective elements to it. Seattle was one of the worst defensive teams with a bottom third ranking in DRS and UZR. Paxton also gave up zero unearned runs in 2018. Heís better than his ERA.

    If you start with a flawed stat and adjust from there you still end up with a flawed stat. Thatís why tools like FIP/xFIP, k/walk rates, contact rates/types, SIERA, etc give a much better picture of an individual pitcherís performance.
    Last edited by CP_414; Today at 01:09 PM.

  2. #2147
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Yes. Just today!

    Have a great Thanksgiving!

    I'm heading up to Wisconsin to spend 5 days with family on their lake house. Going to the Badgers game on Saturday. Hoping for nice weather.
    Enjoy! Madison is fun, hopefully it wonít rain. Iím heading the other way, down to Illinois.

  3. #2148
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    Apr 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Enjoy! Madison is fun, hopefully it wonít rain. Iím heading the other way, down to Illinois.
    Have fun!

    It's supposed to be 44 with some sun and a 20% chance of rain.

    I go to a game every year, and we've had some very cold/snowy weather in the past.

  4. #2149
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    Jan 2005
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    So no chatter on this Rowan Wick dude from SD? Sounds like an addition to the Iowa shuttle crew. Apparently he was really tough on righties in AAA.

    However the fact that this is yet another guy with control issues makes me want to tear my hair out.

  5. #2150
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    Quote Originally Posted by davearm View Post
    So no chatter on this Rowan Wick dude from SD? Sounds like an addition to the Iowa shuttle crew. Apparently he was really tough on righties in AAA.

    However the fact that this is yet another guy with control issues makes me want to tear my hair out.
    My guess he's at best AAA depth (the Iowa shuttle crew, like you said), and worst case he's one of the 2-4 guys the Cubs acquire every offseason on the 40-man originally who get traded/released/re-acquired throughout the offseason off and on. Perhaps he's this years Luke Farrell.
    We're From Philadelphia


    We. Fight.

  6. #2151
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cubbiefan23 View Post
    Paxton 108 ERA+
    Quintana 106 ERA+
    Monty107 ERA+

    For those not familiar with this,
    ERA+ takes a player's ERA and normalizes it across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks and opponents. It then adjusts, so a score of 100 is league average, and 150 is 50 percent better than the league average. ERA is the most universally accepted tool for measuring the performance of a pitcher. But ERA+ is actually a more accurate league-wide barometer, because it evens the playing field for all pitchers. As a result, ERA+ can be used to compare pitchers across different run environments. ERA will lead one to believe that both pitchers pitched at the same level due to their ERAs being equivalent, ERA+ indicates that pitcher A performed better than pitcher B. ERA+ can be used to account for this misleading impression.

    Just saying.......
    If only the Cubs FO can find another FO that values Monty as much as you do they can probably get a top 75-100 prospect plus a few other lottery tickets for him. If, as you have suggested, Q can bring back a fringe top 100 prospect with only 2 years of control left at $10M a year, Monty at 3 years and a lower salary should demand a haul. The problem is no FO would see it like you do. That is a reality.

  7. #2152
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    https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status...618460674?s=21

    Starting pitching isnít the biggest need, but this is the kind of opportunity the Cubs have this offseason. The Mets are willing to trade an impact player and they reportedly want multiple mlb players back rather than prospects. The Cubs have mlb depth, not many prospects, and are looking for impact upgrades.

  8. #2153
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status...618460674?s=21

    Starting pitching isnít the biggest need, but this is the kind of opportunity the Cubs have this offseason. The Mets are willing to trade an impact player and they reportedly want multiple mlb players back rather than prospects. The Cubs have mlb depth, not many prospects, and are looking for impact upgrades.
    Kinda sucks Addison Russell has proved to be crap both on and off the field.

  9. #2154
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status...618460674?s=21

    Starting pitching isnít the biggest need, but this is the kind of opportunity the Cubs have this offseason. The Mets are willing to trade an impact player and they reportedly want multiple mlb players back rather than prospects. The Cubs have mlb depth, not many prospects, and are looking for impact upgrades.
    Pick 2 from Almora, Happ, Russell or Schwarber plus Q (or Monty-if they like him more) for Thor? Hope like hell the Mets FO values a few of those guys more wham most Cubs fans do.

  10. #2155
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Pick 2 from Almora, Happ, Russell or Schwarber plus Q (or Monty-if they like him more) for Thor? Hope like hell the Mets FO values a few of those guys more wham most Cubs fans do.
    Schwarber is probably the only position player you mentioned that possibly moves the needle for them due to his power, but he's an awkward fit on a roster that's already juggling a couple of corner-only lefties, plus he's already in his arb years. He's probably also a significant subtraction if the Cubs aren't going to be spending on Harper or Machado. Q would be a solid buy-low guy for the Mets if they're looking to capitalize on Syndergaard's value while also not bottoming out, but there really isn't the additional value for them among the Cubs' prospects or more expendable big leaguers to make this work.

  11. #2156
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    The more I think about it, maybe Happ fits for them as a multi-position guy who can switch hit. But again, I think they'd need something significant in addition to Happ and Q, and I don't think that Amaya is enough as a catcher who hasn't yet even played in high A.

  12. #2157
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Pick 2 from Almora, Happ, Russell or Schwarber plus Q (or Monty-if they like him more) for Thor? Hope like hell the Mets FO values a few of those guys more wham most Cubs fans do.
    I think Schwarber + Q is at least somewhat interesting for the Mets. They can have Russell if they want, but they already have a young SS that hasnít hit yet. Schwarber, Nimmo, Conforto is a good outfield. Schwarber has 3 years control. Q has 2. Q gives them more stability, and a good pitcher, but obviously a downgrade from Syndergaard in the rotation. Maybe those 2 + CJ?

    If the Cubs did that theyíd likely need to make 2 outfield additions. Itís a good amount of risk for the Cubs with Syndergaards history and using trade capital to upgrade on Quintana, but he has 3 years control left and is elite when healthy. Honestly, Iím not sure how Iíd feel about that. It probably depends on what else they have the money to do this offseason. If they canít replace Schwarber + upgrade the offense that trade could have pretty large bust potential considering Syndergaards risk.

  13. #2158
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Pick 2 from Almora, Happ, Russell or Schwarber plus Q (or Monty-if they like him more) for Thor? Hope like hell the Mets FO values a few of those guys more wham most Cubs fans do.
    I'd pull Happ out - don't want to give up on him just yet.

    The rest of that group are just disappointments to the highest order (relative to their "projections")
    Last edited by PeanutPunch33; Today at 02:12 PM.

  14. #2159
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I think Schwarber + Q is at least somewhat interesting for the Mets. They can have Russell if they want, but they already have a young SS that hasnít hit yet. Schwarber, Nimmo, Conforto is a good outfield. Schwarber has 3 years control. Q has 2. Q gives them more stability, and a good pitcher, but obviously a downgrade from Syndergaard in the rotation. Maybe those 2 + CJ?

    If the Cubs did that theyíd likely need to make 2 outfield additions. Itís a good amount of risk for the Cubs with Syndergaards history and using trade capital to upgrade on Quintana, but he has 3 years control left and is elite when healthy. Honestly, Iím not sure how Iíd feel about that. It probably depends on what else they have the money to do this offseason. If they canít replace Schwarber + upgrade the offense that trade could have pretty large bust potential considering Syndergaards risk.
    This type of trade would have to be accompanied by additional moves. At a minimum someone like McCuthen would need to be signed. Also, if Edwards is in the deal a pen arm needs to be added. If Russell is in the deal at a minimum someone like Asdrubel would need to be signed or a trade for Profar or someone like that would be needed.

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