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  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Current Playoff Odds in NL

    East
    Braves - 89-73 - 93.8% (same win, and up 5.5%)
    Phillies - 84-78 - 5.9% (down 1 win, and down 7.8%)

    Central
    Cubs - 94-68 - 99.8% (same win, up 0.1%) - 80.9% likely to win the division
    Brewers - 92-70 - 96.8% (same win, down 0.3%)
    Cardinals - 89-73 - 75.1% (same win, up 11.0%)


    West
    Dodgers - 89-73 - 65.0% (same win, down 7.3%) - 54.7% likely to win the division
    Rockies - 88-74 - 51.0% (same win, down 5.6%)
    D'Backs - 85-77 - 11.1% (same win, down 3.7%)

    Current playoff format would be

    Brewers host Cardinals in Wild Card game

    Winner of that game, would be hosted by Cubs in NLDS
    Dodgers would host Braves in NLDS

    I'm going to stop posting this everyday because the drama that looked like it was coming probably isn't happening now. We were potentially going to see as many as 7 teams fighting for the wild card. But the Cards and Brewers have ran away with it, and the Rockies and Dodgers are fighting for the NL West. Braves basically have the East wrapped up.

    It comes down to who will host the wild card game between the Cards and Brewers (and if either team can catch the Cubs for the division, though unlikely).

    And who will pull out the West, Rockies or Dodgers. Whoever loses that battle likely will be short on wins for the wild card.

    Current division chances:
    Braves - 93.5
    Cubs - 80.9
    Dodgers - 54.7, Rockies - 38.0, D'Backs - 7.3

    Wild Card chances
    Brewers - 81.1
    Cards - 71.7
    Rockies - 12.9, Dodgers - 10.3
    Do you really think the wild card race is over? Cardinals are 1 up on the Dodgers and you have it over? Or did you change your mind after a loss last night? The only reason the Dodgers and the Rockies wild card percentage is so low is because one will be the division winner. The second wild card is far from settled.
    I have to be honest, the damn Brewers have thrown a money wrench into both the Cubs and Cardinals master plans. IMO if the Cubs go 9-7 the rest of the way they should be ok with 94 wins. They actually have not played poorly, the Brewers have played out of their minds. But, like the Cardinals did earlier, they should slow down. I am pulling for the Cardinals to take 2 of the next 3 and even 2 of 3 against the Brewers. If they do that, both fan bases should be happy. Cubs should win the division, and the Cardinals should be the wild card. Honestly, as a Cubs fan, of the 4 teams who they could play in the wild card series, my first choice would be Colorado, but eh Cardinals would be my second choice. The Brewers in a short series early in the playoffs can be very dangerous. I think they will eventually tire the pen out with all the innings it would have to pitch to go deep in the playoffs, but to start them, they might be tough.

  2. #122
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    Jun 2017
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    I agree. The WC spots are far from settled.
    My guess is that the Dodgers will win the west and the Cards and Rockies will be fighting for the last spot.

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Yes, I do know what probable means.

    Since July 27th, the day they changed their roster, the Cards are 25-11 (.694), and run differential of a .685 team.

    To ask them to play .625 isn't probable?

    .
    How's that working out for you?

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by MylesB View Post
    How's that working out for you?
    You know that is what me and CP were trying to tell Jeffy a few weeks back. I don't want to harp on it, because Jeffy is a good guy and just a true, glass half full, Cardinals fan. And there is nothing wrong with that. But he got a little carried away with what was probable and what the reality of baseball is. He got a little too caught up in a recent hot streak and overvalued the team. Not exactly something that happens infrequently in any fan base. Cardinals still have a decent shot at that last spot, however. Even if they do not or did not, play .625 ball from the time he suggested they would.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by MylesB View Post
    How's that working out for you?
    The Cards are 6-9 since he suggested a .625 winning percentage in the 24 games leading up to the Cubs series was probable. But, if they win their next 9 games they’ll hit that .625 number.

    Obviously, it was never probable. It was possible, and technically it still is possible but highly unlikely.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by MylesB View Post
    How's that working out for you?


    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    The Cards are 6-9 since he suggested a .625 winning percentage in the 24 games leading up to the Cubs series was probable. But, if they win their next 9 games they’ll hit that .625 number.

    Obviously, it was never probable. It was possible, and technically it still is possible but highly unlikely.
    8-9 actually, 91 runs scored, 89 runs against.

    To be at 91 wins on 9/29, we needed to go 17-9, while we were 74-59

    To do that still, we'd need to go 9-0 until that date, obviously that won't be happening.

    We actually have the most runs scored since that date (91 runs in 17 games which is 5.35 runs per game, and as you can see, I had them projected to score 5.28 runs per game), with a FIP of 4.43 (projection was 3.79), which should have given us 75 runs allowed. But defense and bad timing has cost us at least two of those wins.

    Pyth should have seen us land around 10-7, which would be us at 84-66 right now, needing to go 7-2 the rest of the way until that series.

    Pitching has regressed a little, defense has hurt us, and timing isn't helping either. Offense is there though.



    Btw, Cubs are 8-8 since this date, to go 16-11 they'd need to go 8-3. Brewers are messing everybody up (10-5 since this date).


    Btw, I called back in in the end of July in the main section that the Cards were going to be much better, was laughed at over it, they had the best August in baseball, and I didn't bump that to rub in how right I was. I don't see the point in bumping this. If people bumped stuff every time they were right, how obnoxious would that be?

    It was probable because I was expecting the Cards to keep hitting like they were (they have), and to keep pitching like they were, which they haven't (Gant, Norris, Weaver, Cecil, and Flaherty in particular are the main culprits since that date), but it's not as extreme as the results show either.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 09-17-2018 at 06:46 PM.

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    8-9 actually, 91 runs scored, 89 runs against.

    To be at 91 wins on 9/29, we needed to go 17-9, while we were 74-59

    To do that still, we'd need to go 9-0 until that date, obviously that won't be happening.

    We actually have the most runs scored since that date (91 runs in 17 games which is 5.35 runs per game, and as you can see, I had them projected to score 5.28 runs per game), with a FIP of 4.43 (projection was 3.79), which should have given us 75 runs allowed. But defense and bad timing has cost us at least two of those wins.

    Pyth should have seen us land around 10-7, which would be us at 84-66 right now, needing to go 7-2 the rest of the way until that series.

    Pitching has regressed a little, defense has hurt us, and timing isn't helping either. Offense is there though.



    Btw, Cubs are 8-8 since this date, to go 16-11 they'd need to go 8-3. Brewers are messing everybody up (10-5 since this date).


    Btw, I called back in in the end of July in the main section that the Cards were going to be much better, was laughed at over it, they had the best August in baseball, and I didn't bump that to rub in how right I was. I don't see the point in bumping this. If people bumped stuff every time they were right, how obnoxious would that be?

    It was probable because I was expecting the Cards to keep hitting like they were (they have), and to keep pitching like they were, which they haven't (Gant, Norris, Weaver, Cecil, and Flaherty in particular are the main culprits since that date), but it's not as extreme as the results show either.
    Jeffy, you are correct. It sucks that when someone is wrong people call them out about what they said. And it sucks even more when someone is right and comes back with an I told you so". The issue I have with what you said, and you are still doing it, is your choice of the word "probable". You can take all the stats you want and toss the ones you do not like away, but it will never be probably a team will play .640 ball over an extended period of time. Especially one coming off a 22-7 (or whatever that stretch was) stretch. And truthfully your scenario called for even more than that. After the .640 ball you were suggesting all they then had to do was win 3 more, and sweep the Cubs at Wrigley. This is what my argument was with you. It was not probable then and still is not probable. I believe I even said I would not call it probable the Cubs won 16 of 27 going into the last 3 (or something like that) Sure, everything you said could have happened. Hell, maybe it still will. But you got called out, at least by me and CP, because of your insistence on how it is probably your scenario would play out.
    I still think the Cardinals have a good shot a the playoffs. My guess is they go down to the last day with the Rockies for the last spot. They can really help themselves when the play the Brewers, by taking at least 2 of 3 from them. First, it helps them get closer to their goal of the playoffs, but it also might help the Cubs clinch the pennant before the Cardinals series. IMO, that gives the Cardinals a better chance to get in. Cubs not needing the games will still put a formidable line up out there. But having clinched I believe they will not be all in the last 3. That is a help to the Cardinals.
    Last edited by rcal10; 09-18-2018 at 09:18 AM.

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    8-9 actually, 91 runs scored, 89 runs against.

    To be at 91 wins on 9/29, we needed to go 17-9, while we were 74-59

    To do that still, we'd need to go 9-0 until that date, obviously that won't be happening.

    We actually have the most runs scored since that date (91 runs in 17 games which is 5.35 runs per game, and as you can see, I had them projected to score 5.28 runs per game), with a FIP of 4.43 (projection was 3.79), which should have given us 75 runs allowed. But defense and bad timing has cost us at least two of those wins.

    Pyth should have seen us land around 10-7, which would be us at 84-66 right now, needing to go 7-2 the rest of the way until that series.

    Pitching has regressed a little, defense has hurt us, and timing isn't helping either. Offense is there though.



    Btw, Cubs are 8-8 since this date, to go 16-11 they'd need to go 8-3. Brewers are messing everybody up (10-5 since this date).


    Btw, I called back in in the end of July in the main section that the Cards were going to be much better, was laughed at over it, they had the best August in baseball, and I didn't bump that to rub in how right I was. I don't see the point in bumping this. If people bumped stuff every time they were right, how obnoxious would that be?

    It was probable because I was expecting the Cards to keep hitting like they were (they have), and to keep pitching like they were, which they haven't (Gant, Norris, Weaver, Cecil, and Flaherty in particular are the main culprits since that date), but it's not as extreme as the results show either.
    Perhaps it was a little bit of a "dick" move by me quoting a post from a few weeks ago. I apologize for that. It wasn't meant in the worst way, more-so to show you that numbers from a period of time cannot accurately dictate unreasonable results.

    The Cards have a tough road with ATL, SF, MIL and the Cubs left on the schedule. I think they pretty much have to win each series to get in. Although the Rockies have a tough schedule as well (Dodgers, Ariz, Phillies and the Nationals).

  9. #129
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    Rockies might be without Story for a period of time. Left yesterday's game with elbow soreness. Right now I think we need the Dodgers to sweep the Rockies and hope the Rockies play .500 or worse the remainder of the season. If Story's injury is serious then that could be demoralizing to them.

    Cardinals have to control their own destiny though. Treat every game as if it is a playoff game 7 from here on out.

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by cards7 View Post
    Rockies might be without Story for a period of time. Left yesterday's game with elbow soreness. Right now I think we need the Dodgers to sweep the Rockies and hope the Rockies play .500 or worse the remainder of the season. If Story's injury is serious then that could be demoralizing to them.

    Cardinals have to control their own destiny though. Treat every game as if it is a playoff game 7 from here on out.
    That's what I'm thinking. Dodgers sweep Rockies, we sweep Braves, that'll really help things.

  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Jeffy, you are correct. It sucks that when someone is wrong people call them out about what they said. And it sucks even more when someone is right and comes back with an I told you so". The issue I have with what you said, and you are still doing it, is your choice of the word "probable". You can take all the stats you want and toss the ones you do not like away, but it will never be probably a team will play .640 ball over an extended period of time. Especially one coming off a 22-7 (or whatever that stretch was) stretch. And truthfully your scenario called for even more than that. After the .640 ball you were suggesting all they then had to do was win 3 more, and sweep the Cubs at Wrigley. This is what my argument was with you. It was not probable then and still is not probable. I believe I even said I would not call it probable the Cubs won 16 of 27 going into the last 3 (or something like that) Sure, everything you said could have happened. Hell, maybe it still will. But you got called out, at least by me and CP, because of your insistence on how it is probably your scenario would play out.
    I still think the Cardinals have a good shot a the playoffs. My guess is they go down to the last day with the Rockies for the last spot. They can really help themselves when the play the Brewers, by taking at least 2 of 3 from them. First, it helps them get closer to their goal of the playoffs, but it also might help the Cubs clinch the pennant before the Cardinals series. IMO, that gives the Cardinals a better chance to get in. Cubs not needing the games will still put a formidable line up out there. But having clinched I believe they will not be all in the last 3. That is a help to the Cardinals.
    Quote Originally Posted by MylesB View Post
    Perhaps it was a little bit of a "dick" move by me quoting a post from a few weeks ago. I apologize for that. It wasn't meant in the worst way, more-so to show you that numbers from a period of time cannot accurately dictate unreasonable results.

    The Cards have a tough road with ATL, SF, MIL and the Cubs left on the schedule. I think they pretty much have to win each series to get in. Although the Rockies have a tough schedule as well (Dodgers, Ariz, Phillies and the Nationals).
    All good, thanks

  12. #132
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    Our Playoff Hopes

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    All good, thanks
    It still wasn’t probable.

    But there’s nothing wrong with being a fan.

  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    All good, thanks
    Good to hear.
    On the bright side, it would be pretty boring if we all agreed with each other all the time.

    I'm excited for tonights game because it is on ESPN and I can watch it. I don't pay extra for the MLB channel, so I only catch the Cardinals nationally televised games. I do spring for the MLB app on my phone, so I listen to allot of games. Sometimes that is better. Especially if I am mowing or working on something.

    Gomber needs a strong start tonight. I'm tired of relying on coming back in the game (although the Cards have done that well this season).

  14. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by MylesB View Post
    Good to hear.
    On the bright side, it would be pretty boring if we all agreed with each other all the time.

    I'm excited for tonights game because it is on ESPN and I can watch it. I don't pay extra for the MLB channel, so I only catch the Cardinals nationally televised games. I do spring for the MLB app on my phone, so I listen to allot of games. Sometimes that is better. Especially if I am mowing or working on something.

    Gomber needs a strong start tonight. I'm tired of relying on coming back in the game (although the Cards have done that well this season).
    I'm just hoping for 8-0 lol

    I'm kidding, but making that last week of the season important is fun.

  15. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I'm just hoping for 8-0 lol
    Nice guess!

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