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  1. #2041
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    That wasn't the question I asked. I agreed that "today" should have been "next week" in terms of when we get knocked out. I asked if you thought Manny Machado being here would have been the difference in doing well in the posteason. I don't think Manny Machado on this team fixes the issues the team was having, to say, beat Milwaukee in 5 games.

    The Brewers aren't world beaters, but they're also hot at the right time, and the overall issue the Cubs were having was timely hitting up and down that lineup. And I think the bullpen and the handful of hitters who had gone ice cold all at the same time aren't issues that a single hitter can cover up unless they go absolute monster on the field.
    Well you're moving the goalposts from "would they be in the playoffs" to "how long would they be in the playoffs", but I'll indulge you.

    My answer is, I have no idea how long they'd be in the playoffs. I'm a firm believer in the playoffs-are-a-crapshoot theory. Ice cold can become red hot overnight. Unlikely heroes appear out of nowhere. etc etc.

    If you're in, you've got roughly the same chance as everyone else.

  2. #2042
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    Quote Originally Posted by davearm View Post
    Well you're moving the goalposts from "would they be in the playoffs" to "how long would they be in the playoffs", but I'll indulge you.

    My answer is, I have no idea how long they'd be in the playoffs. I'm a firm believer in the playoffs-are-a-crapshoot theory. Ice cold can become red hot overnight. Unlikely heroes appear out of nowhere. etc etc.

    If you're in, you've got roughly the same chance as everyone else.
    I conceded I misspoke, so I'm not "moving the goalposts" so much as agreeing that I messed up with the wording of my original point. I should have said "I don't think Manny Machado is the difference between winning a series in the playoffs" and not the way I posted it. You are correct, the Cubs would have won the division with Machado, thus they wouldn't have been knocked out in a WC game. When I said "today" I mean this team wasn't going to go further in the post season than the first steps, but their first steps would have been further along just by way of winning a few extra games in the season.

    And I'm absolutely of the "playoffs are a crap shoot" theory myself. It's a lottery. That said, the Cubs may have had some raffle tickets heading into the playoffs, but the amount of raffle tickets they had, and the amount of raffle tickets other teams had, were disproportionate with the way they had been playing, and were playing as recently as Tuesday. That team on the field Tuesday was not a Manny Machado away from getting hot, IMO. Their ticket may have come up, sure, but I think they walked into the playoffs in a bad spot just as a team that a single hitter wasn't going to realistically change.
    We're From Philadelphia


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  3. #2043
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    Going on a run to the WS requires a combination of talent, luck, health, and getting hot at the right time.

    Machado certainly adds talent but doesn't move the needle at all on the other three. So Machado alone probabaly moves them from like a 10% chance to a 12% chance of winning it all. Something on that order of magnitude.

    But he would have taken them from 50% for the division to 99.9%.

  4. #2044
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    Quote Originally Posted by davearm View Post
    Going on a run to the WS requires a combination of talent, luck, health, and getting hot at the right time.

    Machado certainly adds talent but doesn't move the needle at all on the other three. So Machado alone probabaly moves them from like a 10% chance to a 12% chance of winning it all. Something on that order of magnitude.

    But he would have taken them from 50% for the division to 99.9%.
    Right...we've agreed on that last point.

    But I'll say this...I think 10% may have been to high for that team. The combination of talent and health that the Cubs had didn't seem correct. The talent in the BP was lacking considerably, and the health across the team was lacking, too. I don't think Machado changes a series with Milwaukee today. Maybe they get magically hot because they rested a few days at the end of the year, but I don't think at that point Machado and a few days of rest fixes Bryant's shoulder, or makes Contreras start hitting, fixes Edwards' into good-Edwards again, makes Justin Wilson start throwing strikes again, or gets the lineup to be overall more consistent. In the end, I don't think that one player is the player that makes the combination needed to win a WS one that the Cubs had.

    We'll just have to agree to disagree there because it's a question we won't be able to definitively answer.
    We're From Philadelphia


    We. Fight.

  5. #2045
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    For context here, weeks and months ago several folks (not all but many) assured us that the Cubs would surge down the stretch, the Brewers would fade, the division is a lock, no worries, etc. etc.

    I'm salty those folks didn't heed my advice to pump the brakes on that talk, and I'm even more salty that in the end I ended up being right.

    So all of that is the backdrop for this Machado discussion (from my end).

  6. #2046
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    2018 Cubs FA/Trade Thread 2.0: Trade Deadline Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by WhyCantWeWin View Post
    The return will be terrible. We could have gotten Machado for Russell but the FO way overvalued him. We would still be in the playoffs if we had Machado.
    No, we couldnít have had Machado for Russell. Just because trade ideas are discussed on here as that one was a few months ago, it doesnít mean they couldíve been real life trades.

    The rebuilding Orioles traded 3 months of Machado for 5 prospects, 1 high level in the Dodgers organisation. They were never going to trade Manny for Russell and unless we think Theo is a time waster, the trade was never even discussed. Itís pretty bad that so many people on here have bought into that trade. Itís not even realistic.

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