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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farty Farts View Post
    6-10 through the gauntlet so far. Dont win two in AZ. Time to blow it up. Amything less than 8-11 aftrr this series is a failure. Beating the reds means nothing in the are they or arent they argument
    We have 23 games before the trade deadline. Call it 21 before you actually need to do anything, including 7 against the Cubs.

    But you want to blow it up right now?

    If we go 12-9 throughout these 21 games, and 4-3 against the Cubs and the Brewers and Cubs are playing .500 ball, we would be buying assets.

    If we go 9-12, and 3-4 against the Cubs, and the Brewers and or Cubs play .600 ball, then it would be a good idea to sell off.

    There is zero benefit in trading guys right now.

    Our playoff probability right now is 31.5%. If we are 50% or better, the last week of the month, buy.
    If we are 25% of worse, sell off. If we are between 25-50%, then hold tight and make marginal moves.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    We have 23 games before the trade deadline. Call it 21 before you actually need to do anything, including 7 against the Cubs.

    But you want to blow it up right now?

    If we go 12-9 throughout these 21 games, and 4-3 against the Cubs and the Brewers and Cubs are playing .500 ball, we would be buying assets.

    If we go 9-12, and 3-4 against the Cubs, and the Brewers and or Cubs play .600 ball, then it would be a good idea to sell off.

    There is zero benefit in trading guys right now.

    Our playoff probability right now is 31.5%. If we are 50% or better, the last week of the month, buy.
    If we are 25% of worse, sell off. If we are between 25-50%, then hold tight and make marginal moves.
    god no! no! god no!

    this is why the last two and a half seasons have happened. Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results is the definition of insanity.

    i've been steadfast in either be good or be bad, cant be both which this team has been and currently is. yes there is time to make a move. we likely arent winning the central, we're 4 games out in the WC as of now. i'll give credit where credit is due that when this team looks like its on the verge of caving it bounces back. the sf and arizona series were nice, should have only lost one, maybe two. the loss in AZ was all on the home plate umpire. that said it wont change what did happen.

    if you want to make a move for the future, immediate or a year away and call that a marginal move..okay. but this team as of now, and beating up on the reds wont change my opinion. is not good enough even with big or marginal moves. if you move pieces for pieces under control beyond this year. okay fine. but they cant keep playing toe in toe out of both ponds come the last week of july if theyre still 4 games out of the playoffs. that really is unacceptable. its more repulsive than being bad. its a half *** attempt to sell tickets and keep job security.

  3. #33
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    Yea, I'm done with the mediocre **** as well. Hovering around .500 and outside looking in on the playoffs every season is what the freaking Orioles do, not the Cardinals. Either get some help to help us win, or shake it up
    Quote Originally Posted by heimdog8 View Post
    I didn't want to throw this information out here. I was a 3 year varsity starter at QB in high school. I played quarterback in junior college as well. I was considering playing division 1 football as well but chose to pursue my career in business instead. However, currently I am helping train with Derek Carr from Fresno State get ready for his pro day and the draft. I am also working with Cody Kessler, the USC quarterback.

  4. #34
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    if things stay the same in the standings our record aside come last week of july and colorado is still moving up i'd look to move CMart who i freaking love(though not in love with) for Rodgers and Pint/prospects. colorado's bullpen moves have been a mess but their starting rotation, 3/5 of it has been worse. gray is in the minors right now. if they think they can go for it by addressing the rotation and taking innings off the pen this is a move the cards should explore even if they think they are in it. its a huge loss, even with the emergence of Flaherty. Martinez is the only one with ace potential with Reyes status up in the air both short and long-term. But Martinez is really the only movable piece that has high value on this roster.

    basically you're moving forward with Flaherty, Miles, Wacha, Weaver and Hudson/ Fa (Kuechel) going forward till the Reyes results are determined. In the winter i'd shop the other martinez to al teams. he can hit, can he do much more than that? who knows but carp should be playing first base and leading off. also dump and by dump i mean dfa fowler too. if pham can get it back together hes fine batting 2nd behind carp if not, again move him.

    im fine with hypothetically moving forward with

    carp
    dejong
    molina
    ozuna
    rodgers (trade)
    bader (even if hes never going to be a big bat)/ oneill

    FA cf or lf move ozuna/bader to rf (pollock- injuries scare me, brantley) preferably brantley even if its lefty-lefty, one-two. maybe if you dont replace martinez with a FA and you roll with hudson in the rotation that allows you money for brantley and maybe even escobar (min) to play ss/2b. again if we got rodgers he can play all inf spots, probably same goes for dejong and escobar too.

    carp
    brantley/rodgers
    rodgers/brantley
    ozuna
    molina/dejong
    dejong/molina
    escobar
    bader/oneill

    (also looks like gorman is the real deal even at rookie ball. dero said he'd be a fast mover, looks like it. so the need to get younger(rodgers, dejong, bader/oneill)/versatile position wise makes sense too.

  5. #35
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    I'd rather move lesser guys for Trevor Story opening the way for Rodgers to take his spot.

    I think Carson Kelly, Austin Gomber+ others
    Quote Originally Posted by heimdog8 View Post
    I didn't want to throw this information out here. I was a 3 year varsity starter at QB in high school. I played quarterback in junior college as well. I was considering playing division 1 football as well but chose to pursue my career in business instead. However, currently I am helping train with Derek Carr from Fresno State get ready for his pro day and the draft. I am also working with Cody Kessler, the USC quarterback.

  6. #36
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    we are at 28.3% likely to make the playoffs right now.

    Unless we really trample the Cubs in our upcoming games against them, it's hard to imagine us needing to buy win now players at the deadline.

    Unfortunately, we also don't have a lot of obvious players that we need to sell. We are just so stuck in the middle.

    We could maybe get something for guys like Norris, but it wouldn't be much because there are a lot of guys like him available.


    I don't see any obvious trades that we should make

    Here is where we rank offensively and pitching wise at the following positions this year

    Offensively via wRC+ only
    C - 18th, but that's only because Francisco Pena got so many PA while Yadier was hurt
    1B - 5th
    2B - 16th
    SS - 9th
    3B - 5th
    LF - 22nd
    CF - 9th
    RF - 25th

    The corner outfield positions have really hurt us. Ozuna has been improving though, but hasn't been nearly the player we had hoped he would be.

    Fowler is a lost cause right now, and we should do whatever we can to move him and see if Tyler O'Neill can take over the position.

    Rotation FIP-
    8th

    Bullpen FIP-
    16th


    I think the one area that the team should really look into, is if anyone would be willing to take on Dexter Fowler, and what it would take to move him off the roster and let Tyler O'Neill play full time right field.

    Otherwise, we really need the series' against the Cubs to tell us what to do by July 31.

    I think it's going to be a quiet deadline for us.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farty Farts View Post
    god no! no! god no!

    this is why the last two and a half seasons have happened. Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results is the definition of insanity.

    i've been steadfast in either be good or be bad, cant be both which this team has been and currently is. yes there is time to make a move. we likely arent winning the central, we're 4 games out in the WC as of now. i'll give credit where credit is due that when this team looks like its on the verge of caving it bounces back. the sf and arizona series were nice, should have only lost one, maybe two. the loss in AZ was all on the home plate umpire. that said it wont change what did happen.

    if you want to make a move for the future, immediate or a year away and call that a marginal move..okay. but this team as of now, and beating up on the reds wont change my opinion. is not good enough even with big or marginal moves. if you move pieces for pieces under control beyond this year. okay fine. but they cant keep playing toe in toe out of both ponds come the last week of july if theyre still 4 games out of the playoffs. that really is unacceptable. its more repulsive than being bad. its a half *** attempt to sell tickets and keep job security.
    I agree that being in limbo sucks, and it's a bad place to be. But we are too good to sell off, and too bad to acquire a ton and mortgage the future.

    It's a position we are stuck in until the play on the field either improves or gets worse.

  8. #38
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    I bet we could cover $35M of Fowler's remaining contract and move him to another team. He is owed about $55M. This wouldn't get us a player back of course. But it might be best for every one to move on and part ways.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I agree that being in limbo sucks, and it's a bad place to be. But we are too good to sell off, and too bad to acquire a ton and mortgage the future.

    It's a position we are stuck in until the play on the field either improves or gets worse.
    That's why some times you have to pick a direction and go for it. It's "safer" to sell a couple guys off than it is to buy. Unless we can sell Carson Kelly and get someone to help now, but I doubt that is possible.
    Quote Originally Posted by heimdog8 View Post
    I didn't want to throw this information out here. I was a 3 year varsity starter at QB in high school. I played quarterback in junior college as well. I was considering playing division 1 football as well but chose to pursue my career in business instead. However, currently I am helping train with Derek Carr from Fresno State get ready for his pro day and the draft. I am also working with Cody Kessler, the USC quarterback.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    That's why some times you have to pick a direction and go for it. It's "safer" to sell a couple guys off than it is to buy. Unless we can sell Carson Kelly and get someone to help now, but I doubt that is possible.
    But in both directions, the value lost through that attrition is rather negative.

    We won't get enough value for the players we would sell to make it worth it because the market won't support the asking prices we would be satisfied with. And we would have to way overpay to get the types of win now players we would want.

    Both directions hurt the organization in the long run.


    There are no players we could sell in our organization right now that would be netting us top 25 or top 50 prospects that anyone would be comfortable with getting rid of. And getting guys like Arenado (not for sell any way), Machado, etc, would cost more than we could even offer, and if we could get them our entire team is shot and stuck to a stars and scrubs roster.

    Both directions hurt the team.

    It's why we are stuck, waiting for the play on the field to dictate the organizations direction. We have to wait and see what the on the field product produces before we can determine a direction to commit to.

    I agree with being relentless and annoyed by our mediocrity. But it's the position we are in, and we have to be patient.


    Let's imagine we were to 'sell'

    We could sell guys like Ozuna, Wacha, Norris, Wainwright, Holland basically everyone not controlled through 2019 and punt for the 2019 season.

    We can't sell guys like Carpenter and Wong and guys owned through 2020 or longer because the window is too great and we have too many near contributors in the minors. That would be reckless.

    But let's imagine we can sell those guys.

    We won't get nearly the return for Ozuna that we paid for him. He has 1.5 years of control, but he is basically a league average bat right now making $10M and another 12ish next year. We would probably get a top 100ish level prospect.
    That is an option.

    Wacha, while hurt, would probably get us around the same value.
    Norris probably two top 250ish level specs. An organizations 8-15th level specs, at best

    Nobody would pay Wainwright or Holland's salaries if they were DFA'd

    So we recoup a few low level prospects and clear some payroll.

    But our team is now destined for a 75ish win season. We have multiple MLB roster holes that we can't replace with minor leaguers right now, and while we have the payroll room now, we shouldn't spend it on anyone for the next off-season because we are looking at a sub .500 2019 season. Why waste money on expensive players to win now, when we are so far away?

    And, we wasted the teams opportunity to sneak into the wild card game this season.

    Now, if you want to add in Fowler, Carpenter, Wong, Pham, Martinez, etc as well. And do a total sell off, you aren't getting very good prospects in the mix. We are looking at more of the same. Pham's play has fallen off, nobody wants Fowler or Wong, Martinez and Carpenter would probably get us a nice return, but not nearly enough for who they are.

    After this major sell off, we have maybe the 10th best farm system in baseball? And are really far away from competing (think 2022 - hopefully). And while we have a ton of payroll flexibility, it's useless to spend it on any win now players. So the team wouldn't buy anybody, and we'd just be waiting to see players blosom over the next 5 years. And we removed any chances for us to steal the division away if the Brewers or Cubs slip.


    If we were to 'buy'?
    We don't have the prospects. We'd have to give up guys like Weaver or Flaherty or O'Neill to have a shot at someone very good (Machado) or anyone with actual control. Meanwhile, there aren't 2 or 3 rental players that give us the division. And we really mortgage our potential future seasons for a slim shot at 2018. Hard pass.


    Both directions are lose lose.

    I'm sorry, but we have to be patient. Mediocrity or not. The play on the field has to tilt first. Either to a long losing stretch or long winning stretch. More .500 ball, and we are stuck in this game until next deadline when selling guys for half year rentals starts to make sense if .500 ball continues.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 07-13-2018 at 08:05 PM.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I bet we could cover $35M of Fowler's remaining contract and move him to another team. He is owed about $55M. This wouldn't get us a player back of course. But it might be best for every one to move on and part ways.
    Yeah I agree with you on that Jeffy! It sucks that DEX is going through this. I've always like him since the beginning of his career and stinks to see him struggle and to get the treatment he's gotten recently. Probably could get a crap shoot type of a prospect if we pay that much of his contract.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by stlfan544 View Post
    Yeah I agree with you on that Jeffy! It sucks that DEX is going through this. I've always like him since the beginning of his career and stinks to see him struggle and to get the treatment he's gotten recently. Probably could get a crap shoot type of a prospect if we pay that much of his contract.
    And it would suck to do it.

    I still like the idea of him hitting second with Carp 1 and Pham 3rd, Ozuna 4th, Martinez 5th for a long stretch and watch him get going in that spot.

  13. #43
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    Maybe the play comes to that (being bad) but i think somebody in control has to put their hand in it and start the movement, even if you eat it in a deal or two. i get but dont buy that nobody would show up if we tanked for a season or two. like you said we've been in limbo for a few years now, i can see some more empty seats already i find it hard to believe this franchise still wouldnt get three million through (at least average in sales) the gates in 81 games during those seasons.

    i'd still hate to do it but id move martinez for a package that included a top 25 position player prospect. he wouldnt get a chris sale haul but he could bring in something right under it

    if you keep your main players and go get a story for example then you have to hit free agency with the idea to win in the winter, not that they havent but they have to do better than what they have been. by that, take more risks financially. sure story is young but he is 25, again young. he would fit around dejong, and ozuna going forward. but if you traded for him and then tanked it makes no sense because then youre looking at having him from 26-29 on bad teams. teams are getting away from keeping players around a long time past 30. thats why if its colordao i like rodgers for example with knizer coming in a few, and gorman looking like hes going to be as advertised and probably here in three more years if not sooner.

    if they tank they have to move some pitching. obviously keep flaherty, martinez is your big chip. you have to decide on weaver and wacha going forward. the starters are good enough to make tanking hard because its going to keep you in games and if (which would be fine) the pieces you brought back produce earlier and often then you arent getting the numerous top draft picks, which really is the main reason to tank.

    reasons or reason to stand still is the league is going to address shifts in baseball very soon, likely this off-season. so hitters should see their numbers climb back up and offense should return to baseball. onley said talk of having two infielders on both sides of second base, no more infielders in the middle of the outfield, etc...... are being talked about. thats not going to just help our bats but everyone's bats as well. so maybe you have to ride that out for a year which sucks for us but if youre running things and invested resources into it, then you have to give it a go post rules changes.

  14. #44
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    Time to look into selling parts of this team. The farm system needs more potential hitters. This team is not going to get any better this year or the next....at least from a defensive and mainly offensive standpoint. Manager needs to go and g.m. needs to go. Front office needs a shakeup. Would love to see DeWitt pack it in as well. But ....hey....Mr. Dewitt just said yesterday that he still believes this is still a good baseball team. Lol....lol. Is this dude delusional or senile? As long as the sheep.coming through the gates DeWallet is loving it. This f.o
    has not got a clue.
    Last edited by scottyballgame; 07-14-2018 at 01:12 AM.

  15. #45
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    Why do you want Trevor Story so badly?

    He's the same player as Paul DeJong, and we don't need a SS or a 3B

    Unless you are moving Wong in the process, I don't see the need or the upgrade (plus I question his ability to hit outside of Coors considering how many of his home runs are weak Coors home runs)

    I feel like Story turns into a .215/.290/.385 hitter if he leaves the Rockies pretty quickly.

    Not all Rockies hitters are going to struggle hitting elsewhere, but he has all the signs that he would. And it's not a position of need at all. He, like Mouse, isn't an upgrade for our roster.


    Also, if anyone would give us a top 25 prospect for Jose Martinez, than obviously you take that in a heartbeat. But there is literally zero chance of that happening.

    Jose Martinez has value because he is under team control, but he, like Tommy Pham, has never hit like this before and the expectation that he can sustain it isn't expected. Teams wouldn't give us much for either player. And we should enjoy whatever values they both produce for the team under team friendly deals that take out their entire peaks.

    You are significantly overvaluing what Jose Martinez would bring back in a trade. Like way over rating it. He could fetch us a fringe top 100 guy, and that's probably it. We just bought him 36 months ago for cash only. He's a nice to have, not a got to have, type of player. Even as good as he's been, nobody is going to expect him to be a 130 OPS+ hitter over the next 4 years and play competent, steady first base.


    If I'm in charge, I'm not doing anything unless we are over 50% likely to make the playoffs the week of the deadline, or lower than 25%. Though, always listening to offers that can improve the team, I wouldn't be soliciting them.

    If we are under the 25% mark, then you look to sell a few guys that you don't intend on keeping around in 2019. So if you don't think Bud Norris is a guy you'll extend in the winter, shop him for what you can get for him and let some of the younger pen guys get some high leverage opportunities. I'd see what Wacha and Ozuna could fetch, and if a deal made sense, I'd move either or both (though Wacha may not even be an option to trade away), and I doubt anyone gives us nearly the value we'd need for Ozuna.

    And I'd see if Fowler just needs a change of scenery that would make sense, or if he wants to try fresh in the second half to make 2019 more possible.

    Other than that, you are kind of stuck with what we have, and you'd look into the winter from there.

    If we are between that 25-50%, you probably just hold tight, because some good play in the second half might give us the wild card game, or we may fall short, but still have meaningful September games and attendance and viewership in another lost season.

    Then start looking to retool in the off-season, and start looking at 2020 and beyond (with a new manager).
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 07-14-2018 at 04:05 AM.

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