Tom Brady's Heir - New England's future starting QB thread

[Aust]

With the 2018 draft over with, an important roster spot hasn't changed much: Backup QB.

Brian Hoyer is still the #2 despite Tom Brady turning 41 this upcoming August. New England clearly didn't like the QBs in this draft to pull the trigger on a young developmental player to become the next face of the franchise. FWIW, they did take a QB late:

7th round pick (219th overall): Danny Etling, quarterback, LSU

We'll see if he makes the practice squad.

Nobody really knows how many more years Brady has left in him. He wants to play until he's 45, so finding the guy in the 2019 or 2020 draft looks like the smart choice. If Brady does play until he's 45, the QB will have plenty of time to sit back and develop like JimmyG. If Brady starts to fall off earlier, the QB will at least have a year or two to prepare.

The purpose of this thread is to discuss potential QB's as options to become Brady's successor. Draft quarterbacks aren't the only option. A starter or backup situation that can be pried away by money or a trade is also something worth discussing, especially since it happened to us with Jimmy.

I'm going to take a look at our current 2019 draft assets as a way to get a feel for our ability to move up if there is a QB the team desires.

Patriots projected 2019 picks:

1st
2nd
2nd (CHI)
3rd (DET)
3rd (Comp)
3rd (Comp)
4th
5
6
6(Comp)
7th
7th(Philly)

12 total picks as of 4/28/18. Those Chicago and Detroit picks are worth monitoring as they have the potential to be quite high. Right now I would guess the Chicago pick falls in the 33-43 range and the Detroit pick lands in the low 80's. If there is a QB the team likes in the 2019 draft, having a higher 2nd and 3rd makes it much easier to move up for him.
We also have all of our 2020 picks if the team wants to dip into those as a trade up sweetener.

Next I will be looking around the NFL at every team's QB situation to see the competition we could face in next year's draft. This is mainly for 2019's draft, if the team doesn't like anyone in next year's draft as well I will need to tweak this after the draft to look toward 2020.

Color code:
[Red] - No need. Set at QB for next few years.
[Gold] - Likely not a need. Could maybe see them making a move.
[Green] - Possible QB competition. Could see them drafting one or standing pat.
[Blue] - Prime competition, this team needs a QB.


AFC

AFC North

[Ravens] - They have Flacco for the next year or two or more and just drafted Lamar Jackson in the 1st.
[Browns] - Baker Mayfield was just taken #1 overall.
[Bengals] - They picked a QB in the 7th just like us, Logan Woodside. There was some talk leading up to the draft that the Bengals wanted a QB high to sit behind Dalton to start the process of moving on from him. They don't make a move. Sooner or later they are going to move on from an average QB in Dalton and I don't see them winning many games next season so they may be in prime draft position to grab someone. I wanted to go green, but I think this is blue. Dalton has one of the best QB contracts in the NFL, cheap and with no dead money. They can keep him as a stop-gap or trade him for assets.
[Steelers] - Big Ben could play a few more years. He just turned 36 though and Pitt did take Rudolph in the 3rd round. I could see this as a gold color code if Rudolph stinks as a rook, but I'm going red. I think Ben can play a few more seasons and the earliest they go QB is in 2020.

AFC South

[Texans] - They got their guy in Deshaun Watson.
[Colts] - Luck and even Brissett they like. Right now, I'm assuming Luck will be back healthy.
[Jaguars] - They signed Bortles to a 3 year 54m deal. There was talk leading up to the draft of them taking someone to sit and develop behind Bortles, they only took a QB in the 6th round. This seems like a green. After next season Blake will have 2 years left on his deal with his final year having a 23m cap hit with only 5m dead money. They can pick a QB to sit behind Blake for a year and if they like the kid's growth, cut/trade Blake freeing a ton of money. If they feel the rook needs more time, keep Bortles the final year so their young QB gets 2 years to develop. This feels like a blue as much as a green. Unless Bortles gets better, it makes a lot of sense to go QB next season. Having a QB on a rookie deal game manage a talented roster frees up money to make it more talented.
[Titans] - I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility. New Coach. If Mariota doesn't grow, maybe they grab a guy to eventually(or immediately) compete for that starting job. Some of Mariota's struggles had to do with roster talent issues. They did take Luke Falk, but it was in the 6th round. I don't think it's red, but I certainly don't think it's green, so gold.

AFC East

[Buffalo] - Traded up for Josh Allen. Also signed AJ McCarron and still have Peterman.
[Dolphins] - Make or break season for Tannehill. They can save a bunch of money moving on from him after next season.
[Patriots] - Yes, unless our FO doesn't love anyone like in the 2019 draft in which case we may be playing this game again for the 2020 draft.
[Jets] - They drafted Sam Darnold at 3. They also have Teddy, but he's apparently not guaranteed a roster spot, and Josh McCown.

AFC West

[Broncos] - Unless Case Keenum really works out, they will definitely be in the hunt for a QB. Lynch is a bust. I could also see Elway grabbing someone in FA, like Tannehill if the Dolphins move on. Blue for now.
[Chiefs] - Unlikely with them handing the team over to Mahomes. Loved him enough to trade up for him and move on from a solid QB in Alex Smith. Gotta give him more than one season.
[Chargers] - Philip Rivers is 36, they need to get someone to sit behind him for a year or two. I'll go with green for now. Down the line I could see a team lacking a fanbase riding Rivers out until he retires and then having a tanking season to acquire a top pick and generate excitement around the organization, pulling in new fans.
[Raiders] - Carr had a down year, some of that was on the roster around him. We'll see how he does with Gruden in charge. Maybe they move him and try to get Gruden's "guy". Or maybe he plays well or at least well enough. For now, red.

NFC

NFC North

[Bears] - Trubisky and they don't have a 2nd rounder, having traded it to us. They could be a potential trade up candidate for us in the first if they lose a lot next season.
[Lions] - Stafford is a gamer. I think they are set at QB, I don't expect anything.
[Vikings] - They signed Kirk. Another red.
[Packers] - Aaron Rodgers is 34. For whatever reason he hasn't yet gotten his desired contract extension sorted out with GB. He missed half of last season due to an injury. Still, I don't expect anything so soon. Hundley filled in admirably at times last season and they traded for DeShone Kizer, a second round pick from last draft.

NFC South

[Falcons] - Matt Ryan is 32 and is currently in the process of getting a fat extension done with Atlanta. Schaub is the backup and he's 36 with his deal ending after this upcoming season, so maybe they grab a mid round guy as a cheaper backup with upside. Still going red.
[Panthers] - Cam Newton is under 30 and playing well or well enough.
[Saints] - They gave up their 2019 pick to move up in the 1st round of this draft for Davenport. Unlikely they have the ammo to move up and get someone. Drew Brees is 39 and it's unlikely a smaller guy like him can take the hits that Tom(and his special diet/training) can for much longer. I could see them trading a player(s) for draft assets or dipping into their 2020 draft collection for Bree's heir. I want to say green, but I will go gold.
[Buccaneers] - I'm not sold on Winston as the guy(I'm higher on Mariota). If the team disappoints again and he doesn't make any strides, I would move on.

NFC East

[Cowboys] - Dak is the guy. Despite a down year last season, Dallas should focus on trying to get him players to throw to(Dez and Witten gone) instead of trying to replace him.
[Giants] - Eli is 37. They drafted Davis Webb in the 3rd round last draft and Kyle Lauletta in the 5th round of this latest draft. Could be green, I'll stick with gold. For the 2019 draft I'd say it's unlikely. For the 2020 draft, that could change.
[Eagles] - Wentz and Foles.
[Washington] - They gave up a promising young player and a 3rd rounder for Alex Smith so I'm assuming they would give him more than one season as the guy. His new contract will keep him there for the next 3 seasons. If anything, I think 2020 is a more likely time.

NFC West

[Cardinals] - Traded up for Josh Rosen in the first round.
[Rams] - Geoff is the guy. They paid a price to get him and he's developing well under HC Sean McVay. They have a lot of talented players on that roster in need of a contract extension. Could they trade Geoff for assets to get them a QB on a rookie contract in order to help pay for the rest of the roster. Pure speculation on my part.
[49ers] - JimmyG!
[Seahawks] - Seattle was taking a look at QBs prior to this draft which concerned Russell Wilson's agent. They did draft a guy with the final pick in the draft and have been rumored as a potential landing spot for Colin Kaepernick. Similar to what I wrote regarding the Rams, would Seattle consider trading Wilson for a haul and building up the roster with a QB on a rookie deal? I'll believe it when I see it.


What's interesting to see is how good of a position we are in to get a QB in the 2019 draft should there be one the team likes. We have draft ammunition and there aren't many teams that flat out need a QB.

Look at the NFC. Two divisions that are full red. 13/16 red, 2 gold and 1 green.
Look at the AFC. 9/16 red, 3 blue, 1 gold and 3 green.

Red: 22 teams
Gold: 3 teams - Titans Saints and Giants
Green: 4 teams - Jaguars, Dolphins, Chargers, Buccaneers
Blue: 3 teams - Bengals, Patriots, Broncos



Are there any college QBs or QBs that are currently in the league that you'd like to see us go after? How would you go about acquiring them?

[Aust]

Jarrett Stidham was a guy I liked and wanted to see us take in this draft. Unfortunately he decided to stay at Auburn for another season. I typically don't watch much college football, but I'll be keeping an eye on him and some of the other QB prospects during this upcoming season.

[Fla.SticKy]

I like Stidham too....... keep an eye on Drew Lock also, kid has put up some big time numbers already for Missouri.

[celticsman2009]

Jake Fromm- Georgia

[j-bay]

2019 is going to be a mixed bag as far as QBs go. The class is weaker as far as QBs go but there are some potential 1st round QBs here

Jarrett Stidham, Auburn
Shea Patterson, Michigan
Drew Lock, Missouri
Clayton Thorson, Northwestern
Will Grier, West Virginia

The one who is getting the most love, if he comes out, Justin Herbert out of Oregon.

[TKO]

A player I wanted to see in this draft was Iowa State's Kyle Kempt but he was granted a sixth year of eligibility.

Just a little background on him...He was recruited by Oregon State but was lost in the shuffle there and ended up as a Senior walk-on at Iowa State. He was playing in his first game vs Oklahoma because Iowa's starter left the team for personal reasons just four days prior to the game. The Sooners were also undefeated and the #3 team in the country at the time. Iowa State trailed right off the bat 14-0 and was down 24-13 at the half but Kempt led his team to five consecutive scores to upset them 38-31...ON THE ROAD. This was Iowa State's first win vs OK since 1990. Kempt had only thrown two passes in his career up to that time...both completions btw :-).

He finished 18-for-24 for 343 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs

He outplayed none other than the eventual Heisman Trophy winner, and first overall selection in this year's draft, Baker Mayfield, who was 24-of-33 for 302 yds, with 2 TDs

The 6'5" Kempt also led his team to a Liberty Bowl victory. If there was a Qb in the country last year with Brady's chip-on-the-shoulder makeup, and as the video points out, "laser focus", it was Kempt, and he can make all the throws you want...into tight windows.

Check out this video and keep him in mind next year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBfvp0RGxlk

[bagwell368]

The myth of Brady will stand so tall when he leaves that maybe we are better off with a year or two of Mr. Journeyman before the real next thing comes. I'm not saying I don't want the guy if he is gettable, just that the expectations of the Boston fan base is already the biggest/worst of ML cities.

I guess the next "Brady" would eat that up, but the next Romo would not. Chances are a lot better we end up with a Romo than another Brady.

[bigbangclock]

I agree with the thoughts of Bagwell.At the end of the Brady run the team might not find the "next Brady" or be at all like Green Bay that moved from Favre to Rogers.They might well build a great defense that carries them or a very balanced pass/run offense with mid-tier QB as starter that carries them for a while.I think the organisation is the most important thing,as long as that remains solid them team will remain competitive.

[bagwell368]

The team is in the same shape as '08-'10. The core is aging and going to age out. They are going to lose important pieces to FA. In order for an aging Brady to put up years like he did in '14 and '16 he is going to need a bullet proof OL, a strong back like Elway had (the kid has to learn how to lead shoulder first and run as he falls because this straight up stuff isn't going to work long term), and a steller set of recs (oh oh, our two main vets are going downhill, Hogan is on the back of a cartoon of milk, and our leading big rec is one mistake from being out of the NFL for good.

So, as I've said a bunch of times, TB won't be our QB at 45 or 44. He might be at 43 and unless BB pulls it together for him at 42 and 43 the end is going to be on a muddy field with limb(s) pointing the wrong way.

[MarcCrawford]

Wont be long before a report comes out saying the pats like Haskins. Wouldnt shock me if we didnt draft a qb this yesr in whats supposed to be a weak year. Theres bound to be a few guys released that the pats liked in the previous 4/5 drafts.

I dont buy any of it really but Kyler Murray is supposedly thinjing about staying in football. I wonder if he could be enticed by a team like the Pats sitting behind Tom for a few years. I still think its 99% hes playing baseball, probably just some tough emotions after that game.

[bagwell368]

I just don't think BB will spend a pick a question mark. Several of the young vet QB's and even from the last class would seem to be available, and BB has such an ego he figures he can make one of them into successful system QB. I'd rather use the higher picks this year on DE, LB, etc. - now if he wants to toss a 4th on some obscure QB that could be an answer in 3-4 years - fine.

[Aust]

I've heard the media speculate that if the Cards draft a QB(like Murray?) at #1, the Pats could work a trade for Rosen. That would be interesting. I would need to look over the game tape of how he did last season. They gave up 3 picks IIRC to move up for him so they would want compensation. Rosen and his contract would fit with Brady's timeline.

We have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds with one 1st, 2 2nds and 3 3rds. We can get our guy in the 1st or 2nd, find a developmental option in the 3rd or later, or we can try and trade back multiple times and accumulate even more assets to try and make a run at the QB class of 2020 which I hear is very nice.

[Fla.SticKy]

Thorson & Finley are two guys that stick out to me. I’m positive BB won’t move up to take a QB so these two should be there.

[JerseyBrave]

How about we trade with 49ers for Mullens! He wouldnt cost much but showed alot of potential with limited experience, would probably do him good to sit for a year or 2 behind brady and watch and learn.

Also we need to extend Trent Brown, and with rookie OL isiah wynn coming back from injury. Keep the OL strong for brady protection at his age and for Michel to keep developing because our offense has gone more ground and pound! Use our 5 day 1 and day 2 picks on LB DL WR TE.

I know it will cost alot but i think we need to resign or franchise Flowers, we cannot keep letting DE's go, to hard to replace them!

[bagwell368]

I've heard the media speculate that if the Cards draft a QB(like Murray?) at #1, the Pats could work a trade for Rosen. That would be interesting. I would need to look over the game tape of how he did last season. They gave up 3 picks IIRC to move up for him so they would want compensation. Rosen and his contract would fit with Brady's timeline.

We have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds with one 1st, 2 2nds and 3 3rds. We can get our guy in the 1st or 2nd, find a developmental option in the 3rd or later, or we can try and trade back multiple times and accumulate even more assets to try and make a run at the QB class of 2020 which I hear is very nice.

BB is the sort of guy to trade out a lot of these picks for higher picks next year. What that will get him is all the IR guys from last years draft coming back, plus some nice D pieces from this draft, and then enough muscle to grab the QB the year after. He'll have a maturing team to stick the new QB on. BB loves value, and nobody likes chasing minimal resources with valuable resources.