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  1. #346
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sportfan View Post
    I feel like if Dedmon needs to be traded for, I'd rather just attempt to sign Baynes at 5M and keep 27/Yabu. Definitely a guy I look at in FA though.
    In a vacuum I certainly can't deny that this is the max value route. A couple of counterpoints though:

    1) If we re-sign Smart or replace him with the full MLE and then try to retain Baynes on top of that Yabusele is probably going to have to be a salary dump if we stay under the luxury tax. So he might be gone in either scenario.

    2) We're so loaded with back of the roster young players and late 1sts that at some point we almost have to consolidate. Don't get me wrong, we saw this year how important depth can be. But you also have a balance where instead of keeping good options for the 13-15th spots on the roster you might be better off strengthening your actual rotation.

    I think Dedmon over Baynes would be a pretty noticeable upgrade. He brings the same defense and rebounding and we saw a huge spike in Baynes' value with that little shooting hot streak he went on. Well that's what Dedmon is on a normal day, not just for a hot stretch. You mentioned in an earlier post that we're a team with few weaknesses... I agree and another way to phrase that is if we have limited avenues to improve. I think maintaining the defense/rebounding that Baynes provides while also having a shooting threat on top of it is one of those avenues. Like you mentioned, this won't be an offseason for fireworks in all likelihood but I really feel Dedmon would be one of those under the radar moves we can make that would really pay dividends for us. At a very low cost to us in the grand scheme of things I think he can make a pretty big impact for us.

    Seems like Memphis will prioritize bringing back Tyreke. Another guy I'd like to pursue in FA but I'm not sure how we entice him. He won't start nor get big money from us. he'll require the full MLE for him to seriously consider us IMO and that means no Smart then. I think he would make Rozier expendable as well if we move him Personally don't think we need him as much as we did last year. Kyrie, Gordon, Tatum, can all handle the ball and create their own shot and that's Tyreke's game.
    Memphis can only offer him up to the MLE since they only have non-bird rights that are worth less than that. I only view him as a possibility if Smart is allowed to walk in which case we can match that full MLE offer. Maybe he'd want to stay in Memphis for a bigger role but I like to think that for the same amount of money he'd strongly consider being the 6th man on a title contending team which is still a pretty big role.

    Denver definitely has interesting prospects, and with Kroneke as owner you know they're going to avoid lux tax. I think Rozier to Denver is a legit possibility still. From what i've heard, they still like Juan a lot but he just had injuries last year. Beasley and Lydon shouldn't be too hard to get, I like Beasley more.
    Well, I wasn't mentioning any of those guys as possibilities for Rozier. Just keeping an eye out for teams that might be dumping semi-useful or potentially semi-useful pieces for nothing due to cash considerations.

    I do think if we move Rozier that DEN could be in play. But I'm thinking more #14. The list of players I mentioned are all too "meh" to make it worth moving Rozier and their other young guys are too good for them to move for Rozier. I also think DEN would struggle to pay Rozier after the season considering they want to extend Jokic and Barton while unwilling to pay the tax. So ultimately I just don't see a fit working there.

    Bebe is interesting at the vet min. He was solid in Toronto but Poetl pulled him from the rotation. I'd offer him a vet min nothing more for the Monroe spot.
    Pretty much. Not sure we'd have a big role for him so if he's got a minimum offer here and elsewhere he might take the better shot at playing time. But I think he's a very intriguing flier to take.

    I've looked at Beverly/Milos trade options with the Clippers too, but Rozier wont get you 13 and one of their PG's.
    Well I suggested including #27 with Rozier. My trade value comparison for Rozier is George Hill dealt in the same scenario (one year before RFA, stuck behind all star PG but shown good flashes) for the #15 pick. So the #13 pick I think for Rozier is a fair starting point. And then Korver getting dealt as an expiring contract to CLE for a late 1st is I think comparable to Beverly which is where #27 comes in. Every scenario is different but with those comparables in mine I think Rozier/#27 for #13/Beverly is a conversation starter at least.

    You mentioned above how Evans could be marginalized in our rotation because so many other guys can create. The same applies to Rozier to some extent. So I think with Beverly being a better shooter/defender he might actually be better than Rozier for us. Plus we'd get to add a lottery pick in this trade for a controllable asset. That's the upside - the downside is a much worse Kyrie contingency plan because then Rozier's skill set is no longer marginalized and instead something we'd really need. That's kind of the trade off.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  2. #347
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oakmont_4 View Post
    I love how fickle this board is. We've spend the last 4 years chasing All Stars. Everyone was pessimistic that we could even get one. And then we got Al, but he wasn't good enough. So then we signed Hayward but that wasn't enough. Finally we trade for Kyrie and everyone is shocked. The possibilities are endless at this point. Then Hayward gets hurt game 1. Then Kyrie gets hurt.

    Now, here we are. 4 years after begging and hoping for All Stars, we have 3 who have yet to play a single game together....We want to trade Kyrie. Truly amazing. And complete idiotic.

    Summer of LeBron are like the full moon. Everyone gets a little crazy. Might take a break from this nonsense for a while.
    Can you guarantee that Kyrie re-signs? Because if he doesn't, the vision for the short-term becomes more sober.

    And fickle? You left out the piece about possiblelong-term knee issues (on player whose game is based on quickness/speed) and having to pay KI ~200M. While juggling all of the young talent.

    Plus, everyone unanimously thought this would be Kyrie's team before the season. Then we got a taste of Tatum, which could change how this roster is built.

    The possibilities are endless yet we're fickle, which is it?

    Moreover, your defensive core could be shelled this off-season if AB, MS, GM walk. MM demands a trade. That has major roster implications when KI and GH are below average defensively. You're not gonna out Golden State Golden State.
    Last edited by elements1985; 06-10-2018 at 11:38 PM.

  3. #348
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    Quote Originally Posted by AntiG View Post
    Just sit back with some good whisky and enjoy whatever happens. if we don't make any moves outside than bringing back Smart, then we are title contenders.

    If Ainge decides to go full blast and acquire Lebron for Hayward, then we are also title contenders.

    If Kyrie gets moved for what we should assume would be equal value in terms of quality of player (Porzingis, KAT, etc), then we are also title contenders.

    Either way, we are in great shape right now with plenty of ammo to make bigger moves if he can work his magic and we can look forward to more exciting years like the past two, as opposed to being in the perpetual dumpster.
    Stay far away from Porzingis, if Kyries injuries scare you then this dude should for sure run you off.

  4. #349
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    Quote Originally Posted by elements1985 View Post
    Can you guarantee that Kyrie re-signs? Because if he doesn't, the vision for the short-term becomes more sober.
    No I can't. But if Danny is a good GM, and he is, he'll have that conversation with Kyrie this offseason. If a Championship is his #1 goal...Why wouldn't he re-sign. Oh and then there's that money thing where we can offer more than any other team. Is it a guarantee? No. But there's more reasons he will re-sign than he won't.

    And fickle? You left out the piece about possiblelong-term knee issues (on player whose game is based on quickness/speed) and having to pay KI ~200M. While juggling all of the young talent.
    I already posted at length about his knee injury. I have zero concerns about that knee in the next 4-5 years.

    Plus, everyone unanimously thought this would be Kyrie's team before the season. Then we got a taste of Tatum, which could change how this roster is built.
    Tatum was undoubtedly fantastic this year. But he's 20 years old. This team is a long ways away from following a 20 year old. It's Horfords team, it has been since he arrived. Kyrie came here not to be "the man" but to be apart of a team, not LeBron side kick.

    The possibilities are endless yet we're fickle, which is it?
    When you spend 4 years begging for All Stars and then after 30 minutes of having 3 there's discussions at length about dealing all 3...That's fickle. Not endless possibilities. Again, this core hasn't even played a full game together.

    Moreover, your defensive core could be shelled this off-season if AB, MS, GM walk. MM demands a trade. That has major roster implications when KI and GH are below average defensively. You're not gonna out Golden State Golden State.
    First off, if you're going to consider Greg 'can't move my feet' Monroe as part of your defensive core. You've got problems. I'm likely the only one on this board who feels Smart should be brought back for anything under $18M a year. AB will be back, unless someone's offering him a Bismack Biyombo contract which is highly unlikely.

    Hayward does not play below average defense. He's average to slightly better than. I give him a C+ B- in that area. Kyrie is not a great defender, but he played the best defense in his career under Stevens.

    We can easily bring back any of those players we choose as we currently stand. Those options dwindle when you start messing with the big contracts. So by choosing to deal someone like Kyrie, losing those guys comes with the territory that you're voluntarily going down. If we stand pat, and make small moves, bringing those guys back is rather easy...And a no brainer.

    City of Champions

  5. #350
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    Quote Originally Posted by TKO View Post
    I don't think it's fickle to look at the possibilities. It's possible Irving will bolt next July and that means the Celts gave up the 8th overall pick for an injury shortened 2018 and a player coming back with a questionable knee in 2019.

    Why not trade him to get something when you might end up with a still-rehabbing player next year and then nothing?

    There are reasons to stick with him but there are reasons to cut your potential losses too so we'll see what happens.

    If a deal makes sense, DA shouldn't be a accused of being fickle or stupid for taking it. IMO of course
    .
    I'm not in disagreement there. If a team comes to Danny with a offer that is an overpay...You take it. If someone comes to you with a Franchise player for Kyrie, you take it. But that's not really what's being discussed here. People want to unload him for draft picks and role players...Ridiculous.

    If SAS calls Danny and says we want Kyrie and we're willing to trade Kawhi. Ok. You take a long hard look at that and likely say yes. But that's different than shopping a top 10 NBA player around the NBA.

    City of Champions

  6. #351
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    Quote Originally Posted by BostonBoy View Post
    Let me ask you a question: if you were the GM, wouldnít you be constantly looking to upgrade your roster? I would hope the answer is yes. You act as if the injuries are no big deal. Hayward doesnít have an injury history and this was quite the freak injury, so Iím not worried about him breaking down yet.
    Of course. But there aren't many ways to trade a top 10 NBA player and upgrade your roster. I'm still waiting to hear one.

    Kyrie on the other hand has missed 123 games in 7 years and thatís not including this postseason. He has even more knee complications now than he did before. Why wouldnít you look to upgrade to an even better, more durable player if you could? Or perhaps you trade him for assets if you think heíll break down? It might not happen, but itís worth exploring, no?
    See my lengthy post about Kyrie's missed games. It's not nearly as bad when broken down as it looks when you see X many missed games. His injuries early on were not related to the knee...Broken hand. Broken face. He played 92% of his games prior to blowing out his kneed. He missed 25 games the next season because the injury happened in the finals. He came back. He missed 4 games the rest of the season. He played in every playoff game at an elite level and helped LeBron to his only championship in CLE. He proceeded to play a high percentage of games the following season and again 100% of the playoff games going back to the finals.

    Again. Who are we trading Kyrie for that's better than Kyrie. Haven't seen those posts. You were just responding to a post that wanted DSJ and #5. Tell me how that makes us better? It doesn't.

    City of Champions

  7. #352
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sportfan View Post
    There is a huge difference between looking to improve your team and trading away half the team every single year.

    You fail to realize that injuries bring down Kyrie and Gordon's trade value immensely. There's no reason to go explore the market for them and sell low. If the Cavs or Lebron approach us about working on a S&T or the Spurs say they want to discuss Kawhi, then we can put these guys on the table potentially. But there is no reason for Ainge to go searching the trade market dangling these two guys.

    You can always upgrade your team, but this is the first since 2010 that we've had a team without any major weakness. Our main priority shouldn't be making a splash
    Finally. Someone with some sense.

    City of Champions

  8. #353
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Just to take a step back from the speculation and re-set on where we stand going into the draft and FA...

    Gordon Hayward $31,214,295
    Al Horford $28,928,705
    Kyrie Irving $20,099,188
    Jayson Tatum $6,700,800
    Marcus Morris $5,375,000
    Jaylen Brown $5,169,960
    Terry Rozier $3,050,390
    Guershon Yabusele $2,667,600
    #27 pick $1,640,400 (cap hold)
    Abdel Nader $1,378,242 (partial guarantee)
    Semi Ojeleye $1,378,242 (partial guarantee)
    Daniel Theis $1,378,242 (partial guarantee)

    That's a total of $108,981,064 for 12 players. The cap is expected to be $101M. The luxury tax threshold is expected to be $123M. So before any moves we start the year $7,981,064 over the cap and $14,018,936 under the luxury tax line.

    I think we'll end up bringing Baynes back with his non bird rights for about $5.2M. I think his market will settle there.

    After that we'll have to make a call on Smart. If we think he gets a reasonable price they'll salary dump Yabu with Nader's partial guarantee attached) to make a little extra room. That would make it possible to sign Smart under the tax for one year. If he gets more than we feel comfortable paying then we'll use the MLE on Tyreke Evans.
    I think ownership prefers to stay under the tax for 1 more year and that'll likely be Danny's biggest challenge this offseason. If/when the re-sign Kyrie they'll be over the tax for the foreseeable future...Even with Horfords contract expiring soon. Too many guys that will need to get paid.

    I think there's about a 90% chance Yabu is traded. The contract just doesn't match the output, it's an easy way to shed some cap with zero effect on the roster. I think Morris and Nader are also likely gone. Hayward takes Morris playing time and Nader is a non factor. Between the 3 that's $10M off the cap. That'll get put towards bringing Smart back. AB likely comes back with a small raise. #27 I can see as a draft and stash or move back for 2nd rounder's to save additional dollars.

    With the savings from Yabu/Morris/Nader that puts us $25M under the tax with 4-6 roster spots to fill. Smart will take a good portion of that. Baynes takes another slice. If we can bring them both back for about $20M. Leaving $5M for 2 roster spots. We can add 2 second round picks for under $2M to fill the rest of the roster. Leaving about $3.2M to spend on a veteran who's our 10-11th man.

    City of Champions

  9. #354
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    Quote Originally Posted by AntiG View Post
    Just sit back with some good whisky and enjoy whatever happens. if we don't make any moves outside than bringing back Smart, then we are title contenders.

    If Ainge decides to go full blast and acquire Lebron for Hayward, then we are also title contenders.

    If Kyrie gets moved for what we should assume would be equal value in terms of quality of player (Porzingis, KAT, etc), then we are also title contenders.

    Either way, we are in great shape right now with plenty of ammo to make bigger moves if he can work his magic and we can look forward to more exciting years like the past two, as opposed to being in the perpetual dumpster.
    Yes sir. I'm not so high on the LBJ idea, but whatever DA pulls off will likely be justified by the conditions of the market.

    But let's get serious - Scotch - Oban 14 year old or 18 year old Macallan "Fine Oak".

    I didn't like the KL idea most of the time, but if we get him and hang onto Brown, then no need for Smart which means we could afford a better C then the hard working but limited Baynes chap (ESPN has him as the 94th best C in the NBA - seems low, but he's not special) we have now, and for a back-up PG.

    So, Hayward, #27, and the two lesser of our 3 acquired picks for KL & 18 in '18.

    then the 3rd acquired pick, Rozier, 1st 'in '21 for 5 or 6 thiis year

    #18, Theis, a 2nd, for 15-16 and get a back-up PG.

    and yes, let's ditch Morris.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 06-11-2018 at 06:58 AM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  10. #355
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Yes sir. I'm not so high on the LBJ idea, but whatever DA pulls off will likely be justified by the conditions of the market.

    But let's get serious - Scotch - Oban 14 year old or 18 year old Macallan "Fine Oak".

    I didn't like the KL idea most of the time, but if we get him and hang onto Brown, then no need for Smart which means we could afford a better C then the hard working but limited Baynes chap (ESPN has him as the 94th best C in the NBA - seems low, but he's not special) we have now, and for a back-up PG.
    Not very well thought out. Letting Smart walk doesn't free up any cap space to sign a better C. With or without Smart and Baynes the equation doesn't change. We can only spend MLE and minimum deals. Which we can retain Smart and Baynes and still spend MLE and minimum deals. It's highly unlikely you get a C better than Baynes for $5M (MLE). You could get said C and still bring back Baynes in the same scenario.

    So, Hayward, #27, and the two lesser of our 3 acquired picks for KL & 18 in '18.

    then the 3rd acquired pick, Rozier, 1st 'in '21 for 5 or 6 thiis year

    #18, Theis, a 2nd, for 15-16 and get a back-up PG.

    and yes, let's ditch Morris.
    So basically our roster is.

    PG - Some PG who's better than Rozier but not better than Kyrie. And a backup that's slightly better than Theis

    SG Brown/Nader

    SF Leonard/Ojeleye

    PF Tatum/Yabusele

    C Horford/Some backup who's not going to be better than Baynes at $5M

    How is this better? That teams not going very far. No depth. No future picks because we spent them to marginally improve the starting rotation and deplete the bench.

    I'll take

    Kyrie/Rozier
    Brown/Smart
    Hayward/MLE/Ojeleye
    Tatum/Morris
    Horford/Baynes/Theis

    Over that all day

    City of Champions

  11. #356
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    Everyone is penciling in Smart to be back next year.....What the back up plan if he bolts?? Everyone going to fall back in love with their favorite trade bait, Rozay? Use the MLE on....tyreke? Draft....Khyri Thomas?? Grayson Allen?
    Last edited by CELTICS4LYFE; 06-11-2018 at 11:58 AM.

  12. #357
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    Could it be possible to use #27, Yabusele, Nader and maybe even Morris to get 19 and 30 from the Hawks. To Target Mitchell Robinson and Anfernee Simmons. Itís 2 high high reward prospects.

    Irving/Rozier/Simmons
    Brown/Smart
    Hayward/Ojeleye
    Tatum/Theis
    Horford/Baynes/Mitchell

    Ideally we could use #27 Yabu and Nader to get 30 and 33 &keep Morris but I think I saw Mitchell has a gaurentee from a team in the earlier 20ís. Itís 2 prospects than could develop in a yr or 2. It would be worth it since we wonít have a shot at any of the top guys.

  13. #358
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    Quote Originally Posted by CELTICS4LYFE View Post
    Everyone is penciling in Smart to be back next year.....What the back up plan if he bolts?? Everyone going to fall back in love with their favorite trade bait, Rozay? Use the MLE on....tyreke? Draft....Khyri Thomas?? Grayson Allen?
    I think the ideal scenario is sign Smart, trade Morris. If Smart leaves, just keep Morris. Not the same position but close enough. Both are versatile players

    City of Champions

  14. #359
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oakmont_4 View Post
    No I can't. But if Danny is a good GM, and he is, he'll have that conversation with Kyrie this offseason. If a Championship is his #1 goal...Why wouldn't he re-sign. Oh and then there's that money thing where we can offer more than any other team. Is it a guarantee? No. But there's more reasons he will re-sign than he won't.



    I already posted at length about his knee injury. I have zero concerns about that knee in the next 4-5 years.



    Tatum was undoubtedly fantastic this year. But he's 20 years old. This team is a long ways away from following a 20 year old. It's Horfords team, it has been since he arrived. Kyrie came here not to be "the man" but to be apart of a team, not LeBron side kick.



    When you spend 4 years begging for All Stars and then after 30 minutes of having 3 there's discussions at length about dealing all 3...That's fickle. Not endless possibilities. Again, this core hasn't even played a full game together.



    First off, if you're going to consider Greg 'can't move my feet' Monroe as part of your defensive core. You've got problems. I'm likely the only one on this board who feels Smart should be brought back for anything under $18M a year. AB will be back, unless someone's offering him a Bismack Biyombo contract which is highly unlikely.

    Hayward does not play below average defense. He's average to slightly better than. I give him a C+ B- in that area. Kyrie is not a great defender, but he played the best defense in his career under Stevens.

    We can easily bring back any of those players we choose as we currently stand. Those options dwindle when you start messing with the big contracts. So by choosing to deal someone like Kyrie, losing those guys comes with the territory that you're voluntarily going down. If we stand pat, and make small moves, bringing those guys back is rather easy...And a no brainer.
    Remember in the 20th century when Argentina was supposed to be a global economic powerhouse? Their time came and passed. History is mostly about broken dreams and empty promises, which the Celtics aren't exceptions to. Len Bias and Reggie Lewis are good reminders of that.

    What you call "core" is something that could be very short-lived. And thus no core at all. Maybe one year of Irving, two of Horford. IMO, it's not greedy to explore trading an expiring asset. It's greedy to assume that the Celtics have the world by the b@lls, just kick back and watch a 10-13 year run unfold. That everyone wants to play here. I would argue that mentality is the ultimate show of self-indulgence.

    The anti-Lebron crowd dismisses the idea of playing for one year. Based on the current information, isn't that what we're doing now? Even though I agree: it's a no-brainer that he, the player, should re-sign.

    And I've got news for you: the Warriors are a very shrewd organization. Any thoughts of just "waiting them out" is myopic IMO. As if they're gonna just capitulate and watch their dynasty slowly fall. Imagine if they didn't acquire KD? We'd be talking about their window closing now.

    I think the Celtics need to have the same conquest mindset. Because that's what the realities of this league require.
    Last edited by elements1985; 06-11-2018 at 01:05 PM.

  15. #360
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    Quote Originally Posted by elements1985 View Post
    Remember in the 20th century when Argentina was supposed to be a global economic powerhouse? Their time came and passed. History is mostly about broken dreams and empty promises, which the Celtics aren't exceptions to. Len Bias and Reggie Lewis are good reminders of that.
    Well, thankfully, basketball is not a country. Len Bias and Reggie Lewis are reminders of freak occurrences. Which should never be in the equation when projecting because it could happen to anyone. Something like that has as good of a chance as happening to Kyrie as to LeBron. It's a non factor in the equation. Nobody ever said anything is guaranteed. But making big moves guarantees nothing either. Remember when OKC traded for PG13 and Melo...They weren't very good. They were better the previous season when chemistry outperformed the names.

    What you call "core" is something that could be very short-lived. And thus no core at all. Maybe one year of Irving, two of Horford. IMO, it's not greedy to explore trading an expiring asset. It's greedy to assume that the Celtics have the world by the b@lls, just kick back and watch a 10-13 year run unfold. That everyone wants to play here. I would argue that mentality is the ultimate show of self-indulgence.
    I'm not arguing to never make a move again. However, what you're excluding in this discussion is we're in an unprecedented situation where "standing pat" actually means adding 2 All Stars to an ECF squad.

    The anti-Lebron crowd dismisses the idea of playing for one year. Based on the current information, isn't that what we're doing now? Even though I agree: it's a no-brainer that he, the player, should re-sign.
    Yes and no because I don't believe there's any indication he won't sign. I'm not Danny and neither are you so it's impossible to say from our POV. However, I'm sure Danny has an inclination on the matter.

    And I've got news for you: the Warriors are a very shrewd organization. Any thoughts of just "waiting them out" is myopic IMO. As if they're gonna just capitulate and watch their dynasty slowly fall. Imagine if they didn't acquire KD? We'd be talking about their window closing now.
    Yup. The best run organization in the NBA right now. They also didn't trade away their "core". They've added to it.
    I think the Celtics need to have the same conquest mindset. Because that's what the realities of this league require.
    Agreed

    City of Champions

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