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  1. #556
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cubboy View Post
    The guy has never slugged .500 and only once had an OBP over .360.
    The couple extra fly balls caught are nice, but that kind of money should be spent on positions that are thinner or generational corner OFs.

    “The key is to pay for future performance, not past performance”
    He had 25.3 fWAR through his age 25 season. Machado is at 26.3 fWAR through about the same amount of games.

    Heyward had a 121wRC+ in his FA year and a .346 wOBA.

    Heyward sucks now, but this idea that he was never good or never worth the deal he signed it just wrong.

  2. #557
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Agreed. Heyward too. I have no issue complaining about Heyward, but I don't blame the FO. I blame Heyward for how he has played. At the time of the deal, it was a good deal. Since then he's been a disaster.
    I liked Heyward, too, but, I didn't like the overpay. But whatever - it's all gone wrong anyway no matter how much they were or weren't going to pay him.

  3. #558
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seyton View Post
    With respect to Machado vs. Harper: I like Machado's overall results and consistency better than Harper's. I think Machado's WAR is better, too, if I'm not mistaken and he plays terrific defense at a premium position.

    Harper's had, to my mind, only one eye-popping season and a couple of very good, if not abbreviated ones - he's only played more than 140 games twice in six seasons and one of those was only 147. One poor season and a couple of just good seasons. I don't trust his ability to stay on the field and I don't think his past performance when he's been on it warrants the money he's going to get.

    I think you'll get better results from Machado at a position that is harder to fill than Harper's.
    On Harper/Machado:
    Harper has a slightly higher career fWAR. I find Harper to be much more consistent than Machado. Prior to 2018, Machado only had a single season obp > .325 twice. Harper has never been under .340 and is averaging .400+ over the last 4 years.

    Career wRC+:
    Harper - 142
    MM - 119

    Career wOBA:
    Harper - .383
    MM - .349

    Games played
    Harper - 809
    MM - 805

    About half of MM's fWAR comes from defense and FWIW defensive value tends to peak very early in a career and MM rates as a negative defensively at SS thus far. If he's not playing 3b he probably isn't giving you elite defense and if he's playing 3b there's no positional value added because you already have KB. So whether it's Harper or MM he's more of a Heyward replacement than a Russell replacement if you want to take advantage of MM's defensive value. Harper has had negative defensive value, but still more overall value in terms of fWAR. He's a truly elite offensive player. Machado is sometimes.

    On pollock: if they could get him on a 3 year deal, sign me up, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect him and MM. Getting one of them will push them near the $40 mil over the tax number in the next few years. Those two plus Arenado would blow way past $40 mil over the tax. I wouldn't complain, but I can't imagine that's actually possible.

    On FIP/RA9:
    That's a more than reasonable take. I'm not willing to dismiss FIP as you are, but I think it's a fair argument for the merits of bWAR for starting pitchers.

  4. #559
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post
    I loved the Darvish move when it was made. Still love it, but he's def not performing to his ability and certainly not sticking my head in the sand nor plugging my ears screaming "La-La-La-La-La" while bad things are being said about him.

    Darvish should be talked about and debated. He's struggling to make it out of the 5th inning. Nothing wrong with calling a spade, a spade.

    I certainly hope he turns it around, but am not ignoring the results thus far.
    This. So much this. It’s this simple.

  5. #560
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I don't buy that excuse. He was worth the contract he signed when he signed it. The Nats and Cards reportedly offered as much or more than the Cubs did. He's been being coached since he was a kid and the idea that the Cubs in a couple months are responsible for destroying him as a player is silly. Heyward is responsible for Heywards results and he's been awful.

    I'd like to see Theo/Jed quotes saying or implying that Heyward wasn't worth his contract when it was signed but they thought they could fix him and make him better so that he would be worth it. I'm sure they thought they could help him improve, but Heyward, as he was after 2015, was worth the deal he signed at the time.
    https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/ch...w-power-hitter

    Theo and Jed said over and over again that they thought his power stroke was somewhere in there and they were hoping to find it and pull it out of him on a consistent basis.

    They never did...

    It's been spoken on end by several on-air personalities at 670 that the FO overestimated their ability to fix/assist Jason Heyward find that power stroke they thought was hidden within.
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  6. #561
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post
    https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/ch...w-power-hitter

    Theo and Jed said over and over again that they thought his power stroke was somewhere in there and they were hoping to find it and pull it out of him on a consistent basis.

    They never did...

    It's been spoken on end by several on-air personalities at 670 that the FO overestimated their ability to fix/assist Jason Heyward find that power stroke they thought was hidden within.
    Did you read those quotes? Theo made it really clear that Heyward didn't have to improve as a hitter to be worth the contract. They paid him for the player he showed himself to be and they hoped he'd be even better.

    The fact that the Cubs tried to help him get better is not a reasonable excuse for him being a complete failure as a hitter.




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  7. #562
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Did you read those quotes? Theo made it really clear that Heyward didn't have to improve as a hitter to be worth the contract. They paid him for the player he showed himself to be and they hoped he'd be even better.

    The fact that the Cubs tried to help him get better is not a reasonable excuse for him being a complete failure as a hitter.
    So I ask you, has Heyward been worth his contract thus far as a Cub year to year? http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-c...-heyward-7231/

    And again, everyone in the FO thought they could untap some hidden power with Heyward and they didn't. They flubbed on that scouting/analysis/estimation. They were wrong.
    Last edited by Timmmahhh; 05-17-2018 at 02:10 PM.
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  8. #563
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post
    So I ask you, has Heyward been worth his contract thus far as a Cub year to year? http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-c...-heyward-7231/

    And again, everyone in the FO thought they could untap some hidden power with Heyward and they didn't. They flubbed on that scouting/analysis/estimation. They were wrong.
    What do you think?

    Again, the FO did not sign Heyward because they thought they could fix a broken player and make him great. They signed him because at the time of the deal he was worth that contract as he was. They tried to help him become even better. That effort to coach him is not responsible for him being a disaster of a hitter. Heyward is responsible for that.

  9. #564
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    What do you think?

    Again, the FO did not sign Heyward because they thought they could fix a broken player and make him great. They signed him because at the time of the deal he was worth that contract as he was. They tried to help him become even better. That effort to coach him is not responsible for him being a disaster of a hitter. Heyward is responsible for that.
    I asked you first since in the previous post you stated "Theo made it really clear that Heyward didn't have to improve as a hitter to be worth the contract."

    So again, same question, has Heyward been worth his contract thus far as a Cub year to year? http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-c...-heyward-7231/
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  10. #565
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post
    I asked you first since in the previous post you stated "Theo made it really clear that Heyward didn't have to improve as a hitter to be worth the contract."

    So again, same question, has Heyward been worth his contract thus far as a Cub year to year? http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-c...-heyward-7231/
    Didn't have to improve as a hitter from what he was when they signed him. Not from what he is now. Those quotes you provided were from 2015. Theo made it clear Heyward as he was at that time was plenty good enough. They weren't trying to fix him. They were trying to help him get even better. It's a lame excuse to say that Heyward sucks because they coached him for a few months to try to make him better. Heyward was consistently 20-30% better than league average offensively prior to being a Cub. He's been 20-30% worse than league average here.

    Stop asking stupid questions.

  11. #566
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Didn't have to improve as a hitter from what he was when they signed him. Not from what he is now. Those quotes you provided were from 2015. Theo made it clear Heyward as he was at that time was plenty good enough. They weren't trying to fix him. They were trying to help him get even better. It's a lame excuse to say that Heyward sucks because they coached him for a few months to try to make him better. Heyward was consistently 20-30% better than league average offensively prior to being a Cub. He's been 20-30% worse than league average here.

    Stop asking stupid questions.
    LMAO... Remember this all started from you stating something to the effect of Theo and the FO having no fault in the Heyward signing and disagreeing that the FO overestimated their ability to pull this "hidden power" out of Jason Heyward.

    Quite funny how you attempted several times to move the goalposts instead of just simply answering the questions, yes or no and providing backup date.

    Thanks and have a great weekend!
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  12. #567
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    4/13-4/15: Braves (7-5) at Cubs (6-6)

    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post
    LMAO... Remember this all started from you stating something to the effect of Theo and the FO having no fault in the Heyward signing and disagreeing that the FO overestimated their ability to pull this "hidden power" out of Jason Heyward.

    Quite funny how you attempted several times to move the goalposts instead of just simply answering the questions, yes or no and providing backup date.

    Thanks and have a great weekend!
    What goalposts did I move? I am literally repeating myself over and over.

    You hear a narrative on sports radio and think that's proof of something and ask dumb questions. Has Heyward been worth his contract with the Cubs? What do you think? The conversation wasn't about how Heyward has played with the Cubs it was about what he was worth when he signed with the Cubs. Those are different things.

  13. #568
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    What goalposts did I move? I am literally repeating myself over and over.

    You hear a narrative on sports radio and think that's proof of something and ask dumb questions. Has Heyward been worth his contract with the Cubs? What do you think? The conversation wasn't about how Heyward has played with the Cubs it was about what he was worth when he signed with the Cubs. Those are different things.


    Again, not addressing the whole point where this started and doing your typical "Ole" when you can't find any stats or supporting documentation of your original POV.

    You posted Theo and the FO had no blame with the Heyward signing and even quoted Theo saying Heyward was worth the deal EVEN IF Heyward doesn't get any better with the bat.

    Heyward has not gotten better with the bat (that's an understatement) however there is pretty much a consensus that the Heyward deal is a big ol' turd. Theo and the FO have some fault. They aren't infallible. They can make mistakes. This isn't the first bad deal they've done while in Chicago. And when they make mistakes, we can call them out and say they were wrong, even for overestimating their ability to find "hidden power" in Heyward.

    Anyways, done with this and with you.

    Did you at least have a good weekend though?
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  14. #569
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post


    Again, not addressing the whole point where this started and doing your typical "Ole" when you can't find any stats or supporting documentation of your original POV.

    You posted Theo and the FO had no blame with the Heyward signing and even quoted Theo saying Heyward was worth the deal EVEN IF Heyward doesn't get any better with the bat.

    Heyward has not gotten better with the bat (that's an understatement) however there is pretty much a consensus that the Heyward deal is a big ol' turd. Theo and the FO have some fault. They aren't infallible. They can make mistakes. This isn't the first bad deal they've done while in Chicago. And when they make mistakes, we can call them out and say they were wrong, even for overestimating their ability to find "hidden power" in Heyward.

    Anyways, done with this and with you.

    Did you at least have a good weekend though?
    The reason it's a bad deal is because Heyward has sucked. That's Heyward's fault, not the Cub FO's or anyone else's.

    Do you play blackjack? If the dealer shows a 6 and you've got 11, you double down, right? If you lose, do you say you made a mistake by doubling down? No, it wasn't a mistake, it was the correct play. It just didn't work out. That's what has happened here with Heyward and the Cubs.

    We should all want the Cubs' FO to continue to make the correct play, even recognizing that they won't all work out.

  15. #570
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post


    Again, not addressing the whole point where this started and doing your typical "Ole" when you can't find any stats or supporting documentation of your original POV.

    You posted Theo and the FO had no blame with the Heyward signing and even quoted Theo saying Heyward was worth the deal EVEN IF Heyward doesn't get any better with the bat.
    I have no idea what you are talking about. You keep implying that I'm moving goal posts here. Please explain how.

    I said Heyward was worth the contract he signed At THE TIME HE SIGNED IT. The Cards and Nats offered about the same money to him, if not more. He had a track record of providing great value.

    You provided the quotes from Theo. You were trying to make the point that he was not worth the deal but if they could bring out hidden power in Heyward that then he would be. However the quotes that you provided clearly stated the same thing that I'm saying. Yeah, they tried to coach him and help him improve but Heyward, as he was the day he signed, was worth the deal he signed. What happened after that day has no bearing on what he value was on that day.


    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post
    : Heyward has not gotten better with the bat (that's an understatement) however there is pretty much a consensus that the Heyward deal is a big ol' turd. Theo and the FO have some fault. They aren't infallible. They can make mistakes. This isn't the first bad deal they've done while in Chicago. And when they make mistakes, we can call them out and say they were wrong, even for overestimating their ability to find "hidden power" in Heyward.

    Anyways, done with this and with you.

    Did you at least have a good weekend though?
    This is a separate conversation. You are trying to move it from "was Heyward worth the contract WHEN IT WAS SIGNED?" To has he been worth the contract SINCE HE SIGNED?" That is goal post moving. That's not what the conversation was. Of course he hasn't been worth the deal. That's because he has not performed at the same level with the Cubs as he did before he was a Cub. That is not the same thing as saying he wasn't worth it when it was signed.


    Yeah, the weekend was nice.

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