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  1. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    Except nobody said LeBron's superior defense outweighed KD's superior totals. It was just LeBron's defense and efficiency stats were better so he deserves it.

    Nobody even brought the argument up then, and it's not the entire crux of why LeBron should win.

    This whole thing seems like people desperately trying to find a reason to vote LeBron MVP.
    Exactly.

  2. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    Ironic sentiment considering Harden is about to crush LeBron in MVP voting. You are apparently one of the few who can't yet see it.

    As for Harden's team being better than LeBron's this year. Sure. But when has that ever stopped someone from being MVP?

    MVP often goes to the best player on the best team. It's probably been that way 75% of the time. So what exactly is your argument? That although this has been how MVP's are picked since time immemorial, suddenly when it's LeBron losing now it's not a good way to determine MVP?

    I didn't hear a single person say LeBron shouldn't win the award in Miami because he had such a good supporting cast. Now when it's Harden suddenly he can't win it because his team is too good? Sorry, where were people saying that for Shaq? For Magic? For MJ? For Bird? For Curry?


    What is the argument for LeBron? His team hasn't been as good. That's it. Because Harden clearly outplayed him this regular season. He is better in every advanced metric of efficiency.
    So why is it with CP3 out, they are a 15-9 team?

  3. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlashBolt View Post
    So why is it with CP3 out, they are a 15-9 team?
    Because CP3 is a very good player? But consider that even without CP3 the Rocket's 15-9 record extrapolated over 82 games would be 51 wins. So without CP3, Harden still had the Rockets on pace for more wins than the Cavs, in the tougher West no less.

    So you can't even argue LeBron's inferior teammates because even without CP3, Harden is still leading the Rockets to more wins than LeBron led Cleveland.

  4. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    Because your argument was that LeBron James deserves MVP this year because he has the most total points/rebounds/assists/etc. KD did that year, so now other things besides just that matter?

    The argument for LeBron winning it that year was that LeBron had the highest PER, WS/48, BPM, the Heat had the best record in the league, and he finished second in DPOY.

    Harden has 2/3 and LeBron certainly won't finished anywhere near the top for DPOY.

    So by the exact criteria we used for LeBron James in past MVP votes, says Harden should win this year. And now we want to change it because LeBron won't win? Stop trying to find a reason to give it to LeBron.
    Why do you insist on claiming that Durant had more assists than James in 2013? He didn’t. In fact idk if Durant ever had a year with more assist than James.

  5. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    Why do you insist on claiming that Durant had more assists than James in 2013? He didn’t. In fact idk if Durant ever had a year with more assist than James.
    I'm not, I'm saying KD had more combined Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals and Blocks than LeBron in 2013. Not each individually but overall he more of them combined.

  6. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    I'm not, I'm saying KD had more combined Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals and Blocks than LeBron in 2013. Not each individually but overall he more of them combined.
    This sounds like a straw man. Whose making that argument — combined (pts, reb, ast, etc.)? One FGM is worth 2 or 3 pts, so the player with most FG is probably going to win out.

    My argument was that James has had more of an impact on just about each phase of the game (passing, shooting, rebounding, defense) than Harden through the duration of the regular season, and is therefore more “valuable” to his team than Harden. Harden was out, the Rockets go 6-3 w an +80 point differential. The Cavs were 0-8 without James in the lineup last year, on a team that had Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. I doubt this years supporting cast is better. It seem highly unlikely the Cavs would have a winning record without James on the floor this year.

  7. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    This sounds like a straw man. Whose making that argument — combined (pts, reb, ast, etc.)? One FGM is worth 2 or 3 pts, so the player with most FG is probably going to win out.

    My argument was that James has had more of an impact on just about each phase of the game (passing, shooting, rebounding, defense) than Harden through the duration of the regular season, and is therefore more “valuable” to his team than Harden. Harden was out, the Rockets go 6-3 w an +80 point differential. The Cavs were 0-8 without James in the lineup last year, on a team that had Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. I doubt this years supporting cast is better. It seem highly unlikely the Cavs would have a winning record without James on the floor this year.
    It's no more a straw man than the ridiculous argument you've conjured. For instance, your argument is that James had more of an impact scoring the basketball than Harden despite the fact Harden averages more PPG.

    Your entire argument rests on the idea that James has played more games than Harden, OK, well James didn't play 82 games for any of his previous MVPs, so should he have not won those since other players played more games?

    It's a terrible argument. Give me the guy who plays 90% of the time at a higher level over the guy who plays 100% of the time at a lesser level (and before you dispute the lesser level, by every advanced metric of efficiency, Harden was the superior player this season).

  8. #203
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    lmao the basis of the Lebron for MVP is voter pity, and I’m pretty sure that’s not how this whole thing works

  9. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    But discounting all efficiency and rate stats in favor of most points + rebounds + assists etc. doesn't seem like evolution, it's a step back.

    Nobody is going to look back on Harden this year and think it's a bad pick, certainly nobody will say LeBron got robbed.
    Wasn't referring to his specific example. Just the idea that X criteria has never been used before. At one point, advance stats were never used to determine MVP either. Maybe it's not this year, but at some point, people will start using new criteria to determine MVP.

    We all know Harden is going to win at this point. But it's possible some guys voting for Lebron might be judging based on another set of criteria that might end up being the trend going forward.

  10. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    It's no more a straw man than the ridiculous argument you've conjured. For instance, your argument is that James had more of an impact scoring the basketball than Harden despite the fact Harden averages more PPG.

    Your entire argument rests on the idea that James has played more games than Harden, OK, well James didn't play 82 games for any of his previous MVPs, so should he have not won those since other players played more games?

    It's a terrible argument. Give me the guy who plays 90% of the time at a higher level over the guy who plays 100% of the time at a lesser level (and before you dispute the lesser level, by every advanced metric of efficiency, Harden was the superior player this season).
    Harden is the slightly better scorer because of ability to get to the foul line, about four more times per game than James this season, and he knock them down at 86%. But James is the slightly best shooter as evidenced by the TS%, it's not so much about range as it is his ability to get to the basket. James is the better passer and rebounder. Who would disagree with this?

    Now on the defensive end, it always difficult to go by the advanced metrics. The advanced defensive stats are designed to assess team stats. In most defensive metrics if a player doesn't have league leading defensive box stats and plays starter minutes on a poor defensive team, the assumption is that that player must be a poor defender. But that's not always the case. If one player is good, and the other four on the floor are poor, then the effectiveness of the good players gets obscured by the metric. That's why I submitted the individual opponent FG differentials to show that, in James case, he's actually holding opponents to less than their average FG%. It's a detail that completely ignored by all of the defensive advanced stats that I know.

    But if you look at the cumulative stats, and the raw defensive that are produced with the opponent FG differentials, block shots, steals, defensive fouls, it's hard to argue that James -- defending without a rim protector -- isn't the better defender this year.

    All that, and we also have a record of what the Rockets did without Harden this season.

    It's just obvious that James is more valuable to his team and should win MVP.

  11. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    Harden is the slightly better scorer because of ability to get to the foul line, about four more times per game than James this season, and he knock them down at 86%. But James is the slightly best shooter as evidenced by the TS%, it's not so much about range as it is his ability to get to the basket. James is the better passer and rebounder. Who would disagree with this?

    Now on the defensive end, it always difficult to go by the advanced metrics. The advanced defensive stats are designed to assess team stats. In most defensive metrics if a player doesn't have league leading defensive box stats and plays starter minutes on a poor defensive team, the assumption is that that player must be a poor defender. But that's not always the case. If one player is good, and the other four on the floor are poor, then the effectiveness of the good players gets obscured by the metric. That's why I submitted the individual opponent FG differentials to show that, in James case, he's actually holding opponents to less than their average FG%. It's a detail that completely ignored by all of the defensive advanced stats that I know.

    But if you look at the cumulative stats, and the raw defensive that are produced with the opponent FG differentials, block shots, steals, defensive fouls, it's hard to argue that James -- defending without a rim protector -- isn't the better defender this year.

    All that, and we also have a record of what the Rockets did without Harden this season.

    It's just obvious that James is more valuable to his team and should win MVP.
    James is just the wildly more impactful offensive player at this point.

    His Offensive Box Plus/Minus is 9.6. LeBron's is 7.6
    His Offensive Win Shares is 11.6. LeBron's is 11.0
    His points per 100 possessions is 42.3. LeBron's is 36.4.

    That means if each got 100 possessions Harden is scoring 6 more PPG. That is a huge difference. Harden's assists per 100 possessions is 12.2 and LeBron's is 12.1. So Harden actually assists slightly more in the same amount of possessions.

    And the Rocket's record without Harden this year, they went 6-4 when Harden rested. And 59-13 when he played. The difference between a 49 win team and a 68 win team. That's a freaking massive difference.

    You say Cleveland would have a losing record if LeBron were off the team? Well they'd have to be a 31-51 team to match the degree of difference the Rocket's win% was at without Harden.

  12. #207
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    Lmao i love how you use advanced stats to try to prove that Lebron is the better shooter and then don’t reference ANY stats and say he’s a better passer. Go ahead and look at both of their TOV% and AST%....but you only nitpick the stats that suit your argument....

  13. #208
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    Use total numbers instead of averages.
    Discount total numbers summed up together across multiple statlines.
    Just anything that leads to Lebron winning.


    Also, Harden led the league in 3 pointers made and shot the same percentage as Lebron did (.367%). So that's also a lot of misses at the same clip so of course his %s go down.

  14. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    James is just the wildly more impactful offensive player at this point.

    His Offensive Box Plus/Minus is 9.6. LeBron's is 7.6
    His Offensive Win Shares is 11.6. LeBron's is 11.0
    His points per 100 possessions is 42.3. LeBron's is 36.4.

    That means if each got 100 possessions Harden is scoring 6 more PPG. That is a huge difference. Harden's assists per 100 possessions is 12.2 and LeBron's is 12.1. So Harden actually assists slightly more in the same amount of possessions.

    And the Rocket's record without Harden this year, they went 6-4 when Harden rested. And 59-13 when he played. The difference between a 49 win team and a 68 win team. That's a freaking massive difference.

    You say Cleveland would have a losing record if LeBron were off the team? Well they'd have to be a 31-51 team to match the degree of difference the Rocket's win% was at without Harden.
    You can't have an affect on the game if you're not on the floor. James has played almost 500 more minutes this season than Harden -- that's a significant difference. Formula's like points per possession ignore this disparity.

    I like "Offensive" Win Shares more than OBPM, but both stats are weigh teammates performance heavily into the equation. OWS is based on points produced. I prefer to use the Alternate Win Score linear weights on the box stats. It correlates high with wins while isolating individual performance to a larger extent.

    When the Rockets are led by Chris Paul & Harden is out, the Rockets are 6-3 (65% win pct.) +8.8 scoring differential per
    When the Rockets are led by James Harden & Paul is out, the Rockets are 15-8 (66% win pct.) +5.1 scoring differential per

    It's sort of a small sample, but these are the facts and the records. The Rockets last year were a .66 win% team last year. The Rockets without Paul are a 65-66 win% team this year. The Rockets without Harden are a 65-66 win% team this year. The Rockets with Harden minus Paul are a 55 win team just like last year. The Rockets with Paul minus Harden are 55 win team. I'll let you deduce what you can from that.

    The Cavaliers were fortunate to not have to play without James this year. They did last year, and even with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love the Cavs went 0-4, 0-8 altogether. This year, they added some role players right before the deadline. Do the role players equate to Kyrie? Because even if they do, the Cavs were winless without James.

    It's so obvious that James is the more valuable player.

  15. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    You can't have an affect on the game if you're not on the floor. James has played almost 500 more minutes this season than Harden -- that's a significant difference. Formula's like points per possession ignore this disparity.

    I like "Offensive" Win Shares more than OBPM, but both stats are weigh teammates performance heavily into the equation. OWS is based on points produced. I prefer to use the Alternate Win Score linear weights on the box stats. It correlates high with wins while isolating individual performance to a larger extent.

    When the Rockets are led by Chris Paul & Harden is out, the Rockets are 6-3 (65% win pct.) +8.8 scoring differential per
    When the Rockets are led by James Harden & Paul is out, the Rockets are 15-8 (66% win pct.) +5.1 scoring differential per

    It's sort of a small sample, but these are the facts and the records. The Rockets last year were a .66 win% team last year. The Rockets without Paul are a 65-66 win% team this year. The Rockets without Harden are a 65-66 win% team this year. The Rockets with Harden minus Paul are a 55 win team just like last year. The Rockets with Paul minus Harden are 55 win team. I'll let you deduce what you can from that.

    The Cavaliers were fortunate to not have to play without James this year. They did last year, and even with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love the Cavs went 0-4, 0-8 altogether. This year, they added some role players right before the deadline. Do the role players equate to Kyrie? Because even if they do, the Cavs were winless without James.

    It's so obvious that James is the more valuable player.
    That demonstrates exactly what I said: The Rockets without CP3 would still have had a better record this season than the Cavs. So when you bring up Harden's awesome teammates, you do realize when you take out the other All-NBA caliber player he still leads the Rockets to a better record than LeBron has the Cavs?

    So in 500 more minutes LeBron couldn't even get his Cavs to win as many games as Harden could with the Rockets without CP3 (like last year)? What is so MVP about that?

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