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  1. #1
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    The Obvious Case For LeBron James (2017-18 MVP)

    According to reports I've followed from the sportswriters serving as potential voters on the 2017-18 MVP award, it appears it's down to two players -- James Harden and LeBron James.

    Harden is the overwhelming favorite due to the advantage he holds with his teams success, the Rockets currently own the top record in the NBA and are projected for 66 wins. James' team is currently ranked 4th the Eastern Conference, projected to win 51 games.

    Last year, Russell Westbrook won the MVP by 135 points over 2nd Place James Harden. Westbrook's Thunder were a 6th seed in the Western Conference, winning just 47 games.

    The Offensive comparison

    James
    (proj.)
    Total pts = 2271
    Total ast = 752
    Total off reb = 99
    Total tov = 349
    TS% = .621

    Harden
    (proj.)
    Total pts = 2229
    Total ast = 636
    Total off reb = 41
    Total tov = 318
    TS% = .620

    Westbrook
    (2017)
    Total pts = 2558
    Total ast = 840
    Total off reb = 137
    Total tov = 438
    TS% = .554

    2017 Westbrook has the higher volume of production, but is clearly the most inefficient of the bunch. Yet, Westbrook finished last season with nearly 70% of all first place votes. Harden finished with 47 less first place votes than Westbrook last season with numbers that are overall similar to this year's campaign. One difference, the Rockets acquired Chris Paul, and are on pace to win 11 more games than last year. The Rockets are 15-8 without Paul this season (65%). In other words, the Rockets are basically the same team they were last year (55-27, .67 win%) without Paul in the lineup. Paul, in nearly 60 games this season is clearly explains the 10 or 11 win improvement for the Rockets.

    James and the Cavs lost Kyrie Irving in the 2017 offseason. The Cavs are currently on pace for the exact same record as last year. The one constant, is that James has elevated his play to compensate for the absence of the All Star Point Guard.

    Like Harden, James' most effective teammate, Kevin Love missed over 20 games. The Cavs went 13-9, unlike the Rockets minus Paul, showed no drop-off, with James again picking up the slack in his absence. The Cavs have had 18 different starters this year, James and JR Smith the only players to start at least 60 games. JR Smith has been a liability for the Cavs, whereas Capela and Ariza -- the 2nd and 3rd most consistent Rockets' starters -- have made positive contributions for the Rockets, especially on the defensive end.

    The Defensive Comparison

    Critics have come out in full force against James' defense this year, some in same breath praising Harden on that end of the floor for the first time in his career. The Cavs have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. But it's important to point out that most leading defensive metrics such DPM or Defensive Rating, don't have way to isolate individual defensive performance apart from team defense. For example, having a solid rim protector can cover a lot of flaws in perimeter defenders if you just take in the advanced stats.

    The Cavs have been awful defensively, 2nd to last in team Defensive Rating. But that doesn't necessarily translate into LeBron being terrible. LeBron is far in away the Cavs best shot blocker (71), the next closest is Jeff Green (32). James is arguably the Cavs best perimeter defender as well, George Hill and Cedi Osman honorable mention. The average offensive player that LeBron guards shoots .459 from the field against the rest of the league, when James guards them, he holds them to .446, 1.3% below their league average. In Harden's case the average player he defends shoots .458 from the field regularly, when Harden defends them they shoot slightly higher at .461 from the field. Harden also has 142 defensive fouls in 460 less minutes than James (including 20 more shooting fouls) -- James has committed only 100 defensive fouls in a league leading 2977 minutes played.

    Harden plays with a bonafide shot blocker in Clint Capela. Meanwhile Eric Gordon is easily the perimeter defender on the Rockets this season. But NeNe, Mbah a Moute, along with Capela and Gordon have more so than Harden helped the Rockets to top defensive Team this year. Ariza, Tucker, and Paul although inconsistent, have arguably been better than anyone playing the majority of the 2017-18 season on the Cavs roster not named LeBron James. The Rockets currently have no players playing as poor defensively as Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and Rodney Hood.

    In short, the Rockets have stout defensive players that help provide the content for the defensive metrics like Defensive Rating and Defensive Win Shares which inflate Harden effectiveness on the defensive side of the ball. When we attempt to contextualize base on team personnel and isolate each players defensive performance through the player tracking data it appears to show James having regressed from an elite defender to slightly above average, and Harden slightly below average.


    So James has had the most offensive impact, both through total minutes on the court and offensive efficiency. James is also the better defensive player. And with Westbrook setting what may be a new precedent last year, winning the MVP while playing on a 6th seed, let's see if the sportwriter's -- armed with more advanced stats in the last four years than all of prior NBA History -- will actually select the league's most valuable player for the MVP award.
    Last edited by Lionel20; 04-08-2018 at 11:58 PM.

  2. #2
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    he should be the mvp... without reading this I 100 percent agree.

  3. #3
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    23,697
    I'm going to go against the grain and ask simply this - why in the hell should we vote MVP for a guy who looked like he'd packed it in for a span of about 4 weeks before the trade deadline. And I say this as an avid James supporter in general but he looked completely apathetic for a decent chunk of the year and that's not adding value that's for sure.

    Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  4. #4
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    1,577
    Quote Originally Posted by Jamiecballer View Post
    I'm going to go against the grain and ask simply this - why in the hell should we vote MVP for a guy who looked like he'd packed it in for a span of about 4 weeks before the trade deadline. And I say this as an avid James supporter in general but he looked completely apathetic for a decent chunk of the year and that's not adding value that's for sure.

    Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk
    If he ďpacked it inĒ by averaging 27/8/9 54% shooting, the rest of the league did so too.

  5. #5
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    Apr 2018
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    34
    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    According to reports I've followed from the sportswriters serving as potential voters on the 2017-18 MVP award, it appears it's down to two players -- James Harden and LeBron James.

    Harden is the overwhelming favorite due to the advantage he holds with his teams success, the Rockets currently own the top record in the NBA and are projected for 66 wins. James' team is currently ranked 4th the Eastern Conference, projected to win 51 games.

    Last year, Russell Westbrook won the MVP by 135 points over 2nd Place James Harden. Westbrook's Thunder were a 6th seed in the Western Conference, winning just 47 games.

    The Offensive comparison

    James
    (proj.)
    Total pts = 2271
    Total ast = 752
    Total off reb = 99
    Total tov = 349
    TS% = .621

    Harden
    (proj.)
    Total pts = 2229
    Total ast = 636
    Total off reb = 41
    Total tov = 318
    TS% = .620

    Westbrook
    (2017)
    Total pts = 2558
    Total ast = 840
    Total off reb = 137
    Total tov = 438
    TS% = .554

    2017 Westbrook has the higher volume of production, but is clearly the most inefficient of the bunch. Yet, Westbrook finished last season with nearly 70% of all first place votes. Harden finished with 47 less first place votes than Westbrook last season with numbers that are overall similar to this year's campaign. One difference, the Rockets acquired Chris Paul, and are on pace to win 11 more games than last year. The Rockets are 15-8 without Paul this season (65%). In other words, the Rockets are basically the same team they were last year (55-27, .67 win%) without Paul in the lineup. Paul, in nearly 60 games this season is clearly explains the 10 or 11 win improvement for the Rockets.

    James and the Cavs lost Kyrie Irving in the 2017 offseason. The Cavs are currently on pace for the exact same record as last year. The one constant, is that James has elevated his play to compensate for the absence of the All Star Point Guard.

    Like Harden, James' most effective teammate, Kevin Love missed over 20 games. The Cavs went 13-9, unlike the Rockets minus Paul, showed no drop-off, with James again picking up the slack in his absence. The Cavs have had 18 different starters this year, James and JR Smith the only players to start at least 60 games. JR Smith has been a liability for the Cavs, whereas Capela and Ariza -- the 2nd and 3rd most consistent Rockets' starters -- have made positive contributions for the Rockets, especially on the defensive end.

    The Defensive Comparison

    Critics have come out in full force against James' defense this year, some in same breath praising Harden on that end of the floor for the first time in his career. The Cavs have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. But it's important to point out that most leading defensive metrics such DPM or Defensive Rating, don't have way to isolate individual defensive performance apart from team defense. For example, having a solid rim protector can cover a lot of flaws in perimeter defenders if you just take in the advanced stats.

    The Cavs have been awful defensively, 2nd to last in team Defensive Rating. But that doesn't necessarily translate into LeBron being terrible. LeBron is far in away the Cavs best shot blocker (71), the next closest is Jeff Green (32). James is arguably the Cavs best perimeter defender as well, George Hill and Cedi Osman honorable mention. The average offensive player that LeBron guards shoots .459 from the field against the rest of the league, when James guards them, he holds them to .446, 1.3% below their league average. In Harden's case the average player he defends shoots .458 from the field regularly, when Harden defends them they shoot slightly higher at .461 from the field. Harden also has 142 defensive fouls in 460 less minutes than James (including 20 more shooting fouls) -- James has committed only 100 defensive fouls in a league leading 2977 minutes played.

    Harden plays with a bonafide shot blocker in Clint Capela. Meanwhile Eric Gordon is easily the perimeter defender on the Rockets this season. But NeNe, Mbah a Moute, along with Capela and Gordon have more so than Harden helped the Rockets to top defensive Team this year. Ariza, Tucker, and Paul although inconsistent, have arguably been better than anyone playing the majority of the 2017-18 season on the Cavs roster not named LeBron James. The Rockets currently have no players playing as poor defensively as Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and Rodney Hood.

    In short, the Rockets have stout defensive players that help provide the content for the defensive metrics like Defensive Rating and Defensive Win Shares which inflate Harden effectiveness on the defensive side of the ball. When we attempt to contextualize base on team personnel and isolate each players defensive performance through the player tracking data it appears to show James having regressed from an elite defender to slightly above average, and Harden slightly below average.


    So James has had the most offensive impact, both through total minutes on the court and offensive efficiency. James is also the better defensive player. And with Westbrook setting what may be a new precedent last year, winning the MVP while playing on a 6th seed, let's see if the sportwriter's -- armed with more advanced stats in the last four years than all of prior NBA History -- will actually select the league's most valuable player for the MVP award.
    Clint Capela?

    Same height and 5 lbs. lighter than a young Horace Grant... thatís what passes for a legit shot blocker now huh?

    I remember when it was Hakeem, David Robinson, Patrick Ewing and Dike...

    Now itís joakim Noah and Clint capela lol

  6. #6
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    Apr 2017
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    1,458
    The Cavs might not even win 50 games in the weak east.


    /thread

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaVar Ball View Post
    The Cavs might not even win 50 games in the weak east.


    /thread
    well holy **** i guess by this logic Ben ****ing simmons is the mvp? I mean the sixers are about to win 24 more games than last year where is the rockets are only likely going to be plus what 10 in that area while adding a CP3


    Lebron lost kyrie and love for a ton of time and might actually finish with as many wins as last year.
    Last edited by More-Than-Most; 04-09-2018 at 02:05 AM.

  8. #8
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    Apr 2008
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    Turkey
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    LBJ is having a great year but people should ease on this MVP thing. It is Harden this year. We all know team success is the first thing to look at this thing barring a historical TD season.

    I've become a huge LBJ fan late in his carrier but some people look like they'll vote for LBJ on anything without looking at the concept or context.

  9. #9
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    Dec 2010
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    Paradise
    Posts
    15,151
    I love LBJ, but he doesnít deserve MVP this season. Jamiecballer is 100% correct on this front.....he very clearly mailed it for a month and a half when things were looking gloomy pre-trade deadline. It was an embarrassing display of leadership. I am no James Harden/Rockets fan......but the MVP is a regular season award and Iíd rather it go to the guy who gives it their all when they step out on the floor through ups and downs. Relative to ĎBron, thatís Harden this year.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by boilermakerd View Post
    clint capela?

    Same height and 5 lbs. Lighter than a young horace grant... Thatís what passes for a legit shot blocker now huh?

    I remember when it was hakeem, david robinson, patrick ewing and dike...

    Now itís joakim noah and clint capela lol
    Haha

  11. #11
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    Apr 2010
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    13,700
    It's easily Harden
    Donít forget to smile today, theyíre contagious!!!


  12. #12
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    That was a very convoluted way of saying James played more minutes than Harden. What's hilarious is you fancy yourself as a stat guy, and this is what you came up with.
    Last edited by tredigs; 04-09-2018 at 11:29 AM. Reason: Otto kerekt

  13. #13
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    27,082
    LeBron was as efficient as Harden as a scorer (both around 62% TS%) AND played in 9 more games. I'm definitely on board with giving it to LeBron.


    Kristaps Porzingis
    Stronger than most 15 year old girls.

  14. #14
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    Why not? Any time this guy loses a game it is 100% on his teammates.
    Rep Power: 0




    Quote Originally Posted by Raps08-09 Champ View Post
    My dick is named 'Ewing'.

  15. #15
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    I Love this thread, I'm not on here daily...too busy for that, but I check in on this forum every couple days to see all the discussion and topics or up...This one grabs my attention as I think LeBron should definitely be in consideration for mvp, Everyone had been saying Harden was the only one that really had a shot at mvp for months, I've thought LeBron should be considered having a outside shot the whole time. Unfortunately LeBron had a team that was not worth a crap that he carried all year long, and now he has even elevated his play even further to give them one of the better records the last few weeks with not the best supporting cast at all outside of love coming back the team still dosent have any elite starters just roll player's....Glad to see him get some recognition finally, I would give him the Nov over Harden even though it's close...im not a LeBron fan, but he's the league mvp jmo, love this discussion, and look forward to reading everyone's view and opinions in the coming days/week!

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