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  1. #256
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I mean, Millerís obp is 25 points higher and is slugging 50 points better, so thereís a real difference offensively. And Villar is still a below average defender, so the defensive gap, if there even is one, isnít huge in my eyes.

    Plus you want to see what Miller can do with some consistent playing time to see what you need for a rental to see if the guys available will actually provide a meaningful upgrade.
    Do the Brewers even need a rental? COmpared to SS and C, 2B isn't that close to those issues. Don't nec. need a catcher to be great offensively but Pina been bad. Kratz had his two week stretch. I can see Miller getting a few starts I week but I'd rather play Villar. Villar has actually been pretty good. He's hitting .265. He's shown signs of being better. He will probably steal over 20 bags. Hit 15 HRs perhaps with some more ABs. Villar has a .312 OBP which isn't great but he's not playing bad. Don't think he needed replacing really and like him leading off. I think it just gives him confidence. Like him more than ET there, but wow did he put one into orbit today.

    On a side note, I almost fell out of my chair as Hernan walked twice today and three times in series vs. Braves plus two 3-run HRs lol. 1/3 of Perez's walks, now at 9, came in this series vs. ATL. Can tell he is locked in not swinging at that slider that ends up way out of zone. Perez OBP is now over ,.280 lol. He was big this series. Anyone else pretty much not even expecting a hot 2-week stretch for Braun this year?

  2. #257
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    I donít love thames at the top, but heís a significantly better option than villar there and itís not even close. If you extrapolate their current numbers over the course of a full season, the difference between villar and thames is that thames will get on base 25 more times than villar and will account for 120 more total bases than villar.

    The only real argument for batting villar leadoff over thames is that he seems like a typical leadoff hitter. But in reality, villar is a below average run creator as a whole and thames is well above average in rum creation. Heck, Iím weighted runs created, villar has created 2 more runs than thames on the season. Villar has 263 at bats compared to thames 162. So there really shouldnít be an argument there.

    And Iím not writing Braun completely off yet. His peripherals really arenít that bad. His soft hit rate has been creeping up for a couple years, but his hard hit rate is still high. In fact, his hard hit rate is right in line with his career average. His directional hitting and grounder/liner/fly ball rates are all in his career norms as well. He is pulling the ball a bit more, but nothing crazy. He is striking out more and walking less, so expecting the old Ryan Braun is unwise. But he shouldnít be as bad as heís been. His really low babip suggests heís due for some liners to drop in and probably due for some schtoinkers to start falling in too.

  3. #258
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I donít love thames at the top, but heís a significantly better option than villar there and itís not even close. If you extrapolate their current numbers over the course of a full season, the difference between villar and thames is that thames will get on base 25 more times than villar and will account for 120 more total bases than villar.

    The only real argument for batting villar leadoff over thames is that he seems like a typical leadoff hitter. But in reality, villar is a below average run creator as a whole and thames is well above average in rum creation. Heck, Iím weighted runs created, villar has created 2 more runs than thames on the season. Villar has 263 at bats compared to thames 162. So there really shouldnít be an argument there.

    And Iím not writing Braun completely off yet. His peripherals really arenít that bad. His soft hit rate has been creeping up for a couple years, but his hard hit rate is still high. In fact, his hard hit rate is right in line with his career average. His directional hitting and grounder/liner/fly ball rates are all in his career norms as well. He is pulling the ball a bit more, but nothing crazy. He is striking out more and walking less, so expecting the old Ryan Braun is unwise. But he shouldnít be as bad as heís been. His really low babip suggests heís due for some liners to drop in and probably due for some schtoinkers to start falling in too.
    Yeah I just would have thought Braun's average and numbers would be a little more solid. If he can get to .270 and 20-25 HRs I will be happy.

    For me I would like Thames to get in more run producer spots. The bottom of the order has been so bad lol. I think Thames at like 6, if he can run into some homers would hit some multi-run homers which can be game-changers in as many close games as Brewers have played. I probably agree that Thames is better but I think Villar batting leadoff will inspi confidence in him. Could be off base, but I think he's only hit leadoff twice and has multi-hit games in both. That could be a complete coincidence too. I liked the lineup yesterday. I hope Brewers play Nottingham. Kratz is awful. He had maybe the best two-week stretch of his career upon joining team, like Sogard last year. I say give Nottingham a shot half the time.

  4. #259
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    I feel like we had this same discussion about moving yellich down. So thames drives in more runs hitting 6th, but yellich, Cain, Aguilar and Shaw drive in less because villar will be on base less than thames most likely. So even if those runs offset, youíre still getting the inferior player more at bats since the leadoff hitter gets quite a few more at bats than the 6th hitter over the course of the season. Just doesnít make sense to me. You want to get your best hitters as many at bats as possible.

    And if you look at Villars career numbers, everything prior to his breakout year looked pretty similar to the player he is now. His breakout year had career highs for everything, including average, obp, slugging and all of that. If you take out his 50 game season in his last year at Houston, those career numbers are significantly better than anything he had. Itís more and more likely that year was the outlier. Villar seems to be settling in at about the player he is now, which as a total package, isnít that great.

  5. #260
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    You guys, it's starting to feel like the Brewers will acquire Machado.

    I'm kinda at the point of going "**** it, just give me Machado already"

  6. #261
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I feel like we had this same discussion about moving yellich down. So thames drives in more runs hitting 6th, but yellich, Cain, Aguilar and Shaw drive in less because villar will be on base less than thames most likely. So even if those runs offset, youíre still getting the inferior player more at bats since the leadoff hitter gets quite a few more at bats than the 6th hitter over the course of the season. Just doesnít make sense to me. You want to get your best hitters as many at bats as possible.

    And if you look at Villars career numbers, everything prior to his breakout year looked pretty similar to the player he is now. His breakout year had career highs for everything, including average, obp, slugging and all of that. If you take out his 50 game season in his last year at Houston, those career numbers are significantly better than anything he had. Itís more and more likely that year was the outlier. Villar seems to be settling in at about the player he is now, which as a total package, isnít that great.
    Thames is a nice option because he can hit in so many spots. I like Cain leading off more than anyone. But I like him at 3 also with Braun out. Villar-Cain-Yelich (can flip them 2-3)-Aguilar-Shaw-Thames-Saladino-Kratz/NOttingham works for me. I think Villar has shown enough this year to give him a chance at the top of the order. As I said I think it helps his confidence. Hard for him not to try and do to much when he's getting two hits and sitting. Miller will get some time, but I think Villar deserves more. With Miller in I have no issues leading off. I don't really like Villar in a run-producing spot at 6. I didn't say it was a must but that's what I would do. Also, Villar wouldn't have that long of a leash. He struggles for a couple weeks can put Thames back at 1 or Cain.

  7. #262
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    I guess I donít get how heís shown he deserves more playing time. He hit .227 with a .256 obp in June. Sure heís been ďhotĒ in July over 16 at bats, but given his June, you canít really say heís earned time. Unless two games is enough to show youíre good.

    I really donít get why the sudden obsession with villar. Heís largely been average at best at the plate. Heís had over 2000 plate appearances in his major league career. In one season, he got just under 700 PA and was about 20% better than league average. In the other over 1300 PAs, heís consistently been about 20% below league average. And heís nearly a year and a half removed from the breakout year. To me itís incredibly likely heís already had his career best year and is unlikely to return to that level. And heís really shown nothing over a full month sample size to indicate he can do that.

    Miller has been better throughout his career. Villars best year is better, but his worst years are comfrtoably worse as well. Miller has been pretty consistently around 10% above or below league average and is almost exactly league average for his career in a similar number of at bats as villar. And Miller doesnít have a big outlier year like villar. Iíd take Miller over villar for the rest of the year if youre making me choose right now. But either way, neither one should be in the top 5 of the order when everyone is healthy.

  8. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I guess I donít get how heís shown he deserves more playing time. He hit .227 with a .256 obp in June. Sure heís been ďhotĒ in July over 16 at bats, but given his June, you canít really say heís earned time. Unless two games is enough to show youíre good.

    I really donít get why the sudden obsession with villar. Heís largely been average at best at the plate. Heís had over 2000 plate appearances in his major league career. In one season, he got just under 700 PA and was about 20% better than league average. In the other over 1300 PAs, heís consistently been about 20% below league average. And heís nearly a year and a half removed from the breakout year. To me itís incredibly likely heís already had his career best year and is unlikely to return to that level. And heís really shown nothing over a full month sample size to indicate he can do that.

    Miller has been better throughout his career. Villars best year is better, but his worst years are comfrtoably worse as well. Miller has been pretty consistently around 10% above or below league average and is almost exactly league average for his career in a similar number of at bats as villar. And Miller doesnít have a big outlier year like villar. Iíd take Miller over villar for the rest of the year if youre making me choose right now. But either way, neither one should be in the top 5 of the order when everyone is healthy.
    I think it's less I like Villar and more I don't think Miller is that great. Also it was posed as more of a ? It just seems Villar has to do more to get PT than say Perez who has has a couple good games or Sogard getting such a long look. I asked if you think CC isn't a fan or what. I mean to try Franklin and Sogard? I don't think Villar's been that bad that's all. If a move is made for lets just say Machado having Saladino for defense would be great. Miller is awful defensively. Don't care what metrics say as far as similar to Villar or not. Doesn't seem like that as far as eye test.

    Also the main reason I like Thames lower in order was in situation like tonight. Rather have Thames up if Aguilar doesn't come through - been rare - than Miller or Villar in the 10th. THe bottom of the order has been anemic and Thames as a leadoff won't get many chances with RISP which is I think why Cain is batting lower. I agree Villar isn't the best option on paper. But I think that confidence is high when he hits atop order and most times for Brewers it seems no one is on for leadoff hitter anyway lol. I hope Crew can win the next few games vs. Marlins and win 3 of 5 in Pitt. The schedule after the AS break is brutal for the Crew to end July/beginning of August.

  9. #264
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    But to that same point, if you take thames off of the leadoff spot, you donít score the first run last night, because thames basically created that run.

    According to fangraphs research, the 6th hitter has about .5 times per game. So basically youíd be robbing a superior hitter a plate appearance every other day. Thatís adds up over the course of a season. Iíll never support giving inferior players more at bats due to some logic that the bottom of the order might come up in more clutch situations. And even that logic is flawed, because by putting a guy whoís more likely to make an out at the top, you entirely change who gets up in each inning.

    The best way to score runs is to cluster hits. The best way to cluster hits is to cluster your best hitters. And the best way to score the most possible runs is to cluster those hitters at the top to get the group as many at bats as possible. I just canít support any logic that intentionally limits the at bats of your better hitters while increasing the at bats of an inferior one.

  10. #265
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    I think Villar hits well out of the leadoff position. I see your point. But with this Brewers team or at least as it has proven this season, the bottom of the order doesn't get on base. So, I would rather have a guy up in 2 of 4 ABs in clutch spots or with guys on then nobody on in 4 of 5 ABs. The problem is the Brewers 6-8 hitters have been bad. Brad Miller, Hernan Perez etc. hitting 5 or 6 in RBI spots isn't doing it for me. Cain is hitting well with RISP and has like 26 RBI out of the leadoff spot. I like Cain 2, Yelich 3 with Braun out of the lineup. With Miller in I agree I probably lead off Thames, but I think Villar has shown enough to lead off to get Thames ABs with guys on base with Braun out. That cluster of Cain, Yelich, Aguilar, Shaw, Thames 2-6 sounds good to me. Thames would have more chances to run into homers with multiple runners on. I get saying it might cost him an AB I just think with that 2-5 order, he would get a ton of chances for impact ABs.

  11. #266
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    Then why not leave the lineup the way it is and slide all those guys up to the top. If you want thames hitting behind Cain, yellich, Aguilar and Shaw, then why leadoff villar? If thereís a drop off in the order, a good hitter will always hit in front of it. If we did what you suggested, then weíd be having the same conversation about Cain. He wouldnít have as many runners on in front of him, so weíd talk about moving him to a better run products spot. And weíd also talk about how the hitter behind thames stinks and thames keeps getting stranded.

    We have 5 good hitters in the lineup most nights. Someone is going to have to be first in that group and someone will have to be last. The guy whoís first will always have fewer runners on base than the rest of the group and the guy who hits last will always get stranded the most, regardless of whether they hit 1-5 or 2-6. So at the end of the day, maximizing their at bats will maximize your offense.

  12. #267
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Then why not leave the lineup the way it is and slide all those guys up to the top. If you want thames hitting behind Cain, yellich, Aguilar and Shaw, then why leadoff villar? If thereís a drop off in the order, a good hitter will always hit in front of it. If we did what you suggested, then weíd be having the same conversation about Cain. He wouldnít have as many runners on in front of him, so weíd talk about moving him to a better run products spot. And weíd also talk about how the hitter behind thames stinks and thames keeps getting stranded.

    We have 5 good hitters in the lineup most nights. Someone is going to have to be first in that group and someone will have to be last. The guy whoís first will always have fewer runners on base than the rest of the group and the guy who hits last will always get stranded the most, regardless of whether they hit 1-5 or 2-6. So at the end of the day, maximizing their at bats will maximize your offense.
    Because I think Villar will get on enough to give Thames chances. Also my reasoning is pretty much 6-8 is easy outs. Hardly get on. What were they tonight? 1 for 12? OK, so not many shots for leadoff guy to have RBI chances. Why not have Villar hit there? He can get on steal second. And if we rather have Thames up with guys on base than Villar? Not like he's inept. Cain has been great out of leadoff spot and has 26 RBIs with hitting 3 sometimes also. So, Villar leads off for me when he plays and Miller 6 or 7 and Thames lead off when he plays although with Cain out idk...probably would have played Villar since rest day for him. So, Villar-Cain-Yelich-Aguilar-Shaw-Thames-Saladino-Nottingham seems like decent lineup. Kratz should ride the pine. He had his two weeks of solid hitting. If say Brewers can trade for a good bat even say not Machado but a Ramos to catch, I put him at 6 and Thames lead off. Villar 7.
    -

    Lets just agree to disagree...I like the back-and-forth but I have two other questions that I'd be interested in your POV. Braun comes back...team at full strength, how much is he playing in 2H? I play Thames over him most games. Play Braun vs. lefties. Can be defensive guy late in games with lead. But I think Thames more valuable right now.

  13. #268
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    How about that debut by Burnes? A save. That's damn rare in a debut. Odd time in today's day for a debut but cool to see way he handled it.

  14. #269
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    Yea, weíll just have to disagree. I look at Villars .315 obp and to me that is inept, especially for a guy who isnít hitting for power. And the stolen bases donít do much for me, since his slugging is so low, heís basically a singles guy. Thames slugs really highly, so even if villar steals 15 more bags than thames, thames will still be on base more and more likely to be on 2nd or 3rd base anyways. And you said 6-8 are easy outs. You arenít really changing the players who are on the team, so 1, 7 and 8 are now easy outs. Still doesnít make sense to me.

    And I agree on Braun. When heís back, he should start off as part of a platoon with thames vs lefties, and he can get a few starts on days Aguilar takes off and thames goes to first or when Cain or yellich need a day off. So thereís still a decent amount of at bats left over.

    But these things tend to work themselves out. The odds of thames, Aguilar, yellich and Cain all staying healthy and productive is probably pretty slim. Iím sure braun finds a way back in the lineup at some point.

  15. #270
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Yea, weíll just have to disagree. I look at Villars .315 obp and to me that is inept, especially for a guy who isnít hitting for power. And the stolen bases donít do much for me, since his slugging is so low, heís basically a singles guy. Thames slugs really highly, so even if villar steals 15 more bags than thames, thames will still be on base more and more likely to be on 2nd or 3rd base anyways. And you said 6-8 are easy outs. You arenít really changing the players who are on the team, so 1, 7 and 8 are now easy outs. Still doesnít make sense to me.

    And I agree on Braun. When heís back, he should start off as part of a platoon with thames vs lefties, and he can get a few starts on days Aguilar takes off and thames goes to first or when Cain or yellich need a day off. So thereís still a decent amount of at bats left over.

    But these things tend to work themselves out. The odds of thames, Aguilar, yellich and Cain all staying healthy and productive is probably pretty slim. Iím sure braun finds a way back in the lineup at some point.
    Thames only has 5 doubles. 14 homers. When he hits it in the air and it's a hit it's gone basically lol. So that's why I want him up with guys on. He won't get that leading off. I get the concerns with Villar Obp, but then how do you feel about guys like Perez, Saladino etc. hitting 5? To me I'd rather have someone with thump at 5, 6. Idk maybe I am a bit old school in my thinking but idk. This team needs a bat if those guys are middle of the order guys and you're going to lead Thames off IMO. Get a Ramos or someone to hit 6. Brad Miller and HP and those guys are more 7-hitters than top or middle of the order types.

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