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  1. #211
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    We wouldnít get any draft compensation for machado. You have to have the guy from the beginning of the season to offer them the QO, which is what nets you compensation. Iím okay with it in theory, but that prospect package isnít going to do it. The guy is a stud and is having a very good year. Someone will pay big for him, and it most likely will be a team who thinks they can resign him.

    Thereís a good chance they ask for hiura. And if itís gonna cost hiura, then Iíd rather go all in on a guy like degrom and really push forward for 2.5 years instead of just half a season.

  2. #212
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    I honestly don't think it would take Burnes or Huira to get Machado. Darvish and Martinez both had pretty underwhelming returns last year. Not sure the Brewers will be players for Machado though.

    I'd much rather go after Eduardo Escobar of the Twins if they decide the sell. He can play passable defense at SS/3b and probably LF/2b, he's crushing the ball this year, he's a switch hitter, and will cost much less than Machado. He's a free agent to be, Twins won't give him a QO, and they suck so they should be sellers.

    (I'm going to keep banging the Eduardo Escobar drum until he's traded or the Twins make a huge run and get within a couple games of first place)

  3. #213
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    Darvish had a plus 4 era and his k and walk numbers were both trending in the wrong direction. Machado has already accumulated more WAR than Martinez when he was traded, plus he has the ability to play two premium defensive positions. Martinez was strictly OF, so his market was shrunk. Rentals have not been expensive lately, but machado is head and shoulders above any recent rental in terms of talent. Heís gonna be expensive.

    And Iím not sure how I feel about Escobar. I donít hate the idea, but youíre paying for his numbers so far in the first half and itís probably somewhat unlikely he delivers those numbers. He has 2 seasons of 101 wRC+ to his name prior to this year and every other year was below 100, sometimes significantly. Heís never been more than a league average hitter at best. And this year, at 29, he breaks out. He has a high than normal for him babip, which suggests regression. Maybe heís figured something out, as his hard hit rate has bumped up some, but heís also striking out more than ever and has a similar spray chart to past seasons.

    Escobar feels to me like a situation where you pay for the breakout but get the regression and bad luck. Now, heís likely wonít be super expensive, because teams will have the same thought that I just said. But if he regresses back to last yearís numbers, or worse yet, the year prior numbers for the 2nd half, he really isnít much better, if at all better, than a Hernan Perez type of player. And I think there should be legit fear thatís what he drops back down to.
    Last edited by crewfan13; 06-26-2018 at 11:12 PM.

  4. #214
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    Hey, there's always a risk when you acquire a guy that he won't perform. Escobar's approach started to change last year and it seems he's really capitalizing on those changes this year. Manny Machado had only a 102 wRC+ last year. He's only at a 99 wRC+ for June. There's no guarantee with anyone.

    If it's me running this team, I think I target Escobar + Wilson Ramos. I can probably get those 2 players for less than Machado.

    https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/06/13/ed...ch-angle-stats This is a good in depth look at what Escobar is doing this year.

  5. #215
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    Anyway, that game tonight was fun. Freddy was great once again. Home runs are cool too. All in about 2 hr 45min.

    There is probably no point in even talking about it because as we've seen things just work themselves out, but with Davies and Miley coming back in early July they could have some interesting decisions with the pitching staff.

    They can't trot out Peralta every 5th day for the rest of the season because he will hit his innings limit super early. It probably makes sense to send him down and control his innings with the hopes he will be available to continue pitching late in the season.

    They'll probably insert Davies back into the rotation. Miley probably gets the spot start for the double header against Pittsburgh and probably figures to be between him and Suter to act as the swing man in the rotation.

  6. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by long ball View Post
    Anyway, that game tonight was fun. Freddy was great once again. Home runs are cool too. All in about 2 hr 45min.

    There is probably no point in even talking about it because as we've seen things just work themselves out, but with Davies and Miley coming back in early July they could have some interesting decisions with the pitching staff.

    They can't trot out Peralta every 5th day for the rest of the season because he will hit his innings limit super early. It probably makes sense to send him down and control his innings with the hopes he will be available to continue pitching late in the season.

    They'll probably insert Davies back into the rotation. Miley probably gets the spot start for the double header against Pittsburgh and probably figures to be between him and Suter to act as the swing man in the rotation.
    Going to be wild free-for-all with rotation I think. Guerra has been good, Chacin, too and Anderson won't be moved out of it unless gets really bad. Davies will slide back in for Peralta probably to control innings. I am torn I think Suter is best served as long-man but has 8 wins but does get run support. Not sure Miley is the answer but he's pitched well in spring and limited time.

    Wren got released which isn't a big deal for me. OF is loaded.

    Peralta has been outstanding and how huge would it be to get Braun and THames going and get hot for two weeks at least as Cain is on DL and Shaw is out for at least a few days.

  7. #217
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    Ya, I figure we will see some mixing and matching. Especially leading up to the all star break.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the 40 man sits at 39 until Miley comes back in a couple weeks. I haven't seen any interesting DFAs in the lat few days.

    Probably see Keon get the start in CF tomorrow. Duffy on the mound so probably a right handed heavy line up + Yelich.

    The Reds are throwing 4 RHP. Thames has killed the reds the last two years so that's good. Brad Miller probably gets in the line up at least 3x in the series as wel

  8. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by long ball View Post
    Hey, there's always a risk when you acquire a guy that he won't perform. Escobar's approach started to change last year and it seems he's really capitalizing on those changes this year. Manny Machado had only a 102 wRC+ last year. He's only at a 99 wRC+ for June. There's no guarantee with anyone.

    If it's me running this team, I think I target Escobar + Wilson Ramos. I can probably get those 2 players for less than Machado.

    https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/06/13/ed...ch-angle-stats This is a good in depth look at what Escobar is doing this year.
    But machado was 130 and 135 in his years prior to his 102 wRC years and is 145 this year. Thereís a difference in risk between a guy with a track record busting in a half year rental and a guy with virtually no track record busting.

    And that article is great. Good for him for reinventing himself. But even in the two weeks since that article was written, some of the callout numbers, like fb% and gb% are starting to regress backwards. And very similar articles to that were written by fangraphs about Domingo Santana last year. He had launch angle improvements and hr/fb improvements that looked good, but as we are seeing this year, his numbers were arificislly inflated by some of that stuff, particularly babip.

    And thames had a similar story early last year with the pitch selection stuff. When he was mashing early in the year, his chase rate was crazy low. But as teams adjusted to him, heís started chasing more. Looking at the Escobar heat map, heís going to get a steady diet of high fastballs, especially up and in. If he continues to struggle with those pitches, itís fairly likely you see his chase rate on low pitches go up, since that what heís been hitting.

    Again, Iím not against him if the price is right. But if minn decides to deal him, they are going to treat him like a changed man and ask for a price that meets his current production. While his improvements and approach change may be left, heís still a candidate to regress simply due to batted ball luck. Add in the potential for the other stuff, and itís unlikely you get his current production the rest of the year. If the asking price isnít much, or no one is willing to pay the borderline all star price minn might ask, then Iím okay with it.

  9. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by long ball View Post
    Ya, I figure we will see some mixing and matching. Especially leading up to the all star break.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the 40 man sits at 39 until Miley comes back in a couple weeks. I haven't seen any interesting DFAs in the lat few days.

    Probably see Keon get the start in CF tomorrow. Duffy on the mound so probably a right handed heavy line up + Yelich.

    The Reds are throwing 4 RHP. Thames has killed the reds the last two years so that's good. Brad Miller probably gets in the line up at least 3x in the series as wel
    Agree. Unfortunately the reds are playing really well right now. Hopefully they cool off when we face them. Either way, if we can play .500 ball with Cain on the DL, Iíll be happy, especially with Shaw missing a couple games too.

    The only thing I could see is doing with the 40 man would be to nab a reliever for a 1 game appearance if our pen gets taxed. Grab a guy thatís been dfa for a few days to sit him at the back of the pen without wasting options or spots on other guys. Then let that guy go again when Miley is ready.

  10. #220
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    I agree. I donít really expect Escobar to maintain his current production over the course of the year. In my head, Iím hoping for something similar to what Walker provided (120 OPS+) but with the ability to stand at SS 5 days a week.

    I just donít expect Escobar to cost a lot. Since he wonít get a QO, I just canít see the Twins holding out for a kings ransom.

  11. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by long ball View Post
    I agree. I donít really expect Escobar to maintain his current production over the course of the year. In my head, Iím hoping for something similar to what Walker provided (120 OPS+) but with the ability to stand at SS 5 days a week.

    I just donít expect Escobar to cost a lot. Since he wonít get a QO, I just canít see the Twins holding out for a kings ransom.
    There isn't much of a market for SS sadly for the Crew. I doubt he's available but how big would an Andrelton Simmons make? Not sure his contract situation though. Angels might be out of AL Playoff Race by deadline. For C I would look at Ramos or a package of Lucroy with either Semien/Treinen or Lowrie. Not sure a SP will be available w/o a huge return. Rays probably going to hold on to Archer as injuries have negatively impacted his value.

    I see on MLB.com Brewers have inquired about Dietrich would is a LH Hernan Perez basically that can play everywhere. But he's having a very good year for MIA.

  12. #222
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    Dietrich doesnít do a ton for me. Heís ďversatileĒ in the sense that he can play multiple positions, but he probably shouldnít. Heís a 2nd baseman, who you can throw into the OF, which we likely wonít need, and can play some 3rd. But I donít think he should play 3rd for more than a few innings. So heís basically 2nd base only for us, and Iím not sure that heís a ton better than brad Miller and villar, who probably should primarily play 2nd as well.

  13. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Dietrich doesnít do a ton for me. Heís ďversatileĒ in the sense that he can play multiple positions, but he probably shouldnít. Heís a 2nd baseman, who you can throw into the OF, which we likely wonít need, and can play some 3rd. But I donít think he should play 3rd for more than a few innings. So heís basically 2nd base only for us, and Iím not sure that heís a ton better than brad Miller and villar, who probably should primarily play 2nd as well.
    I agree. Dietrich's biggest value with Brewers - ability to play multiple spots - is taken away, his versatility. If want upgrade at 2B rather get Luc/Lowrie package from A's. But man Brewers getting nothing from SS with Arcia...a .228 OBP...that's just anemic. Brad Miller will likely be playing there until Saladino returns, even though don't think he's close to answer at SS either but at probably best option as far as defense and offense combo. Arcia can come in for defensive replacement when team is ahead or tied in 7th or later. Might go down again when Saladino returns. TOo bad Dubon got hurt as he could play SS and could see what he could do.

  14. #224
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    Problem is Miller is a fairly poor defender at short. Agree arcia can come in (if up) late in games, by ttheres a real chance arcias glove is just as valuable as millers bat.

  15. #225
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    Thoughts on a few things:

    Dietrich; really doesnít do much for this team. Lefty second basemen/3b/emergency OF isnít something this team needs. I think heíd get non tendered anyway do control doesnít mean much.

    Iím actually fine with starting Miller at SS for the most part. The rotation doesnít have many GB pitchers right now. Iím fine with him starting against RHP when Suter, Chase, or Peralta are pitching. Once you get to the pen with a lead he should be removed for arcia (or sogard I guess) defensively.

    Andrelton Summons is legit amazing. I donít see why the Angels would trade him though.

    Iíd be interested in Lowrie but he canít play short any more so he sorta limits the bench. Aís will probably sell rental players but theyíve been good so far.

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