2018 Spring Training

[long ball]

This is probably pretty close. I think you might be a little light on Yelich and Cain if they are healthy. Yelich in particular probably starts 150 games. Yelich and Cain are 4-5 war players when healthy and Braun, thames and Santana are probably more like 2-3 war players, so to me it makes sense that those 2 get more starts. Those two are also very good defenders, which you can’t really say about Braun, thames and Santana.

You're probably right if everyone stays healthy, I might be a tad light on Cain/Yelich. That really is the key though. If everyone stays healthy then we don't have to suffer through a bunch of riff raff starting at those 4 positions. IF they can keep the OF/1b starts to just these 5 players they should be in pretty darn good shape.

[long ball]

Now that Arrieta is signed that leaves just Cobb left on the FA market. I'd still like to see them sign Cobb, but if they don't I think Miley makes the team. I think Gallardo gets cut.

The Brewers will likely need at least 10 different starters this season. If it plays out something like below, I think they'll be just fine.

Davies- 30
Chacin- 30
Anderson- 27
Suter- 15
Miley- 13
Guerra- 13
Nelson- 12
Woodruff- 10
Wilkerson- 6
Burnes- 6

They'll likely end up needing 2-3 other spot starters throughout the season do to injuries or scheduling.

I'm most nervous about the Guerra, Miley, and Nelson starts. Guerra and Miley do to bounce backs from bad years and Nelson due to injury.

[jay87shot]

So there are so there are 648 starts between 1st and the 4 OF spots plus 10 dhgames, so 658 starts.

I am guessing something like
Cain=155
Yelich=155
Santana=120
Braun=114
Thames=114

I would be surprised to see Cain or Yelich taking any days off unless injured because of the investment made in them. That is without injuries and guys like Broxton or Phillips getting a couple starts. I still wouldn't be surprised to see a Santana trade a month or so into the season when some teams might call up minor leaguers to save control time. Julio Teheran for Santana makes a lot of sense with all the young arms Atlanta has.

[twellner9]

I also think when comparing Braun to Thames its in the Brewers best interest to play Braun more because of his contract. He's here for a while yet and at a hefty price tag. They need production out of him.

I also want to say that crewfan is cherry picking Thames best career years statistically and Braun's worst to compare them. Yes Braun was terrible at first, but that was because of his arm not his glove, and they knew he wasn't ready to play an MLB third but his bat was so good they rushed him through the minors. Completely different than playing first, his back would be the bigger concern with him moving back to the infield than his defense.

I get Braun offensively has been a bit sluggish offensively since the steroid thing, but I also think he's had a few injury laiden years in there that hurt his numbers, and he really didn't have much of a lineup around him in those seasons. If he avoids the DL I would expect Braun to product just like he did in 2015 and 2016. He'll be about a 4 WAR player that gets 500+ ABs and plays in 135+ games.

[crewfan13]

I compared brauns wRC to every year since 2012. That’s not cherry picking. Braun hasn’t been an mvp caliber player in years. And Braun himself said that he is uncomfortable at first.

And it wasn’t just brauns arm that was the problem at 3rd, it was also his footwork. And footwork is very important at 1st. Braun also said in his interview a few days back that 1st puts more stress on his back than playing outfield does. Braun is not going to play 100 games at first this year unless we are crushed with injuries.

Thames is 31. There’s very little in his underlying stats to suggest he’s incapable of repeating his season last year and he’s at an age where you wouldn’t expect drastic regression.

Braun is 34. He’s been a decent to good hitter since 2012, but no where near his mvp levels. He’s at an age where improvement is unlikely, and age related regression wouldn’t be surprising. Braun had some bad luck with batted balls last year, so the underlying stats indicate that he has some room for statistical growth due to luck. But that statistical growth would put him closer to his 2016.

So even if that happens, and there’s no age related dropoff, thames was still better against righties than 2016, and it was by a fairly significant margin (10 percentage points more when compared to league average).

Braun is also much more effective when he’s healthy. So you’re suggestion, putting Braun at first against righties more than thames, likely scores less runs (since thames created more runs against righties last year than Braun has created since 2012), could very easily give up more runs (since I don’t think its likely that Braun is a better defender in year 1 than thames) and puts more stress/risk of injury to Braun (since by his own words first is harder on his back).

And if thames regresses, then you figure it out. Maybe it is Braun at first more. Maybe if Braun isn’t comfortable there, it’s Shaw to first and Perez to 3rd or something. There’s no guarantee thames doesn’t regress. I’m not naive to that. But on the flip side, there’s also nothing that says he can’t improve. This was his first season back stateside. Perhaps an offseason to reacquaint himself would help marginally as well. My point is that from an underlying numbers perspective, thames first season didn’t appear to be a major fluke. He’s never going to be the guy he was over the first month for a full season. He’s also not going to be as bad as he was in June for a long period. He lies somewhere in the middle. And if yoj take out the best and worst month, his somwhere in the middle was a guy who hit righties 30% better than league average but struggled va lefties. And the stats support that could be the guy he is. So in my mind, he deserves the chance to prove he can be that guy again because the offense as a whole is better with that guy in the lineup vs righties than it would be with last season santana or any version of Braun since he’s come back from his suspension.

[crewfan13]

So there are so there are 648 starts between 1st and the 4 OF spots plus 10 dhgames, so 658 starts.

I am guessing something like
Cain=155
Yelich=155
Santana=120
Braun=114
Thames=114

I would be surprised to see Cain or Yelich taking any days off unless injured because of the investment made in them. That is without injuries and guys like Broxton or Phillips getting a couple starts. I still wouldn't be surprised to see a Santana trade a month or so into the season when some teams might call up minor leaguers to save control time. Julio Teheran for Santana makes a lot of sense with all the young arms Atlanta has.

This is probably pretty good for starts. Could be a little heavy on santana, but it’s hard to say. However, if we keep Braun, Santana and thames, I have to imagine broxton and Phillips are both sent down to aaa, especially since Hernan is a capable of in case we need a 5th guy for a day due to injury.

I do wonder if we thought we could get Cleveland to trade a guy like Salazar for santana. But then Salazar showing up to camp with some arm issues may have thrown a wrench into that plan.

I do also worry that we are overvaluing Santana as fans. He has some significant concerns in his underlying stats that could indicate regression. His babip and sky high hr/fb ratio (espeically when comparing that ratio to his ISO). He’s still young and has a very good baseline. He makes a lot of hard contact and walks a bunch, so I think his floor is fairly high. But I don’t think teams are willing to pay what we might think a team should pay for a guy his age with his stat line from last year.

[twellner9]

Well I think in the ideal world Stearns wanted to move on from Santana and use him as a trade chip to pick up a pitcher. There's still a real possiblity that happens. I think they'd prefer to get Braun in the outfield more and to get Phillips at the MLB level.

You are right though, I find it very unlikely they bring Phillips up as long as Santana is on the team (Broxton might make it because I don't think the Brewers care if they use him up, he's not part of their long term plans regardless). Same reason why I think Guerra has almost zero shot of making the opening day roster, they can keep him in AAA at no risk and always call him up if Miley (likely 5th starter) struggles early.

I find it interesting the Brewers are showing no interest in the remaining free agents. Likely aren't high enough on any of them to give up the draft pick or slot money it would cost. I'm sure Stearns wants a trade, but it has to be the right trade where we maximize value, not just giving someone like Santana away because we have too many outfielders.

[crewfan13]

I guess it’s possible Cobb has been their main target all along and maybe we still get him, but I agree. From rumors and looking at numbers, it doesn’t seem like we could have been that interested Lynn and possibly not arrieta either. Seems like we checked in on darvish in case he came cheap, but that was probably the extent of our checks.

[long ball]

Starting to look like JJ Hoover might make this team.

Probably costs Drake a spot. Drake is probably a little redundant since he's best against lefties and Boone Logan is likely to fill that LOOGY role.

[crewfan13]

Plus there’s a chance suter ends up as the long man as well. We may be loaded with lefties in the pen.

[crewfan13]

Looks like you were right twellner, Braun will most likely start opening day at 1st as it sounds like the padres are starting a lefty.