Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 4 of 7 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 95
  1. #46
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    26,138
    Bird has 20 HR in 94 regular season games, which would be on pace for 34. Also, about 25 of those games (all April last year) he was dealing w an ankle injury. Of course it's a very small sample size, 348 PAs, but if he stays healthy for the entire season I'll be very surprised if he doesn't hit 30.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  2. #47
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    53,560
    Quote Originally Posted by goingfor28 View Post
    Bird has 20 HR in 94 regular season games, which would be on pace for 34. Also, about 25 of those games (all April last year) he was dealing w an ankle injury. Of course it's a very small sample size, 348 PAs, but if he stays healthy for the entire season I'll be very surprised if he doesn't hit 30.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
    I know guys hit less as kiddos in the minors, but if you combine his minor league and MLB PA

    You have 1927 PA - 71 HR
    Avg of 650 PA would yield a pace of 24 HR

  3. #48
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    7,558
    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    By being realistic....

    If I am on that subject. I would expect between Stanton and Judge that combined between the two they have around 20 Less HRs than last year.

    I would expect Sanchez to be somewhere around where he was last year. I would be Mildly surprised if Didi gets to 25 HRs again.

    I wouldn't expect Bird to hit 30+ HRs.

    I'd be surprised if the yankees are not top 5 in HRs, but I certainly don't expect and more so doubt they break the HR record
    In 94 career games, Bird has 20 home runs and 59 RBI. Based on those totals, he projects to hit 34 and drive in 102 runs over a full 162-game schedule. Interestingly, his three postseason HR's in 14 games also puts him on pace for 34 over a full slate. His ZiPS projections for 2018 are slightly lower: 32 homers in 600 plate appearances. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...31&position=1B

    Granted he must stay healthy, a fact that remains to be seen. Imo 30+ is well within his grasp, particularly with his lefty swing at the stadium AND if he bats in the 3 hole between Judge and Stanton, as Boone has intimated.

    I surmise the Beantown bias might be getting in the way of allowing you to imagine the Yanks breaking the record.
    “Farts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” — Aldous Huxley
    "Not everything that counts can be counted and not everything that can be counted counts."--- Albert Einstein
    “Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.”---- James Baldwin



  4. #49
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    37,885
    I sure don't expect Bird to hit 30.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  5. #50
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Rhode Island
    Posts
    32,704
    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    By being realistic....

    If I am on that subject. I would expect between Stanton and Judge that combined between the two they have around 20 Less HRs than last year.

    I would expect Sanchez to be somewhere around where he was last year. I would be Mildly surprised if Didi gets to 25 HRs again.

    I wouldn't expect Bird to hit 30+ HRs.

    I'd be surprised if the yankees are not top 5 in HRs, but I certainly don't expect and more so doubt they break the HR record
    I'd expect that Judge/STanton actually have a steeper drop off than that. More like 25-30 less would be my guess.

    I think Sanchez will get as many as last year over a full year but remember he missed a month. So getting the same amount over a full year would actually be a downgrade.

    I'd b surprised if DIdi got to 25 again too.

    I really just disagree with you on Bird. I think he'll get 30 over a full year. He's played to that pace when he has been out there. I think his swing is tailor made for Yankees stadium power. I think that he will end up being very low average because of how many fly balls he hits but i think he'll still walk enough to put up respectable OBP and then he'll get some Yankee stadium driven power. Not saying he's going to be great but I feel pretty strongly about him hitting 30.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  6. #51
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    13,168
    Playing to that pace in a couple of separate small doses doesn’t really mean all that much to me.

    Not impossible for him to hit 30 but like others have said, I wouldn’t expect it.

  7. #52
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    154
    I think Judge and Stanton will clear 30, I seriously doubt the both go north of 40, if one of them does, I’ll be happy. I think Bird, If healthy can hit 25-30. Sanchez 25-30. Didi 20-25. They won’t clear the record, but they have potential to hit a lot.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  8. #53
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    30,204
    Quote Originally Posted by RomineLettuce View Post
    I think Judge and Stanton will clear 30, I seriously doubt the both go north of 40, if one of them does, I’ll be happy. I think Bird, If healthy can hit 25-30. Sanchez 25-30. Didi 20-25. They won’t clear the record, but they have potential to hit a lot.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    You just *****ed at me like a week ago when I said Judge would regress. Now you think him and Stanton won't go north of 40 homers? Really?

    I think its a pretty safe bet if both Stanton and Judge are healthy they'll hit 40 or more homers. I think Stanton is very capable of hitting 50 again in 2018 if he plays 140+games. Bird is presumably a 30 home run bat if healthy as well.
    Last edited by metswon69; 02-27-2018 at 02:41 PM.

  9. #54
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    East of the Sun, West of the Moon
    Posts
    27,077
    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    You just *****ed at me like a week ago when I said Judge would regress. Now you think him and Stanton won't go north of 40 homers? Really?

    I think its a pretty safe bet if both Stanton and Judge are healthy they'll hit 40 or more homers. I think Stanton is very capable of hitting 50 again in 2018 if he plays 140+games. Bird is presumably a 30 home run bat if healthy as well.
    38 and 39. 2018 will be known as the dead ball era.
    Baseball Maverick: How Sandy Alderson Revolutionized Baseball and Revived the Mets
    I am that Daddy Cool

  10. #55
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    30,204
    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    38 and 39. 2018 will be known as the dead ball era.
    I heard MLB is making teams refrigerate the baseballs now pre game in an attempt to limit the home runs but if offense continues to escalate as is, I don't see either guy regressing that significantly. Especially if both guys are healthy this year.

  11. #56
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    154
    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    You just *****ed at me like a week ago when I said Judge would regress. Now you think him and Stanton won't go north of 40 homers? Really?

    I think its a pretty safe bet if both Stanton and Judge are healthy they'll hit 40 or more homers. I think Stanton is very capable of hitting 50 again in 2018 if he plays 140+games. Bird is presumably a 30 home run bat if healthy as well.
    I forgot success in baseball is dependent on hitting 40+ homeruns. If he hits 38 homeruns and strikes out 150 times while keeping his OPS at a high level, would that be considered regressive season?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  12. #57
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    30,204
    Quote Originally Posted by RomineLettuce View Post
    I forgot success in baseball is dependent on hitting 40+ homeruns. If he hits 38 homeruns and strikes out 150 times while keeping his OPS at a high level, would that be considered regressive season?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    A guy who hit 52 homers last year you seriously doubt will go north of 40 in 2018? I think its a pretty safe bet the home run pop is probably his least regressive trait if healthy. Its the wOBA, wRC+, and other peripheral stats that are presumably more regressive. I don't expect his strikeouts to go down significantly because he takes a lot of pitches and usually guys who profile like he does, strike out a lot.

  13. #58
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    53,560
    Aaron Judge STEAMER projection - 37 HR - .254/.368/.518 - 133 wRC+ (14.7 BB%, 30.5 K%)
    Stanton STEAMER projection -53 HR - .287/.379/.654 - 165 wRC+ (12.3 BB%, 26.1 K%)

    Seems pretty close on Judge, a little optimistic on Stanton, but certainly possible.

    I'd probably jump Judge 5%, drop Stanton 10%
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 02-28-2018 at 02:53 AM.

  14. #59
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Los Angeles County, CA
    Posts
    41,480
    I personally think Judge's babip will be closer to the fans projection (330) than Zips or Steamer (315) because of his exit velo and consistent line drive stroke. His xWOBA was a mere 5 points higher than his actual wOBA.

    The league better hope that he doesn't find that September stroke again. That was ****ing ridiculous.

  15. #60
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    53,560
    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    I personally think Judge's babip will be closer to the fans projection (330) than Zips or Steamer (315) because of his exit velo and consistent line drive stroke. His xWOBA was a mere 5 points higher than his actual wOBA.

    The league better hope that he doesn't find that September stroke again. That was ****ing ridiculous.
    But that's dependent on him actually squaring balls up that often again.

    He totally could, he just really jumped up this year

Page 4 of 7 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •