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  1. #1
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    Yankees and the pursuit of the single season HR record (team)

    The record is 264 by the 97 Mariners

    The Yankees hit 241 last season, have added Stanton, and should be getting a major boost with Bird at 1B. Even with a little drop-off from G and Judge they should still threaten that mark. I could see them hitting 270.

    Thoughts?

  2. #2
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    I'd bet against it happening.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    I'd bet against it happening.
    Same. In fact, Iím going to.

  4. #4
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    Iíll bet for it .....
    #BringBackMatty

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    The record is 264 by the 97 Mariners

    The Yankees hit 241 last season, have added Stanton, and should be getting a major boost with Bird at 1B. Even with a little drop-off from G and Judge they should still threaten that mark. I could see them hitting 270.

    Thoughts?
    I thought the Yankees had a decent shot last year earlier in the season.


    But I'm going to bet against it happening. In fact, I'm going to make the prediction that neither Stanton or Judge hit 40 this year.

    Feeling squirrely. But injuries and regressions would be required of course.

    Bird, Sanchez, or Gregouris could lead the team in HR's


    Holiday, Frazier, Headley, and Castro are all gone. That's 58 HR's. Carter's hit 8 will easily go to Bird, and someone will play 2B and 3B and hit some, but not 29 each. Stanton is replacing Holliday's 19.

    250ish sounds like a fair prediction, with a fully healthy season from most of their regulars.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 02-15-2018 at 10:08 AM.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I thought the Yankees had a decent shot last year earlier in the season.


    But I'm going to bet against it happening. In fact, I'm going to make the prediction that neither Stanton or Judge hit 40 this year.

    Feeling squirrely. But injuries and regressions would be required of course.

    Bird, Sanchez, or Gregouris could lead the team in HR's


    Holiday, Frazier, Headley, and Castro are all gone. That's 58 HR's. Carter's hit 8 will easily go to Bird, and someone will play 2B and 3B and hit some, but not 29 each. Stanton is replacing Holliday's 19.

    250ish sounds like a fair prediction, with a fully healthy season from most of their regulars.
    IDK about that, I would certainly bet one of them hitting 40. I think there is probably a better chance both hit 40 than neither, even with regression.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jetsguy View Post
    IDK about that, I would certainly bet one of them hitting 40. I think there is probably a better chance both hit 40 than neither, even with regression.
    fwiw, last year was the first year either had ever hit 40 in any pro season. Yankee stadium will help, but hitting 40
    HR's isn't an easy thing no matter what you do.

  8. #8
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    We're talking about an all-time record so the smart money is probably against it but it's certainly something to monitor.

    They definitely should get a lot more HRs out of 1B with Bird playing a full year - more so because of how bad 1B was last year than even Bird being great (though I think he can be).

    Stanton replacing the Holliday (1st half)/Headley (2nd half) duo at DH should be a huuuuuuuuuge boost.

    Sanchez/Didi missed a month each last year and were replaced by non-hitters like Torreyes and Romine so that could help.

    Hicks missed a bunch of time and even if his small sample size breakout isn't for real he should still bring more HRs than Ellsbury did in that playing time he picked up.

    So just on the above they do into the season with a lot of pick-up potential at those positions and they were relatively close total wise last year so it makes for a real interesting discussion. But that's offset by some negative...

    Castro was a big plus power wise as a 2B. Even if Torres comes up as a top prospect or Tyler Wade shows why he got some top 100 love last year or Torreyes magically hits 300 for long stretches again, there is still in all likelihood being a big power drop. The fact that Castro missed a big chunk of time last year does mitigate this to an extent.

    At 3B we had Headley for the first half of the year and then Frazier for the second half (with Headley becoming the DH). Headley had little power but Frazier brought good pop. Andujar as a rookie is expected to play 3B and that's a question mark. Power wise he could be able to beat Headley's first half but can he beat Frazier's 2nd half? This one could go either way but with a rookie there's potential for a flop.

    And then there's just regression. Judge came out of nowhere and could fall back. Sanchez was on a 40 HR pace which is absurd for a catcher. Didi set a career high he might not maintain. Gardner set a career high that he shouldn't be expected to maintain. Hicks could regress back to being trash. Stanton probably doesn't push 60 again.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  9. #9
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    Adding Stanton, and getting a full season of Bird/Didi/Sanchez will all be a big boost. They were only 23 away last year with Bird missing 5 months, and Didi/Sanchez missing a month each.
    That being said, I don't expect Gardner to hit 20+ again, and I doubt Andujar/Torres match the 39 hit by Frazier/Headley/Castro last year.
    They'll come close for sure. I'd like to see them get it. It's definitely going to be fun to watch.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    We're talking about an all-time record so the smart money is probably against it but it's certainly something to monitor.

    They definitely should get a lot more HRs out of 1B with Bird playing a full year - more so because of how bad 1B was last year than even Bird being great (though I think he can be).
    Good points, I thought I would take each point by point

    Yankee first basemen last year combined to hit 27 HR's
    That's Bird (9), Carter (8), and a variety of others inching the number up. Will Bird top 27? It's certainly possible.

    Maybe this number inches up to 32?


    Stanton replacing the Holliday (1st half)/Headley (2nd half) duo at DH should be a huuuuuuuuuge boost.
    If we put Stanton in at DH for the year, just for the ease of doing this and not having to add and subtract Judge, then the DH's for the Yankees hit 28. If he hits 45 for example, that's a net 17 HR's. here.

    That would give the Yankees 5 at 1B, 17 at DH? That range

    Sanchez/Didi missed a month each last year and were replaced by non-hitters like Torreyes and Romine so that could help.
    Sanchez hit 33, but only 29 HR's were hit by catchers overall last year. As Sanchez did DH and do some other things. I'd say that's likely to be repeated around that range.

    Shortstops hit 26, I'd assume around that number again.
    Hicks missed a bunch of time and even if his small sample size breakout isn't for real he should still bring more HRs than Ellsbury did in that playing time he picked up.
    24 HR in LF, 18 HR in CF, and 51 HR in RF.

    Judge will regress some. Hicks also broke out. I feel like if we combine all the outfielders, you are probably expected to be in the same range. That's 93 outfielder HR's (assuming one of Stanton/Judge DH - I'm sure in reality it'll be a rotating thing with Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, Bird, etc, etc, all getting some days off to DH)

    You still have 34 HR's from 2B and 3B. Which is unlikely to be replaced (as you referenced).

    I think it's going to be crazy challenging to do it. They would have to average 1.63 HR's every game to do it. So every 10 games the team plays, if they aren't pacing at least 16 HR's, it's going to be crazy hard to do it.

  11. #11
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    If Didi Gregorious leads the 2018 New York Yankees in home runs I will eat my hat.


  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    fwiw, last year was the first year either had ever hit 40 in any pro season. Yankee stadium will help, but hitting 40
    HR's isn't an easy thing no matter what you do.
    Not an easy feat, no doubt. But this was Judges first full season and Stanton has just not been able to stay healthy enough for the last couple years prior to this last breakout year, its never been about power or ability with him.

    Time will tell just saying if I was betting, I would gladly take the bet of one of them reaching 40.

  13. #13
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    Jeffy, I'll lay a good amount down (I'm poor so my good amount and your good amount may differ lol) that Stanton or Judge lead the Yankees in HR this year over one of Bird, Sanchez, Didi. Actually, I'd bet on Stanton or Judge vs the field.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    Jeffy, I'll lay a good amount down (I'm poor so my good amount and your good amount may differ lol) that Stanton or Judge lead the Yankees in HR this year over one of Bird, Sanchez, Didi. Actually, I'd bet on Stanton or Judge vs the field.
    I don't doubt it will happen. I'd bet one of them would lead the team. I'm just saying I wouldn't be totally surprised.

  15. #15
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    I think Judge will regress in several areas like batting average for instance (and that will negatively impact his OBP and SLUGGING), but I think the homeruns will still remain high. Maybe not 50+, but I still think he's good for mid to low 40's. When I think of Judge, it reminds me of Ryan Howard a bit. He had that one season where he looked like a complete hitter with massive power, but the following years his weaknesses got exposed a bit and while his still hit a boat load of homers and was a very good hitter overall because of that and his patience, his batting average dropped. Judge has holes in his swing and I expect it'll get exposed a bit more this year. I wouldn't be shocked if he hits .240 with a 45ish homers and a good amount of walks to get that OBP up to the mid .300's.

    Stanton is an interesting case because he just hit nearly 60 at Marlins park. Now he goes to Yankees stadium. But still, you have to think he'll regress a bit here. I'll say he hits in the upper 40's... provided he remains healthy. But that health always seems to be a question for him.

    I know a lot of people are projecting 50+ homers from these two beasts, but I don't think people realize how difficult it is to hit that many homers, even in this juiced ball era and even in Yankees Stadium.
    Last edited by Wrigheyes4MVP; 02-15-2018 at 12:53 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by El Patito View Post
    Wow, you just won't let this go will you? I'd be more than happy to provide the numbers again if you'd like. The fact is that Marmol in his best season, put up one of the greatest performances by a reliever in the history of baseball. Better than Rivera? Youre damn right. You can't deny this.
    Marmolololololol

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