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  1. #2146
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    2017-18 Cubs Offseason Thread: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Salvaged Ship View Post
    Completely agree. Its the way lineups have been constructed since forever, now all of a sudden a few new stats say it doesn’t matter much? I don’t care what anyone says or what new numbers are produced there is no way I am going to agree its a good idea to bat the pitcher in front of Bryant or Rizzo, no way.

    And here come the rebuttals, I am not listening la-la-la-la-la-la-la
    I'm not going to bother with a rebuttal, but "it's how we've done it forever, and I'm not going to listen to any evidence that I might be wrong," is the worst argument anyone could make on any topic.


    I prefer to keep Bryant 2nd. It doesn't make a huge difference, but with him being the best hitter on the team and so hard to double up, I like him second in the order. I'd then alternate L/R with Rizzo, Contreras, Schwarber behind Bryant.
    Last edited by CP_414; 01-02-2018 at 02:19 PM.

  2. #2147
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    High OBP in front of high SLG when it comes to lineup construction for me.
    It just doesn't matter very much. There's preferences, but the overall premise is...it just doesn't matter and people who argue about Rizzo hitting in front of Bryant, or if Contreras should hit 4th or 5th...it's a waste of time.

    You could put the 5 best hitters names in a hat, pull them randomly, put them in an order and have about the same result any way they get pulled out if you play the game enough. The difference in order is minimal. And it doesn't really matter.
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  3. #2148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Salvaged Ship View Post
    Completely agree. Its the way lineups have been constructed since forever, now all of a sudden a few new stats say it doesn’t matter much? I don’t care what anyone says or what new numbers are produced there is no way I am going to agree its a good idea to bat the pitcher in front of Bryant or Rizzo, no way.

    And here come the rebuttals, I am not listening la-la-la-la-la-la-la
    You do realize that's absolutely *not* the way lineups have been constructed "forever"? Because there was a time where teams didn't care about OBP or SLG and instead put "the fast guy" first. That's only recently changed league wise the last 10-20 years, so unless a decade+ is "forever" ago, then your first premise is wrong. In fact, it's literally the same argument the people who thought that steals were the most important tool of the leadoff hitter used to make, too.

    Welcome to 2017. New information is pertinent. Lineup construction has changed plenty in the last 30 years, the last 15 years and in the last 5. But you're right, why listen to new ideas?

    No one is saying "hit Rizzo or Bryant behind the pitcher!". They're saying that Rizzo, or Bryant, or whomever leading off won't realistically change run output, especially over the course of a full season.
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  4. #2149
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    I am sure he will. But he will be 26 when he signs a new contract. His best years could very well still be ahead of him. Way different then giving Pujols or Cano 10 year deals.
    Pujols and cano were much better players then Hosmer, or Martinez, or Yu, or Arrieta. That’s my point these FAs just aren’t super elite and there isn’t a big market for there services bc of team needs. IMO it’s just more of a supply n demand thing, vs a league wide philosophy change in paying FAs. Contracts continue to go up and i think that will remain.

  5. #2150
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    Quote Originally Posted by TooL D/R/T View Post
    I just want some rumors. Doesn't have to be anything that will happen or an official signing. Just some rumors!
    When Cubs fans are talking "lineup construction", you KNOW the off-season has been slow. My goodness.

    Give me rumors/news or give pitchers/catchers reporting to camp. This staring contest between the F.O. and the players/agents is beyond boring.
    Screw sabermetics.

  6. #2151
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    I'm perfectly fine with the starring contest if it ends with us giving less years to a pitcher.

  7. #2152
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    It just doesn't matter very much. There's preferences, but the overall premise is...it just doesn't matter and people who argue about Rizzo hitting in front of Bryant, or if Contreras should hit 4th or 5th...it's a waste of time.

    You could put the 5 best hitters names in a hat, pull them randomly, put them in an order and have about the same result any way they get pulled out if you play the game enough. The difference in order is minimal. And it doesn't really matter.
    "Doesn't matter very much" can be the difference in standings, wins, HFA, etc. You put the best possible construction out there that you can, regardless if results are "minimal" Best hitters getting more at bats over the course of a season is what you do. I'm not talking flipping a 3/4 hitter or 5/6 etc., that's minimal.

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  8. #2153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Salvaged Ship View Post
    Completely agree. Its the way lineups have been constructed since forever, now all of a sudden a few new stats say it doesn’t matter much? I don’t care what anyone says or what new numbers are produced there is no way I am going to agree its a good idea to bat the pitcher in front of Bryant or Rizzo, no way.

    And here come the rebuttals, I am not listening la-la-la-la-la-la-la
    I don't think anyone is saying the pitcher should hit in front of your hitters. I think the idea that the effects of lineup construction are anything other than marginal is what's incorrect. Every run counts, so of course you want the best constructed lineup you can have, but so long as your best hitters are hitting early in the lineup and your worse ones are lower, you'll score more or less the same amount of runs over the course of a season. It's not something that dynamically changes the course of the offense like people make it out to be though.

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  9. #2154
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    "Doesn't matter very much" can be the difference in standings, wins, HFA, etc. You put the best possible construction out there that you can, regardless if results are "minimal" Best hitters getting more at bats over the course of a season is what you do. I'm not talking flipping a 3/4 hitter or 5/6 etc., that's minimal.
    It really doesn't, though. That's the thing. When I'm talking minimal, it's incredibly minimal. For example, even if the Cubs decided to go ahead and hit the pitcher first, they'd be expected to score less than 1/2 a run a game less than the best-super-duper perfect lineup would. And that's if they hit Bryant and Rizzo 8/9 on top of it.

    It's so minimal that using last year's numbers, the difference between the best lineup and the 30th best lineup is the difference between expecting 5.191 runs a game and 5.180 runs a game. That's the difference between ONE expected run. All season. A lineup that had the pitcher first, followed by Russell and Baez with Bryant hitting 8th would have yielded 90 less runs. Beyond the Box score claims that 10 runs equal a win. So at the very, very, very, very worst, where the Cubs basically put their middle finger in the air, they'd have won 9 less games last season. Considering that no team is going to do that, and we can basically ignore that type of a lineup, it goes to show how little lineup construction matters as long as you can avoid hitting the pitcher first and your best hitter in the 8 spot.

    As long as a manager can identify his 3-4 best hitters, make sure they all hit in the top-5, while also making sure his pitcher hits 8/9...the outcome over the course of a season is not going to affect things like standings, HFA, or wins or losses. It's going to affect almost nothing except for a few people on a message board bantering about why "hitting the pitcher in front of Bryant who's leading off is silly" or whatever. When the end result is...it doesn't matter.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 01-02-2018 at 03:30 PM.
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  10. #2155
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    2017-18 Cubs Offseason Thread: Winter Meetings Edition

    http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2018/01/...h-cobb-yelich/

    Levine's latest.

    He says the Cubs and Cards are the two most serious teams on Arrieta. Also that the Cubs have had conversations regarding Cole and Archer.

    It reads like pure speculation, but he mentions Yelich and Cain.


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    Last edited by CP_414; 01-02-2018 at 03:45 PM.

  11. #2156
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2018/01/...h-cobb-yelich/

    Levine's latest.

    He says the Cubs and Cards are the two most serious teams on Arrieta. Also that the Cubs have had conversation regarding Cole and Archer.

    It reads like pure speculation, but he mentions Yelich and Cain.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Yeah a lot of that is just speculation. Interesting to see they may have moved back to Arrieta. Probably to see where his market is (or isn't).
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  12. #2157
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Yeah a lot of that is just speculation. Interesting to see they may have moved back to Arrieta. Probably to see where his market is (or isn't).
    I hope he's not speculating on Yelich. I don't think anyone in the media has connected Yelich and the Cubs yet.

  13. #2158
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I hope he's not speculating on Yelich. I don't think anyone in the media has connected Yelich and the Cubs yet.
    It'd be nice if he wasn't, but there didn't seem anything substantiation there. Just more like "Oh by the way, Yelich exists and he'd be nice in the lineup!" He made specific mentions of the Cubs checking in on Cole/Archer. Yelich was far more vague.
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  14. #2159
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    Cain would interest me on a 2-3 year deal

    Dayton should just lock his core back up on short term deals

  15. #2160
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    Cain would interest me on a 2-3 year deal
    He's been interesting for me since last mid-season. I just don't think he's on the Cubs priority but I would be so happy if the Cubs signed him.

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