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  1. #766
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    That sounds exactly like the throws Dak made this year. That was the system for Dak.
    And that's a narrative that I hear all the time. It's just not supported by the facts. If you check Dak's Air Yards per Completion for his career, it's around 60%. The league average is 57%.

    Brady, Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Rodgers, Stafford all these QB's referred to as elite, fringe-elite... their Air Yards % are in the low 50s. They're clearly dumping the ball off and the real play makers takeover. The majority of the passes for Jared Goff and Drew Brees this season are short passes. These QB's aren't even throwing the ball 5 yards downfield, if not behind the line of scrimmage.

    What was Drew Brees before Sean Payton's system -- which began by utilizing Reggie Bush in creative play calls to enhance the short passing game. It changed Brees career. He went from decent to elite in most peoples eyes overnight.

    According to my QB value metric.

    In 2005 Brees was the 9th best passer
    In 2004 Brees was the 9th best passer
    In 2003 Brees was the 36th best passer
    In 2002 Brees was the 18th best passer

    So his average ranking was 18th in this span. And this is without applying my Air Yards Adjustment. Sean Payton brings in a system built around the scatback and suddenly Brees is a top 3 QB. Coincidence? We know what Brees was before Sean Payton, he was an average starting QB. We saw how bad Goff was before McVay. We know Belichick brings in Cassel, Garoppolo, and they all look like Tom Brady statistically. So? These QB's are more a product of genius play calling and personnel utilization than they are pure talent. My challenge, is trying to quantify that.

  2. #767
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    And that's a narrative that I hear all the time. It's just not supported by the facts. If you check Dak's Air Yards per Completion for his career, it's around 60%. The league average is 57%.

    Brady, Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Rodgers, Stafford all these QB's referred to as elite, fringe-elite... their Air Yards % are in the low 50s. They're clearly dumping the ball off and the real play makers takeover. The majority of the passes for Jared Goff and Drew Brees this season are short passes. These QB's aren't even throwing the ball 5 yards downfield, if not behind the line of scrimmage.

    What was Drew Brees before Sean Payton's system -- which began by utilizing Reggie Bush in creative play calls to enhance the short passing game. It changed Brees career. He went from decent to elite in most peoples eyes overnight.

    According to my QB value metric.

    In 2005 Brees was the 9th best passer
    In 2004 Brees was the 9th best passer
    In 2003 Brees was the 36th best passer
    In 2002 Brees was the 18th best passer

    So his average ranking was 18th in this span. And this is without applying my Air Yards Adjustment. Sean Payton brings in a system built around the scatback and suddenly Brees is a top 3 QB. Coincidence? We know what Brees was before Sean Payton, he was an average starting QB. We saw how bad Goff was before McVay. We know Belichick brings in Cassel, Garoppolo, and they all look like Tom Brady statistically. So? These QB's are more a product of genius play calling and personnel utilization than they are pure talent. My challenge, is trying to quantify that.
    Anyway you try and slice it, Dak was putrid this year. He needs Zeke.

  3. #768
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Anyway you try and slice it, Dak was putrid this year. He needs Zeke.
    I set the table for a great debate about rethinking how we evaluate QBís and your homerism wonít let you do anything except start a playground fight.

    Ok,

    Dak needs his RB like Wentz needs his RT, right? Tell me what the difference is? In your mind how is Dak exposed but not Wentz? Dak hasnít proved that he can excel without Zeke ó Wentz hasnít shown that he can excel without Lane Johnson. If the loss of Zeke exposed Dak, then didnít the loss of Johnson expose Wentz?

    The Cowboys had arguably the best OL last year. The Eagles have had arguably the best OL this line. If Dak is simply a product of his pass protection, then what is Wentz?

    Dude, youíre in a mine field of contractions.
    Last edited by Lionel20; 01-06-2018 at 01:19 AM.

  4. #769
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Anyway you try and slice it, Dak was putrid this year. He needs Zeke.
    Nonsense - he needs a ****ing coach with brains. Dak was top 5 QBR until the Atlanta 10 sack game in which his coached failed to adjust for one of the best left tackles of the decade being out. He stuck to his "next man up" theme and didn't do anything to help. Dak was never the same after that. Garrett submarined Dak's second half of the season.

  5. #770
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    I set the table for a great debate about rethinking how we evaluate QBís and your homerism wonít let you do anything except start a playground fight.

    Ok,

    Dak needs his RB like Wentz needs his RT, right? Tell me what the difference is? In your mind how is Dak exposed but not Wentz? Dak hasnít proved that he can excel without Zeke ó Wentz hasnít shown that he can excel without Lane Johnson. If the loss of Zeke exposed Dak, then didnít the loss of Johnson expose Wentz?

    The Cowboys had arguably the best OL last year. The Eagles have had arguably the best OL this line. If Dak is simply a product of his pass protection, then what is Wentz?

    Dude, youíre in a mine field of contractions.
    Wentz excelled despite the loss of peters, sproles, made Nelson Agholor a worthwhile receiver, helped Ertz to a career year, etc. Wentz elevated guys around him. Dak was bad, very bad. One regressed hard while the other progressed. Which trend do you prefer in your QBs?

  6. #771
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    Quote Originally Posted by zookman65 View Post
    Nonsense - he needs a ****ing coach with brains. Dak was top 5 QBR until the Atlanta 10 sack game in which his coached failed to adjust for one of the best left tackles of the decade being out. He stuck to his "next man up" theme and didn't do anything to help. Dak was never the same after that. Garrett submarined Dak's second half of the season.
    Dak was fine until he lost Zeke. I agree though, Little Red is horrible.

  7. #772
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    I set the table for a great debate about rethinking how we evaluate QBís and your homerism wonít let you do anything except start a playground fight.

    Ok,

    Dak needs his RB like Wentz needs his RT, right? Tell me what the difference is? In your mind how is Dak exposed but not Wentz? Dak hasnít proved that he can excel without Zeke ó Wentz hasnít shown that he can excel without Lane Johnson. If the loss of Zeke exposed Dak, then didnít the loss of Johnson expose Wentz?

    The Cowboys had arguably the best OL last year. The Eagles have had arguably the best OL this line. If Dak is simply a product of his pass protection, then what is Wentz?

    Dude, youíre in a mine field of contractions.
    Dak is a product of Zeke, not his pass protection.

  8. #773
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    Better qb this year, Dak or Keenum?

  9. #774
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    Dakís stats were awful? Ok, so you think Dakís 2017 was on par with Carson Wentz and Jared Goffís numbers last season? Youíre proving why math is essential every time you post. I can show you mathematically how Wentz/Goff were awful last year compared to Dakís 2017.
    yes, they were awful once he didn't have his pro bowl rb and fully healthy pro bowl oline.

    which is the exact point being made.

    his success has been largely because of that.

    and again you're just ignoring that.

    I'm saying it again. last year and the early part of this year your stance was system and players around the QB are irrelevant. dak was putting up good numbers so he's just a good QB.

    second half of this year where dak was just awful, and all of a sudden the system they're in is a huge deal!

    also, laughable that you think it's the system Stafford is in that makes him successful because he just throws short passes all day. really, REALLY shows that you don't actually watch the game and have no goddamn clue what you're talking about.

    Staffords strength has ALWAYS been his deep ball. anyone who actually watches games knows this.

    his problem throughout his career is he's had ****ing atrocious oline, and one of the worst olines and he generally doesn't have enough time for routes to develope and throw downfield.

    also, with their run game being zero threat teams drop more in coverage, and with the awful oline can still get at the qb rushing 4.

    gee, imagine that, actual football analysis telling you something stats don't.
    Quote Originally Posted by NormSizedMidget View Post
    It's different now than it was.

    When he won the second one, Giants fans are here we're outside of their minds.
    That quote always cracks me up.

  10. #775
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Better qb this year, Dak or Keenum?
    Keenum and it's not even close.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  11. #776
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    Dakís stats were awful? Ok, so you think Dakís 2017 was on par with Carson Wentz and Jared Goffís numbers last season? Youíre proving why math is essential every time you post. I can show you mathematically how Wentz/Goff were awful last year compared to Dakís 2017.
    QBs are supposed to progress from year 1 to year 2, not regress.

    If Prescott had merely played the same way he did in 2016, he'd still be worse statistically than Wentz and about equal to Goff in 2017.

    Dak's stats for the 2017 season aren't too bad because he put up good numbers when every offensive player from 2016 was available. When that wasn't the case, in the second half of the 2017 season he played about the same as Wentz did in 2016 without Lane Johnson (and Alshon Jeffery, Jay Ajayi, etc.). Again, the difference is that one was in his 2nd year and one in his 1st.

    Also let's not forget that Wentz only had his Pro Bowl left tackle for 50% of his games in 2017, too. Prescott about 72%.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    And that's a narrative that I hear all the time. It's just not supported by the facts. If you check Dak's Air Yards per Completion for his career, it's around 60%. The league average is 57%.

    Brady, Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Rodgers, Stafford all these QB's referred to as elite, fringe-elite... their Air Yards % are in the low 50s. They're clearly dumping the ball off and the real play makers takeover. The majority of the passes for Jared Goff and Drew Brees this season are short passes. These QB's aren't even throwing the ball 5 yards downfield, if not behind the line of scrimmage.

    What was Drew Brees before Sean Payton's system -- which began by utilizing Reggie Bush in creative play calls to enhance the short passing game. It changed Brees career. He went from decent to elite in most peoples eyes overnight.

    According to my QB value metric.

    In 2005 Brees was the 9th best passer
    In 2004 Brees was the 9th best passer
    In 2003 Brees was the 36th best passer
    In 2002 Brees was the 18th best passer

    So his average ranking was 18th in this span. And this is without applying my Air Yards Adjustment. Sean Payton brings in a system built around the scatback and suddenly Brees is a top 3 QB. Coincidence? We know what Brees was before Sean Payton, he was an average starting QB. We saw how bad Goff was before McVay. We know Belichick brings in Cassel, Garoppolo, and they all look like Tom Brady statistically. So? These QB's are more a product of genius play calling and personnel utilization than they are pure talent. My challenge, is trying to quantify that.
    If the system turns moderate talent into supposedly elite passers, why doesn't everybody run it?

    You're apparently factoring in NFL's Next Gen Stats now which is commendable, but you'd still have to consider things like WR drops and play action passes.

    Also when citing Air Yards stats you might want to also look at the same category for WR which ranks Dez Bryant as among the NFL elite in percentage of team's air yards (in both 2016 and 2017). So Prescott obviously benefits off of that in terms of air yards.
    Last edited by QB_Eagles; 01-06-2018 at 08:18 AM.

  12. #777
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    Quote Originally Posted by QB_Eagles View Post
    QBs are supposed to progress from year 1 to year 2, not regress.

    If Prescott had merely played the same way he did in 2016, he'd still be worse statistically than Wentz and about equal to Goff in 2017.

    Dak's stats for the 2017 season aren't too bad because he put up good numbers when every offensive player from 2016 was available. When that wasn't the case, in the second half of the 2017 season he played about the same as Wentz did in 2016 without Lane Johnson (and Alshon Jeffery, Jay Ajayi, etc.). Again, the difference is that one was in his 2nd year and one in his 1st.

    Also let's not forget that Wentz only had his Pro Bowl left tackle for 50% of his games in 2017, too. Prescott about 72%.


    If the system turns moderate talent into supposedly elite passers, why doesn't everybody run it?

    You're apparently factoring in NFL's Next Gen Stats now which is commendable, but you'd still have to consider things like WR drops and play action passes.

    Also when citing Air Yards stats you might want to also look at the same category for WR which ranks Dez Bryant as among the NFL elite in percentage of team's air yards (in both 2016 and 2017). So Prescott obviously benefits off of that in terms of air yards.
    The same Dez Bryant that was bouncing balls off his facemask, hands and head leading to INTs. Dez also led the NFL in dropped passes and gets zero separation. Other than that Dez is F'n elite

  13. #778
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    Here's a great air yard stat I just hope Linnehan reads it. Dallas is 18-0 when Dak averages more then 7 yards per attempt. That's not game manager number.

    Halfway through the season Dallas was 5-3 . Dak had 16 touchdowns with 4 picks and a rating well over 100.

    Then the loss of Zeke coincided with the beginning of Smith's issues and Dak and the coaches did a poor job at adjusting to losing the 2 best players in football at they're respective positions . And it's also the 2 positions the offense was built around. Add in the year Dez had and the sudden decline of Witten and you get what we saw the last 8 games.
    Last edited by surf and turf; 01-06-2018 at 09:43 AM.

  14. #779
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    Quote Originally Posted by zookman65 View Post
    The same Dez Bryant that was bouncing balls off his facemask, hands and head leading to INTs. Dez also led the NFL in dropped passes and gets zero separation. Other than that Dez is F'n elite

    ok, let's not exaggerate. he had 6 dropped passes on 132 targets.

    he also didn't lead the league in drops - http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?s...=1&sortOrder=0

    also it's pretty clear to most people that dezs sudden drop off is because dak isn't good enough to get dez the ball like Romo was. yeah dez doesnt get great separation, but he can get up and had a big body to box out, so a well placed ball will go to him 9 times out of 10, which is what Romo used to do, but again, dak isn't good enough
    Quote Originally Posted by NormSizedMidget View Post
    It's different now than it was.

    When he won the second one, Giants fans are here we're outside of their minds.
    That quote always cracks me up.

  15. #780
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    Quote Originally Posted by basch152 View Post
    ok, let's not exaggerate. he had 6 dropped passes on 132 targets.

    he also didn't lead the league in drops - http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?s...=1&sortOrder=0

    also it's pretty clear to most people that dezs sudden drop off is because dak isn't good enough to get dez the ball like Romo was. yeah dez doesnt get great separation, but he can get up and had a big body to box out, so a well placed ball will go to him 9 times out of 10, which is what Romo used to do, but again, dak isn't good enough
    That's not even close to being true. That toss up ball is the easiest 1 to throw. And Brice Butler had no problem catching any of Daks deep balls whenever he played. Dez doesn't seem to be getting as good position. He likes to go over the db and catch the ball at it's highest point . Seems like they are just waiting for that now and boxing him out. But here's what else they do. They stopped trying to pick the ball off. They immediately go for the swat. Now it's not a 50/50 ball.

    Plus when Romo was here Dez was burning WR deep . They don't even guard against that now. His double move was non existent this year. Plus by the time Dez got here Romo was a polished passing machine . He could throw from any arm angle running left or right with accuracy and velocity. And he was reading defenses by then as well as anyone...you just c Ant compare the 2.

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