Free Agency, Trade Ideas, Rumors V.7

[crewfan13]

But middleton isn't restricted. There's no reason to sign and trade for the other teams or middleton. If middleton wants to go somewhere, he can just sign the contract and he's gone.

Sign and trades get messy. If he signs with us and a trade falls through, then it could lead to alot of animosity between the sides.

The only way a sign and trade makes sense typically is if a team that's over cap wants him. Most teams have cap this summer, so that's not likely the case. Maybe if his FA drags out we can pull off a sign and trade after a team signs a few free agents. But that seems unlikely as well since middleton will likely want to sign quickly to avoid missing out. It's unlikely hes willing to wait until most teams use their cap.

Sign and trades are doable and we absolutely could do one with middleton by rule. But it's just generally unlikely. He has no reason to do us a favor and an opposing team has no reason to want to pay him a big deal and give up assets for him. So we could potentially do a sign and trade swap with indy for bogdanovic, but they have the cap space, so they'd be doing us a favor in that case by allowing us to not renounce mirotic to basically sign bogdanovic. And since they have cap space, it wouldn't do them any good. So there's no incentive for indy to do us that favor.

[twellner9]

My fear, as you can all tell, is that Middleton making that much money doesn't produce any better than he has this season. Maybe I come off as a hater, but at this point I don't consider him to be much more effective than even Sterling Brown. I certainly don't think he's better than Brogdon. Seems like he's destined to get another one of those forced into contracts that a team will instantly regret.

[crewfan13]

Brogdon and middleton are asked to do different things though too. Even though he's a forward compared to brogdon as a guard, middleton gets more assists and has a higher assist percentage.

And as he showed in the playoffs last year, he's one of the few guys capable of going off script to get himself a look. The majority of brogdon looks are assisted. In fact, just under 50% of his 2s are and just over 80% of his 3s are assisted. Middleton is just over 30% on 2s and just under 60% on 3s. That's valuable in the playoffs. At some point in the post season, you need guys that can get buckets. We have giannis to do that to an extent. But not much else. The reason guys like brogdon and Bledsoe are efficient this year is because they aren't being tasked with that. But come playoff time we will need that skillset once defenses really start to clamp down.

One of the things middleton does moderately well is be a bit of a chameleon. And by that I mean he's a guy who can play off the ball when giannis is in the game but play on the ball when he isn't. There's not many guys who can do both at a decent level. And finding a guy like that was something GMs could never do around LeBron.

Lebrons teams won because they were so much more talented than other teams. LeBron and wade and LeBron and kyrie were actually terrible fits. None of them could play off the ball. But both sets of guys were so talented that it didn't matter. Giannis is very similar to LeBron in the type of team you need to build around him. So we either need to find a crazy amount of talent or actually build a good fitting team around giannis.

And they hardest part about building around guys like giannis and lebron is when they are on the floor, you need to have a whole mess of shooters in the game. Most of the time those shooters aren't guys who can also create off the dribble. So when giannis or lebron sit, the offense stagnates because no one can play on the ball and create at all. And that's where guys like middleton come in. He legit can shoot it well enough to play off giannis, but he can also iso, pick and roll and create for others well enough in stretches where giannis takes a breather. Bledsoe has some of that in him too, but guys like brogdon, mirotic and others don't have a ton of that in them. They are much better off as part of an offense and without needing a ton of touches.

I'm very interested to see how this team plays in the playoffs. The playoffs are no joke and teams legit start to fully gameplan. Defenses get better and more intense. It's sort of been bud's kryotonite. His offenses have been good in the regular season but he hasn't been able to get that success in the post season. Obviously he's never had a player of giannis caliber, but we are going to need more than giannis to be successful and it's going to involve more than just getting looks within the regular offense.

[twellner9]

The problem with this whole theory of Giannis playing well with someone like Middleton is that it isn't true. Giannis plays worse with Middleon on the floor than he does with basically any other player. The team is only +8.5 Pts/100 with the combo of Middleton and Giannis but they are +11.5/100 with Giannis+Bledsoe, +12.2/100 with Giannis+Lopez and +11.9/100 with Giannis+Brogdon.

As far as Middleton playing without Giannis and how we need that scoring, the issue is that type of lineup is rarely ever seen. And while the stats on this are difficult (since most of the minutes without Giannis on the court are against weak teams when Giannis rests) from an observational perspective I don't think Middleton excels in that role. He tends to get stuck in isolation mode and force up a lot of tough contested jumpers. Middleton is not good at creating his own shot. Maybe he should do it a little less.

I think this is the problem most Bucks fans have when it comes to Middleton. I'd much prefer him to play like Brogdon. Play off the ball, and when you're open for 3 knock it down. If you have a mismatch take it to the hoop. This is how Brogdon scores and he does it well. Conversely Middleton tends to miss open jumpers, rarely gets to the rim, and he shoots a lot of contested mid-range shots which most of us would consider "bad" looks.

[crewfan13]

To me it comes down to the playoffs. And maybe hell struggle in the playoffs this year. But playoff basketball and regular season basketball are so vastly different. Regular season is strength on strength. There's some game planning involved, but not a ton. Both teams basically just do what they do best and see who comes out on top. That's not how things play out in the playoffs. The playoffs are weakness vs weakness. Teams game plan to take away your strengths. They get you out of your offense and try to force you to do things you don't normally do.

And that's where you can't have a team full of guys who take what comes to them and play within the framework all the time. Those guys are still valuable, but you need to go outside your normal game to succeed. Bledsoe can do that some. But middleton was the guy that did that a ton for us against the Celtics last year. Again, maybe he struggles and that changes my opinion on him, but that's needed.

And those somewhat inefficient mid range jumpers and post ups become more valuable shots if you can make them. Teams won't let you get what you got all year. You need to do other things as well. It's why teams like Philly struggled in the playoffs last year. Simmons is forced to shoot and Redick is forced to defend. It's the same reasons why those clippers teams did well in the regular season and struggled in the playoffs. The fast court up and down oop offense wasn't enough in the playoffs.

[twellner9]

I'd agree. If he turns it around in the post season than my opinion of him will change a bit. Last season against Boston though its not like his game was any different than it is now, he just happened to be making shots and he hasn't been able to do that for a while now. Last night for example, had a wide open kickout and airballed it. Later had another wide open 3 on the break and barely caught iron. Those are shots that need to go down on a high rate, especially in the playoffs.

But you've said it before, lets say he stinks in the post-season the way he has been lately. What are the options we have? What can we do with him? While I get the lack of flexibility with cap space, I've seen nothing that indicates he's worth anywhere near $30M.

[crewfan13]

Still anecdotal. I mea, he's shooting 38% from 3 on the season and he's about 39% for his career. Hell have some bad misses but that's a pretty good shooter. Broggy has shot it better this year but bled has been worse. If he hovers around a hair under 40% from three hell be fine as a shooter.

And quite frankly, even if he struggles in the playoffs, we don't have much of a choice. That was my biggest issue with the Bledsoe deal. It hurt any flexibility we could have had. We're basically locked into the roster. There's some opportunity for future trades, but we aren't letting anyone walk without getting worse.

And that's where I think our biggest disagreement is. You keep saying he's not worth $30 million. I guess to me, I don't care what he's worth. It's what is the alternative. Given our cap situation, unless we can dump snell and ersan, we aren't getting cap space until giannis is due his monster extension. So it's not what are these guys worth. It's whats the best way to build a competitive roster, and I can't see any realistic better way of building a competitive roster than bringing everyone back. Maybe some mid season trades next year can happen, but that would be about the earliest I can see anything major happening that actually help the team.

[twellner9]

The alternative is to let him walk and assume that a combination of Sterling Brown and DD are enough to replace him. Or hope there's enough interest in him that we can force a S&T to a team with limited cap space.

[HacksawButch]

I'd agree. If he turns it around in the post season than my opinion of him will change a bit. Last season against Boston though its not like his game was any different than it is now, he just happened to be making shots and he hasn't been able to do that for a while now. Last night for example, had a wide open kickout and airballed it. Later had another wide open 3 on the break and barely caught iron. Those are shots that need to go down on a high rate, especially in the playoffs.

But you've said it before, lets say he stinks in the post-season the way he has been lately. What are the options we have? What can we do with him? While I get the lack of flexibility with cap space, I've seen nothing that indicates he's worth anywhere near $30M.

I get where your coming from, based on his inconsistency. The numbers he's putting up are fine, considering he's playing significantly less minutes, but he has more bad games than good games, shooting. When Giannis sat those 2 games with the ankle though, his production and shooting went way up. The other parts of his game, rebounds, assists, steals and defense need to be considered in the evaluation as well. My problem is that he has too many games where he's not hitting his shot and not enough that he is.

If when the playoffs start, he elevates his game and his shooting, then pay him his money. This team is going to the playoffs every year from now on, so if he's inconsistent in the regular season and really good in the playoffs, then who cares about his regular season performance. There are a lot of players that play well in the regular season and then the playoffs come and they are no shows. Those are the players we don't need. His recent struggles shooting are a concern, but shooting isn't something that typically declines at his age, so it may have something to do with adapting to the new system. Nobody was asked to change more than Kris was in this system.

[crewfan13]

But the point is that because we are going to be over the cap anyways, we aren't really getting anything by doing that. All we are doing is saving the owners money essentially. The question isn't what's better, DD and brown or middleton, it's whats better, DD and Brown with maybe a small amount of money or DD, Brown and middleton. Those guys still exist on the roster.

And middleton will never be an albatross contract. He may not be a contract people are tripping over each other to get to. But he will be a useful player, even with what he's paid. It's not like he's already 30 and we're paying him for post prime seasons. We are basically paying him for his prime and steady years. Look at Otto porter. He's a worse version of middleton on a contract somewhat similar to what middleton is likely to get and he was dealt. They didn't get a ton of value back, but clearing the contract was relatively easy. I have no doubt the dame can be done with middleton in 2 years if need be.

[twellner9]

I understand this point, but there still needs to be a line draw that you're not willing to cross.

[gopackgo87]

I understand this point, but there still needs to be a line draw that you're not willing to cross.

I somewhat agree. But a team's situation dictates as well. Earlier crewfan stated every team is looking for guys that can play with or without the ball and make plays in the postseason. I think that's obvious but I don't think that it's that rare as he indicated. What is rare is these types being paid less than 20 mill. I mean there are some like Ingles who is even slower than Middleton. but he's about the only one I can think of. Beal makes 25 million, who is younger and more athletic than Midd. Off top of my head some that are great with or w/o the ball Kemba, Beal, Booker, Dragic, etc. who can play on and round 25-30 mill. Maybe Middleton takes a discount around 23 but I don't see any cheaper than that happening. I would sign middleton for 23 for sure.

[twellner9]

I'm at the point with Midds where I think it completely hinges on post-season play. We know he's going to get at least $25M, most likely more. So whether we pay him or not I'd base completely on how we do this postseason. If we make it to the ECF or further, I think we eat it and bring him back. Clearly this team would be considered good enough to compete for titles at that point. Conversely, if we lose in the first/second round I'd say we have evidence that this team just doesn't have the talent outside of Giannis to win a title and I'd let him walk in that scenario regardless of money.

[HacksawButch]

I'm at the point with Midds where I think it completely hinges on post-season play. We know he's going to get at least $25M, most likely more. So whether we pay him or not I'd base completely on how we do this postseason. If we make it to the ECF or further, I think we eat it and bring him back. Clearly this team would be considered good enough to compete for titles at that point. Conversely, if we lose in the first/second round I'd say we have evidence that this team just doesn't have the talent outside of Giannis to win a title and I'd let him walk in that scenario regardless of money.

There is a 0% chance that we are losing in the 1st round. The 2nd round is a different animal. Boston has been disappointing all season, but lets say we lose by a bucket in game 7, Boston then takes out Philly or Toronto in 5 and takes the Warriors to 6 or 7 games. Boston has the best, most talented team in the east. They haven't played that way and I fully expect the Bucks to knock them out in 6, but losing in the 2nd round shouldn't mean it's time to throw in the towel on this team, depending on the circumstances.

I agree that we need to see Middleton step it up in the playoffs, which I fully expect to happen. If he stinks it up, I'd be on board with letting him walk, rather than paying him $30 Mil plus. Losing him would likely mean we take a step back next season, unless Giannis gets way better again, like he does every season. Letting Middleton walk would free up money to bring back Sterling Brown in 2020/21 and DJ Wilson further down the road. It also might allow us to resign George Hill, who's been playing pretty well lately at just the right time.

[HacksawButch]

Middleton vs George Hill? If Middleton doesn't play well in the post season, maybe we should consider keeping George Hill, who's under contract for $19 Mil for next season. $19 Mil is an over payment and if we can renegotiate a 2 or 3 year more team friendly deal, that would be best, but he's under team control right now too. By keeping Hill, we have 2 solid PG's who can also play together some, which frees up other players to take up Middleton's minutes. I thought the George Hill trade was a bust until the last month or so, but now that he's playing his best ball, if he continues his current play in the Playoffs, that could be an alternative to resigning Middleton.