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  1. #406
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    Typically speaking, bunting with anyone outside of the pitcher lowers your total run scored, so it limits the big inning. However, when you need a run to tie the game, your probability for scoring 1 run (which gob absolutely need to score to extend the game) is higher with a runner on 2nd and 1 out than it is with a runner on 1st with no outs.

    Then factor in the hitters. Sogard had been playing fairy well and was having a nice game. But he's not a great player and has an extended track record as a less than stellar player. Neil walker and Ryan braun both have track records of being very successful hitters.

    In 95% of situations I would agree to not bunt. But to me, that was one of the few situations where a non pitcher bunt probably made sense.

  2. #407
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Typically speaking, bunting with anyone outside of the pitcher lowers your total run scored, so it limits the big inning. However, when you need a run to tie the game, your probability for scoring 1 run (which gob absolutely need to score to extend the game) is higher with a runner on 2nd and 1 out than it is with a runner on 1st with no outs.

    Then factor in the hitters. Sogard had been playing fairy well and was having a nice game. But he's not a great player and has an extended track record as a less than stellar player. Neil walker and Ryan braun both have track records of being very successful hitters.

    In 95% of situations I would agree to not bunt. But to me, that was one of the few situations where a non pitcher bunt probably made sense.
    Disappointing series with Cubs but this pen is fried. The offense just hasn't been good enough plain and simple in the second half. The pitching has been great all second half. The pen is fried and I think the need to be perfect has really weighed on the pen. Disappointing the offense can't break out more than once every 3 weeks or we have to win every game 3-2. Just not realistic.

  3. #408
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    Quote Originally Posted by gopackgo87 View Post
    Disappointing series with Cubs but this pen is fried. The offense just hasn't been good enough plain and simple in the second half. The pitching has been great all second half. The pen is fried and I think the need to be perfect has really weighed on the pen. Disappointing the offense can't break out more than once every 3 weeks or we have to win every game 3-2. Just not realistic.
    Yes the offense is the problem. Can't win scoring as little as we do. Watching the ESPN telecast even they said, we have something crazy like 40% of our at bats are a home run or a strikeout and while its nice to have guys with speed and power, you need a few gap hitters that can spray some doubles.

    The bright spot for me has been Phillips. I'm ready to move on from Broxton this off-season. If we can put him in AAA to fix his broken approach fine, but I wouldn't even really want him as a backup option because I think we have better players (Perez) available for that role.

  4. #409
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    Phillips has been getting some good at bats. He still has some mind boggling strikeouts (I recall a game against the cubs where he took a thigh high fastball down the middle to a called strike 3). But his approach has been solid. He's okay taking it the other way and dumping it in for a hit.

    That being said, I'm still open to moving him in the right deal. Brinson is probably still the long term answer in center. Phillips has shown more than I expected,but it's probably a good opportunity to sell sort of high on him when we have plenty of OF in our system.

    I'm fine dealing broxton as well. He has some flaws, but can still be a net positive player. I would think he has at least a little value in the trade market. We aren't getting a top prospect for him, but I would think he could get a wild card prospect or two or possibly be part of a larger deal.
    Last edited by crewfan13; 09-26-2017 at 01:14 PM.

  5. #410
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    Well you all know my opinion on this. Move Braun to first and give the outfield to Brinson/Phillips/Santana next year with Perez/Thames/Braun as backup outfielders. I want Phillips and Brinson to be given plenty of at bats to get used to MLB pitching next season. I don't want to trade either because I just don't see there being a great starter that will be worth trading for especially when we have plenty of young pitching talent to fill up spots.

    With the Nelson injury, that potentially means we need another starter for half the year (maybe longer because shoulder injuries can be impossible to recover from). But I'm not willing to give up what it would take to get Archer and I don't think we can afford a Darvish/Cueto in free agency. Given the small market strategy I'm a sell high and play with young players strategy. I'm willing to sign a few long term contracts if players (like Braun did) are willing to give a home town discount. But if we have a player more like a Prince Fielder (whom we knew we couldn't afford) we need to start moving those players before they become free agents for top level young talent.

  6. #411
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    I question a little how long CC let Hader pitch last night. We had a 3 run lead and yet we ran Hader out there for 3 innings. Not to say I don't think Hader is a good option, but it seemed to me like we were unnecesarily wearing out one of our 3 stud relievers. I'm going to be extremely annoyed if we lose one of the next 2 games late because Hader isn't available.

  7. #412
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    I don't think hader will throw back to back nights the rest of the year. He's only done it like once or twice and saw a big down tick in velocity. So if he's unavailable Thursday, I agree. But I don't think he would be available tonight regardless of how many innings he threw (as long as he threw at least 1 inning).

  8. #413
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    I think you and I have always differed on expectations for prospects as a whole. You always seem to be fairly optimistic about them, and I would probably be more pessimistic. I mean, I think there's a real chance at least one of, if not both of, Brinson and Phillips could easily turn into similar players to broxton. Both have some high strikeout rates and have had some ugly at bats (like most players do). But both are good defenders and super athletic with some pop.

    And a lot of those types of guys take some time to adjust to the big leagues. Buxton is a good example of that. He still can be very good and has put some months together that show his upside, but he's also had some very long cold spells. If he's up and down for 3-4 years before he finally puts it all together, it sort of negates some of the value of him being a good player on the cheap.

    We all know a guy like archer is very likely going to be a very good player. Barring injury, he's not likely to fall off unexpectedly any time soon. But prospects are much more volatile. Honestly, if it cost Brinson to get archer, I'd be very willing to do that, depending what else is asked for. Then you can sign a veteran OF to split time with Phillips.

    Like if we traded Brinson and other non major league ready prospects for archer, our pitching staff would be archer, Anderson, Davies, woodruff and hader to start the year. Nelson comes back and either fills in for an injury or replaces woodruff of hader if one is struggling as a starter. That's a heck of a rotation.

    Then I'd sign someone like a John jay or Austin Jackson to split time with Phillips in center and Braun in left (knowing that Braun probably only plays 120 games when healthy). Then you still have Perez as another OF option. A guy like that can likely be had on a 1-2 year deal worth $8 or so mill per year at most. Then try to bring back walker and improve the bullpen.

    To me, that has the makings of a pretty good team, unless you see a bunch of regression from Shaw, Santana and others (pina and arcia could be candidates as well). But if that happens, there's really no good way to improve, because we would be back at square one.

  9. #414
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    Well my main issue with saying I'd trade Brinson for Archer is that I know it is going to take a lot more than just Brinson to land him. I'd be willing to part with 1-2 guys for a top level pitcher with control. But for me its a matter of numbers. I agree, most prospects don't pan out. If you're a top 100 prospect at the AAA level you've got about a 25% chance of becoming an all-star level player. So while you're correct, not all the prospect pan out, I would argue that its easier and more affordable to acquire enough minor league talent such that you can be comfortable at least some of them will pan out.

    Its really all about balance. The Brewers need to stay near $100-130 million in payroll. That means we can commit to maybe 1-2 position players and 1-2 starters and some decent relief pitching and role players. To stay competetive the rest of the roster needs to be talented affordable players.

  10. #415
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    I completely agree with that. We can't afford a lineup like the major spenders. Like look at the cubs. Jason heyward is kind of a bust for what he was paid. It's not likely to really hurt the cubs. That type of move would kill us.

    But the advantage to having depth in the farm is the ability to draw from it without taking a major farm loss. So we lose Brinson in this case. Behind him for of depth we still have Phillips, ray, clark and Harrison. Those guys have had varying levels of success, but all are still okay prospects. There's a decent chance one turns into a serviceable player.

    So let's say the next peice or peices are top pitching prospects like Ortiz or burnes. I dont want to deal either one, but realistically, they will both be ready in the next year or two, and if we are trading for an archer type, we have archer, Nelson, Anderson and Davies under control during that time frame. We only need one of woodruff or hader to hit as a starter and our rotation is set for 2-3 years at least.

    You can argue the same with one of huira or Diaz. They are both primarily 2nd basemen, so they could be somewhat redundant. I get you're risking it more, since the one you jeep might fail, but you have to risk something to get something.

    To me, top shelf pitching is the most difficult thing to find. You can find positional players a little more easily. So if I have a shot a a controllable, semi cheap top shelf pitcher, I'm probably willing to overpay a little when it comes to prospects.

  11. #416
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    I'll be in a field level booth tonight. Don't fail me Brewers!! I expect us to score double digits this time around against Homer Bailey.

  12. #417
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    Phillips is young so OK he has some mind-boggling strikeouts...Thames stares at more strike 3s than any other player I remember. Most games seems like he just wants to walk. Takes strike 1 a lot especially when leading off. Might foul off a pitch then takes strike 3. I like Domingo but he takes a lot of backwards Ks.

    Broxton isn't going to get it. Dude is 28 by next year and isn't going to dramatically change. Might hit .250. But doesn't have a consistent approach. He has the power/speed combo, but doesn't make enough contact and never will. If he'd concentrate on going to right-center all the time he'd be a very good player. But just swings for the fence for weeks at a time. With his speed he should attempt on average one bunt every two games.

  13. #418
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    I'm not saying broxton will get it. I'm saying that there's a very real chance Phillips and/or Brinson end up as similar players, especially Phillips. Phillips has had high strikeout numbers the last few seasons. It appeared last year in AA Phillips changed as a hitter to a degree. He added power but lost average and struck out a bunch more. This year, in a hitter friendly environment (where broxton has flourished in the past), Phillips recovered some of that average. But he still struck out a bunch. There's a pretty decent chance he plays similarly to broxton.

  14. #419
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    I'll be in a field level booth tonight. Don't fail me Brewers!! I expect us to score double digits this time around against Homer Bailey.
    Dude I think you might be banned from going to games.

  15. #420
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Dude I think you might be banned from going to games.
    LOL!

    This offense has sucked the entire 2H. Second time Bailey has made it to the seventh inning without giving up a run vs. Brewers. Pathetic. Dude has 6.96 ERA. Everyone else smacking him all over.

    Broxton-Phillips I actually get the comparison, but Phillips is just as good and three years younger. What point in keeping Broxton around? Let the kid play. Would put up same numbers at the least IMO and is just as good in all facets, speed, arm is better etc. I don't consider him untouchable but either way with Brinson there, no real space. I am not trading Brinson. Archer a head case up-and-down. I would shore up pen in middle innings. I think Hader will get chance to start next year with Nelson out for chunk of year. Hader-Woodruff-Anderson-Davies-??(Guerra) I might sign a guy like Chacin/Duffy in offseason to incentive laden deal. Need a 2B/leadoff guy. Try and sign someone or let Villar redeem himself - or try. Villar/Perez platoon?

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