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  1. #286
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    If you're really worried about the length of a deal for Hosmer I'm sure we could target a 4 year deal. I also think that it makes sense to acquire as much top level talent via free agency as you can (assuming you don't overpay). I compare this to the Yankees and their rebuild. They were in a rebuild but still signed a few key players that they traded at the deadline to build one of the best farm systems in baseball. Nothing says you can't flip a player if at some point you decide you have a replacement or are out of the race.

    I also want to look at where we're at vs where we need to be as a team. Assume we sign Hosmer and pick up 1.5 WAR. Also assume we upgrade CF and 2B and combined pick up another 2 WAR. I think its safe to assume that Braun will play at a level at least 1 WAR over this year. With an Improved bullped I estimate another 3 WAR. Just for arguments sake I'm estimating our starters and other starters will even out (some will go up some will go down). That means I see an easy potential to pick up 7.5 WAR next season. My estimate for this team is to finish 86-76. So, with those player adjustments next season there's no reason we can't have a team right around the 94-68 mark which would put us solidly in the playoffs with a potential division title. And I actually think these numbers are being somewhat conservative because I would expect Arcia and Santana to improve as well as our 3-5 starters (though I expect Shaw/Pina/1-2 starters to take slight hits).

  2. #287
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    Depends which WAR calc you use. Fangraphs has Thames at 1.4, which is better than 4 of hosmers 7 seasons. It appears to me the major difference in the calculations is based upon defense. Baseball reference uses drs and fangraphs uses urz. One has hosmer as a decent defender and the other has him as a poor defender. Unfortunately, defensive metrics are fairly unreliable in that sense.

    But if we just look at offense, we can use either one of fangraphs wRC+ or baseball reference OPS+, which are the park adjusted offensive numbers, hosmer had only had 2 of his 5 seasons exceed Thames current mark. Aguilar, given it's a smaller sample, is not far behind Thames either. If you were to full platoon the two of them, I think your first base offensive production would likely either be similar to or exceed hosmers offensive production. And combined they'll cost us $6 million and don't tie us down to any long term commitments. Aguilar can be non tendered after an season for the next 5 seasons and Thames has 2 years left.

    And the GG and all star appearances are basically meaningless to me. Even in is gold glove seasons, baseball reference has the most favorable rating system for his defense and they barely have him above average in defensive runs saved for first basemen. And all star appearances are strictly a popularity contest. Heck, hosmer was more deserving of an all star nod this year, which he didn't get, than last year, which he did get.
    Last edited by crewfan13; 08-29-2017 at 12:56 PM.

  3. #288
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    If you're really worried about the length of a deal for Hosmer I'm sure we could target a 4 year deal. I also think that it makes sense to acquire as much top level talent via free agency as you can (assuming you don't overpay). I compare this to the Yankees and their rebuild. They were in a rebuild but still signed a few key players that they traded at the deadline to build one of the best farm systems in baseball. Nothing says you can't flip a player if at some point you decide you have a replacement or are out of the race.

    I also want to look at where we're at vs where we need to be as a team. Assume we sign Hosmer and pick up 1.5 WAR. Also assume we upgrade CF and 2B and combined pick up another 2 WAR. I think its safe to assume that Braun will play at a level at least 1 WAR over this year. With an Improved bullped I estimate another 3 WAR. Just for arguments sake I'm estimating our starters and other starters will even out (some will go up some will go down). That means I see an easy potential to pick up 7.5 WAR next season. My estimate for this team is to finish 86-76. So, with those player adjustments next season there's no reason we can't have a team right around the 94-68 mark which would put us solidly in the playoffs with a potential division title. And I actually think these numbers are being somewhat conservative because I would expect Arcia and Santana to improve as well as our 3-5 starters (though I expect Shaw/Pina/1-2 starters to take slight hits).
    I don't see the Brewers paying Hosmer 100M. I mean he'd be OK 2-hitter, but I'd rather get an Eduardo Nunez to play 2B perhaps. He'd be good 2-hitter and is a good defender and probably won't cost near that much. There are a few relievers, Kintzler, Nicasio and maybe Neshek that would be upgrades in the middle relief. Brewers pen would be pretty legit if they get 2 of those guys. Nicasio and or Kintzler could take 7th, 8th and Knebel in the ninth.

    Me personally, I'd much rather have Hosmer but the price tag might be too much. I just don't see the Brewers giving him that kind of deal if you can get a Nunez type. Not sure who would lead off still lol but Nunez is a nice player. Also Nunez played third so if Shaw would get hurt could move him to 3rd and have Hernan or Villar play 2B depending on who all is with team.

  4. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by gopackgo87 View Post
    I don't see the Brewers paying Hosmer 100M. I mean he'd be OK 2-hitter, but I'd rather get an Eduardo Nunez to play 2B perhaps. He'd be good 2-hitter and is a good defender and probably won't cost near that much. There are a few relievers, Kintzler, Nicasio and maybe Neshek that would be upgrades in the middle relief. Brewers pen would be pretty legit if they get 2 of those guys. Nicasio and or Kintzler could take 7th, 8th and Knebel in the ninth.

    Me personally, I'd much rather have Hosmer but the price tag might be too much. I just don't see the Brewers giving him that kind of deal if you can get a Nunez type. Not sure who would lead off still lol but Nunez is a nice player. Also Nunez played third so if Shaw would get hurt could move him to 3rd and have Hernan or Villar play 2B depending on who all is with team.
    In all honesty you're most likely correct, there's no chance the Brewers pay for someone like Hosmer. I'm just saying we have the payroll flex and I think he's a major upgrade. I disagree entirely with Crewfan that he's no better than the combination of Thames/Aguilar, though he seems much higher on Thames than either you or I.

    On the subject of Thames, I don't understand how you can watch how he's performed over the last several month and be satisfied. Thames had more total bases, RBI, HR, doubles, runs scored, and almost hits in April than he's had the last 2 months combined! Outside of April he's been no better (and in many aspects worse) than Chris Carter was for us last season. If Carter wasn't good enough why is Thames?

    And I actually like Aguilar. I'd rather see him get regular playing time and see Thames as a backup. Aguilar has been serveacable against both RHP and LHP and those numbers should improve with regular playing time. My only concern with Aguilar is that when he was granted a larger role we saw his numbers fall drastically which leads me to believe (despite how most players perform) that Aguilar is better served as a backup.

  5. #290
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    In all honesty you're most likely correct, there's no chance the Brewers pay for someone like Hosmer. I'm just saying we have the payroll flex and I think he's a major upgrade. I disagree entirely with Crewfan that he's no better than the combination of Thames/Aguilar, though he seems much higher on Thames than either you or I.

    On the subject of Thames, I don't understand how you can watch how he's performed over the last several month and be satisfied. Thames had more total bases, RBI, HR, doubles, runs scored, and almost hits in April than he's had the last 2 months combined! Outside of April he's been no better (and in many aspects worse) than Chris Carter was for us last season. If Carter wasn't good enough why is Thames?

    And I actually like Aguilar. I'd rather see him get regular playing time and see Thames as a backup. Aguilar has been serveacable against both RHP and LHP and those numbers should improve with regular playing time. My only concern with Aguilar is that when he was granted a larger role we saw his numbers fall drastically which leads me to believe (despite how most players perform) that Aguilar is better served as a backup.
    Carter was going to get 10 mill and Thames cost half that is why lol. I am not the biggest Thames guy, but if Thames/Aguilar combo was the biggest worry that would mean great things IMO. So lets make it that way and Stearns likely will. I really like Stearns. Broxton in all likelihood is gone for Brinson and or Phillips. Then 2B maybe like I said the Brewers get Nunez and fix pen. This team even with my concerns for Thames would be on paper a 90-win team potentially.

  6. #291
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    Quote Originally Posted by gopackgo87 View Post
    Carter was going to get 10 mill and Thames cost half that is why lol. I am not the biggest Thames guy, but if Thames/Aguilar combo was the biggest worry that would mean great things IMO. So lets make it that way and Stearns likely will. I really like Stearns. Broxton in all likelihood is gone for Brinson and or Phillips. Then 2B maybe like I said the Brewers get Nunez and fix pen. This team even with my concerns for Thames would be on paper a 90-win team potentially.
    Carter was not going to cost us $10M considering he signed with the Yankees for just $3M. I'm perfectly fine we moved on from him, just saying that if you're okay moving past him then the same should apply to moving on from Thames.

    Bullpen should be the number 1 priority. After that I look at first base not second, mostly because I feel we can make up more wins and get a better offensive upgrade by targeting first than second and additionally because given another year and we'll have minor league options ready to play second. Now if we could get Schoop for a package of 3 minor league players I'd do that in a heartbeat. But given our current roster makeup and minor league talent I see much more future potential at first than second. My priority for offseason moves goes like this:

    1. Bullpen
    2. First Base
    3. Starting Pitching
    4. Second Base (hoping for Walker on a 2 year deal)

    And I should note that I expect the majority of pitching upgrades to come via trade. Doubt we can land more than 1-2 decent relievers and doubt we can land any starters better than what we already have.

  7. #292
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    But it's such crap to take out the good month, but leave in the bad months. From a wRC+ perspective, which is a one of the best individual offensive stats, Thames has had one elite month, 1 pretty good month, 1 just above avarage month and 2 poor months. He's currently going through a poor month. So sure, if you look at his recent month of data, he stinks. But if you arbitrarily take this month out, he's still having a good season.

    Heck, if you take out his best and worst month, he's about league average offensively. I agree Aguilar should probably get more at bats. Thames was getting more at bats against lefties than he deserved early. A true platoon where Aguilar gets a few extra starts against righties to put them closer to even in total at bats is probably the right call. But that combo, at least in my mind, had the potential to be as good as hosmer, who is very up and down. Plus it's much cheaper.

    I know we don't have a bunch of 1B in the farm. I still like erceg at 3rd and think it's possible Shaw moves to first and erceg takes over at third once Thames contract expires. That could potentially give us an elite defense.

    And what do you do with Braun when you sign hosmer or whatever other 1B you want. You've been a huge proponent of moving him to first. Signing hosmer to even a 4 year deal, which is probably the absolute minimum he'd sign for, means braun is in left for another 4 years. Are you okay with that? The Thames Aguilar combo means you can look to move Braun into 1st 2-3 years away, not 4-5.

  8. #293
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    Well in all honestly I'm perfectly happy moving Braun to first next season, selling Thames for relief help, and leaving Hosmer out of the discussion. I only moved away from that because I felt like presenting you with another option. Braun to me still makes the most sense as our future first basemen mainly because he's here for such a long time and I think it would give him the ability to sacrifice speed for muscle.

    Hosmer is option B for me. I'd still be excited if we made that move.

    I would not be happy if we moved into next season with Thames as our starting first basemen however. Why can't I take away his first month? Based on his production every other month it looks to me like that first month was a fluke. What other month would you consider him to have been above average? The only statistic where that follows is OBP. Outside of April his SLG is barely above .400 (not even top 20 among MLB first basemen) his BA would be below .210 which wouldn't finish inside the top 25, his RBI numbers aren't even top 25 if you include April (the month in which he had basically twice as many RBI as any other), even his OBP is barely mediocre even if you include April...

    Bottom line, Thames has been garbage since April. He has not had a single month at or above average since then. Right now I think I'm safe in saying that there are at least 20 first basemen I'd rather have than Thames (including Aguilar).

  9. #294
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    Like I said, the stat I was using is wRC+. At a high level, what that metric measures every result of an at bat (single, double, walk etc) correlates to odds of scoring a run. The nice part of wRC+ is that it adjusts for league and parks. So it factors in that Thames plays at a favorable stadium and hosmer plays at an unfavorable stadium. Not that it matters in this case per se, but it also adjusts for league time. So it allows you to compare ted Williams to mike trout.

    It also adjusts so that the league average for that year will allows be 0. So instead of having to look a bunch of guys up to understand what a good number is, you can instantly understand what a guys numbers are. Basically, if he's at or around 100, he's League average offensively. If he's at 120, it means he's 20% better than league average. If he's at 80, hes 20% below league average.

    By month, Thames wRC+ goes 217 for march/April, 106 for may, 68 for June, 123 for July, and 74 for August. Obviously march/April was incredible. May was about average. June and August were awful and July was pretty good. So yea, if you take out his best month, then he's probably below average. But why take out his best month and not his worst? If you take out June and march/April, he's probably above average, or right around average.

  10. #295
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    For what it's worth, mlb.com did a top free agent bit. They estimated hosmer at 6 or 7 years at $20 mill per year.

  11. #296
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    I believe Carter had a 10-mil team option which the Brewers declined IIRC. THames hit .284 one month I think which crewfan is referring to. Thames has been pretty poor since April. Especially since mid-May. I wouldn't mind if basically him and Aguilar split ABs though. If you can find another guy without overpaying great. If you get a guy like Nunez and add young guys like Brinson and Phillips I like the Brewers chances next year....but watch the starters that made strides will be hurt or stink in 2018 lol

  12. #297
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Like I said, the stat I was using is wRC+. At a high level, what that metric measures every result of an at bat (single, double, walk etc) correlates to odds of scoring a run. The nice part of wRC+ is that it adjusts for league and parks. So it factors in that Thames plays at a favorable stadium and hosmer plays at an unfavorable stadium. Not that it matters in this case per se, but it also adjusts for league time. So it allows you to compare ted Williams to mike trout.

    It also adjusts so that the league average for that year will allows be 0. So instead of having to look a bunch of guys up to understand what a good number is, you can instantly understand what a guys numbers are. Basically, if he's at or around 100, he's League average offensively. If he's at 120, it means he's 20% better than league average. If he's at 80, hes 20% below league average.

    By month, Thames wRC+ goes 217 for march/April, 106 for may, 68 for June, 123 for July, and 74 for August. Obviously march/April was incredible. May was about average. June and August were awful and July was pretty good. So yea, if you take out his best month, then he's probably below average. But why take out his best month and not his worst? If you take out June and march/April, he's probably above average, or right around average.
    So first, I factor out April because it was his first month back in the MLB. Teams clearly took a while to develop a scouting report on him. Once they did he's been bad ever since. If you swap his June and April for example I wouldn't be as quick to discount it as a fluke.

    And there are problems with just looking at wRC+ when it comes to Thames. First, it largely factors in runs scored per PA. Definetely an advantage that Thames has been in the 2-hole the majority of the season. His runs per PA is actually good. You're also saying that 100 is average but that's across all MLB positions. 100 is not average for a first basemen. A wRC+ of 100 for 1B wouldn't put you in the top 25.

    Again I'll refer you to last season, if wRC+ is such an important statistic why is it that Chris Carter who had nearly identical such stats last season as Thames is having this season couldn't get any sort of a decent contract? Because no one saw any value in what he was doing. He only generated a $3M contract from NY and if you're happy with Thames we could have just as easily brought Carter back for less than we're paying Thames!

  13. #298
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    Quote Originally Posted by gopackgo87 View Post
    I believe Carter had a 10-mil team option which the Brewers declined IIRC. THames hit .284 one month I think which crewfan is referring to. Thames has been pretty poor since April. Especially since mid-May. I wouldn't mind if basically him and Aguilar split ABs though. If you can find another guy without overpaying great. If you get a guy like Nunez and add young guys like Brinson and Phillips I like the Brewers chances next year....but watch the starters that made strides will be hurt or stink in 2018 lol
    Thames is fine for what this team is, a rebuild. He's not the right option if we plan on truly contending for a WS. We need someone better.

    With Carter who could have declined the option and still signed him for the same contract the Yankess did.

  14. #299
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    So first, I factor out April because it was his first month back in the MLB. Teams clearly took a while to develop a scouting report on him. Once they did he's been bad ever since. If you swap his June and April for example I wouldn't be as quick to discount it as a fluke.

    And there are problems with just looking at wRC+ when it comes to Thames. First, it largely factors in runs scored per PA. Definetely an advantage that Thames has been in the 2-hole the majority of the season. His runs per PA is actually good. You're also saying that 100 is average but that's across all MLB positions. 100 is not average for a first basemen. A wRC+ of 100 for 1B wouldn't put you in the top 25.

    Again I'll refer you to last season, if wRC+ is such an important statistic why is it that Chris Carter who had nearly identical such stats last season as Thames is having this season couldn't get any sort of a decent contract? Because no one saw any value in what he was doing. He only generated a $3M contract from NY and if you're happy with Thames we could have just as easily brought Carter back for less than we're paying Thames!
    wRC+ does not factor runs scored really at all. The primary metric for wRC+ is wOBA. What wOBa measures is the actual impact across the league of each at bat. So across every at bat in the entire league, a double is worth a certain amount, a single is worth a certain amount and so on. Basically, it's similar to slugging percentage, but instead of arbitrarily deciding that a double is worth 2 singles, wOBA actually calculates across the league how much more valuable a double is than a single in terms of team run expectancy. And if also factors in walks and HBP, which slugging does not.

    All in all, wOBA is really similar to OPS, only it actually factors each hit to its "proper value" instead of accepting that a homer is worth the same as 4 singles like the slugging portion of ops does. It also more properly values walks. In ops, a single is essentially worth twice as much as a walk. Walks aren't included in slugging percentage and singles are. Both are included in obp, so a single is "double counted" in ops (counted in obp and slugging), whereas a walk is only single counted (obp only). So wOBA looks to put a value on each individual at bat result by determining across the entire league what rash result is worth in run expectancy. And wOBA is the primary metric in wRC+.

    So when looking at wRC+, Thames runs are not calculated at all. It calculates how the result of each at bat impacts our run expectancy based upon thousands of scenarios through the entire league, regardless of situation.

    That being said, you're correct that 100 is position wide. At first base, league average is closer to 115 or so. If you want that to be a metric, then Eric hosmer has been over 115 in wRC+ in 3 of his 7 years. Granted he has been over that mark in 2 of the last 4 seasons, he's not neccesarily blowing it away.

    My point isn't that Thames is going to be an all star. My point is that he's serviceable. To your point, we probably need one more high WAR guy. Most good teams have 2-3 position players in the 3-5+ WAR range. This year, we have Shaw and that's it. And in all honesty, it's not out of the question that Shaw could actually regress some and that this could have been a career year for him. But we probably do need guys to step up and get closer to that 3 WAR range. I guess my biggest beef is that you seem to be set on that having to come from 1st base. To me, there's not a ton of great options available at first base. The one that is, hosmer, is a wild card for me. He's been inconsistent and for his career is just as likely to post a 3 WAR season as he is to post a 1 or less WAR season. To me, that's not worth the money. I'd rather stick with Thames and Aguilar and try to upgrade elsewhere. And that upgrade probably isn't via the free agent market, it will probably have to come via trade or internal improvement.

  15. #300
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    Quote Originally Posted by twellner9 View Post
    So first, I factor out April because it was his first month back in the MLB. Teams clearly took a while to develop a scouting report on him. Once they did he's been bad ever since. If you swap his June and April for example I wouldn't be as quick to discount it as a fluke.

    And there are problems with just looking at wRC+ when it comes to Thames. First, it largely factors in runs scored per PA. Definetely an advantage that Thames has been in the 2-hole the majority of the season. His runs per PA is actually good. You're also saying that 100 is average but that's across all MLB positions. 100 is not average for a first basemen. A wRC+ of 100 for 1B wouldn't put you in the top 25.

    Again I'll refer you to last season, if wRC+ is such an important statistic why is it that Chris Carter who had nearly identical such stats last season as Thames is having this season couldn't get any sort of a decent contract? Because no one saw any value in what he was doing. He only generated a $3M contract from NY and if you're happy with Thames we could have just as easily brought Carter back for less than we're paying Thames!
    The Brewers didn't know that. They didn't know Carter wouldn't fetch anything on the market. They signed Thames early in the offseason and thought Carter would fetch at least that even if it was a one or two-year pact. Easy to look back now and say that but Brewers had no idea Carter wouldn't get squat after the year he had.

    I disagree. Thames can be the first baseman if he's a platoon type maybe starting 100 games. I don't really like Thames but a 30 HR guy seems like it would be OK if that's the weakest offensive player. I wouldn't mind dealing him for a controllable arm but not sure Jesus can handle 140 games at first. He has started to struggle with consistent ABs which is odd. He plays better when it's like 3 games a week it seems.

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