Roster Update/Discussion #3

[Hawkeye15]

I wrote a long reply to you with stats and figures but mistakenly browsed for something else before posting it so I will give you a short summary:
1) Ingram, in fact, regressed last season in every advanced category from the previous year and had similar stats to Wiggins(likely within a 2-sigma band of the average distribution for NBA players), however he is 56 on the list and Wiggins "****ing sucks". I am just claiming that they are either both good, both average or both suck as they are practically the same exact player, even though I concede that at least there is hope that Ingram will be better in the future and Wiggins is what he is.
2) Wiggins is a league average starter by every metric available(basic, advanced, etc). The only things that are wrong with Wiggins(outside of him being Wiggins, a.k.a. no drive, no effort, etc) is the money he is paid, the time he takes away from other players developing and where he was picked. I will argue to death that if Wiggins was getting paid like RoCo, he would be an asset(likely off the bench) rather the detriment you make him out to be.

I am tired of this conversation to be honest. I don't like Wiggins. In fact I despise him for what he can be but isn't, but I am tying to be objective here. Wiggins is not a scrub that you make him out to be.

You can't find stats that paint Wiggins in even an average light. They don't exist. But yes, I am tired too. He sucks, and will always suck. He doesn't have "it", and settles on his talent.

Until he is gone I will vent here and there, because he is eating minutes and touches better used elsewhere.

Fyi, those rankings are for upcoming. People are done waiting on Wiggins, hence why he slipped out.

[Hawkeye15]

It is subjective, as with any non-statistical list - but I personally don't think Wiggins is in the top 100. I'm surprised you flagged Covington's name - while Wiggins has far more natural talent, it's not even close if you're calculating player value, imo. Again, it's all subjective and personal opinion, but if I'm doing a 'best of' list, I'm doing the list in order of players who are going to help my team win.

Wiggins natural talent and $$ are what make him a whipping boy. He should be better. Simple as that. But he isn't. Entitled kid with 0 ability to look at himself subjectively. And everyone despises seeing a guy rake in bazillions while not even applying himself to the fullest, because most would kill for the opportunity.

[Hawkeye15]

I am curious what advanced metrics show him as a league average starter because almost all of them that I see show him as well below average. You are correct though it is subjective. I think Wiggins has top 100 talent, but agree with Hawk and others that right now he is not a top 100 player.

There are literally 0 stats that show Wiggins as a league average starter. The thing is, all those VORP, BPM, PER, etc, benchmark against league average. Yet Wiggins is below average in every.single.one.

[Hawkeye15]

Watching last night, and I see Culver and Okogie, and even Graham, sitting in the corner watching our offense. Wouldn't we be better served using Wiggins touches to develop these guys? Idk, I imagine Rosas finds a way to trade Wiggins but he has stunted our potential as much as any player we have ever had. I can't stand him.

[Oefarmy2005]

Watching last night, and I see Culver and Okogie, and even Graham, sitting in the corner watching our offense. Wouldn't we be better served using Wiggins touches to develop these guys? Idk, I imagine Rosas finds a way to trade Wiggins but he has stunted our potential as much as any player we have ever had. I can't stand him.

Whatever. I am giving him one more year, while I would prefer that he came off the bench. I was screaming for Saunders to take him out all of the fourth quarter and put Okogie in instead. We would have won the game in regulation, plain and simple and Wiggins was atrocious(shooting). On the positive side, Wiggins has been more engaged, especially defensively in the preseason and this first game. I am not arguing, I think we are a better team without the Wiggins from last night. If he was getting paid $10 million and was relegated to a bench role scorer, he would be fine. I am all for trading Wiggins, I just don't want to part with 2 first rounders(and that's what I think it would take) to get rid of him. I would love to swap him and say Teague for CP3, but as bad as Paul's contract is, I still don't think OKC would do it.

[ellington19]

Wiggins natural talent and $$ are what make him a whipping boy. He should be better. Simple as that. But he isn't. Entitled kid with 0 ability to look at himself subjectively. And everyone despises seeing a guy rake in bazillions while not even applying himself to the fullest, because most would kill for the opportunity.

For sure. With the talent thing, take Graham as an example - if Wiggins put in the effort that Graham puts in on a nightly basis, I dare say he'd be a top 10-15 player. I really like Graham, I appreciate what he does and how he goes about it and I'm really happy we have him on this team - but he's not a great basketballer. He's a solid defender, who again, gets by on pure, 100% effort. To put turn it the other way, if Graham played with the effort of Wiggins, he wouldn't survive in the G League.

You are spot on though - Wig's talent combined with that contract just make it hard to like him as a fan when he comes out and looks disinterested. We come home from our 9-5 jobs (most of us) we work to make ends meet to watch this guy on $30m come in and look like he doesn't give a ****.

Anyway, I too am getting sick of ranting about him. Last night proved he's never going to change - and the fact he's throwing up 27 shots shows Rosas & Saunders were talking out of there collective ***es too, he's never going to be benched as long as he's here, irrelevant of all the long 2's and no defence.

[Hawkeye15]

Whatever. I am giving him one more year, while I would prefer that he came off the bench. I was screaming for Saunders to take him out all of the fourth quarter and put Okogie in instead. We would have won the game in regulation, plain and simple and Wiggins was atrocious(shooting). On the positive side, Wiggins has been more engaged, especially defensively in the preseason and this first game. I am not arguing, I think we are a better team without the Wiggins from last night. If he was getting paid $10 million and was relegated to a bench role scorer, he would be fine. I am all for trading Wiggins, I just don't want to part with 2 first rounders(and that's what I think it would take) to get rid of him. I would love to swap him and say Teague for CP3, but as bad as Paul's contract is, I still don't think OKC would do it.

I will agree at a $10 million deal and a bench role, I would take Wiggins. Unfortunately we have so much invested in him we continue to try and shove a round peg into a square hole with him. I imagine he is traded in the next 9 months so until then we can suffer. What's another 9 months when we have most of 30 years behind us already.

[Oefarmy2005]

I will agree at a $10 million deal and a bench role, I would take Wiggins. Unfortunately we have so much invested in him we continue to try and shove a round peg into a square hole with him. I imagine he is traded in the next 9 months so until then we can suffer. What's another 9 months when we have most of 30 years behind us already.

There is this site called five-fourty-eight that has a model setup for player projections, and I personally think it's quite good(I think I could do better, I just don't have the free time to do it right now). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...r-projections/

What is special about them is besides doing advanced metrics, they also do similarity scores to other players in history to do their projections(granted it's difficult across different eras of the NBA game). I think that they are spot on for all of the Wolves players(and of-course most other players I've checked). They claim that Wiggins is an average starter(with the evaluation not being biased on the salary he makes), but is clearly vastly overpaid. I tend to agree. They have upgraded their evaluation system this year and Obi-Wan Okogie went from an "Up-and-comer" to a future All Star in their projections. While I wouldn't go that far, he is definitely on the right trend.

[Hawkeye15]

There is this site called five-fourty-eight that has a model setup for player projections, and I personally think it's quite good(I think I could do better, I just don't have the free time to do it right now). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...r-projections/

What is special about them is besides doing advanced metrics, they also do similarity scores to other players in history to do their projections(granted it's difficult across different eras of the NBA game). I think that they are spot on for all of the Wolves players(and of-course most other players I've checked). They claim that Wiggins is an average starter(with the evaluation not being biased on the salary he makes), but is clearly vastly overpaid. I tend to agree. They have upgraded their evaluation system this year and Obi-Wan Okogie went from an "Up-and-comer" to a future All Star in their projections. While I wouldn't go that far, he is definitely on the right trend.

Just read it. 2 things:

I don't agree he is an average starter in his current role.

Dude, Ron Mercer and Clarence Wetherspoon are 2 of his comparables. You don't pay guys like that $26,000,000 year. They computed an annual average of $11.4 million per year, so like I said, at $10 million and a bench role I like him. But we both know they won't do that.

[silverson]

The problem I find with this is the comparison to past players when the game has changed so much.
10 years ago and Wiggins might have been a sought after player.
To me he is like Spreewel. Talented but his mindset is not right.
To connect it to the other discussion I have with Hawk in the other thread he is like Crawford with less Bball IQ. And it's not like Crawford excels at that

[Hawkeye15]

The problem I find with this is the comparison to past players when the game has changed so much.
10 years ago and Wiggins might have been a sought after player.
To me he is like Spreewel. Talented but his mindset is not right.
To connect it to the other discussion I have with Hawk in the other thread he is like Crawford with less Bball IQ. And it's not like Crawford excels at that

It's his effort level too. The comparisons are just wings with similar scores is all. If you look at his, they are a bunch of good role players who weren't asked to be focal points, rather complementary players with a role. Which I think works for Wiggins. What doesn't work is leading our team in shot attempts and playing 35 mpg without a leash while making 23-25% of the cap.

[Oefarmy2005]

I wonder, if Portland keeps loosing games, could Dame become available and how much would it take to get him? I expect he has another 3-4 solid years in him.

[Oefarmy2005]

I really hope Okogie tightens up his handle like Wiggins did this offseason, because the guy has potential to be a really, really good player. I know his shooting percentage hasn't been great, but he has a really nice clean stroke. And offcourse, you all remember that I am huge fan of KBD(thought it was a phenomenal 2nd round pick) and he is definitely a rotation player in the league.

[silverson]

I agree with you Oefarmy. On both players.
I was also thinking about Dieng. I really like him as a player and locker room presence. If it wasn't for his contract

[Hawkeye15]

I really hope Okogie tightens up his handle like Wiggins did this offseason, because the guy has potential to be a really, really good player. I know his shooting percentage hasn't been great, but he has a really nice clean stroke. And offcourse, you all remember that I am huge fan of KBD(thought it was a phenomenal 2nd round pick) and he is definitely a rotation player in the league.

Totally agree man. Hell Okogie's development is one reason I am so ready to let Cov go right now in a deal. Josh can be a good starter down the line. KDB is for sure a rotation player with his ability to stretch the floor, and we have him so cheap.