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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    11,542

    2016 Individual Pirates Prediction Contest

    This year I am holding a Pirates prediction contest for any member of PSD or PSF who wants to participate. The contest consists of 21 questions asking you to predict how well a Pirates player or the Pirates as a whole will do in regards to a particular stat (a theoretical perfect score is 200 points).

    All questions are worth 10 points unless otherwise noted and there is a consistent drop off per a certain amount you miss a question by. For example if a question asks you to predict how man home runs a player will hit and your guess is 15 and he ends up hitting 22 you missed by 7 so at one point per HR you would receive 3 points credit on a standard 10 point question. No matter how poorly your guess may be you can not receive negative points.

    I have broken the questions down into 5 categories below, if you want to participate please answer all questions. The deadline to submit your answers is before first pitch on Opening Day. I reserve the right to pull a question prior to that point should any injuries arise in Spring Training.

    Please note this competition is completely separate from the inter-forum team competition I have been discussing and everyone whether you signed up for that competition or not is allowed to participate.

    Playing Time (50 points)
    1. How many PA will Josh Bell have this season? (1 point deduction per 5 PA)
    2. How many PA will David Freese have this season? (8 points; 1 point deduction per 5 PA)
    3. How many PA will Sean Rodriguez have this season? (7 points; 1 point deduction per 5 PA)
    4. How many IP will Tyler Glasnow have this season? (1 point deduction per 3 IP)
    5. How many IP will Jameson Taillon have this season? (8 points; 1 point deduction per 3 IP)
    6. How many IP will Juan Nicasio have this season? (7 points; 1 point deduction per 3 IP)

    Offensive Performance (50 points)
    7. How many RBIs will Jung-ho Kang have this season? (1 point deduction per RBI)
    8. How many home runs will Andrew McCutchen hit this season? (1 point deduction per HR)
    9. How many stolen bases will Starling Marte have this season? (1 point deduction per SB)
    10. What will Josh Harrison’s batting average be this season? (1 point deduction per .003)
    11. What will Gregory Polanco’s OBP be this season? (1 point deduction per .003)

    Pitching Performance (50 points)
    12. How many strikeouts will Gerrit Cole record this season? (1 point deduction per 3 Ks)
    13. How many strikeouts will Francisco Liriano have this season? (1 point deduction per 3 Ks)
    14. What will Jon Niese’s ERA be this season? (1 point deduction per 0.05)
    15. What will Ryan Vogelsong’s ERA be this season? (1 point deduction per 0.05 of ERA)
    16. How many saves will Mark Melancon have this season? (1 point deduction per save)

    Defensive Performance (20 points)
    17. How many errors will John Jaso commit this season? (1 point deduction per error)
    18. How many runners will Francisco Cervelli catch stealing? (1 point per runner CS)

    Team Performance (30 points)
    19. How many games will the Pirates win this season? (20 points; 2 point deduction per win)
    20. How many home runs will the Pirates as a team hit? (1 point deduction per 2 home runs)
    21. How many runs will the Pirates score? (tiebreaker; no points awarded)
    Last edited by burgh_fan66; 03-21-2016 at 02:41 PM.
    Follow Me On Twitter: @battling_bucs

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    11,542
    1. 240
    2. 330
    3. 150
    4. 90
    5. 60
    6. 110

    7. 73
    8. 28
    9. 32
    10. .277
    11. .338

    12. 175
    13. 180
    14. 3.59
    15. 4.37
    16. 39

    17. 11
    18. 26

    19. 91
    20. 131
    21. 684
    Follow Me On Twitter: @battling_bucs

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    11,542
    I'm going to push the deadline for submissions back until first pitch of the second game of the year. This will give us a little more than two days so I'm hoping this gives us time to get a few more participants.
    Follow Me On Twitter: @battling_bucs

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Pittsburgh
    Posts
    57,381
    1. 220
    2. 315
    3. 165
    4. 95
    5. 55
    6. 112

    7. 75
    8. 30
    9. 28
    10. .268
    11. .342

    12. 168
    13. 185
    14. 3.55
    15. 4.35
    16. 33

    17. 10
    18. 28

    19. 92
    20. 135
    21. 680






  5. #5
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Pittsbruh
    Posts
    70,392
    Playing Time (50 points)
    1. 100
    2. 190
    3. 135
    4. 60
    5. 0
    6. 145

    Offensive Performance (50 points)
    7. 75
    8. 27
    9. 28
    10. .288
    11. .325

    Pitching Performance (50 points)
    12. 200
    13. 200
    14. 4.01
    15. 4.35
    16. 31

    Defensive Performance (20 points)
    17. 20
    18. 32

    Team Performance (30 points)
    19. 89
    20. 125
    21. 700

    Thanks for doing these, as always. The few of us that do it do appreciate it
    this my sig

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    11,542
    Prorating current results out over the course of an entire 162 game season I come up with a current standings of

    IPF ... 59 (PSF)
    slugermatt .. 43 (PSF)
    ShayP ... 39 (PSF)
    burgh_fan ... 38
    jrm ... 35
    jleisle ... 33 (PSF)
    ManRam ... 28
    Follow Me On Twitter: @battling_bucs

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    11,542
    Updated Standings

    IPF ... 38 (PSF)
    jrm ... 35
    ShayP ... 27 (PSF)
    ManRam ... 27
    burgh_fan ... 27
    sluggermatt ... 22 (PSF)
    jleisle ... 17 (PSF)

    * The projections account for Melancon, Liriano and Niese being no longer with the team so their numbers are now set
    Follow Me On Twitter: @battling_bucs

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Pittsburgh
    Posts
    57,381
    Ya 2nd md place

    Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk






  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    11,542
    Contest coming to a close so I thought it would be a good time to update the projected standings

    ManRam ... 50
    IPF ... 47
    ShayP ... 46
    jleisle ... 39
    jrm ... 38
    burgh_fan ... 37
    sluggermatt ... 33

    For fun if you take all the most optimistic projections the score would be 22 but if you are feeling pessimistic the score would be a group leading 63.
    Follow Me On Twitter: @battling_bucs

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    11,542
    Season is over so its time to post the final standings. First I'll take a look at the individual questions.

    1. Josh Bell PA? ... 152. No one received any points on this question with the closest guess being 100 (you had to be within 49 to receive credit so it was close).

    2. David Freese PA? ... 492. Again no points awarded as this was far and beyond what anyone predicted. The high guess was 330 which fell well outside the 39 PA range available for points to be awarded.

    3. Sean Rodriguez PA? ... 342. Amazingly we went 0 for 3 as a group failing to record a single point for any of the PA questions. Rodriguez went well beyond our top guess of 268.

    4. Tyler Glasnow IP? ... 23.1. This was below what anyone predicted but we finally have our first points of the contest as IPF receives 5 with a low guess of 40.

    5. Jameson Taillion IP? ... 104. Our high guess was 60 so yeah no points awarded here

    6. Juan Nicasio IP? ... 118. A couple of good guesses here as jrm and myself each received 5 points for our guesses of 112 and 110 respectively.

    7. Kang RBI? ... 62. Now we are getting to the point where the points start to be racked up. Best guess belongs to IPF at 65 which scores him 7. Also receiving points are jleisle and sluggermatt who get 2 a piece.

    8. Cutch HR? ... 24. One of the easiest questions on the board as everyone received points. High score belongs to jleisle who at 25 was within one and therefore received 9 points. ManRam and IPF each received 7, myself and ShayP each got 6 points and everyone else got 4.

    9. Marte SB? ... 47. A total which went beyond our highest guess but a few still managed to pull in a few points. Best guess belongs to sluggermatt at 41 but Shayp was right there at 40 they received 4 and 3 points respectively.

    10. Harrison AVG? ... .283. By far the easiest question on the board everyone receives points and we get 2 10s (there are only 3 total). The two 10s belong to ShayP and sluggermatt with ShayP technically being the closest at .285 but .280 isn't too far behind. ManRam and myself each received 9 points. jleisle and jrm each get 6 which leaves IPF with the worst guess but still a score of 4.

    11. Polanco OBP? ... .323. Another fairly easy question with 6 of the 7 of us receiving points. ManRam at .325 pulls off our third and final 10. jleisle gets 8 while IPF and Shayp each get 6. I receive 5 and ManRam gets 4.

    12. Cole Ks? ... 98. None of us foresaw him pitching so little as our low guess was 168.

    13. Liriano Ks? ... 116. For the record this only includes his time with the Pirates. Obviously no one saw him being dealt so a low of 175 gets us nowhere.

    14. Niese ERA? ... 4.91. Again this pertains to his time with the Pirates only. No one predicted Niese to be anywhere near this bad so even a high ERA of 4.01 receives no points.

    15. Vogelsong ERA? ... 4.81. Again he sores past everyone's guess but ShayP did go all the way up to 4.65 so he manages to pull in 7 points. I get 2 while jrm and ManRam pull in 1 a piece.

    16. Melancon SV? ... 30. Once again this is with the Pirates only. We actually have some pretty good guesses with ManRam pulling in 9 points with a guess of 31 and jrm pulling in 7 with a guess of 33. I manage to scrape in one point with a guess of 39.

    17. Jaso Errors? ... 5. Jaso really did take to the 1B position quite well and only IPF foresaw that with a prediction of 4 which scores him 9 points so congratulations are in order there. jrm and jleisle each received 5 points and myself and ShayP each get 4.

    18. Cervelli CS? ... 16. For 6 of this Cervelli fell well short of our expectations but sluggermatt obviously had some sort of vision as his guess of 14 was good enough to score 8 points while no one else received any.

    19. Pirates Wins? ... 78. I don't need to say this total is disappointing. It is way under what any of predicted but I let a pretty wide window where you only had to be within 9 to receive any points and we did have one guess within that range. IPF's low guess of 86 is good enough to score him 4 points.

    20. Pirates HR? ... 153. Aside from sluggermatt who apparently thought the Pirates were just going to mash this year (200 HR) the Pirates surpassed our exceptions. Still ShayP high guess of 142 nets him 5 points. jrm and IPF each add one to their totals.

    21. Pirates Runs? ... 729. No points awarded here as this is just a tie breaker (for the record there were no ties) but the best guess belongs to ShayP at 701 who had the high guess meaning we all undersold the offense a bit.

    Final Standings
    IPF ... 43
    ShayP ... 41
    ManRam ... 36
    jrm ... 33
    burgh_fan ... 32
    jleisle ... 30
    sluggermatt ... 28

    So I suppose congratulations are in order for IPF our 2016 Prediction champion!!!

    Also a congrats to ManRam who has defended his PSD crown.
    Follow Me On Twitter: @battling_bucs

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